Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -4 on 1/6 to -31 on 2/4, with a daily change of -12 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 6 on 1/6 to -11 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -14 on 1/6 to -61 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The 03 - 06 spread changed from 10 on 1/6 to 2 on 2/4, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 04 - 06 spread was 8 on 2/4, with no daily change [3] - The 06 - 09 spread changed from 15 on 1/6 to 23 on 2/4, with a daily change of 4 [3] 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract price was 3361 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 52 [3] - The trading volume was 282,920 on 2/4, a decrease of 20,689 (-33%) compared to the previous day [3] - The open interest was 387,150 on 2/4, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous day [3] - The combined volume was 13,580 on 2/4, with no change [3] 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price was 67.0 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 0.8 [3] - Jingbo's asphalt price was 3260 on 2/4, with no change [3] - The non-Jingbo Shandong asphalt price was 3250 on 2/4, an increase of 40 [3] - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price was 3350 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3300 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 405 on 2/4, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 20 均 线附近。成交量较昨日增 44.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12546 手；日内最高 1234， 最低 1201，收盘 1229，（较昨结算价）涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 2.08%。 2，现货市场：低位震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，徐州丰成停车检修，产量窄 幅下移。下游需求不温不火，保持随用随采。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环比下降 3.34%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

成文日期：20260130 报告周期:周报 研究品种:尿素 研究分析师：武吟秋（从业资格号：F03087154;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018989) 成長表開設 数据来源：Wind 2 影响因素 当周日均产量 20.78 万吨（1 月 28 日数据），同比增 12.54%，开工率 82.08%（气头企业复产预期增强），供应充裕格 局未改；注册仓单从 1.3274 万张降至 1.269 万张，显示部分现货流 入消费端，缓解库存压力。 农业备肥进入尾声，北方冬小麦追肥需求释放，山东、河南现 货价格周涨 10-20 元；但工业需求疲软，复合肥开工回升有限，产 销率回落至 60%-90%，高价接货意愿不足。 1 期货市场 本周主力合约收盘 1790 元/吨，周涨 0.51%，价格区间 1772- 1830 元/吨，振幅 3.26%；成交量 98.05 万手，成交额 352.94 亿 元。基差收窄，期现结构边际改善。 图 1：尿素 ur2605 日线 3 行情展望 期价或维持区间震荡，核心支撑来自农业刚需释放及成本端煤 价回升,压力源于供应高位与节前累库预期。需重点关注气头企业 复产进度、中下游节前补库力度及港口库存 ...

研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/2 8 801 2305 2290 2370 - 2275 2385 269 322 8 -55 - 2026/01/2 9 801 2300 2290 2375 - 2275 2385 271 322 -4 -55 - 2026/01/3 0 801 2275 2280 2378 - 2275 2385 268 323 -4 -55 - 2026/02/0 2 801 2237 2228 2385 - 2275 2385 268 323 -39 -37 - 2026/02/0 3 801 2225 2238 2385 - 2330 2385 - - - -45 - 日度变化 0 -12 10 0 - 55 0 - - - -8 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MT ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 4, 2026 [4] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - No information provided Group 4: Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -52 on 12/31 to -19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -40 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from -82 on 12/31 to -9 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -122 on 12/31 to -29 on 2/3, with a daily change of -50 [3] - 03 - 06 spread changed from -23 on 12/31 to 5 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - 04 - 06 spread changed from -20 on 12/31 to 8 on 2/3, with a daily change of 8 [3] - 06 - 09 spread changed from 5 on 12/31 to 19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -6 [3] Group 5: Futures Contracts - BU main contract price was 3022 on 12/31 and 3309 on 2/3, with a daily change of 10 [3] - Trading volume decreased from 311,277 on 12/31 to 303,609 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 242,358 [3] - Open interest decreased from 426,006 on 12/31 to 381,498 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 16,182 [3] - Aggregate contracts remained at 13,580 from 1/28 to 2/3 [3] Group 6: Spot Prices - Brent crude price was 66.5 on 1/28 and 66.1 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 4.6 [3] - Jingbo spot price was 2980 on 12/31 and 3260 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 20 [3] - Shandong (non-Jingbo) spot price was 2890 on 12/31 and 3210 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 30 [3] - Zhenjiang warehouse spot price remained at 3300 from 2/2 to 2/3 [3] - Foshan warehouse spot price was 2900 on 12/31 and 3250 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 40 [3] Group 7: Profits - Asphalt Ma Rui profit was N/A on 12/31 and 440 on 2/3, a daily increase of 199 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The geopolitical risk is not over, and the rising external prices support the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the domestic downstream profit is poor, and there is inventory reduction before the festival, so the support for spot prices is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is slightly on the high side, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold wave in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different degrees of change. The daily change on February 3 compared with the previous day was -10 for South China LPG, 0 for East China LPG and Shandong LPG, -3 for propane CFR South China, -8 for propane CIF Japan, 2 for CP forecast contract price, -10 for Shandong ether - after carbon four, -20 for Shandong alkylated oil, 18 for paper import profit, and -39 for the main basis [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Monday, the market fluctuated upward. The cheapest spot, Shanghai Gaoqiao, was 4120, with a basis of -89. The 03 - 04 spread was -260 (+24), the 03 - 05 spread was -176 (+14), and the 04 - 05 spread was 84 (-10). The warehouse receipts of Wuchan Zhongda Chemical increased by 1000 [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16), and the 03 - 05 spread was -203 (-8). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (-31), with 31 fewer from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external relationship weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold wave and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the Iran conflict continues to escalate, MTO shows resistance with some plants shutting down. Methanol faces difficulties moving up or down, with MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options seems appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is growing, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is expected to face significant pressure in the future [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. The overall inventory is neutral, and the balance sheet for 05 and later is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook remains poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2267 to 2237, a decrease of 38 [2]. - Market Situation: The Iran conflict affects the market. MTO plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi are shutting down or planning to reduce production, waiting for the situation in Iran to normalize [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 700 (except for February 2 when it was not provided). The华北LL price dropped from 6740 to 6730, a decrease of 100 [2]. - Market Situation: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changing regional price differences. The oil - and coal - based production profits are deteriorating, and the supply is expected to increase in the future [2]. PP - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the山东丙烯 price remained stable at 6370. The华东PP price dropped from 6670 to 6615, a decrease of 55 [3]. - Market Situation: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has decreased slightly. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans have increased, and the overall inventory is neutral [3]. PVC - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the西北电石 price increased from 2450 to 2550, an increase of 50. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4720 to 4830, an increase of 50 [4][5]. - Market Situation: The basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low. The short - term seasonal production recovery is underway, and long - term real - estate demand is weak [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on February 3, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the basis of power coal was - 116.4 on January 27, - 111.4 on January 28, and - 109.4 from January 29 to February 2 [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 during the period from January 27 to February 2, 2026 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, the basis on February 2, 2026 was 127.38; for INE crude oil, the basis on February 2, 2026 was - 3.68; for crude oil/asphalt, the basis on February 2, 2026 was 0.1392 [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of some energy commodities was also provided, such as 99.68 for a certain ratio on February 2, 2026 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: For rubber, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 485, the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 625, and the 9 - month minus 5 - month spread was - 140; for methanol, the corresponding spreads were - 64, - 45, and 19; for PTA, they were 40, 38, and - 2; for LLDPE, they were - 35, 3, and 38; for PVC, they were - 218, - 101, and 117; for PP, they were 46, 72, and 26; for ethylene glycol, they were - 167, - 76, and 91 [9]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For example, on February 2, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1889, the LLDPE - PP spread was 171, the PP - PVC spread was 1718, and the PP - 3*methanol spread was - 93 [9]. - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of rubber was - 80, methanol was - 4.5, PTA was - 72, LLDPE was 122, PVC was - 254, and PP was 76 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 82, the 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month spread was - 33, and the 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spread was 49; for iron ore, the corresponding spreads were 29, 12, and - 17; for coke, they were - 149, - 82, and 67; for coking coal, they were - 248.5, - 172, and 76.5 [19]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: On February 2, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.96, the rebar/coke ratio was 18132.1, the coke/coking coal ratio was 4690, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was - 161 [19]. - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of rebar was 112, iron ore was 4, coke was - 175.5, and coking coal was 38.5 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of copper was 1460, aluminum was 635, zinc was 455, lead was - 70, nickel was 10760, and tin was 850 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Ascending/Descending Premium**: On February 2, 2026, the LME ascending/descending premium of copper was (59.17), aluminum was (22.32), zinc was (5.35), lead was (47.99), nickel was (218.73), and tin was (300.00) [34]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: On February 2, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.83, aluminum was 7.73, zinc was 7.53, lead was 8.49, nickel was 7.85, and tin was 8.16 [34]. - **CIF**: On February 2, 2026, the CIF of copper was 101532.75, aluminum was 25597.59, zinc was 27517.86, lead was 15764.97, nickel was 136168.76, and tin was 375735.34 [34]. - **Domestic Spot Price**: On February 2, 2026, the domestic spot price of copper was 101060, aluminum was 23680, zinc was 24970, lead was 16640, nickel was 140410, and tin was 392480 [34]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: On February 2, 2026, the import profit and loss of copper was (472.75), aluminum was (1917.59), zinc was (2547.86), lead was 875.03, nickel was 4241.24, and tin was 16744.66 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 233, soybeans No.2 was 96.22, soybean meal was 350, soybean oil was 578, and corn was 49 [38]. - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, for soybeans No.1, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 28, the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was 5, and the 9 - month minus 5 - month spread was 33 [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: On February 2, 2026, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.93, the soybeans No.2/corn ratio was 1.55, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.97, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 477, the soybean oil - palm oil spread was - 944, the rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread was 1082, and the corn - corn starch spread was - 249 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of CSI 300 was - 20.84, SSE 50 was 133.85, CSI 500 was - 19.49, and CSI 1000 was - 5.74 [50]. - **Inter - period spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 46.2, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 1.2; for SSE 50, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 24.8, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 10.6; for CSI 500, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 35.2, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 145.6; for CSI 1000, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 38.8, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 104.2 [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31). The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4840 to 4870, with a daily change of 30. The paper import profit changed from 54 to -40, with a daily change of 137 [1] Daily Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market fell significantly, following the oil price and the external market. The 03 - 04 spread was -284 (-2), the 03 - 05 spread was -190 (-12), and the 04 - 05 spread was 94 (-13). As of 10:30 p.m. on Monday, FEI and CP were 523.25 and 525.75 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31), with 31 lots reduced from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1]