Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in IPO amounts in July, with significant net inflows from southbound funds and financing into the pharmaceutical sector [1][4][34]. Macro Liquidity - Domestic: During the week of July 21-25, the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds rose, with the 10-year and 2-year bond yield spread widening. The central bank's net injection in the open market was 109.5 billion yuan, and the MLF net injection was 100 billion yuan [2][12]. - International: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased while the 10-year yield decreased, leading to a decline in the dollar index. As of July 25, the spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds narrowed to -2.67% [2][16][17]. Market Liquidity Public Funds - In July 2025, 110 new funds were established, with 62 being equity funds, totaling approximately 28.3 billion units issued [3][22]. ETF Funds - 35 new ETF funds were established in July 2025, with 25 being equity ETFs, totaling 11 billion units issued [3][25]. Southbound Funds - Significant net inflows were observed in southbound funds, with a total net inflow of 765.4 billion yuan year-to-date as of July 25 [3][34]. Margin Financing - The average financing purchase amount was 190 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase from the previous week, with notable net inflows in the non-ferrous metals and pharmaceutical sectors [4][42]. Fundraising - In July, there were 6 IPOs raising approximately 23.3 billion yuan, with total equity financing of about 60.7 billion yuan [4][46]. Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector saw the largest net inflow of 10.42 billion yuan, followed by pharmaceuticals and computers, totaling approximately 17 billion yuan [3][36].

Macroeconomic Liquidity and Capital Prices - The central bank maintained a net injection of 129.5 billion CNY, continuing to support the liquidity environment[10] - The money market rates have increased, with R007 rising by 18.7 basis points and DR007 by 14.6 basis points[13] - Bond market yields are under pressure, with 1Y and 10Y government bond yields increasing by 3.45 and 6.72 basis points respectively[13] Microeconomic Liquidity and A-share Market - A-shares experienced a net inflow of 46.6 billion CNY, primarily driven by significant inflows of leveraged funds[21] - Retail investors showed increased activity, with net inflows of 78.6 billion CNY, a rise of 26.2 billion CNY from the previous period[24] - Leveraged funds saw a net inflow of 444 billion CNY, marking a significant increase in market risk appetite[28] Fund Flows and Public Offerings - New issuance of equity funds reached 19.4 billion CNY, an increase of 6.8 billion CNY from the previous period[39] - Equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 58.3 billion CNY, while industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 115.1 billion CNY[40] - The total supply of funds was 58 billion CNY, up 35.9 billion CNY, while total demand decreased to 11.3 billion CNY, down 16.4 billion CNY[21] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, potentially increasing market uncertainty[65] - Geopolitical events could escalate tensions, impacting domestic and international markets[65] - Statistical data discrepancies may lead to inaccuracies in market assessments[65]

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI global index up by 1.3%, MSCI developed markets up by 1.4%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 0.7% [3] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance (+4.1%), while S&P/ASX 200 was the weakest (-1.0%) [3] - In emerging markets, ChiNext Index was the best performer (+2.8%), while India’s Sensex 30 was the worst (-0.4%) [3] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in Hong Kong and European markets, while it decreased in the US market [10][11] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a trading volume of 186 billion shares and a turnover of 705.5 billion USD, reflecting a week-on-week increase [11] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong decreased to 11.5%, indicating high investor sentiment [11] Valuation - Developed markets' overall valuation improved, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 23.8x and 3.8x, respectively, placing them in the 93% and 100% percentile levels since 2010 [13] - Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had the highest PE ratios at 43.1x and 32.0x, respectively [13] - Emerging markets also saw a valuation increase, with PE and PB ratios at 16.5x and 2.0x, respectively, in the 86% and 92% percentile levels since 2010 [14] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations tightened, with significant capital inflows into France, Germany, and India, while outflows were noted from the US [19][21] - In Hong Kong, a total of 21.3 billion HKD flowed into the market, with stable foreign capital inflows of 13.4 billion HKD [21] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's consumer sector saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2215 to 2210 [22] - The US S&P 500's earnings expectations remained stable at 265, while the Eurozone's STOXX50 index saw a slight downward adjustment from 338 to 337 [22][23]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined again, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [1][11] - The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both decreased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][11] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation has shown a pattern of first easing and then tightening [1][16] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][21] - The volatility of major indices has increased, with most industry volatilities remaining below the 40th historical percentile [2][27] - Market liquidity indicators have slightly declined, with liquidity metrics across various sectors remaining below the 40th historical percentile [2][32] Group 3: Institutional Research and Analyst Predictions - Research heat is high in sectors such as electronics, computers, retail, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals, while real estate and non-bank sectors have seen a rise in research heat [3][39] - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with an increase in the proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts [4][46] - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, light industry, steel, and utilities have seen upward adjustments in their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts [4][4][21] Group 4: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of buying and selling amounts in sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and electric new energy has increased [5][32] - Northbound funds primarily net bought sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling occurred in computers and telecommunications [5][33] Group 5: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to rise, reaching a year-to-date high, with net purchases mainly in machinery, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases in real estate, consumer services, and utilities has increased [6][38] - Margin financing has net bought across various styles of stocks [6][39] Group 6: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, while ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions [8][45] - Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in sectors like computers, electronics, and banks, while reducing in pharmaceuticals and retail [8][46] - New equity fund establishment has significantly increased, with a notable rise in the scale of passive funds [8][50]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined again, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations continuing to rise [1][11][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation has shown a pattern of first easing and then tightening [1][14] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][20] - The volatility of major indices has also increased, with most industry volatilities below the 40th historical percentile [2][26] Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, computer, retail, communication, and pharmaceutical sectors have seen high research activity, while real estate and non-bank sectors have also experienced a rise in research heat [3][36] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, while increasing forecasts for sectors such as non-ferrous metals, light industry, steel, and utilities [4][19] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been raised, while those for the CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext have been lowered [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals [4][31] - The ratio of buy/sell amounts for the top 10 active stocks has increased in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and pharmaceuticals [4][32] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to rise, reaching a year-to-date high, with significant net purchases in sectors like machinery, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [6][10] - The proportion of financing purchases in real estate, consumer services, and utilities has increased [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in sectors like computers, electronics, and banks [5][45] - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, particularly in sectors such as construction, steel, and chemicals, while electronic, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors have experienced net redemptions [5][53]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that a bullish market atmosphere is forming, but there is significant divergence among investors regarding the level of the bull market. The analysis highlights that in small bull markets, earnings are crucial, while in large bull markets, earnings are not the most important factor [2][7][19] - Since 1995, there have been three significant bull markets (with gains exceeding 150%) occurring in 1996-1997, 2005-2007, and 2014-2015, with only one (2005-2007) coinciding with a nominal GDP upturn. In contrast, smaller bull markets (with gains around 50-100%) also occurred three times, all during nominal GDP upturns [3][8][10] - The relationship between macro liquidity (interest rates) and the level of the stock market bull market is weak. Among the four bull markets since 2005, two experienced rising interest rates (2006-2007, 2009), one saw a decline (2014-2015), and one experienced fluctuations (2019-2021) [3][13][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that large bull markets are often catalyzed by policies and stock market funding. Historical data shows that when equity financing scales are lower than the dividends of listed companies, larger bull markets tend to follow. This pattern was observed in 1995, 2005, and 2013, leading to significant bull markets in the subsequent years [3][17][20] - The report suggests that the current market conditions, characterized by weak corporate earnings, positive policy stances, and active thematic opportunities, resemble previous periods that led to comprehensive bull markets. It predicts that as policy expectations increase in the second half of the year, the stock market is likely to enter a main upward trend [19][24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over 90% of public FOFs achieved net value growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on diversified asset allocation and structural opportunities in the equity market [1][4]. - Different fund managers have varying investment strategies, with some emphasizing structural opportunities in new productivity sectors such as new consumption, new technology, and new manufacturing [2][4]. - Specific funds like Penghua Yixuan and Chuangjin Hexin have reported significant net value growth rates of 6.95% and 6.06% respectively, showcasing their unique asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets and technology sectors, with funds like Chuangjin Hexin adjusting their allocations to emphasize value stocks and technology growth [3][4]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potentially better performance in the stock market due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic inventory replenishment cycles [5]. - Managers express optimism about structural investment opportunities in the capital market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and the potential for risk appetite recovery [4][5].

Core Insights - The recent outperformance of small-cap stocks is attributed to a significant influx of retail investor capital compared to institutional investors, indicating a rapid recovery in market risk appetite since September 2024, despite a lag in fundamental improvements [1][11] - The overall return of large-cap styles will depend on the emergence of a fundamental turning point and the return of institutional capital, with potential catalysts being the confirmation of an upward trend in the AI industry cycle or unexpected macro policy enhancements [1][11] Group 1: Misconceptions about Small-Cap Outperformance - Misconception 1: Macro liquidity easing is beneficial for small-cap stocks. Historical data shows that small-cap performance is not solely determined by macro liquidity conditions, as both small and large-cap stocks have outperformed in various liquidity environments [2] - Misconception 2: The influx of quantitative private equity funds is driving small-cap outperformance. The actual scale of private equity fund inflows has not been as significant as perceived, and quantitative funds are more likely to act as "discoverers" of excess returns rather than creators [4] - Misconception 3: Trading congestion is an effective timing indicator for small-cap stocks. Historical trends indicate that high trading activity does not necessarily lead to a downturn in small-cap stocks, as they can continue to outperform even during periods of high trading volume [6] Group 2: Drivers of Small-Cap Performance - The current small-cap outperformance may be primarily driven by changes in the micro-funding structure, particularly the irrational trading behavior of retail investors entering the market [8] - In both Hong Kong and A-share markets, the correlation between retail investor inflows and small-cap index performance suggests that retail participation is a significant factor in the recent small-cap outperformance [9] - The switch between small and large-cap styles may require a turning point in economic trends, with historical patterns indicating that institutional capital tends to lead market shifts when macro policies or industry trends experience breakthroughs [11]

Market Performance - Developed markets slightly outperformed, with MSCI Global up by 1.2%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 0.4%[2] - The UK 10Y government bond yield rose significantly by 16.2 basis points, while Japan's yield fell by 1.1 basis points[10] - Silver prices increased by 2.0%, leading the commodity market[10] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume generally decreased, with the S&P 500's trading volume down to 3.3 billion shares and $41.38 billion in value[24] - North American investor sentiment is at a historical high, with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 99.3%[24] - Hong Kong's short-selling ratio decreased to 11.4%, indicating a high investor sentiment level[24] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised up from 2227 to 2234 for 2025[5] - The S&P 500's earnings forecast remained stable at 264 for 2025[5] - The Eurozone STOXX50 earnings forecast was revised down from 346 to 340 for 2025[5] Economic Outlook - Global economic expectations improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. rising due to positive trade negotiations and strong employment reports[5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with 147,000 jobs added in June, lowering the unemployment rate to 4.1%[92] Liquidity Conditions - Global macro liquidity tightened, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.2 times this year, down from previous expectations[5] - The euro/dollar and yen/dollar swap basis widened, indicating slight tightening in dollar liquidity[58]

策略研究/策略周报 美债收益率继续上行，融资买入额回落 ——流动性 5 月第 2 期 ◼ 内容要点 上周（5.12-5.16）国内 2 年期、10 年期国债收益率上行；美国 2 年期、 10 年国债收益率继续上行，美元指数上行，中美 10 年国债利差边际 走扩；上周融资买入额回落，南向资金流小幅净流出。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（5.12-5.16）2 年期、10 年期国债收益率上行，10 年期与 2 年期国债利差收窄。上周央行公开市场净回笼 4751 亿元，MLF 净 投放 0 亿元。 国外：上周（5.12-5.16）2 年期、10 年期美债收益率继续上行，美元 指数上行，中美 10 年期国债利差边际走扩。上周 10 年期美债收益率 上行至 4.43%，美元指数升至 100.98。截至 5 月 16 日，中美 10 年期 国债利差走扩至-2.75%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2025 年 5 月新成立 40 只基金，其中 26 只为股票型基金。 截至 5 月 16 日，2025 年 5 月新成立基金 40 只，24 年 5 月为 94 只； 其中，5 月新成立股票型基金 26 只，发行总额约 101 亿 ...