热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： 隔夜LME休市，国内沪铜主力上涨2.51%至97680元/吨，价格再创历史新高。宏观方面，日本政府计划 于2026财年推出史上最大规模初始预算，总额约122.3万亿日元，较2025财年增长6.3%，预算增速远超 当前通胀水平。国内方面，昨日离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0，在岸人民币同日升破7.01关口，均创下2024 年9月底以来新高。库存方面，SMM周四统计国内精炼铜社会库存较周一增加2.52万吨至19.36万吨。需 求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。美联储流动性呵护以及明年全球经 济增速修复预期，继续推动宏观维系偏暖氛围，宽松叙事结构下铜保持偏强走势。基本面方面，低库存 与需求韧性仍构成下方支撑，但价格高位或抑制部分实货买盘，且临近年关，下游需求或进入淡季叙 事，国内或逐步进入累库阶段。短线关注贵金属过热情绪及大幅波动风险是否外延至有色市场，但策略 上仍建议维持逢低买入思路，不宜过度追高。 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金： 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜AO2601收于2635元/吨，跌幅0.38%，持仓增仓16367手至26 ...

回顾2025年，中国经济的底色没有改变，一直在延续修复式增长的状态。从短期运行看，2025 年前三 季度GDP累计同比增长 5.2%，尽管四季度面临高基数和外部冲击压力，但在政策加力支持下，全年将 实现 5%左右的增长目标。总体而言，2025 年宏观政策取向和经济运行基本符合此前预期，但通胀水平 明显低于预期。 展望2026年，作为"十五五"开局之年，内需扩张、政策持续宽松以及物价回升将共同支撑经济增长，预 计实际GDP增速仍可维持在5%左右。12 月 10 日至 11 日召开的中央经济工作会议分析了当前我国经济 运行面临的形势，并对2026年经济工作作出全面部署。会议指出，我国经济长期向好的基本趋势和支撑 条件并未改变；2026年要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合 理增长，保持社会大局稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 岁末年初，对于2026年，虽然宏观经济仍将维持修复增长的状态，但我们更加强调经济和政策层面的一 些新变化。那么，这种变化表现在什么方面呢？ 第一，名义经济增长明显改善。 从宏观基本面判断，虽然经济仍将继续延续修复增长的格局，但由于通胀回升，名义GDP增长将明显 ...

全球化：从"被融入"到主动赋能。以新兴市场和发展中国家为主的"全球南方"崛起，正在成为推动世界 多极化与经济增长的关键力量。在全球格局由单极主导向多极共治深刻转型、中国经济同时步入转型期 的背景下，中国的"全球化"角色已从过去的"被融入全球分工体系"，转向发挥"赋能者"作用，通过全球 化重构"三化一需"，积极参与全球政治经济秩序建设。这不仅为中国经济高质量发展提供持续动力，也 有助于营造更加平等包容的全球经济治理环境。 2026年经济展望：三重支撑下的"稳中求进" □王涵（兴业证券经济与金融研究院联席院长） 当前，全球格局正在经历深刻调整，大国博弈、产业链重构与地缘政治冲突等因素交织，加剧了外部环 境的不确定性。在此背景下，中国经济也进入新旧动能转换的关键阶段。 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，具有承前启后的重要意义。因此，对经济的分析既要关注当年运行特 征，把握增长韧性与潜在风险，更应将其置于中长期结构转型的宏观视野中加以审视。考虑到中国经济 体量庞大、国际形势复杂严峻，不应再过度聚焦增速高低，而应更加关注经济质量的提升与高质量发展 的实现。 中国经济转型期："三化一需"进入新阶段 改革开放以来，中国经 ...

今日白银价格最新查询(2025年12月25日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货白银 | 71.94 | 美元/盎司 | | 白银t+d | 17411 | 元/千克 | | 纸白银 | 15.935 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 17397 | 元/千克 | 【基本面解析】 本周美宏观数据表现经济韧性十足，劳动力市场未见明显压力。周二美国三季度实际GDP公布，大幅增 长4.3%，创两年内最快增速；周三美公布，12月20日当周首申失业金人数降至21.4万人，预期和前值为 22.4万人，表明劳动力市场仍未见明显压力。 美国财政部长贝森特支持在通胀率稳步回落至2%之后，重新审视美联储的这一通胀目标，主张央行退 居幕后、缩小干预，并与财政部协同配合。宏观逻辑变化不大，市场关注明年1月的美联储主席人选和 降息路径。 北京时间周四(12月25日)因圣诞节白银休市，美元指数交投于97.904附近，现货白银昨日收71.94美元/盎 司，最高上探72.70美元/盎司，最低触及70.16美元/盎司，基本面关注宏观经济信号、政策预期以及全 球市场供应面。 在假日交易清淡的情 ...

早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三国债期货主力合约多数小幅低开，全天横向窄幅 ...

制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.2%，非制造业商务活动指数降至 49.5%。 国际机构上调对中国 2025 年和 2026 年经济增长预期，工业转型升级 取得进展，但内需不足和收入乐观程度下降构成挑战。 政策建议包括：生产端优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业；投资端 扩大有效投资，激发民间投资活力；消费端提升居民消费能力，推进新 消费培育。短期财政政策应兜牢基层"三保"底线，规范税收优惠及财 政补贴政策。 预计 2026 年全球经济增速与 2025 年持平，中国 GDP 增长目标可设定 为 4.5%-5.0%。宏观政策将继续实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政 策。应重视科技创新与产业深度融合，培育科技企业家，并通过高科技 发展带动就业和民生改善。 包括：内需动能不足拖累整体生产，但外需扩张对 11 月生产端形成主要拉动 力量；冬季供暖需求推动采矿业增速提升，当月煤炭开采和洗选业同比增速为 7.5%；装备制造业占比持续提升，工业结构不断优化，其中电子、汽车行业增 速分别为 9.2%和 11.9%；高技术制造业引领工业高质量发展，规模以上高技 术制造业增加值同比增长 8.4%。 稳中求进、行稳致远的中国宏观经济 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US GDP growth rate in Q3 significantly exceeded market expectations, boosting global market confidence and driving the three major US stock indexes to rise for four consecutive days [1][2] - Domestically, the market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the central area of the box-shaped oscillation. The current market still shows the characteristic of sector rotation, and trading mainlines may gradually emerge [2] Summary by Directory Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on December 23, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.20%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.02%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22% [13] - The charts also show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF decreased by 789 to 92029, IH increased by 817 to 37812, IC decreased by 7094 to 96094, and IM decreased by 1632 to 144993; the open interest of IF increased by 7033 to 270424, IH decreased by 761 to 82828, IC decreased by 1024 to 255760, and IM increased by 2002 to 351928 [15] - The basis of stock index futures shows that the basis of IC and IM was slightly repaired [1] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures is also presented in the report [40][41][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开，早盘拉升一波后横盘，午后小幅再上后横向波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.89%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.26%， | | | | | 5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.17%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 593 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1353 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 760 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.4 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月22日，安利股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司市值受宏观经济、市场情 绪等多重因素综合影响，其表现不以公司主观评价所主导。公司将持续聚焦主业的深耕与拓展，不断提 升核心竞争力与经营质量，努力为广大投资者创造持续稳定的长期价值。 ...