2025 年 12 月 6 日 策略研究 国内外利好共振，市场有所回暖 ——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 1 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场出现回暖 受市场风险偏好抬升影响，本周 A 股市场出现上涨。受市场情绪好转、风险偏 好抬升影响，本周 A 股市场出现上涨，主要宽基指数大多上涨。在主要宽基指 数中，创业板指表现最好，涨跌幅为 1.9%，而科创 50 表现最差，涨跌幅为-0.1%。 目前万得全 A 估值处于 2010 年以来 85.7%分位数。 行业方面，有色金属、通信、国防军工表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一 级行业涨跌互现。有色金属、通信、国防军工等行业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别 达到了 5.3%、3.7%、2.8%。相比之下，传媒、房地产、美容护理等行业表现 相对靠后，涨跌幅分别达到了-3.9%、-2.2%、-2.0%。 本周重要事件 政策及会议方面，国家航天局设立商业航天司、特朗普或于明年初公布新任美联 储主席提名人选等。国家航天局已于近期设立商业航天司，相关业务正在逐步开 展，标志着我国商业航天产业迎来专职监管机构；美国总统特朗普 12 月 2 日在 白宫举行的内阁会议上说，他很可能在 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase with a focus on structural trends, prompting investors to consider appropriate investment strategies as the year ends [1][2]. Market Performance Overview - The market in 2025 has experienced various phases, starting with a rise in technology stocks early in the year, followed by a resilient performance amid geopolitical tensions, particularly highlighted by strong gains in blue-chip and banking stocks [1]. - In the latter half of the year, technology stocks regained leadership, driven by favorable factors, leading to a rapid market uptrend in August, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [1]. Recent Market Trends - Recently, the market has shown weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points in mid-November and reaching a low of 3816 points, although there has been a rebound [2]. - Despite the recent pullback, the overall market fundamentals remain strong, with continuous improvement in listed company performance and active market liquidity [2]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - A cautious approach is recommended, utilizing a "barbell strategy" which involves maintaining a balanced portfolio with both stable blue-chip stocks and high-growth stocks [3]. - The barbell strategy consists of three components: maintaining a moderate position (50-70% recommended), diversifying between stable blue-chip stocks with high dividend yields and growth stocks with potential for future gains, and being adaptable to market changes over time [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The market in 2025 has displayed a rich structural trend, with blue-chip and growth stocks representing the two ends of this spectrum. Concentrating on one end can yield higher returns during clear trends, while a balanced approach is necessary during uncertain periods [4]. - As policies are implemented and the market stabilizes, a new upward trend may emerge, allowing for strategic adjustments in investment approaches [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201), which has seen a 1.26% increase and a trading volume exceeding 4.4 billion yuan, leading its category [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous capital inflow for 20 consecutive trading days, totaling a net inflow of 2.106 billion yuan, indicating growing investor interest [1] - The current size of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has reached 7.615 billion yuan with 6.405 billion shares, both marking all-time highs since its inception [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the recent rise in the A-share market is driven by multiple favorable factors, including expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and easing concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market [1] - The market is expected to remain in a bull phase, but the duration of the bull market may be more significant than the magnitude of the increase, as guided by national policies promoting a "slow bull" [1] - In terms of asset allocation, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, as previously lagging sectors may perform better during market fluctuations, particularly high dividend and consumer stocks [1][2]

x 大大基金 链接您与财富 20年数据透视 这些板块或成12月主线机遇 复盘2005年至2024年12月份申万一级行业表现,从上涨概率来看,家 用电器、银行、食品饮料、社会服务、通信、石油石化、商贸零售7个 板块在12月实现上涨的概率均超过60%。从涨幅均值看,非银金融以 5.85%的平均涨幅居首,银行、食品饮料、家用电器等行业紧随其后。 | | 指数名称 | 涨幅均值 | 上涨概率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 家用电器 | 4.30% | 80% | | 2 | 銀行 | 5.08% | ୧5% | | 3 | 食品饮料 | 4.86% | ୧୧% | | 4 | 社会服务 | 4.27% | ୧୮% | | 5 | 道信 | 3.77% | ୧୮% | | 6 | 石油石化 | 2.56% | ୧୮% | | 7 | 商贸零售 | 2.26% | ୧୮% | | 8 | 美容护理 | 2.81% | 60% | | 9 | 农林牧渔 | 2.44% | 60% | | 10 | 煤炭 | 2.01% | 60% | | 11 | 有色金属 | 1.66% | 60% | ...

Group 1 - The current bull market is characterized by a "slow bull" sentiment, where the timing of retail investors entering the market affects the duration of the bull run [1] - Retail investors are increasingly favoring narrow-based ETFs over broad-based ETFs, indicating a shift towards more aggressive investment strategies [1][2] - Among the 19 ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in net inflows this year, only the CSI 300 is a broad-based ETF, while the remaining 18 are narrow-based ETFs [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Internet ETF and Securities ETF have seen significant net inflows of 546.95 billion yuan and 325.59 billion yuan, respectively, making them the top two performers [4] - The performance of narrow-based ETFs is further supported by the strong inflows into industry-themed ETFs, which dominate the accumulation rankings [6][7] - The CSI 500 index has experienced the largest net outflow this year, exceeding 960 billion yuan, attributed to previous overinflation and underperformance [10] Group 3 - The trend of net outflows from broad-based ETFs is evident, with only a few industry-specific indices appearing in the top outflow rankings [8][9] - The net outflow from the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices is viewed as a positive signal, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [11] - Retail investors have shown a tendency to exit the market after recovering their investments, particularly in the Sci-Tech 50 index [12][14] Group 4 - The majority of net inflows into ETFs are concentrated in narrow-based funds, with a notable preference for sectors like innovative drugs and robotics [15][17] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF has seen net subscriptions close to 100 billion yuan, with significant inflows during market dips, reflecting a strong accumulation sentiment [18] - The overall market sentiment suggests that as long as there are willing buyers, the bull market is likely to continue, despite potential risks [22]

x 大大基金 链接您与财富 20年数据透视 这些板块或成12月主线机遇 复盘2005年至2024年12月份申万一级行业表现,从上涨概率来看,家 用电器、银行、食品饮料、社会服务、通信、石油石化、商贸零售7个 板块在12月实现上涨的概率均超过60%。从涨幅均值看,非银金融以 5.85%的平均涨幅居首,银行、食品饮料、家用电器等行业紧随其后。 | | 指数名称 | 涨幅均值 | 上涨概率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 家用电器 | 4.30% | 80% | | 2 | 銀行 | 5.08% | ୧5% | | 3 | 食品饮料 | 4.86% | ୧୧% | | 4 | 社会服务 | 4.27% | ୧୮% | | 5 | 道信 | 3.77% | ୧୮% | | 6 | 石油石化 | 2.56% | ୧୮% | | 7 | 商贸零售 | 2.26% | ୧୮% | | 8 | 美容护理 | 2.81% | 60% | | 9 | 农林牧渔 | 2.44% | 60% | | 10 | 煤炭 | 2.01% | 60% | | 11 | 有色金属 | 1.66% | 60% | ...

Market Overview - The market is currently in a bull phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term, with significant upward potential remaining[3] - The domestic equity market indices experienced a downward trend this week, with various industry-themed funds performing poorly, while financial and real estate funds showed relative resilience[3] ETF and Fund Performance - Different investment range ETFs saw inflows, with broad-based theme ETFs significantly increased by passive funds, while active equity funds raised their positions compared to last week[3] - The public research stock selection strategy achieved an excess return of 3.63% relative to the CSI 800 index, while private equity research tracking strategy achieved an excess return of 3.32%[3] Credit Market Insights - A total of 433 credit bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance scale of 5890.11 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34%[23] - The weighted REITs index closed at 182.04, with a weekly return rate of -0.07%, ranking lower than other major asset classes such as US stocks and gold[27] Industry-Specific Trends - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization, driven by improved exports, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding compared to last month[13] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels, with the PB ratio likely to improve, although risks from futures price volatility remain[5] Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests focusing on "dividend + technology" as a long-term theme, with a positive outlook for the "red dividend" in terms of volatility[3] - In the lithium sector, companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential are recommended, including Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Tianqi Lithium[5]

Macro Analysis - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization in November, indicating a weak recovery driven by improved exports due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding [2] - Seasonal disruptions from the October holiday have ended, leading to a rise in production and procurement indices [2] - Both raw material and finished product price indices have increased, suggesting an ongoing improvement in the supply-demand relationship for industrial goods [2] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation phase, with a potential bull market direction, although short-term catalysts may be lacking [4] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock monthly stock picks for December include companies like Tencent Holdings, China Petroleum, and Haier Smart Home, indicating a focus on sectors with growth potential [3] Bond Market Overview - The total bond custody volume increased significantly in October, with a net increase in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while financial bonds saw a net decrease [5] - The convertible bond market experienced slight adjustments, with high-priced and high-valuation convertible bonds facing pressure [6] - Credit bond issuance rose to 5,890.11 million yuan, reflecting a 1.34% increase week-on-week, with overall credit spreads trending upwards [7] Chemical Industry Insights - The signing of a major potash fertilizer contract at $348 per ton indicates a tight supply-demand situation, supporting the industry's positive outlook [11] - Oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $62.32 and $58.48 per barrel respectively [12] Energy Sector Developments - The storage and hydrogen energy sectors are expected to see continued growth, with government support for market-driven adjustments and the promotion of hydrogen ammonia construction [13] Copper Industry Analysis - The China Copper Raw Material Negotiation Group has requested a 10% reduction in copper production capacity for 2026, indicating a tightening supply situation [14] Utility Sector Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has released new pricing policies for electricity distribution, which may lead to a valuation recovery in the green electricity sector [15] Automotive Sector Performance - Pony.ai reported significant revenue growth in its Robotaxi segment, with expectations for continued expansion and improved profitability [16] - Li Auto's third-quarter performance was under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, but the company remains optimistic about its market positioning [17] Apparel Industry Trends - Chow Tai Fook's sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a notable increase in revenue from priced jewelry, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts [18] - Bosideng's revenue grew by 1.4% in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by stable growth in its branded down jacket business [19]

Macro Strategy - In October, industrial enterprise profits showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from 21.60% in September to -5.5% in October, leading to a cumulative year-on-year growth rate decrease from 3.20% to 1.90% [2] - The A-share market experienced a rebound from November 24 to November 28, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.54% [3][4] - The rebound in A-shares was attributed to a reversal in the market's previous downward momentum, driven by a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and a recovery in the technology sector [3][4] Industry and Company Analysis Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - The Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector saw a slight increase of 1.29% last week, the smallest among secondary sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical industry [9] - The price index for TCM materials showed a slight increase of 0.4%, indicating a recovery in market conditions and improved investor sentiment [12] - Multiple regions have initiated price governance for traditional Chinese medicine, aiming to create a unified and competitive market structure [13] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the TCM industry, suggesting three main investment themes: 1. Price governance, focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products that can benefit from price reductions [15] 2. Consumption recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvement and increased health awareness among the aging population, favoring leading TCM brands [16] 3. State-owned enterprise reform, which is expected to enhance performance and create investment opportunities [16] - Recommended stocks include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Yiling Pharmaceutical, with a focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [16]

2. 广发证券：2026年A股春季躁动值得期待 对机构"最不利"的阶段，即将过去。每年11月，市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱。但进入12月，基本面定 价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的时间窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两 会。在这期间，市场有很好的"赚钱效应"，也就是"春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。春节前 后，市场从低胜率转向高胜率；大盘风格转向小盘风格。 12月到1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会暴雷且明年景气度趋势不错的 方向。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点，很多板块调整幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平，12月 可以逐步纳入观察范围。 3. 光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡 与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持 续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为 上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注 TMT和先进制造板块。 上周A股市场呈现震荡向上行情，主要宽基指数录得上涨，全A指数上涨2.90% ...