Supply and Demand - As of June 19, the overall operating rate of MEG is 70.33%, an increase of 4.08%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 70.16%, up by 1.73% [2] - As of June 23, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is approximately 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - Geopolitical factors have temporarily halted Iranian ethylene glycol facilities, which has supported a strong performance in ethylene glycol; however, Iranian inventory is still being shipped normally, and the actual arrival volume in July is expected to have little impact [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene glycol facilities are operating at full capacity, and two 700,000-ton facilities in Saudi Arabia are expected to restart soon, with local facility load increasing and planned shipping volume rising compared to the previous period [3] - In the short term, with the recovery of domestic facilities and weak demand expectations, supply and demand are unlikely to provide upward momentum for ethylene glycol, and with geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices significantly dropping, a price correction for ethylene glycol is anticipated; the short-term focus for EG09 is on the resistance level of 4,500 [3] Spot Market - On June 23, ethylene glycol prices opened high and then retreated, with market discussions remaining acceptable; overnight crude oil prices rose, leading to an early high opening for ethylene glycol, with spot transactions reaching around 4,640-4,650 yuan/ton [1] - Following news of Iranian facility restart intentions, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline; in the afternoon, the market saw narrow fluctuations with weak trading [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices also retreated from recent highs, with early discussions around 538-540 USD/ton, later falling to 531-533 USD/ton, and afternoon discussions around 533-535 USD/ton, with some trades executed at 531 USD/ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in oil and gas stocks due to a sharp drop in international oil prices [1] - Affected companies include Tongyuan Petroleum, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Baomo Co., Taishan Petroleum, Beiken Energy, Zhun Oil, Zhongman Petroleum, and Shandong Molong, all of which experienced trading halts at their lower limits [1] - The international crude oil futures settlement prices saw a substantial decrease, with WTI crude oil futures for August contracts falling by 7.22% and Brent crude oil futures for August contracts dropping by 7.18% [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant decline on June 23, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for August dropping by $5.33 to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 7.22%, and Brent crude oil futures for August falling by $5.53 to $71.48 per barrel, a decrease of 7.18% [1] - Concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern energy supplies were initially heightened following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which raised fears of increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that if transportation disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices could rise to $110 per barrel, with an average forecast of $95 per barrel by Q4 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Iranian government responded to U.S. actions by launching missile strikes on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, although the attack was intercepted without causing casualties [2] - Market sentiment shifted from tension to cautious observation following Iran's relatively restrained response, suggesting limited upward pressure on oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains open [2] - President Trump called for stability in oil prices and urged for immediate expansion of drilling, interpreted as a push for the U.S. energy sector [2] Group 3 - Reports indicated that Israel and Iran reached an agreement for a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire," leading to further declines in international oil prices during Asian trading hours on June 24 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel on the global oil market, highlighting that while geopolitical risks have increased, analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would limit the sustainability of the current geopolitical risk premium on oil prices [1][5][7]. Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Following the conflict's escalation, Brent crude oil futures rose over 3%, reaching $81.40 per barrel, while WTI crude hit $78.40, marking five-month highs. Since June 13, Brent crude has increased by 13%, and WTI by approximately 10% [6]. - The CBOE crude oil volatility index has reached levels similar to those seen shortly after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium may not be sustainable if there are no substantial disruptions to oil supply [7][8]. Worst-Case Scenarios - Two worst-case scenarios are discussed: the potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and instability within the Iranian regime. If the Strait were to be blocked, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with some estimates suggesting prices could reach between $100 and $120 per barrel [2][11][12][13]. - Historical data indicates that significant military conflicts involving Israel have not led to lasting impacts on oil prices, with prices often stabilizing and declining over time [8][9]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from various financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict that if oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz is halved due to a blockade, Brent prices could spike to $110, followed by a decline [13]. - The potential for political instability in Iran could lead to significant changes in oil production policies, which may result in prolonged price increases [15][16]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while the current geopolitical tensions have led to a temporary spike in oil prices, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with analysts expecting prices to stabilize unless there are significant supply disruptions [8][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly focusing on the impact of military actions on the oil and shipping sectors, highlighting significant price increases in shipping rates and potential implications for oil prices [1][4][10]. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile projects have been "severely damaged," and Israel's objectives are "very close to completion" [1][4]. - Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's leadership indicated that they would not engage in diplomatic negotiations before retaliating [1][4]. - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, although the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council [7][10]. Group 2: Impact on Shipping and Oil Prices - The A-share shipping sector experienced a significant surge, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit [2][9]. - The rental prices for large oil tankers have skyrocketed, with the daily rental for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) increasing from $19,998 to $47,609, a rise of 138% [9][10]. - The rental rates for Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers also saw a substantial increase, from $21,097 to $51,879, indicating a broader trend of rising shipping costs due to heightened security risks in the region [10]. Group 3: Oil Price Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will experience significant upward pressure, with Brent crude futures potentially breaking the $80 per barrel mark and fluctuating between $70 and $100 per barrel [10]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to contribute to volatility in oil prices and shipping rates, driven by the uncertainty surrounding Iran's potential actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz [10].

中信证券：短期内油价将持续高位波动 智通财经6月23日电，中信证券研报指出，随着美国加入攻击伊朗核设施，中东形势有进一步扩大趋 势，我们预计油价将大幅上行，短期内油价将持续高位波动，关注矛盾是否进一步激化及原油基础设施 港口等运行条件。综合来看，短期布伦特原油期货价格有望突破80美元/桶并进一步上探，我们预计在 70-100美元/桶区间震荡。若需求不及预期且OPEC+持续增产，中枢将逐步下移。 ...

当地时间周五（6月20日），投资者密切关注中东局势的最新动态，欧美股市表现分化。 截至收盘，美国三大股指涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数涨0.08%，报42206.82点；标普500指数跌0.22%，报5967.84点；纳斯达克指数跌0.51%，报19447.41点。 本周，道琼斯工业指数涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.15%，纳斯达克指数涨0.21%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42206.82 | 35.16 | 0.08% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19447.41 | -98.86 | -0.51% | | SPX | 标普500 | 5967.84 | -13.03 | -0.22% | 美股大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌跌近4%，脸书跌近2%，亚马逊、英伟达跌逾1%，微软跌0.64%，特斯拉微幅上涨，苹果涨逾2%。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨1.27%，报23350.55点；法国CAC40指数涨0.48%，报7589.66点；英国富时100指数跌0.2 ...

6月20日，国际油价突然直线跳水，截至发稿，ICE布油跌超3%，NYMEX WTI原油跌超1%。 与此同时，国际金价、银价也小幅下跌。 消息面上，以伊冲突进入第8天。据央视新闻消息，当地时间20日下午，以色列国防军表示，以军正对伊朗中部和西部的军事设施展开打击。 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬20日在社交媒体上称，伊朗始终寻求和平与安宁，但在当前的形势下，结束强加战争的唯一方法是（以色列）"无条件停止"侵略，同 时必须保证能够一劳永逸地结束"以色列的冒险行为"。同日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，只要以色列继续袭击，伊朗就不会与任何一方进行对话。 另据路透社报道，在6月19日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会主席团成员贝纳姆·萨伊迪（Behnam Saeedi）表示，伊朗有很多选择来回应其敌人，关闭霍尔木兹 海峡是伊朗的潜在选择之一。 德意志银行外汇研究主管乔治·萨拉维洛斯（GeorgeSaravelos）估算，若伊朗石油供应完全中断且霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的最坏情况出现，油价可能突破每 桶120美元。 花旗表示，如果伊朗每天出口110万桶原油的供应受到中断，以5月的出口水平为基准，预计油价应上涨约15%至20%。在6月12日伊朗与以色列冲突 ...

美、布两油短线跳水后部分反弹，现分别报72.9美元/桶和74.95美元/桶。 ...

6月20日，布伦特原油期货8月合约结算价涨幅为2.8%，报78.85美元/桶，创下2024年7月中旬以来收盘新高。 据新华社报道，美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特6月19日表示，美国总统特朗普将在"接下来两周内"决定是否下令美军对伊朗发动打击。 伊朗再度进行威胁 据路透社报道，在6月19日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会主席团成员贝纳姆·萨伊迪（BehnamSaeedi）表示，伊朗有很多选择来回应其敌人，关闭霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗 的潜在选择之一。 不过另一名议员阿里·亚兹迪哈（AliYazdikhah）表示，只有在德黑兰的关键利益受到威胁时，才会采取这一影响全球经济的措施。他同时表示，如果美国正式且实 际参战以支持以色列，那么伊朗有合法权利向美国和西方国家施压，以破坏其石油贸易的过境便利性。 "伊朗的敌人很清楚，我们有数十种方法可以使霍尔木兹海峡变得不安全，这个选项对我们来说是可行的。"上述议员表示。据克拉克森统计的数据，全球11%的海 运贸易量经过霍尔木兹海峡，其中包括34%的海运石油出口、30%的液化石油气出口、20%的液化天然气贸易、18%的化学品贸易、7%的汽车贸易、3%的全球集装 箱贸易和2%的干散货。 宁夏大 ...