Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to the current low level of the reference crude oil price change rate, despite international crude oil prices showing a strong fluctuation trend [1][2]. Group 1: International Crude Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, leading to a change in the domestic reference crude oil price change rate from negative to positive, but still at a low level [1]. - The average price level of international crude oil has slightly increased, influenced by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, despite expectations of oversupply due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and rising U.S. oil inventories [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustment - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is at 0.59%, which translates to an expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but this does not reach the retail price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1]. - The probability of a price adjustment being suspended is high, marking the sixth suspension of refined oil price adjustments since the beginning of 2025 [2].

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel this week, respectively, both up by $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, down by 10 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [1] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 418, while active fracturing fleets rose by 5 to 169 [1] U.S. Crude Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.42 million barrels per day, down by 390 thousand barrels per day week-on-week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.3%, down by 1.6 percentage points [1] - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 569, 528, and 42 thousand barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week change of -58, +253, and -311 thousand barrels per day [2] U.S. Refined Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel respectively [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, showing week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [4] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 941, 496, and 190 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [5] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 881, 362, and 162 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [5] U.S. Refined Products Trade - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 16, 97, and 81 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +7, -2, and -9 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 10, 85, and 76 thousand barrels per day, reflecting week-on-week changes of -12, -54, and -42 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 5, 24, and 18 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -7, +5, and +12 thousand barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [6] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Services, China Oil Engineering, and Petrochemical Machinery [6]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry continues to adjust, with ongoing attention to the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading [1] - The oil and petrochemical index fell by 1.99% this week, while the best-performing segment was oil product sales and storage, which only declined by 0.46% [1] - Crude oil prices decreased, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a reduction in gasoline inventories [1] Group 2 - Polyester filament prices and price spreads have decreased, with an increase in inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in weaving machine operating rates [1] - The sample prices of polyolefins remained stable, with inventory depletion observed [1] - If demand improves and there is progress in eliminating backward production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [2]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the geopolitical disturbance affecting Russian oil shipments, leading to a rise in crude oil prices. EIA reports show increases in both crude oil and refined product inventories. Continuous attention is required on domestic commodity prices and the progress of phasing out outdated facilities in the petrochemical industry [2][5] - The petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.41% compared to the previous week, while oilfield services showed the best performance within the sector, with a rise of 3.98% [3][5] - Crude oil prices increased, with U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories also rising [6][13] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament remained stable, with price spreads increasing. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, while the operating rate remained stable [18][25] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remained stable, with inventory levels decreasing [26][29] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures closing at $67.43 per barrel, up 3.3% from last week. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15,430 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1,220 thousand barrels [8][17] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) were stable at 6,860, 8,040, and 7,135 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 150 yuan per ton [20][25] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reported at 27.6, 31.1, and 19.3 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively [25] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) were reported at 7,850 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous week. The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins was 65.5 million tons, down by 1.5 million tons from last week [29]

Core Viewpoint - Trafigura Group's oil business is supported by recent investments in refining and distribution assets, despite declining profitability among competitors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Trafigura's oil trading volume is sufficient to meet three times France's demand, and it is also the largest metal trader globally [2]. - The company restructured its crude oil and petroleum products teams last year, with Dan Woodbridge leading crude operations and Tom Farrant overseeing global gasoline [2]. - The establishment of a new asset management department has had a significantly positive impact on the company's operations [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Major energy companies are experiencing reduced earnings due to volatile oil prices driven by geopolitical events, contrasting with a previous period of record profits [1]. - Refining margins have increased due to strong fuel demand, while attacks on Russian production facilities have limited oil product supply [1]. - Despite concerns over oversupply and slowing global economic growth, Brent crude prices have remained above $65 per barrel [4][5]. Group 3: Price Valuation - The fair value of oil is estimated to be around $55 per barrel based on supply and demand fundamentals, but current prices reflect various risk factors [5][6]. - Factors such as sanctions, tariffs, Middle East tensions, and the Ukraine crisis are influencing oil pricing, preventing it from reaching the estimated fair value [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has slightly recovered from the news of OPEC's production increase, and oil prices have stabilized. However, due to the unclear situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate repeatedly, providing limited guidance for the unilateral price direction of downstream fuel oil [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors intertwined. Supply is tightening due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and attacks on Russian refineries, and downstream bunker demand is fair. But Middle East fuel oil exports are increasing, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production has slightly rebounded but remains at a relatively low level. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower valuation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.13% at 2,764 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.68% at 3,385 yuan/ton [1] - Although OPEC has lifted the second - layer production limit, the increase in quotas does not necessarily mean an increase in actual production, and the short - term pressure on the market is limited [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is affected by sanctions and attacks on refineries, while Middle East exports are expected to increase, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production in August was 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. There are no obvious signs of increased production in September, and the production trend this year is expected to be more stable than last year. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is expected to decrease in September [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas exploration sector is experiencing a significant surge driven by dual catalysts: major breakthroughs in resource discovery and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 10, the oil and gas exploration sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 16% and Keli Co. increasing by more than 15% [3][5]. - Major players such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation also exhibited upward movements in their stock prices [6]. Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - The first catalyst is the announcement from Xu Dachun, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources, regarding significant breakthroughs in oil, gas, and uranium mining in China, which is expected to support stable oil production of 200 million tons and natural gas output exceeding 240 billion cubic meters [4][7]. - The second catalyst is the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have led to a rise in international oil prices [4][7]. Group 3: International Oil Price Dynamics - Reports indicate that after OPEC+ approved an increase in supply quotas, Goldman Sachs maintained its bearish outlook on oil prices, predicting Brent crude to reach $64 per barrel in Q4 and an average of $56 per barrel in 2026 [8]. - The anticipated surplus in the global oil market, estimated at 1.9 million barrels per day next year, adds to the downward pressure on prices [8][9]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The oil and gas exploration sector has shown significant growth since 2022, while the oil service engineering sector has lagged behind [9]. - Recent layoffs in major oil companies, including Chevron and BP, signal potential challenges within the industry, raising concerns about the overall health of the oil and gas sector [8].

Group 1 - OPEC+ is considering increasing oil production to regain market share, which raises concerns about oversupply in the oil market [1] - As of September 5, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.50 per barrel, down 3.85% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $61.87 per barrel, down 3.34% week-on-week [2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.42 million barrels per day, down 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week, and refinery throughput also declined to 16.87 million barrels per day, down 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil inventories increased, with strategic reserves at 404.71 million barrels, up 510,000 barrels week-on-week, and commercial inventories at 420.71 million barrels, up 2.42 million barrels week-on-week [3] - The price spread for gasoline narrowed, while the price spread for polyester filament expanded, indicating market dynamics in refining and chemical sectors [3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on stable, high-dividend companies like China National Petroleum and Sinopec, as well as companies with low production costs like CNOOC, and those in the growth phase like New Natural Gas and Man Oil [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices, but macro - level financial market shocks cause wide - range oil price fluctuations. PX prices return to normal after the hype of domestic PX device maintenance news. With low PX inventory, the price has strong bottom support, and its future performance depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain due to the rigid demand of new PTA production devices. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester start - up is gradually increasing [2]. - Crude oil is weakly oscillating. PTA has sufficient spot supply, and its spot average price drops while the spot basis weakens. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance can't continuously boost prices. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester start - up load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The downstream polyester factories' procurement enthusiasm for PTA spot is low, and the polyester inventory is transferred downward, but the equity inventory is expected to change little. The overall sales of downstream polyester products are dull, and there is no clear signal for the start of the demand peak season. PTA will move in an oscillating manner, with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains stable. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuate slightly. The supply - side quotes of bottle - chips are mostly stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously with a light trading atmosphere. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, with sufficient market spot supply, and market demand is weakening [2]. - With the weakening of cost support, TA2601, PX2511, and PR2511 contracts all closed lower. OPEC and its production - limiting allies are expected to dominate the overnight crude oil market. As the downstream peak season has not started, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to run weakly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 3, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.97 per barrel, down 2.47% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.60 per barrel, down 2.23% [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $605.00 per ton, up 0.75%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $687.00 per ton, up 0.37%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $843.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; the settlement price was 4,754 yuan per ton, down 0.46%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,660 yuan per ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 4,692 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $632.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,810 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,834 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX near - month contract were both 6,714 yuan per ton, with no change. The domestic PX spot price was 6,742 yuan per ton, with no change. The spot price (mid - price) of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $844.00 per ton, down 0.35%; the spot price (mid - price) of PX (FOB Korea) was $819.00 per ton, down 0.36% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,892 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 5,924 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR near - month contract were both 5,818 yuan per ton, with no change. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5,940 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and polyester chips remained unchanged on September 3, 2025. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,510 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [2]. Production and Sales Information - **开工率**: On September 3, 2025, the start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 74.26%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.99%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.27%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, with no change [1]. - **产销率**: The sales rate of polyester filament was 50.83%, up 12.80 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.19%, down 1.06 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.48%, down 15.56 percentage points [1]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22, 2025. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2].

Core Viewpoint - United Energy Group (00467.HK) reported a revenue of approximately HKD 8.08 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a 4.2% decrease compared to the same period last year, with a profit attributable to shareholders of about HKD 740 million, down 26.7% year-on-year [1] Revenue Performance - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the decrease in average realized prices for crude oil and condensate [1] - The trading business and new clean energy initiatives partially offset the negative impact on revenue [1] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices fluctuated between USD 60 and USD 83 per barrel during the reporting period [1] - The average price of Brent crude oil for the first half of 2025 was USD 72.03 per barrel, which is approximately 14.04% lower than the average price of USD 83.79 per barrel in the same period of 2024 [1]