中东局势搅动全球能源市场。 据最新消息，当地时间6月14日，伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭到以色列空袭，部分设施爆炸起火。这是以色列首 次袭击伊朗能源基础设施。 有分析称，此次袭击可能会进一步削弱伊朗摇摇欲坠的能源行业。中东紧张局势升级有可能会进一步引发全球原油 价格剧烈波动，美国原油价格周五一度飙涨14%。 交易市场也显示出交易员对油价飙升的担忧。大量"价外看涨期权"被交易，意味着许多人在对冲油价进一步上涨的 风险。其中成交量较大的期权是，如果油价在6月25日之前涨到85美元/桶以上就会获利的合约。WTI原油的看涨期权 与看跌期权之间的价格比值升至2022年3月以来最高，当时俄乌冲突爆发。 另外，美国与欧洲的巨大分歧也引发市场关注。据美媒报道，知情人士透露，美国拒绝欧洲降低俄罗斯石油价格上 限提议。分析指出，对投资者而言，这种政策分歧和市场波动的组合正在创造一个更加难以预测的能源市场环境。 以色列首次袭击伊朗能源基础设施 6月15日，据新华社消息，伊朗迈赫尔通讯社15日凌晨援引伊朗石油部发表的声明报道，位于德黑兰以北的沙赫兰储 油库和位于该市以南的燃料储存罐14日晚遭以色列袭击。由于两处储油设施内油量不多，火 ...

华泰证券：伊以冲突扩大 油价进入高波动阶段 金十数据6月15日讯，华泰证券研报称，中东地缘紧张局势加剧，相关地区原油供应下降潜在风险显 现，叠加4—5月OPEC+实际供应增量低于目标上调幅度，以及北半球传统需求旺季将至，油价大幅反 弹。6月13日WTI、布伦特原油期货价格分别收于72.98、74.23美元/桶，较月初上涨16.7%、14.9%。华 泰证券认为伊朗原油产量及出口短期或将下滑，油价将进入高波动阶段，霍尔木兹海峡关乎沙特等中东 产油国的共同核心利益，运输受阻风险有待进一步评估。全球石油需求增量持续受电、气冲击，供给端 产油国协同趋弱及新兴供应力量崛起，预计2025—2027年油价中枢仍将下行，基于边际成本及供给 方"利重于量"诉求的新一轮再平衡，油价中枢仍将高于60美元/桶。 布伦特原油 ...

| 11/11/2 | 国技斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月13日 | | 爱两烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | PX | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | なな女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ★★★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 中东地缘冲突导致国际油价大幅拉升,霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全风险增加,市场预期 ...

中东紧张局势升级，摩根大通警告原油或升至130美元。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。环球网援引据沙特媒体哈达斯消息称，以色列国防部长卡茨宣布以色列对伊朗发动先发制 人的打击。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通首席大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva在其最新发布的报告中分析称， 当前油价接近70美元，较其模型估算的6月公允价值66美 元高出约4美元，暗示市场已计入7%的最坏情境概率。 Kaneva进一步指出，如果冲突扩大，油价反应将呈指数级而非线性增长。 若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120-130美元区间。 | | Crude | Products | Total | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | UAE | 2,835 | 1.568 | 4.403 | | Saudi Arabia | 5,973 | 1,243 | 7,216 | | Kuwait | 1,360 | 976 | 2,336 | | Iran | 1,775 | 328 | 2,134 | | Qatar | 744 | 488 | 1,232 | | bell | 3,2 ...

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures surged over 13%, reaching $76.89 per barrel, marking the highest level since January 22 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The significant increase in oil prices is attributed to military actions taken against Iran, specifically airstrikes targeting nuclear and military facilities [1] - The operation was named "Lion's Strength," indicating a strategic military initiative that may impact global oil supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Price Volatility - The volatility in international oil prices suggests potential for substantial trading opportunities, with reports indicating that daily gains could reach nearly tenfold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SC crude oil main contract has reached its daily limit, with an increase of 8.98%, priced at 535.2 yuan per barrel [1] Industry Summary - International oil prices are experiencing significant volatility, presenting opportunities for substantial returns, with potential gains of nearly ten times in a single day [1]

中东紧张局势升级，摩根大通警告原油或升至130美元。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。环球网援引据沙特媒体哈达斯消息 称，以色列国防部长卡茨宣布以色列对伊朗发动先发制人的打击。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通首席大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva在其最新发布的报告中分析称，当前 油价接近70美元，较其模型估算的6月公允价值66美元高出约4美元，暗示市场已计入7%的最坏情境概 率。 历史上，尽管伊朗多次威胁封锁海峡——尤其是在1980年代伊朗-伊拉克战争"油轮战争"期间，以及 2007-2008年与美国海军的对峙中——但海峡从未真正关闭。 摩根大通分析认为，伊朗之所以始终未封锁霍尔木兹海峡，是因为封锁成本对伊朗自身而言过于高昂。 不仅会违背国际准则，更将直接威胁海湾国家经济利益，可能孤立伊朗于海湾合作委员会（GCC）。 报告进一步指出，而一旦冲突升级至全面战争，这一"红线"可能被突破。 市场的理性与疯狂 摩根大通对油价的基本预测依然谨慎，认为2025年剩余时间油价将维持在60美元/桶中低区间，2026年 为60美元/桶。 Kaneva进一步指出，如果冲突扩大，油价反应将呈指数级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the sensitivity of U.S. shale oil activity to oil prices, particularly under $60 per barrel, indicating that a $1 change in WTI price could risk 4-5 drilling rigs and 2-3 hydraulic fracturing platforms [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The IEA model shows a better linear relationship between the number of rigs and the lagged WTI price when the price is below $60 [1][3]. - In April-May 2025, WTI oil prices fell by approximately $10 per barrel, leading to a notable decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs [1][3]. - By early June, the number of oil rigs decreased by 42 compared to the end of March, while natural gas rigs increased by 11 [1][3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Adjustments - U.S. shale oil companies have been maintaining capital expenditure discipline, with many lowering their annual capital expenditure guidance following the drop in oil prices [2]. - Despite the reduction in capital expenditure guidance, the production guidance for oil and gas remained largely unchanged, although some companies plan to reduce oil rig counts while increasing natural gas rig counts [2]. Group 3: Production Costs and Breakeven Points - In Q1 2025, shale oil production costs continued to experience deflation, attributed to reduced rig counts, lower oil prices, and declining service costs [4]. - The latest analysis indicates that the breakeven oil prices for major shale oil companies range from $45 to $62 per barrel, with an average of $54 per barrel, slightly lower than in 2024 [5]. - The highest breakeven point is noted for Western Oil at $62 per barrel [5]. Group 4: Production Willingness - Shale oil companies are likely to increase production only if oil prices rise to the $65-$70 range [7]. - In the $50-$60 range, companies may maintain current activity levels but could slightly reduce rig counts while focusing on efficiency [7]. - Below $50, a significant reduction in production is anticipated [7].

Market Overview - US stock market opened high but closed lower, with all three major indices declining; Nasdaq down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.27% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks mostly fell, with Intel dropping over 6%, marking its largest single-day decline in two months; Amazon down over 2%, Apple and Meta down over 1%, while Nvidia and Google saw slight declines [3] - Oklo surged nearly 30%, reaching a record closing high after securing a nuclear power agreement with the US Air Force [3] - Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG) saw an 82% increase on its first day of trading in the US IPO market [3] Chinese Stocks - Mixed performance among popular Chinese stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.08%; Bilibili up over 8%, Futu Holdings and Dingdong Maicai up over 6%, while Alibaba fell over 1% [5] Commodity Prices - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3,370 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 0.5% [10] - COMEX gold futures rose 0.9%, settling at $3,373.5 per ounce; COMEX silver futures fell 0.76%, settling at $36.365 per ounce [12] - International crude oil futures surged over 4%, with WTI July crude oil closing up $3.17, a 4.88% increase, at $68.15 per barrel; Brent August crude oil rose $2.9, a 4.33% increase, at $69.77 per barrel [12]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月05日 油气行业 2025 年 5 月月报 优于大市 OPEC+7 月延续增产，受地缘局势及关税政策影响油价波动 5 月油价回顾： 2025 年 5 月布伦特原油期货均价为 64.0 美元/桶，环比下跌 2.5 美元/ 桶，月末收于 63.9 美元/桶；WTI 原油期货均价 61.3 美元/桶，环比下 跌 1.5 美元/桶，月末收于 60.8 美元/桶。5 月上旬，"对等关税"政策 引发经济衰退及能源需求担忧，OPEC+宣布将在 6 月再次加速增产 41.1 万桶/天，国际油价大幅下跌；5 月中上旬，英美关税贸易协议达成一致， 中美大幅下调双边关税，加之中东地区地缘局势紧张支撑，国际油价宽 幅上行；5 月中下旬，美伊谈判前景不明朗，OPEC+讨论 7 月继续增产， 并可能进一步加快石油增产步伐，国际油价震荡下跌。6 月初，乌克兰 无人机袭击多个俄罗斯军用机场、以色列就打击伊朗核设施进行准备， 原油价格大幅上涨。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 油价观点判断： 供给端 OPEC+宣布 7 月份延续增产 41.1 万桶/天：2024 年 12 月第 38 届 OPEC+召开部长级会议 ...