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被撕裂的美国软实力
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-06-06 05:01
依托着政治价值观感召力、科技创新牵引力、流行文化吸引力以及外交政策正当性等集合要素,美 国在"二战"后沉淀与铸造出了属于自我的软实力,进而赢得了创建国际新秩序的绝对话语权席位。然 而,近十年来,霸权主义、单边主义、贸易保护主义和文化保守主义的泛滥,严重冲击了美国软实力, 使其国际形象受损,价值观念和政策倡议的认同度与信任度降低,这种趋势在特朗普新任期内愈发明 显。 美国际话语权正在下行 从联合国建立到关贸总协定及世贸组织创建,再到国际货币基金组织和世界银行成立,及世界卫生 组织等公益机构问世,以及北约生成,美国在全球治理框架中都充当过发起人或者领头羊的核心角色, 及至后来很长时期,无论是在许多重要的国际公共场合,还是对他国的间接影响上,美国都展示出了强 大能量。 布雷顿森林体系的重要内容是美元与黄金挂钩,市场之所以愿意使用美元,是因为有黄金信用的支 持。布雷顿森林体系解散后,美元虽与黄金脱钩,但很快与石油资源绑定。基于石油的稀缺性,美元信 用并没有受到损害。而且二战后,没有一种非美货币比美元的表现更稳定、更坚挺。毕竟,战后美国经 济增长强劲,公共财政持续健康良好,债务扩张维持在一个合理的水平。因此,美元后来继 ...
信用裸奔黄金上位,看懂王“折腾”背后的局
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-01 03:26
更何况,最近靠着一招反复折腾关税操控资本市场,带着自己的亲朋好友们早早埋伏,没少赚美刀啊。 中美谈的是有90天的缓冲期,且还早着呢,不必着急早早的出结果。 最近这段时间暂停加征关税,可以让美国国内囤一波货,懂王也能缓缓。压力没那么大了,就可以换个 姿势作妖了,东大这边没有放松稀土出口,美国那边也在想办法加筹码,只是我认为不给中国学生签证 其实真的毫无意义,留学生的名声到底要怎么挽回来呢?董大姐私下里对留学生的评价,4+4风波,美 帝还真以为这一招能拿捏谁,那也是错判了行情。 之前懂王就把白宫的华裔幕僚都赶走了,因为他们提供了错误的讯息,这倒不是这帮高华们有意误导, 实在是这帮人无非是各种型号的章家敦。傲慢和偏见让他们根本看不清中国,只是一味地揣摩懂王的心 思,在那里胡说八道,等懂王发现上当了,已经掉坑里了。 现在无非是从一个坑掉另一个坑,凭空造出来的牌没什么作用,只能拖呗。 懂王那边着急的是推自己的大美丽法案。就这个法案,现在引发全美上下一片骚动,法案1000多页,估 计没几个人有耐心看完。不过网上有很多关于法案的解读,我看了半天,核心就四个字:劫贫济富,堵 死穷人占国家便宜的各种路子,让富人缴更少的税,让美 ...
美债,可能要出问题了!
大胡子说房· 2025-05-28 11:04
其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业,到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事,揭开了真相。 今年 3 月,东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债,持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后, 25 年来首次退居全球第三,被英国反超。 减持美债,其实是一个很关键的信号,它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩,而是东大,正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 3月份,海外资金买入美国国债的单月净流入为1618亿美元,是2月的1.5倍。 但在东大抛售美债的同时,海外资金却在疯狂买入美国国债, 曾经,我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年,金融危机席卷 全球,华尔街风雨飘摇,但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元,规模首次超过日本,跃居全球第一,撑起了美元信用。 但风向,从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现,我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向: 对美元体系的信任,不再是无条件的; 对外汇储备的构成,也不再是一成不变。 于是,美债持有比例从高点回落,中国开始温和但持续 ...
华安基金:关税缓和或已计价,黄金重回3300美元
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-05-27 08:53
Key Points - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,358 per ounce, a 4.9% increase, and domestic AU9999 gold at 776 yuan per gram, up 4.0% week-on-week [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to fluctuating US-EU tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks, allowing gold to regain the $3,300 level [1] - The recent tariff easing has led to a correction in the previously overheated gold market, with gold experiencing a maximum pullback of 8-10% from its peak of $3,500 [1] Group 1 - The easing of tariff tensions has been largely priced into gold, suggesting that the market has adjusted to the recent developments [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the US economy, exacerbated by previous tariff disputes, may continue to challenge economic stability despite tariff reductions [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, despite delays, are expected to benefit gold as the market expects three rate cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - The weakening of US dollar credibility due to rising debt levels and high interest costs on government debt is driving central banks to increase gold purchases [2] - Global demand for gold ETFs has surged, with Q1 2025 demand nearly matching the record $111 billion set in Q4 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins remains robust, reaching 325 tons, which is 15% higher than the five-year quarterly average, with China being a key growth driver in this segment [2] Group 3 - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the upcoming week include US Q1 GDP and April PCE data, as well as any changes in tariff policies [3]
美元信用边际递减不可逆转
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-05-26 09:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the weakening of the US dollar index is primarily due to Trump's tariff policies, which pose significant risks to the global and US economies [1][12] - The US dollar's status as the dominant global currency has been undermined by persistent trade and fiscal deficits, leading to a gradual erosion of its creditworthiness [2][5] - Trump's tariff policies aim to reverse trade deficits and encourage capital repatriation to US manufacturing, but they disrupt global trade and could ultimately harm the dollar's international status [3][4] Group 2 - The US fiscal deficit has reached unprecedented levels, with the federal deficit hitting $1.83 trillion in the last fiscal year and projected to exceed $1 trillion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [6][8] - The reliance on debt issuance has led to a vicious cycle of increasing fiscal deficits and rising interest payments, which are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in the 2024 fiscal year [6][7] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and projections suggest it could increase by another $20 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [7] Group 3 - Inflation risks are exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to increased costs for consumers and further damage the dollar's credibility [8][9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that even a 10% tariff could raise US inflation rates to 3%, indicating a significant impact on the economy [9] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects concerns about long-term inflation trends, which could further undermine the dollar's value [10][11] Group 4 - The market is adjusting to the potential for economic downturns, with rising yields on US Treasury bonds indicating long-term concerns about the US economy [13][14] - The perception of the dollar as a safe haven is shifting, with investors increasingly viewing it as a risk asset rather than a refuge, leading to a decline in the dollar index [14][15] - The collective shift in investor sentiment reflects a broader loss of confidence in the dollar's creditworthiness, which may be difficult to restore even with policy changes [15]
黄金蓄力爆发!皇御贵金属炒黄金优惠再升级,新客享多重好礼
Cai Fu Zai Xian· 2025-05-26 02:44
步入年中,黄金市场多空力量激烈博弈,尽管短期价格波动加剧,但从基本面到政策面,多重利好因素 正为黄金的长期价值提供坚实支撑。当前金价震荡格局为投资者提供了绝佳的布局窗口,皇御贵金属平 台(bibgw.top/XZMPz8)同步推出如"免费领取18美元"、"自助申请50000美元赠金"、"交易回赠$26/手点 差"等多重新客福利,助投资者轻松布局,抓取行情红利! 1. 地缘风险与关税不确定性"双保险" 全球地缘时政局势持续紧张,中东冲突反复、俄乌和谈进展缓慢,叠加市场对"全球贸易战2.0"的担忧 不断升温。与此同时,美联储主席鲍威尔近期坦言"关税对经济的影响远超预期",进一步加剧了市场对 政策不确定性的焦虑。历史经验表明,地缘冲突与贸易摩擦的叠加效应往往推动资金涌入黄金,使其成 为对冲风险的核心工具。 A:新客登录用户中心,激活交易账户,并一键参与积分活动,达标可领取1800积分福利! Q:通过什么方式获得赠金? 2. 降息预期与美元信用的长期角力 尽管美联储5月会议维持利率不变,但美国经济数据疲软、债务率攀升至124%,因此市场仍押注年内降 息1-2次。在降息预期下,实际利率下行将直接削弱美元吸引力,而黄金作 ...
美元霸权崩塌倒计时!黄金新一轮牛市卷土重来?
对冲研投· 2025-05-23 11:42
黄金又一次成为市场焦点。4月8日之后伦敦金先以几乎100美元/天的速度迈向3500美元关口,但之后的一个月陷入了快速波动期。 回首过去三年黄金里程碑式的牛市,每盎司金价从2000美元到2500美元耗时1466天,从2500美元到3000美元耗时207天,从3000美 元到3500美元仅耗时35天。 屡创新高后又出现大幅回调,黄金还能买么? 01 黄金的传统投资者有哪些? 据世界黄金协会统计,过去10年间全球黄金需求在4500吨-5000吨左右,其中投资需求(包括实物黄金、黄金ETF、OTC)占近一半。 投资需求主要来自四类主体——央行及主权基金、配置型机构、交易型机构、散户,过去三年这四类主体各不相同的购买节奏对应了黄金 驱动因素的变化。 今年一季度推高黄金价格的主要需求来自于黄金ETF所代表的交易型资金(机构+散户),在2022Q2-2024Q2连续九个季度净抛售后, 于2024年下半年方才重返市场,但在2025年一季度大买552吨(同比+170%)。 其次是实物黄金需求,一季度达到了325吨,高于近五年季度均值15%,来自中国地区的实物黄金需求是重要支撑。 央行购金规模的中枢在2022年三季度后明显上了一 ...
宋雪涛:混沌不休,黄金不止
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-05-23 05:38
除非美国能够真正提高生产效率和财政效率,让经济脱离滞胀的轨道,让美元全球公认的 储备货币地位得以维持,否则黄金还会有卷土重来的时候。 文:国金宏观宋雪涛 黄金又一次成为市场焦点。4月8日之后伦敦金先以几乎100美元/天的速度迈向3500美元关口,但之 后的一个月陷入了快速波动期。 回首过去三年黄金里程碑式的牛市,每盎司金价从2000美元到2500美元耗时1466天,从2500美元到 3000美元耗时207天,从3000美元到3500美元仅耗时35天。 屡创新高后又出现大幅回调,黄金还能买么? | 每盎司金价里程碑 | 首次触及日期 | 距离上一里程碑的天数 | ~年数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 100美元 | 1973/9/28 | | | | 500美元 | 1981/3/16 | 2726 | 7.5 | | 1000美元 | 2008/3/14 | 9860 | 27.0 | | 1500美元 | 2011/4/20 | 1132 | 3.1 | | 2000美元 | 2020/8/18 | 3408 | 9.3 | | 2500美元 | 2024/8/23 | 146 ...
机构看金市:5月21日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 05:41
·FXStreet:多重利多因素推动黄金反弹预计金价将延续反弹趋势 【机构分析】 ·混沌天成期货表示,美元指数再次下破100的关键位置,美债和美股也出现了一定程度的下跌,在地缘 的进一步驱动下贵金属明显抬升。主要主权国家的长期债券伴随着供应增加和需求转弱都遭遇到了利率 上行的问题,这个一定程度上增加了市场风险,削弱了货币信用从而支撑贵金属的上行,特别是黄金。 此外,地缘形势仍不容忽视,这对贵金属利好。现阶段,市场消息面影响较大,恐慌情绪暂时被抑制但 未完全消散,市场的波动性仍较大,风险仍保持并支撑贵金属走势。 ·金瑞期货表示,近期美国经济软数据走弱,美国贸易谈判暂无新的进展,地缘方面俄乌谈判无果,且 美国再次被下调主权信用评级,各方面利多因素再次发酵,贵金属转向偏强。且中长期来看,市场关税 对经济的潜在负面影响并未解除,黄金的避险多头逻辑依然存在,叠加各国央行存在持续买入需求,预 计价格仍有上行空间。若后续美国经济出现实质性走弱信号可能引发避险情绪反复,为贵金属价格提供 新的上行动力。综合来看,预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下偏强震荡。 ·混沌天成期货:恐慌情绪未完全消散贵金属显著回升 ·金瑞 ...
金价大反攻!现货黄金重新触及3300美元/盎司
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 02:41
Group 1 - Gold prices surged again, breaking the $3,300 per ounce mark for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a negative GDP growth in the US, which increased safe-haven demand [1] - Since May 19, spot gold has been on the rise, following a significant correction after reaching a historical high before the May Day holiday, with a notable drop of 2.23% on May 14 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a strong performance in gold and jewelry consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% in April for gold and jewelry, and a 38.6% increase in the average closing price of AU9999 gold [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures believes that the current adjustment in gold prices is a short-term trend, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact, influenced by a combination of rising inflation and economic downturn in the US [2] - According to Founder Securities, while gold prices are currently high, the easing of trade tensions may lead to profit-taking by investors and a slowdown in central bank purchases, potentially causing a short-term price correction [2] - Citigroup has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3,500 to $3,150, indicating a 10% decrease, and predicts that gold prices will oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300 in the near term [4]