Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are under pressure from multiple factors, including potential supply increases and limited geopolitical premiums, despite seasonal demand expectations for refined oil products [1] Industry Summary - Geopolitical premiums are providing some support, but potential supply increases are suppressing oil prices [1] - The third accelerated production increase by OPEC+ may impact the market [1] - Trade tensions are expected to lead to long-term demand suppression [1] Company Summary - U.S. oil production stands at 13.392 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.04% and a year-on-year change of 2.23% [1] - U.S. net crude oil imports are at 2.582 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.45% and a year-on-year increase of 33.57% [1] - U.S. refinery throughput is 16.49 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.54% and a year-on-year change of 0.05% [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rate is at 90.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [1] - China's major refinery utilization rate is 73.26%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points [1] - Shandong independent refineries have a utilization rate of 46.09%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 9.0 percentage points [1] Inventory Summary - U.S. total oil inventory (excluding SPR) is 1.223 billion barrels, compared to 1.218 billion barrels the previous week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.19% [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is 444.3 million barrels, compared to 442 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [1] - U.S. gasoline inventory is 226 million barrels, compared to 225 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.57% [1] - U.S. distillate inventory is 104 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.80% [1] - European crude oil inventory is 56.794 million barrels, compared to 55.133 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.60% [1] - European refined oil inventory is 5.18 million barrels, compared to 5.265 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.07% [1] - Global floating storage is 88.198 million barrels, compared to 83.761 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.08% [1] Price Spread Summary - The crack spread in the U.S. Gulf Coast is $21.61 per barrel, down from $22.91 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 14.84% [1] - The Brent transatlantic crack spread is $26.26 per barrel, down from $26.56 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 21.53% [1] - The Middle East crack spread is $13.71 per barrel, up from $12.52 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 10.11% [1] - The Southeast Asia crack spread is $12.40 per barrel, up from $11.76 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 34.99% [1] Price Differential Summary - The WTI 1-6 month spread is $1.69 per barrel, down from $1.95 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent 1-6 month spread is $1.37 per barrel, up from $1.27 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent-WTI spread is $3.24 per barrel, down from $3.38 per barrel the previous week [1] - The EFS is $1.79 per barrel, up from $1.54 per barrel the previous week [1] - The SC-BRENT spread is -$1.07 per barrel, down from -$0.70 per barrel the previous week [1]

国内到岸价整体回落，5月上半月集中到岸导致华东阵容率继续走高,码头降价出货。进口成本支撑松动盈加烧 厂外放有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始重启,关注化工 需求回升的节奏。现货端承压延续,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱, SG07合约日内跌2.1%%。昨日有消息称OPEC+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1万桶/天速度 快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as unexpected increases in US crude and fuel inventories, changes in Chinese crude processing, and Iraqi oil production, and will continue to oscillate [1] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by import - export volumes, supply - demand relationships of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, and cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The LU - FU price difference has shown an inflection point, and the strategy of narrowing the spread can be continued [2] - Asphalt prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and demand. It may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2][4] - Polyester product prices are affected by factors such as device maintenance, production load adjustment, and PX supply. In the short term, both PTA and ethylene glycol will be treated with an oscillating mindset [4] - Rubber prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, anti - dumping investigations, and raw material prices, and will oscillate in the short term [6] - Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply, MTO device operation, and inventory levels, and price volatility may increase [6][8] - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply (upstream maintenance) and demand (tariff reduction), and will maintain an oscillating trend [8] - PVC prices are affected by supply (device maintenance and resumption) and demand (real - estate construction), and are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Wednesday, WTI new July contract closed down $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel (down 0.74%), Brent July contract closed down $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel (down 0.72%), and SC2507 closed at 463.1 yuan per barrel, down 5.1 yuan per barrel (down 1.09%) [1] - EIA data showed that last week, US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443.16 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a 1.3 - million - barrel decrease. Cushing crude inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels to 23.44 million barrels. US net crude imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day, reaching a six - week high. SPR inventories increased by 743,000 barrels to 400.493 million barrels [1] - In April, China's industrial crude processing slowed down, with processed crude oil of 58.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. From January to April, processed crude oil was 240.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [1] - In 2025, Iraq's crude oil production was 3.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared to 2024, and exports were about 3.7 million barrels per day, a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Fuel Oil - On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.29% to 3,074 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 rose 0.25% to 3,571 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, China imported 1.8274 million tons of fuel oil, a month - on - month increase of 32.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.87%; exported 1.7725 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [2] - In May, the arrival of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes decreased. Before June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight, and the demand is also satisfactory. For high - sulfur fuel oil, with the increase in summer power - generation demand and the strong performance of the downstream bunker market, inventories are gradually being digested [2] Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.06% to 3,537 yuan per ton [2] - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, this week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.64%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.80%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 32.5%, a decrease of 3.34% from last week [2] - From the perspective of June's refinery production schedule, with profit recovery, supply may further increase. However, next week, some refineries' production conversion and shutdown may temporarily lead to a decline in the operating rate. In terms of demand, the concentrated delivery of refinery orders and the start of northern terminal projects support the rigid demand to some extent, but the demand in the southern region is average, and with the upcoming rainy season, the terminal demand will be further suppressed [2] Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,788 yuan per ton yesterday, up 1.18%; the spot offer was at a premium of 125 yuan per ton over the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,414 yuan per ton, up 0.02%, with the basis decreasing by 1 yuan per ton to 88 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,508 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,766 yuan per ton, up 1.47%. The spot negotiation price was $836 per ton, equivalent to 6,932 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 30 yuan per ton to 196 yuan per ton [4] - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales estimate of about 40%. A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today, expected to last about 2 weeks. A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and the current ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a preliminary plan to start full - epoxy production in July. A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi ended maintenance yesterday, and the current load is around 50%. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow [4] Rubber - On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 120 yuan per ton to 14,820 yuan per ton, the NR main contract closed down 200 yuan per ton to 12,715 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract closed down 170 yuan per ton to 11,900 yuan per ton [6] - As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons (0.96%) from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week [6] - On May 21, 2025, the European Commission officially launched an anti - dumping investigation into new passenger cars and light - truck pneumatic rubber tires imported from China. At the beginning of the domestic and overseas rubber - tapping season, the production is low, and heavy rainfall in overseas production areas has disrupted tapping, providing support for raw material prices. Rubber imports have increased year - on - year, and inventories in Qingdao have slightly decreased [6] Methanol - On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,320 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,037.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $256 - 260 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335 per ton. Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,115 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,530 - 2,580 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 4,985 yuan per ton [6] - Due to an increase in domestic plant maintenance, methanol supply has decreased but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas, the operating load of Iranian plants has dropped to about 70%, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is still recovering. Overall, the operation of MTO plants has changed little, the port inventory level is low, and the inland inventory level is also not high. Future attention should be paid to the restart plan of MTO plants and changes in Iranian plants, and methanol price volatility may increase [6][8] Polyolefins - On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7,150 - 7,350 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 44.83 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of coal - based PP was 1,110.33 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of methanol - based PP was - 564 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP was - 746.74 yuan per ton, and the production gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP was - 132.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the mainstream price of HDPE was 8,040 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 9,269 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,549 yuan per ton. The market gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was 76 yuan per ton, and the market gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,483 yuan per ton [8] - Currently, there is a lot of upstream maintenance, so the overall supply pressure is not high. In terms of demand, with the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises have increased their procurement of raw materials, and inventories have started to decline. In the short term, the fundamental pressure has been released, and the valuation of polyolefins has recovered. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so there is still pressure on the upside of polyolefin valuation, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8] PVC - On Wednesday, the price of the PVC market in East China oscillated and adjusted. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC was 4,750 - 4,880 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC was about 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, individual products were adjusted, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,680 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,150 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, the price changed little, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,880 - 4,940 yuan per ton and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,000 - 5,150 yuan per ton [8] - Maintenance plants will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the construction of domestic real - estate projects has temporarily stabilized, maintaining the operating rates of pipes and profiles at a relatively stable level. However, as real - estate construction gradually enters the off - season, demand will gradually weaken. Overall, in the short term, due to maintenance disruptions, the fundamental pressure has been released, but as plants gradually resume production, PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that last week, US crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13] - Trade and shipping data showed that with the increase in production, Russia's seaborne fuel - oil and vacuum - gasoil exports in April increased by 8.5% from the previous month to about 4 million tons. Russia's offline primary refining capacity last month was 2.91 million tons, a 21% decrease from March, leading to an increase in fuel supply [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report presents various charts, including the closing prices of main contracts, basis of main contracts, spreads of inter - period contracts, spreads of inter - variety contracts, and production profits, to visually display the price trends and relationships of different energy - chemical products [14][30][44][60][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude - oil, natural - gas, fuel - oil, asphalt, and shipping analyst Du Bingqin, the natural - rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [75] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

Gasoil月差结构(美元/吨) 50 25 40 20 15 10 5 0 0 -10 r -20 -10 -30 -15 202502 202505 2025 3DSCO2 1500 205504 707585 MI-M6 - M1-M6 - 41-M2 MI-M9 M1-M2 - - M1-M3 - - M1-M9 M1-M3 321裂解价差(美元/桶) 532裂解价差 (美元/桶) 70.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 000 0.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 - 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- -2021 - -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 202 -2021 - - 2025 亚洲石脑油裂解 (美元/桶) | 美国汽油裂解 (美元/桶) 20.00 70.00 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月30日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 4月29日 7322 | 4月28日 7353 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 -0.42% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 L2509 收盘价 | 7122 | 7164 | -31 -42 | -0.59% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7170 | 7195 | -25 | -0.35% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7092 | 7112 | -20 | -0.28% | | | L2505-2509 | 200 | 189 | 11 | 5.82% | | | PP2505-2509 | 78 | 83 | -5 | -6.02% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7230 | 7250 | -20 | -0.28% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7350 | -50 | -0.68% | | | 华北 L05基差 | 200 | ...