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管涛:“灵活高效”的货币政策意味着什么
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 11:16
Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy is shifting towards a "flexible and efficient use of various policy tools" to maintain ample liquidity, replacing the previous emphasis on "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" [1][14][17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Review of This Year's Monetary Policy Operations - The central political bureau meeting in December 2022 signaled a shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose," leading to a significant decline in the 10-year government bond yield, which fell by 88 basis points over the year, the largest drop in a decade [2][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a record low of below 1.6% after the New Year and Spring Festival [2]. Key Points for Next Year's Monetary Policy - The central economic work conference confirmed the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, addressing challenges such as external economic pressures and domestic supply-demand imbalances [14][15]. - The focus will be on enhancing policy "synergy," integrating monetary and fiscal policies, and ensuring that various economic policies align to stabilize growth and expectations [16][22]. Implementation of Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank has utilized a range of tools, including open market operations and medium-term lending facilities, resulting in a net monetary injection of 591.6 billion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, contrasting with a net withdrawal of 3.09 trillion yuan in the same period last year [7][11]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with social financing stock increasing by 8.5% [7]. Future Directions and Challenges - The central bank aims to balance growth and risk prevention, emphasizing the importance of a robust monetary policy framework and effective risk management [21][22]. - There is a need to enhance the transparency of monetary policy and improve communication mechanisms to boost social confidence [22].
不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头——对话财政部原副部长朱光耀
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-28 02:53
Economic Overview - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a growth rate that ranks among the highest globally [2][3] - The economic growth from 2020 to 2025 represents an increase of 40 trillion yuan, equivalent to over 5 trillion USD, which is comparable to creating the world's third-largest economy [2][3] - China's economy contributes around 17% to the global economy and has an average annual contribution rate of over 30% to global economic growth [2] Key Support Factors - The two major breakthroughs supporting this economic growth are the rapid development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, and the robust growth of the green economy [3] - The digital economy has empowered traditional industries, while emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum information have reached the world's top tier [3] - From 2012 to 2024, China's energy consumption grew at an average rate of 3.4%, supporting an average economic growth rate of 6.1%, with a reduction in carbon emission intensity of over 35% [3] Future Economic Projections - The expected actual growth rate for the 15th Five-Year Plan period is between 4.5% and 5%, with contributions from capital and labor inputs expected to exceed 3% [3] - The nominal growth rate could reach 7% if the actual growth rate of 5% is combined with a reasonable inflation rate of around 2% [3] Macroeconomic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including a fiscal deficit rate set at around 4% for 2025 and a local government special debt limit of 4.4 trillion yuan [6][7] - The focus of monetary policy will be on stabilizing prices, with a target inflation rate of around 2% to support economic recovery [6][7] International Trade and Relations - China has maintained its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years, with a projected goods trade volume of 6.16 trillion USD in 2024 [9] - Despite challenges, China's foreign trade remains resilient, with a total import and export value of 41.21 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [9] - The U.S. tariff policies pose risks to global trade, potentially undermining the multilateral trading system established post-World War II [8][9] Artificial Intelligence Sector - China is positioned as a global leader in artificial intelligence, with significant investment interest from international investors, particularly from Wall Street [12][14] - The country aims to leverage its advantages in application scenarios, data resources, and infrastructure to foster a competitive AI industry [14]
央行发布重磅报告 明确下一阶段金融工作重点
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-27 01:00
针对房地产金融,报告指出,中国人民银行将继续认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院部署,密切关注房地产市场及金融形势边际变化,抓好保障性住房再贷款等 已出台金融政策落实,加强房地产金融宏观审慎管理,稳妥有序完善房地产信贷基础性制度,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,助力构建房地产发展新模式。 【环球网财经综合报道】近日,中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告(2025)》,全面总结我国金融稳定工作进展,并对下一阶段重点任务作出部署。报 告提出,中国证监会、财政部、人力资源社会保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等相关部门将立足大局,加强协作,形成合力,在中央金融办统筹协调 下,进一步提升工作的前瞻性、主动性和针对性,着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度政策环境,显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资A股的规模和比例,努力 实现中长期资金保值增值、资本市场平稳健康运行与实体经济高质量发展的良性循环。 在利率市场化改革方面,报告明确,中国人民银行将持续深化利率市场化改革,更好发挥利率自律机制作用,推动利率"形得成"和"调得了"。在"形得成"方 面,引导金融机构切实提升自主理性定价能力,增强资产端和负债端利率调整的联动性;在"调得了"方面,引导金融机 ...
央行定调适度宽松 超3383亿资金注入市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 01:53
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to maintain ample liquidity and promote low social financing costs [1][3] - The meeting suggested leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies, utilizing various tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation, and adjusting the implementation of policies based on domestic and international economic conditions [3] - The chief economist of Industrial Bank, Lu Zhengwei, indicated that both traditional and innovative monetary policy tools have room for action, suggesting an increase in quotas and a reduction in interest rates for effective tools [3] Group 2 - As of December 25, the swap facility tool has been executed twice, with a total amount of 105 billion yuan. A total of 708 listed companies have disclosed 784 repurchase and increase loan plans, with a cumulative loan amount limit of 158.35 billion yuan [3] - Additionally, China Chengtong Holdings and China Guoxin Holdings announced plans to use 180 billion yuan for stock repurchase and increase loan funds, bringing the total loan amount limit for stock repurchase and increase to 338.35 billion yuan [3] - The meeting also emphasized the need to assess the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, monitor changes in long-term yields, enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3]
博时市场点评12月25日:沪指继续上涨,军工板块活跃
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 08:38
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a seven-day consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1][4][10] - The defense and military industry sector has shown strong performance, leading the market for two consecutive days [1][4] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the need for continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][8] - The PBOC's new approach shifts from increasing the intensity of monetary policy control to leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies, utilizing various tools for enhanced monetary policy regulation [1][2][8] Real Estate Policy - Beijing has introduced new real estate policies effective from December 24, 2025, reducing the social security or tax payment duration for non-Beijing residents purchasing homes within the Fifth Ring Road from three years to two years, and from two years to one year for homes outside the Fifth Ring Road [2][3][9] - The policy also supports multi-child families, allowing them to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring Road [3][9] Foreign Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog (2025 Edition)," effective from February 1, 2026, which adds 205 new items and modifies 303 items compared to the 2022 version [3][9] - The new catalog aims to attract foreign investment in advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy-saving sectors, particularly in the central and northeastern regions of China [3][9] Market Performance - As of December 25, 2025, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3959.62 points, up 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also recorded gains [4][10] - The defense and military sector, along with light manufacturing and machinery equipment, led the gains among industry sectors, with increases of 2.91%, 1.59%, and 1.51% respectively [4][10]
央行最新例会:继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-25 03:00
会议认为,今年以来宏观调控力度加大,货币政策适度宽松,持续发力、适时加力,强化逆周期调节, 综合运用多种货币政策工具,服务实体经济高质量发展,为经济稳中向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。贷 款市场报价利率改革效能持续释放,存款利率市场化调整机制作用有效发挥,货币政策传导效率增强, 社会融资成本处于历史较低水平。外汇市场供求基本平衡,外汇储备充足,人民币汇率双向浮动,在合 理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。金融市场总体运行平稳。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势,认为当前外部环境变化影响加深,世界经济增长动能不足,贸易壁垒 增多,主要经济体经济表现有所分化,通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行总体平 稳、稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成效,但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。要继续实施适度宽 松的货币政策,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能,加强货 币财政政策协同配合,促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 12月24日,中国人民银行发布消息,中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度(总第111次)例会于 12月18日召开。 会议指出,要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用,推动中 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 02:57
Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter meeting in 2025, deciding to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and strengthening the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices [2] - On December 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, but the unemployment rate may remain high in December due to weak employment. As of the week ending December 20, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 [2] - In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. From January to November, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 9,460.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 8,856.7 billion kWh [2] - On December 23, the assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce, Zhang Li, chaired a round - table meeting for foreign trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry of Commerce will increase policy support to promote the innovative development of foreign trade and achieve a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan for foreign trade [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Focus - Key commodities to focus on are silver, Shanghai tin, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.21%, precious metals 34.91%, oilseeds and oils 7.85%, soft commodities 3.08%, non - ferrous metals 25.02%, coal, coke, steel and ore 10.10%, energy 2.24%, chemicals 10.07%, grains 1.17%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.35% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of different commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented in the chart, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel and ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind comprehensive commodities, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [6] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major stock indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index daily change 0.53%, monthly change 1.35%, annual change 17.58%; SSE 50 daily change - 0.08%, monthly change 1.87%, annual change 12.68%; CSI 300 daily change 0.29%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change 17.77%; CSI 500 daily change 1.31%, monthly change 4.56%, annual change 28.40%; S&P 500 daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.89%, annual change 17.48%; Hang Seng Index daily change 0.17%, monthly change - 0.15%, annual change 28.71%; German DAX daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.11%, annual change 22.26%; Nikkei 225 daily change - 0.14%, monthly change 0.18%, annual change 26.19%; UK FTSE 100 daily change 0.00%, monthly change 1.74%, annual change 21.00% [7] Fixed - income - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major bond futures are as follows: 10 - year bond futures daily change 0.02%, monthly change 0.27%, annual change - 0.64%; 5 - year bond futures daily change - 0.01%, monthly change 0.26%, annual change - 0.48%; 2 - year bond futures daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.14%, annual change - 0.44% [7] Commodities - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major commodities are as follows: CRB commodity index daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change 1.67%; WTI crude oil daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.09%, annual change - 18.73%; London spot gold daily change 0.00%, monthly change 6.31%, annual change 70.91%; LME copper daily change 0.00%, monthly change 7.87%, annual change 37.28%; Wind commodity index daily change 3.07%, monthly change 18.07%, annual change 57.97% [7] Others - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of other assets are as follows: US dollar index daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 1.54%, annual change - 9.75%; CBOE volatility index daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 14.37%, annual change - 19.31% [7] Group 4: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premiums of the A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals), SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [8]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20251225
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][4]. - Copper: The external market is strong while the domestic market is weak, which restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][17]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range; Alumina is bottom - sideways; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: The overseas market is closed, and a correction is to be watched out for [2][22]. - Palladium: Investment sentiment has shifted, and a large - scale decline is expected [2][23]. - Nickel: There is capital game on the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and there are disturbances from news about Indonesian nickel mines [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2602 showed varying degrees of increase, with daily increases of 1.34%, 1.44%, and 0.77% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375, while that of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 42,965 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,995 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 114,168 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy; the Beijing property market has new policies; the US employment market has warmed up [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2602 all rose, with daily increases of 1.50%, 1.52%, and 3.65% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 1,805 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 3,083,409 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, and the Silver LOF hit the daily limit again during the session [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 2.31%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 297,908, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 8,111 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,679 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation; Glencore acquired a copper project in Peru; Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners; Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased; China's copper ore imports increased [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.61%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 37,673, and the LME Zinc trading volume increased by 2,888 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 1,068 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons [11]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China's policy and hints from the US Treasury Secretary about the Fed's future direction [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 1.35%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 23,412, and the LME Lead trading volume increased by 2,053 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 152 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including the People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1.27%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 11,222, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 655 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, and France passed a short - term budget to avoid a government shutdown [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,330 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957 US dollars/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 85,119. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,554 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inventory and Cost**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,823.24 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: The US dollar may have its worst year since 2003, and the Japanese finance minister hinted at possible intervention in the yen [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased, while the trading volume of NYMEX Palladium increased [23]. - **Inventory and ETF**: The platinum ETF inventory increased by 5,271 ounces, and the palladium ETF inventory decreased by 384 ounces [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: News about international relations and China's central bank's policy [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,095,331 [28]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implemented sanctions on mining companies and adjusted policies related to nickel mines [28][29][31].
国泰君安期货所长早读-20251225
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity: +2)**: None - **Bullish (Trend Intensity: +1)**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Bean Meal [49][185] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Platinum, Palladium, MEG, Logs, PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Hogs, Peanuts [16][19][81][185] - **Bearish (Trend Intensity: -1)**: Carbonate Lithium, Platinum, Palladium [42][52] - **Strongly Bearish (Trend Intensity: -2)**: None 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Macroeconomic Policy The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting decided to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Silver**: Although there is a short - term adjustment demand at high levels, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the unsolvable global inventory contradiction. There is a possibility of intensified contradictions until 2026 [8]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental situation is weak, but news and capital disturbances are intensifying. There is a risk of a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. There are also structural opportunities, such as internal - external positive spreads and nickel - iron and futures spreads [10]. - **MEG**: Affected by the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant next month, the price increased. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - **Central Bank Policy**: The Q4 2025 meeting of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee decided to continue the moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [7]. - **Recommended by the Director**: Silver is highly recommended, with recent price fluctuations driven by macro - liquidity and the performance of platinum and palladium. Nickel has a weak fundamental situation but potential for a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. MEG rose due to the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant [8][10][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [16]. - **Silver**: High - level adjustment is expected, with a long - term upward trend supported by inventory contradictions [8]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is strong overseas but weak domestically, limiting price increases [23]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation [26]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price [29]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted [32]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, while alumina is at the bottom and moving sideways [36]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - **Nickel**: There is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news [45]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, and the price trend is upward [81]. - **MEG**: The valuation has bottomed out and rebounded, but there is medium - term pressure [82]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly [83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is entering an oscillating phase with weak current situation and strong expectations [86]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable [89]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is a short - term rebound, but the height is limited [177]. - **Soybean Oil**: The impact of US soybeans is limited, and range - bound operation is recommended [177]. - **Bean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose, and Dalian bean meal may rebound and oscillate [183]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [186]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis [190]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [195]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [202]. - **Hogs**: Speculative demand has been fulfilled [204]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [209].
政策要闻丨中央经济工作会议定调“着力稳定房地产市场”(12.8
中指研究院· 2025-12-25 00:52
更多政策解读、城市月报、房企研究报告 ..... | 中指云 就在 N 中指 · 政策要闻|中央经济工作会议定 调"着力稳定房地产市场"(12.8- 12. 14) 政策要闻丨中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"(12.8-12.14) 摘要:中央政治局会议强调加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,宏观政策保持积极基调;中央 经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"。河南、重庆、山东等多省市发布"十五五" 规划建议,因地制宜部署房地产工作;宁夏等多地优化公积金贷款政策,扩大提取适用范 围;山东发布住房"以旧换新"指导意见,打通新房、二手房市场。 1. 中央:中央经济工作会议召开,定调"着力稳定房地产市场" 要闻一:中央政治局会议强调加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,宏观政策保持积极基调 12月8日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究2026年经济工作。其中强调"实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策""继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,发挥 存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。"并强调"坚持守牢底线,积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"。整体基调与 2025 年宏观 定调基本一致, ...