保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index fell by 2.86% as of January 30, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Fostar, while Nanshan Aluminum experienced the largest decline [1] - CICC pointed out that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum continues to widen, and with global fiscal and monetary policies resonating, aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs, with profit per ton of aluminum likely to expand as prices rise [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that while copper prices are currently affected by macro sentiment and AI-related demand adjustments, the long-term outlook remains strong due to ongoing tight supply of copper mines and declining spot processing fees [1] Group 2 - The National Grid's fixed asset investment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which supports the copper price outlook [1] - Yingda Securities emphasized the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent policy directions, suggesting a focus on technology growth stocks with earnings support, as well as cyclical varieties, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index as of December 31, 2025, include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, accounting for 51.95% of the index [2]

Market Overview - In January, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a general upward trend, with major A-share indices rising, particularly the Sci-Tech 50, which increased by 15.8% [4] - The Hong Kong market also showed a positive trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 5.8% and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 4.3% as of January 27, 2026 [4] A-share Insights - The recommendation for investors is to maintain a stable position and hold stocks through the holiday, anticipating a new market trend post-Spring Festival [5] - The upcoming spring market is expected to be promising, with potential positive news in both policy and fundamentals over the next few months [5] - Focus areas include growth sectors such as humanoid robots, AI industry chain, gaming, and film, alongside cyclical sectors benefiting from strong commodity prices and policy support [5] Hong Kong Stock Insights - The overall trend in the Hong Kong market remains positive due to earnings recovery, improved liquidity, low valuations, and policy support [6] - The market is transitioning from being driven by funds to being driven by performance, with a structural rebound expected in the first quarter [6] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests capturing structural opportunities amidst market volatility, focusing on the AI industry chain and defensive assets like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and insurance for stable returns [7]

Group 1 - The cash flow ETF (159399) rose over 0.9%, with a focus on cyclical sectors and the digital economy [1] - In terms of industry allocation, cyclical sectors are expected to benefit from anti-involution policies and economic recovery, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which may see improved conditions and sustained rebounds [1] - The digital economy is highlighted as a key area of investment, driven by technology and policy support, with specific attention to sub-sectors such as computing power, cybersecurity, data elements, industrial digitalization, and digital currency [1] Group 2 - The cash flow index has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments [1] - Investors interested in the cash flow ETF may consider it for its consistent performance and dividend evaluation [1]

今天有三个不相信，第一个是沪金主力一天可以涨7.88%，这可是商品期货，带杠杆的，而且此前已经有不少的涨幅，有人说这种加速是对手盘被动止损产 生的反向回补，但情况是这玩儿是国际定价，并不是我们黄金市场限制交易就能理解的，国外黄金涨了你不跟着涨？所以黄金已经看不懂。有研究员说，顺 周期涨价顺序是黄金—白银—基础金属—石油—化工—农业，里面没有黑色金属，因为黑色金属并不是国际定价，大家真要看好顺周期别往钢铁潜伏就行， 其它的看运气。 第二个是白酒，今天板块涨幅9.68%，白酒昨天还在创历史新低，突然来了一根这么大的阳线，你说是超跌反弹也行，你说是行业拐点也行，反正短周期趋 势被打断，就算再创新低，估计两周内不可能出现了，然后不少踏空的开始酸白酒踏空，我觉得没有必要，除非你昨天真的感觉白酒要启动，否则今年持有 白酒，依旧是亏损的，更别说是一直持有的。 第三个是大佬改游戏规则了，十点没有砸盘，涨0.5%也没有砸盘，而是横盘，成交量最大的时候砸盘，可能大家都被这个节奏吓坏了，于是今天是本周第 四天3000+待涨的情况，而且上证50，沪深300涨幅超过0.5%，可指数没涨，所以中小盘成为代价，现在开始精准打击题材，但筹码 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 相关报告 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 传媒酿酒行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 《市场分析：煤炭有色行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2026-01-28 《市场分析：金融半导体领涨 A 股小幅上 行 》 2026-01-27 《市场分析：金融有色行业领涨 A 股小幅整 ——市场分析 理 》 2026-01-26 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政 策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期 变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期 收紧；海外波动加剧。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共7页 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周四（01 月 29 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上行，早盘股 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rally in the liquor and real estate sectors, with the liquor index rising over 9% and several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Guizhou Moutai which increased by over 8% [1] - The liquor index had previously dropped to 2532.899 points, marking a decline of over 24% since early 2025, while the real estate sector had risen over 26% during the same period [1] - Both liquor and real estate are considered cyclical sectors, with their last simultaneous surge occurring during the "924" market rally, where the real estate index rose over 28% and the liquor sector over 36% within five trading days [1] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities indicates that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with low valuations and high dividends providing support for stock prices, and anticipates an upward turning point as channel inventories clear [2] - Guojin Securities notes positive changes in the real estate market since the beginning of 2026, with increased transaction volumes and stabilization in second-hand housing prices, marking a departure from previous trends [2] - The current improvement in the real estate market is characterized by a lack of optimization policies and a decrease in the number of second-hand listings in key cities, contrasting with past market recoveries [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing significant structural characteristics with accelerated sector rotation, highlighting the importance of efficient and high-quality information for investment decisions [1] Group 1: Key Features of "Pre-Market Gold" - The service provides a concise summary of market insights before trading begins, focusing on areas that may present investment opportunities [1][6] - It delivers rapid updates on major brokerage opinions, allowing investors to quickly understand what large funds are focusing on [2] - The service curates 1-2 high-potential thematic opportunities daily, analyzing event catalysts, industry logic, and capital movements [3] Group 2: Information Filtering - The service filters out noise from macro and industry news, highlighting key information that truly impacts sectors and stock prices [4] - It organizes critical company announcements from the night and early morning, capturing valuable signals and potential market reactions [5] Group 3: Advantages of Choosing "Pre-Market Gold" - The service saves time by providing a brief that replaces hours of information gathering and reading [6] - It focuses on practical content directly related to secondary market investments, offering actionable decision-making information [7] - The service integrates authoritative sources from brokerages, media, and company announcements to minimize information loss [8] - It aims to establish a systematic pre-market preparation habit by providing timely updates every trading day [9] Group 4: Recent Content Preview - Recent highlights include a resurgence in brokerage earnings, the breakthrough of Shanghai's intelligent computing scale, and a focus on performance lines amid market adjustments [10] - Other notable mentions are the rise in storage chip prices, increased gold demand due to seasonal consumption, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing sectors [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing clear industry differentiation, with a notable contrast between the steadily rising cyclical "five flowers" and the weakening high dividend yield sector, reflecting the competition for funds driven by technological growth prospects and domestic demand policy stimulation [1]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials have seen a company adjustment ratio of 200%, 171%, and 250% respectively, indicating a positive outlook due to fiscal infrastructure efforts and demand-side stimulus [2]. - The non-bank sector has a company adjustment ratio of 1200%, highlighting the importance of short-term insurance premium growth and mid-term investment income enhancement for performance [2]. - In the technology sector, the adjustment ratios for electric new energy, telecommunications, and electronics are 133%, 163%, and 130% respectively, with a focus on clear performance growth trends in satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, storage devices, optical modules, and circuit boards [2]. Group 2: Economic Perspectives - The core of the physical re-inflation logic is based on three perspectives: price increases must be accompanied by liquidity activation, supply clearing due to anti-involution, and demand-side stimulation [1].

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in the A-share market, with fund managers adjusting their portfolios to include cyclical sectors like coal, oil and gas, and transportation to balance their holdings [1] - As of January 27, 2025, 1,201 A-share companies disclosed their annual performance forecasts, with 475 companies expecting positive results and 107 companies predicting a doubling of net profits year-on-year [2] - The public fund of funds (FOF) has shown a significant preference for resource-related assets, with the Huaan Gold ETF being heavily favored in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a trend towards resource investment [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has become a key focus for public funds, with 26 new products reported in 2026, primarily targeting technology, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors, and a notable net inflow of nearly 30 billion yuan into Hong Kong-themed ETFs [4] - The gold and jewelry industry is expected to undergo significant changes in 2026 due to high gold prices, leading to a shift from price competition to value competition, favoring high-quality development [5] - The private equity fund management scale reached a record high of 22.15 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with private securities investment funds being the main contributors to new registrations [7] Group 3 - Several listed brokerages have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with net profits expected to grow significantly, indicating a strong performance across the brokerage sector [8] - Over 150 companies are projected to achieve record high net profits in 2025, with the electronics industry being the largest contributor, highlighting a robust recovery in various sectors [9] - Nearly 1,250 companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with a median net profit exceeding 173 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 100% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a strong market recovery [10] Group 4 - Insurance capital is increasingly investing in private equity funds, with China Life announcing significant investments in two funds, reflecting a trend towards diversifying asset allocation [11] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to expand the scale of entrusted investments for basic pension insurance funds, indicating ongoing reforms in social security systems [12] - In 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.6% compared to 2024, with a notable recovery in December, particularly in the manufacturing sector [13][14]