Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting technology stocks and AI-related investments [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, the Hong Kong stock market opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.55% [1][2] - Major tech stocks such as Bilibili, Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan saw gains of over 1%, indicating strong market sentiment [1][3] Group 2: AI and Internet Sector Developments - Alibaba's recent collaboration with Meta to optimize its AI model through the Qianwen platform is expected to accelerate growth in Alibaba's AI applications [3] - Analysts from CITIC Securities express optimism about the internet sector's cyclical attributes combined with the upward trend in AI, suggesting that major players will likely benefit from AI advancements [3] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 238 million yuan over five consecutive days, reflecting growing investor interest in AI and tech stocks [1][3] Group 3: ETF and Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index and has a significant allocation to leading companies in AI and cloud computing, with over 73% of its top ten holdings in this sector [3] - The ETF has a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of over 600 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity and investor engagement [3] - For investors seeking to balance technology exposure with stability, the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) offers a diversified strategy that includes both high-growth tech stocks and stable dividend-paying companies [5]

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 12月9日早盘，A股市场震荡调整，中证石化产业指数盘中跌约0.8%，成分股巨化股份、三美股 份、蓝晓科技等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日合计"吸金"1321万元。 国泰海通研报观点称，在较长时间横盘震荡后，中国股市将进入跨年攻势。今年12月至明年2月是 中国政策、流动性、基本面向上共振的窗口期，指数有望迈上新台阶。在行业配置层面，可关注顺周 期。调整三年后，估值与持仓处于低位，随着宏观尾部风险降低与潜在增量政策出台，结构性机会将出 现。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%。石化行业新一轮产能扩张周 期步入尾声，供需格局进入再平衡阶段，行业景气度 ...

周期论剑电话会议 顺周期跨年行情推荐 20251207 摘要 预计明年初货币政策可能宽松，金融监管总局下调保险公司权益入市风 险因子并拓宽券商资本空间，提升市场风险偏好。12 月至 2 月或是政策、 流动性和基本面向上共振的窗口期，建议关注科技成长、大金融和周期 类资产。 预计 2026 年全 A 股非金融业绩增长约 10.6%，股市盈利不再仅依赖传 统周期行业。未上市保险公司将在 2026 年实行新会计准则，预计保险 资金入市增量可能超过万亿，改善流动性环境。 重申航空板块前景乐观，预计 2025 年第四季度行业大幅减亏并全年扭 亏，2026 年需求增长将驱动票价和盈利上行，建议逆向布局航空超级 周期，包括国航、吉祥、东航、南航及春秋航空等公司。 预计第四季度及全年原油轮盈利创十年来新高，中东和南美原油增产效 应显现，印度缩减俄油进口驱动运价飙升。推荐中远海能、招商轮船、 招商南油、中国船舶租赁等公司。 化工板块目前处于底部状态，部分品种开始修复，反内卷政策推动带来 利好。应积极配置具备成本优势且新增产能带动业绩提升的龙头企业， 如煤化工龙头华鲁恒升。关注磷酸铁锂电解液、正丁醇、新醇等品种价 格上涨带来的投 ...

本周，大盘呈现探底回升的走势，上证综指上涨0.37%，深证成指上涨1.26%，创业板指上涨1.86%，科 创50指数下跌0.08%，沪深300指数上涨1.28%。对于下周市场，业内人士认为，经过近期连续调整，短 线做空动能逐步衰减，随着周五成交量逐步放大，大盘有望重拾升势。后市，投资者可继续跟踪工业金 属、航天装备、军工电子等板块的动向。 创业板指一周上涨近2% 本周是12月首个交易周，大盘呈现探底回升的走势。周一，股指收出小阳线;周二至周四，股指连续调 整，成交额逐步减少;周五，股指探底后企稳反弹，特别是午后，在保险、券商等金融股带动下，沪深A 股震荡收阳。本周，上证综指小幅上涨0.37%，深证成指上涨1.26%，创业板指上涨近2%。 根据同花顺数据统计，创业板指成份股中，本周涨幅前10位的分别是天孚通信、北京君正、长川科技、 新易盛、金力永磁、南大光电、指南针、怡合达、蓝思科技、中际旭创，其中，天孚通信本周大涨逾两 成。 12月3日公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月美国私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降 幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。贝莱德智库最新一期文章称，由于美国政府长期停 ...

Group 1: New Consumption - The report emphasizes the continuous exploration of new products, channels, and brand changes within the new consumption sector, highlighting the resilience of leading companies despite market concerns about revenue growth and profit realization in 2026 [8][15][9] - Key sectors include eyewear, with a focus on AI and AR technologies, recommending companies like 康耐特光学 for their innovative approaches [18][30] - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector is noted for its high growth potential, particularly with brands like 泡泡玛特 and their successful IP strategies [34][38] - The personal care and household cleaning segment is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of platforms like 抖音, which enhances brand visibility and sales conversion [54][55] Group 2: Export Chain - The report identifies the light industry export chain as a key area, emphasizing the importance of high pricing power, market diversification, and mature overseas production capabilities [10] - Recommendations include关注匠心家居, 共创草坪, and other companies that demonstrate strong performance in international markets [10] Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on quality leaders in the cyclical sector, particularly in home textiles and furniture, where companies like 水星家纺 and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their strong market positions [11][11] - The report notes the increasing differentiation within the home goods market, recommending companies that offer value and competitive pricing [11]

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Transsion Holdings (688036) leading the gain at 4.86% and GAC Group (601238) up by 3.78% [1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility as the year-end approaches, and CICC suggests maintaining a "barbell" strategy (dividend + technology internet) for portfolio allocation [1] - The management fee for the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index include Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Zijin Mining (601899), collectively accounting for 26.13% of the index [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has several off-market connection options, including Ping An's various linked funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, driven by improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, and policy catalysts, leading to a potential early start of the spring rally [1][9][11]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate that December will see a recovery in fundamental expectations and macro liquidity, with policy and industry themes catalyzing market movements [1][7]. - The market has been in a three-month consolidation phase, and the likelihood of an upward breakout to initiate a year-end rally is high [1][9]. - Investors maintain confidence in the medium to long-term market outlook, suggesting that the current bull market is not over [11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for the year-end rally, with a focus on strategic positioning around key events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference [2][8]. - Emphasis on large-cap stocks with stable earnings is expected to outperform in December, while a balanced allocation between growth and value styles is recommended [12]. - Key sectors to watch include traditional manufacturing, resource revaluation, and companies with overseas expansion potential [4][8]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is anticipated to rebound, particularly in areas with favorable cost-performance ratios, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and defense industries [6][7]. - The cyclical sectors, including basic chemicals and industrial technology, are expected to be foundational assets for the spring rally [5][6]. - Consumer sectors, particularly high-quality consumption like liquor and consumer building materials, are seen as mid-term investment opportunities [7][12].

Group 1 - The technology sector, led by computing power, continues to show strong momentum, with several AI-themed ETFs rising over 8% last week [1][2] - Major stocks in the communication and AI sectors, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and ZTE, saw price increases of over 10% [2] - The recent market fluctuations have led to increased trading activity in broad-based ETFs, with the A500 ETF recording a total transaction volume exceeding 130 billion yuan [5][6] Group 2 - Core assets have attracted incremental capital, with ETFs tracking the SSE 50 index seeing a net inflow of over 2.5 billion yuan last week [7] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF reached a new historical high in size, surpassing 6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of over 700 million yuan [7] - Several biotechnology-themed ETFs in the US have also seen their premium rates rise above 5%, marking historical highs since their inception [2] Group 3 - The trading volume for various ETFs tracking major indices was significant, with the A500 ETF leading at approximately 133.3 billion yuan, followed by the Hang Seng Technology ETF at around 73.1 billion yuan [6] - The recent adjustments to the sample indices for the CSI 300 and other indices are set to take effect on December 12, with notable changes in constituent stocks [9] - New ETFs tracking the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship AI Index have been launched, providing fresh investment opportunities in the tech sector [9]

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]