1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index. The market traded on the "buy the fact, sell the expectation" principle, causing copper prices to correct from their highs and give back gains. In the short term, copper prices found support at the 30 - day moving average and rebounded. With the upcoming National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut since December 2024, signaling the start of an interest - rate cut cycle. It was a "risk - management" move to balance inflation and employment risks. It is expected that there may be two more rate cuts this year, and the median interest rate may drop to 3.6% by the end of 2025. However, due to factors such as long - term tariff impacts and an unimproved job market, the US economy may face higher downside risks in 2026, and the actual number of rate cuts may be more. Powell's remarks dampened the market's pricing for a 50bp recession - style rate cut and a significant decline in the terminal interest rate. The Fed's rate cut provides room for China's domestic monetary policy, but in the short term, the central bank may prioritize fiscal stimulus, and the probability of a rate cut is low. The US dollar index rebounded to 97.36, back above the 97 mark [11]. - **China's August Macroeconomic Data**: Social financing reached a peak and then declined, with weak credit. In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 465.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, lower than the seasonal level. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 2.8%. The growth rate of industrial added value, consumption, and investment all slowed down, and PPI rebounded. The growth momentum needs to be strengthened [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: In August 2024, China imported 257.4 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import of copper concentrates was 1.8635 billion tons, a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. As of September 12, the port inventory was only 692,700 tons, 26.2% less than the average of the past three years. As of June 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons or 4.06% from May. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a 0.9% decrease from May. As of September 18, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - 41.3 dollars/ton, and the copper concentrate TC was - 41.4 dollars/ton, still at a historically low level, with the smelting processing fee deeply inverted [36]. - **Scrap Copper**: As of September 19, the scrap - refined copper price spread was 1,752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton from last Friday, with relatively small fluctuations. In July 2025, China's imports of copper waste and scrap reached 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.3355 million tons, a 0.77% year - on - year decrease. In July, the output of blister copper was 1.0413 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.64%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 6.9267 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.58%. In July, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 467,000 tons, a 12.72% year - on - year decrease. The domestic blister copper processing fee remained at 700 yuan/ton, and the CIF imported blister copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, at a historically low level [40]. - **Refined Copper**: In August, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China decreased by 28,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. From January to August, the cumulative output increased by 978,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 12.30%. In August, the copper smelting start - up rate was 87.97%, a 0.21% month - on - month decrease. In September, five smelters plan to conduct maintenance, involving a production capacity of 1 million tons. It is expected that the output of electrolytic copper will continue to decline in September. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [45]. - **Demand Side** - **Mid - and Downstream Industries**: In August, the output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output of copper products was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The start - up rates of mid - and downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in August. The latest weekly start - up rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.73%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.33%, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises was 65.84%, a 1.78% month - on - month decrease [52]. - **Terminal Demand**: From January to July, power grid project investment reached 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. Power source project investment reached 428.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.2GW. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the expected new installed capacity for this year to 270 - 300GW. In 2025 from January to August, the real estate market continued to bottom out. In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales. In September, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, and the online and offline sales of air conditioners and color TVs in the second week of September also declined year - on - year [59]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Short - Term Outlook**: With the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices corrected from their highs. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits [6][77]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: Copper is highly regarded in the long term as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced high-level fluctuations with rapid rotation of hotspots, but the technology sector remains strong, showing a divergence in funding sentiment between cautious main forces and optimistic leverage [1] - The ChiNext index benefited from strong performances in AI and new energy, while the large-cap index weakened in the latter half of the week [1] - Economic data for August showed an overall slowdown, with resilience on the production side and pressure on the demand side [1] Group 2 - The improvement in China-US relations continues, with expectations for further progress in trade and other areas following a conversation between the two leaders [2] - The AI sector remains active during the equity market adjustment period, indicating strong resilience and consensus among funds [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was anticipated, but the impact is limited as the market had already priced in this reduction [2] Group 3 - In the context of high cutting and low backgrounds, opportunities should be sought within technology growth sectors, with a focus on AI, innovative drugs, and non-ferrous metals [3] - Electric power equipment and solid-state batteries are expected to become new directions for technology growth, while the financial sector may see improvements in valuation and performance as market sentiment stabilizes [3] - Industries such as photovoltaics and aquaculture may benefit from policy focus and positive impacts, suggesting a potential for growth [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices reaching new highs. After the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, some investment funds took profits, causing precious metal prices to briefly pull back before rebounding strongly on Friday [2][5]. - Fed Chair Powell defined the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, mainly to address the weakening labor market, but he indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to initiate large - scale easing. The market's mixed interpretation of his remarks led to some capital outflows and a price correction [2][6]. - Although the Fed's rate cut was finalized, Powell's speech was seen as "releasing uncertainty signals", triggering some investors to take profits. However, recent geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine situation have enhanced gold's safe - haven appeal. The significant increase in gold ETF holdings and central banks' continuous gold purchases support the gold price, while silver's price has reached new highs due to its industrial properties and catch - up effect. Precious metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - **Gold**: SHFE gold closed at 830.56 yuan/gram, down 3.66 yuan (-0.44%); Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 826.00 yuan/gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.25%); COMEX gold closed at 3719.40 dollars/ounce, up 38.70 dollars (1.05%) [3]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver closed at 9971 yuan/kilogram, down 64 yuan (-0.64%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9940 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan (-0.54%); COMEX silver closed at 43.37 dollars/ounce, up 0.69 dollars (1.60%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. The FOMC statement recognized the weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. Powell said employment growth has slowed, and inflation is still slightly high [5]. - Powell's "risk management" statement and the mixed market interpretation led to some capital outflows and price corrections. Geopolitical tensions, increased gold ETF holdings, and central bank purchases support the upward trend of precious metal prices [2][6]. 3. Important Data Information - **US Economic Data**: The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 21 points to - 8.7; August retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month; new home starts in August decreased from 1.429 million to 1.307 million; building permits decreased from 1.362 million to 1.312 million; the MBA 30 - year mortgage rate dropped 10 basis points to 6.39%; initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 [8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%; the Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale; the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [9]. 4. Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 19, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, an increase of 19.76 tons from the previous week; the iShare silver holdings were 15,205.14 tons, an increase of 145.40 tons from the previous week [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on September 16, 2025, non - commercial net long positions were 266,410, an increase of 4,670 from the previous week; for silver futures, non - commercial net long positions were 51,538, a decrease of 2,399 from the previous week [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking a 25 basis point cut, which aligns with market expectations. This is the first rate cut since the Fed began its current easing cycle in September of last year, following three consecutive cuts in late 2022 and a pause from January to July of this year [1]. Group 1: Impact on Global Asset Allocation - The Fed's rate cut is expected to influence global capital flows, as changes in U.S. interest rates and the dollar's value will affect global liquidity [5][11]. - The resumption of rate cuts is likely to boost U.S. stock markets from both interest rate and economic fundamentals perspectives, although high valuations remain a concern. Non-U.S. markets may present more attractive valuations, leading to a continued trend of rebalancing between U.S. and non-U.S. assets [5][15]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets typically outperform developed markets, suggesting a potential for significant relative returns [5][15]. Group 2: Performance of Chinese Assets - Hong Kong stocks are expected to benefit from a shift in global liquidity and a turning point in mainland earnings. A-shares still exhibit a valuation discount, with potential for valuation recovery driven by global asset reallocation demands, particularly in technology stocks that are sensitive to liquidity [5][15]. - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to lower real interest rates, which could increase gold futures positions and support gold prices. Additionally, rising credit risks associated with the dollar may further drive the rebalancing of global central bank reserve assets [5][16]. Group 3: Changes in Global Reserve Assets - Since 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged, exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, indicating a significant shift in the demand landscape for gold as a reserve asset [9]. - The share of gold in global central bank reserves has surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996, reflecting a growing preference for gold amid concerns over U.S. economic policies [9][17]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index experienced a rebound, indicating market reactions to the perceived implications of the rate cut [12][13]. - The Fed's independence is under scrutiny due to political pressures, which could impact future monetary policy and the dollar's international credibility. A loss of independence may lead to a long-term decline in the dollar's value [13][14]. - The current economic policy environment in the U.S. is drawing comparisons to historical events that led to significant shifts in the dollar's strength, suggesting potential for ongoing volatility in the currency's value [14].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points indicates a shift in focus from combating persistent inflation to addressing economic growth and employment pressures [1] - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to facilitate global capital rebalancing, leading to increased foreign investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][2] - Manulife Investment's analysis suggests that the Fed's current stance is dovish, and future rate cuts may depend on upcoming US economic data [1] Group 2 - The expectation of further monetary easing by the Fed is anticipated to narrow the earnings gap between the "Seven Giants" and other S&P companies, with a positive outlook for small-cap stocks [2] - Manulife Investment emphasizes the need to monitor the economic fundamentals following the Fed's rate cut, as it may lead to a rebound in global economic conditions [2] - The potential for a steepening of US Treasury yields exists if dovish rate cuts continue, while uncertainties regarding tariffs may impact earnings, particularly in the technology sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View This report is an overseas economic tracking weekly report that analyzes the trends of the US and global financial markets, central bank policies, Trump's policies, and economic fundamentals from September 15 - 19, 2025, and provides a preview of important events in the coming week [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: US stocks reached new highs, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rising 1.22%, 1.05%, and 2.21% respectively. European and Asian stock markets showed mixed trends [1][12]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose slightly, with the dollar index up 0.03%. The euro and yen had different performances against the dollar, and the RMB rose slightly against the dollar [12]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields and term spreads increased. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 1bp and 8bp respectively [13]. - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil rose after fluctuations. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.09% and 1.40% respectively, and WTI crude oil rose 0.19% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Important News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The statement emphasized employment risks, and the dot - plot showed more expected rate cuts in 2025 and subsequent years [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately dovish but cautious. Other Fed officials were neutrally dovish [2][30]. - The market's expectation of a 75bp rate cut in 2025 increased, but the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 was postponed [3]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: High - level talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok and trade cooperation. The TikTok ban was extended to December 16, and a Sino - US presidential call was held [4]. - **Fiscal**: There is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The House passed a temporary appropriation bill, but the Senate rejected one [4]. - **Other Aspects**: The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case, the UK and the US signed a technology agreement, and Trump reformed the H - 1B visa program [6]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking - **Overall Prosperity**: The Nowcast and GDPNow models raised the Q3 US GDP growth forecasts to 2.10% and 3.34% respectively [7]. - **Employment**: Unemployment insurance claims decreased unexpectedly. Initial and continued claims both declined [7]. - **Demand**: Retail sales and airport security checks were stable, but railway transportation decreased significantly. The real estate market recovered [7]. - **Production**: US crude steel production and refinery operations remained stable, above last year's levels [7]. - **Shipping**: International freight rates were mixed. Some Chinese export container rates decreased, while some US - bound routes increased [7]. - **Prices**: US retail gasoline prices rose, and the 1 - year inflation swap decreased slightly [7]. - **Financial Conditions**: The OFR US financial stress index declined [7]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week (September 22 - 26, 2025), focus on the US Q2 real GDP final value, the US August core PCE inflation rate, the S&P PMI of the US and the eurozone, and密集 Fed officials' speeches [7][73].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a "risk management" measure that aims to provide strong support for economic growth, with clearer future rate cut paths anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, leading to fluctuations in global asset prices, with gold and US stocks recovering after initial adjustments [1] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations have shown new progress, signaling positive developments in US-China relations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The market's trading direction is expected to become clearer, with a focus on the narrative surrounding the AI industry overseas [1] - In the domestic market, stable export conditions are anticipated to create a resonance between internal and external demand, supported by the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The pricing of Chinese assets is centered around the theme of "emerging from deflation," with the potential incremental benefits from the "14th Five-Year Plan" also warranting attention [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, which is seen as a significant move impacting global capital flows [1][3] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to lead to increased foreign investment in Chinese, Japanese, and European markets, particularly benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to their low valuations [3][5] - The Fed's decision is framed as a "risk management" approach, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to stabilizing growth and employment, reflecting a complex internal struggle [5][7] Group 2 - Market reactions to the rate cut have been mixed, with U.S. markets showing little movement and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing declines, suggesting that the positive expectations were already priced in [5][9] - There are divergent views on future rate cuts, with some institutions predicting additional cuts in November and December, while others caution against premature optimism due to potential inflation rebounds [9][10] - The investment landscape is expected to see structural differentiation, requiring more refined investment strategies rather than broad-based buying [10][12] Group 3 - Sectors such as technology, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as areas of potential growth, particularly in the context of lower interest rates benefiting high-quality growth stocks [11][12] - Conversely, export-oriented companies may face challenges due to a weaker dollar and stronger renminbi, impacting their profitability [14][16] - The need for risk management tools is emphasized, with suggestions to consider gold ETFs and options to navigate market volatility [18]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, reducing the range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to have widespread implications for the financial markets [2][3] - The term "risk management rate cut" was introduced, indicating that while the U.S. economy is still functioning, there are warning signs that necessitate preemptive measures to avoid larger issues [3][5] - The employment data for August showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the normal range of 150,000 to 200,000, indicating companies are tightening their hiring practices [5][9] Group 2 - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%, marking the highest level in nearly four years, which suggests a tougher job market for Americans [5][21] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has been vocal about the need for more aggressive rate cuts [7][9] - The Fed also indicated potential future rate cuts, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts by 2025, suggesting a prolonged period of loose monetary policy [9][25] Group 3 - The stock market typically reacts positively to preventive rate cuts, as lower borrowing costs can facilitate business expansion and attract investors seeking higher returns [11][13] - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market, with foreign holdings of A-shares reaching 2.57 trillion yuan, indicating renewed international interest in China's economic prospects [14][20] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the rate cut cycle, as existing bonds with higher yields become more valuable compared to new issues [16][21] Group 4 - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a turning point for the global financial landscape, prompting a reassessment of asset values and capital flows [25] - China's economic environment is expected to improve as external pressures from previous aggressive Fed rate hikes diminish, allowing for a more favorable investment climate [18][23] - The long-term outlook for China's economy remains stable due to its large domestic market, complete industrial chain, and advancing technological capabilities, which are attractive to long-term capital [23][25]