1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, basically continued the wording of previous meetings but emphasized implementation and accelerating efforts. It showed a policy approach of speeding up the implementation of existing policies while reserving room for incremental policies to deal with "international economic and trade struggles" [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Overall Tone - The meeting affirmed the 5.4% GDP growth in Q1 and the resilience of the stock market. It adopted an attitude of not rushing to increase policies, focusing on implementing policies from previous meetings. However, it required policies to be "accelerated, intensified, and fully utilized", with accelerated implementation being a practical measure for stable growth [4]. - Although there were not many new incremental policies, the policy - makers were worried about the external situation. They added a paragraph on future policy space, indicating that reserve policies would be introduced according to the actual situation [5]. 3.2 Main Policy Orientations - The overall policy tone and specific measures in the monetary and fiscal fields generally continued from previous meetings, but with an emphasis on accelerating implementation. For example, in the "local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", the requirement of "accelerating issuance and use" was added [7][8]. 3.3 Outlook on Potential Policy Space Monetary Policy - In terms of aggregate tools, the short - term probability of comprehensive liquidity injection is low as the base money gap is not large. However, if external pressure increases or economic data deteriorates, aggregate monetary policies may be implemented. If the Fed cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, it will open up room for domestic easing [10]. - For structural tools, since the meeting directly mentioned creating new structural monetary policy tools, it is likely to be implemented in Q2, targeting weak areas such as foreign trade and domestic demand [10]. Fiscal Policy - In the first half of the year, the "Two Sessions" announced quotas will be mainly used. In the second half, the annual budget deficit may be increased depending on fiscal revenue and actual deficits, possibly at the NPC Standing Committee meetings in even - numbered months. Fiscal investment is expected to tilt towards foreign trade and consumption. Budget - external fiscal tools may be implemented in Q2 [11]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting basically continued the previous tone, focusing on long - term system construction, acquisitions, and urban village renovation. If domestic economic downward pressure increases, real estate policies are likely to be strengthened [12]. 3.4 Key Areas of Future Work - The meeting put forward "Four Stabilities": "stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations", with stabilizing employment and enterprises at the forefront. Many employment - stabilizing measures were proposed, and promoting service consumption was also emphasized as a way to increase employment [14]. - The meeting continued to attach importance to technological innovation, mentioning "cultivating new productive forces", key core technology research, and the "AI +" action. It also proposed to launch a "technology board" in the bond market to support key areas [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dong'e Ejiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 1.719 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 425 million yuan, up 20.25% year-on-year [9] - The company's product lines, particularly the Ejiao series, are experiencing steady growth, with various marketing strategies being employed to enhance sales and reach target demographics [9] - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend distribution, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99.7% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [9] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.864 billion, 2.215 billion, and 2.565 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.921 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.918 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.557 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.565 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 15.83% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.42 yuan in 2024 to 3.98 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 4.04% in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 73.62% and a net profit margin of 24.73% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factors and high base effects. However, new contracts signed increased by 9.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend for future growth [1][4] - The company plans to repurchase A shares worth 500 million to 1 billion and H shares worth 250 million to 500 million, reflecting confidence in stable operations [1] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of at least 5.0% and a new contract growth target of at least 7.1% for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the gross profit margin was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio slightly improved to 6.3% [2] - The net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% due to a reversal of impairment losses amounting to 521 million [2] Cash Flow and Debt - The company experienced a net cash outflow of 48.9 billion in Q1, primarily due to seasonal cash flow mismatches, with a cash collection ratio of 94.9% [3] - As of the end of Q1, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases year-on-year [3] New Contracts - The new contract value in Q1 reached 553 billion, up 9.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from infrastructure construction and overseas projects [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion respectively, with target prices set at 12.11 RMB for A shares and 7.33 HKD for H shares [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.70%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing gains of 2.45% and 3.33% respectively [3][11]. - As of April 25, 2025, the average daily pig iron production reached 2.4435 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 4.23% and a year-on-year increase of 18.13% [3][25]. - The report highlights a decrease in the consumption of five major steel products, with total consumption dropping to 9.263 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 22.39 thousand tons [3][34]. - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 10.834 million tons, down 41.40 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting a 3.68% decline [3][41]. - The report notes an increase in the price index for ordinary steel, which rose to 3,477.1 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19.44 CNY/ton [3][47]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week-on-week [3][25]. - Electric furnace capacity utilization was reported at 56.7%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points week-on-week [3][25]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.664 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.44 thousand tons [3][25]. Demand - The report indicates a decline in the consumption of five major steel products, with a total of 9.263 million tons consumed, down 2.36% week-on-week [3][34]. - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders was 121 thousand tons, which increased by 11.56% week-on-week [3][34]. - The report also mentions a decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, which fell to 149.4 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 15.2 million square meters [3][34]. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 10.834 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week [3][41]. - Factory inventory for the same products was reported at 4.508 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.96% [3][41]. Prices - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel reached 3,477.1 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.90% [3][47]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was reported at 6,641.6 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.04% [3][47]. Profitability - The average profit for blast furnace steel production was reported at 98 CNY/ton, an increase of 25.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][56]. - The average profit for electric furnace steel production was reported at -357.04 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][56]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was reported at 57.58%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points week-on-week [3][56].

4月25日，省委书记赵一德主持召开省委常委会（扩大）会议暨市（区）委书记工作汇报会，学习 中央政治局会议精神，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。他强调，要认真学习贯彻习近平总书记在中 央政治局会议上的重要讲话和历次来陕考察重要讲话重要指示精神，深入落实中央经济工作会议部署， 坚定信心再加力、改革创新激活力，持续巩固经济回升、结构向优、发展向好态势，推动高质量发展现 代化建设不断迈出坚实步伐。 赵一德强调，要统筹抓好稳增长和高质量发展各项工作，突出在服务新型城镇化等国家重大战略中 抢抓发展机遇，在推动标志性改革举措落地见效中增强动力活力，在深化外事外经外贸外资外宣联动中 拓展经济纵深，在促进科技创新和产业创新深度融合中培壮新质动能，科学做好"十五五"规划编制工 作，牢牢把握发展主动权。要树立"一盘棋"思想抓落实，用好晾晒点评、调度推进、督导反馈等有效机 制，注重以问题整改校准工作偏差、破解堵点卡点、提升整体效能，以开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神 学习教育为契机改进作风、激发干劲，把各项工作做得更有成效。市（区）委书记要切实担负起促一方 发展、富一方百姓、保一方平安、正一方风气的重大责任，进一步提高政治站位、砥砺担当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to adopt a more proactive and expansive policy stance, focusing on stabilizing expectations, growth, foreign trade, employment, stock market, and real estate, while also introducing new incremental policies [1][5][9]. Economic Outlook - The economic situation is anticipated to be acknowledged as stable with a good start in Q1, but challenges will be highlighted, particularly the complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand growth [3][5]. - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is reported at 5.4%, but indicators like CPI and PPI suggest weak demand characteristics remain unchanged, necessitating policy adjustments [5][9]. Policy Direction - The policy tone is expected to be more aggressive and expansive, with a focus on "real money" measures to stabilize various economic sectors [5][9]. - There is an emphasis on implementing existing policies while also introducing new measures to address external uncertainties [5][9]. Key Focus Areas - Specific areas of focus include central leverage, stabilizing foreign trade and employment, expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, stabilizing the stock market and real estate, and enhancing industrial reform [9][10]. - Potential measures may include interest rate cuts, increased fiscal stimulus, and adjustments to the use of funds for existing policies [9][12]. Trade and Employment - The government is expected to emphasize support for foreign trade enterprises and employment, with significant backing for transitioning exports to domestic sales [11][15]. - The stock market may see increased support, with actions from central financial institutions to stabilize market confidence [11][15]. Infrastructure and Reform - More infrastructure projects are likely to be launched, focusing on urban renewal and water conservancy [12]. - Long-term reform efforts will continue, with attention to national market unification and state-owned enterprise reforms [12][13]. Recent Developments - Recent government actions include high-level visits to Southeast Asian countries to strengthen cooperation, and responses to increased tariffs from the U.S. [13][14]. - The government is actively supporting the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic markets through various platforms and initiatives [15][16].

文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ， 国盛证券宏观分析师 朱慧 按 惯 例 ， 4 月 底 将 召 开 经 济 工 作 相 关 的 政 治 局 会 议 ， 基 于 一 季 度 经 济 表 现、 对等关税 进展。 本 文 前瞻 认 为， 会议 总基 调应 会更 加积 极、 更 加扩 张、应会有"真金白银"（实际规模与节奏相机抉择），立足当下、着眼长 远 ， 全 力 " 稳 预 期 、 稳 增 长 、 稳 外 贸 、 稳 就 业 、 稳 股 市 、 稳 楼 市 " 等 各 种"稳"，应会加力推动既定的存量政策落地，也应会推出一批增量政策， 尤其是"更大力度的中央加杠杆、更持续的稳股市稳楼市、更精准的扩内 按惯例，4月底将召开经济工作相关的政治局会议，基于一季度经济表现、对等关税进展，近期总理座谈会、国常会、国新办发布会等系列会议，我们有4 点前瞻： 前瞻1 经济形势上，应会肯定一季度经济起步平稳、开局良好、延续回升向好态势，但应也会直面困难，着重强调"今年的形势比较特殊"，包括外部环境更趋严 峻复杂、外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力、内需增长动力不足等。 一方面，应会肯定经济运行中的积极因素持续增多，如延续 ...

可以预见，宏观政策目标整体将向稳增长、逆周期对冲方向倾斜。对债市而言，长期来看，外需下行可 能对经济增长造成压力。在这一逻辑未被证伪的情况下，其对债市的影响偏积极。中短期来看，政策和 资金利率是影响债市运行节奏的关键因素。当前债市处于区间震荡状态，中短期逻辑限制了其上行空 间。目前资金面较为稳定，利率曲线相对平坦，限制了国债收益率的进一步下行。不过，近几个交易日 人民币汇率压力减轻，税期过后，若资金利率边际下行，则国债收益率下行空间就会被打开。此外，促 消费、稳楼市、宽财政政策也将逐步发力。短期内，在政策节奏不确定和资金面稳定的情况下，债市仍 以震荡为主，预计10年期国债收益率波动区间在1.61%~1.7%。中期内，若降准降息落地，则债市运行 中枢将抬升。 为应对金融市场波动加剧的情况，债券基金灵活运用国债期货来管理利率风险。随着债券基金一季报的 陆续披露，在债市高位回调的背景下，一季度混合债券型基金的净值表现相对纯债型基金更为出色。今 年债市面临高估值、内外因素频繁影响的复杂局面，市场波动加大，操作难度提高，这使得资产配置和 工具运用的重要性愈发凸显。 从债券基金一季报已披露的情况来看，纯债型基金和混合型基 ...