投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖叠加夜盘钢材期价走强，周末钢材现货价格有所上涨，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不 大，库存持续累库，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，供应有所收缩，但品种吨钢利润尚可，持续性待跟踪。与 此同时，螺纹钢需求表现依然疲 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 燃料油：涨势明显，短期强势延续 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏弱，外盘现货高低硫 价差小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.779 | 1.72% | | 2.767 | 2.03% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.774 | 2.03% | | 2,763 | 1.73% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3,493 | 0. 32% | | 3,469 | 0.26% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,499 | 0. 26% | | 3.467 | 0. 17% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 特仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2510 | ક | 63 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures fell 3.14% showing an overall downward trend [6]. - For soda ash, the domestic production rate and output increased this week. Although the profit margin slightly rebounded, the maintenance was still lower than expected. The profit rebound is not sustainable, and the overall output is expected to decline. The market supply is currently loose, and the market will likely follow the guidance of the anti - involution meeting, with the natural soda ash method gradually replacing backward production capacity. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the demand for soda ash from the glass industry is at a low level. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to insufficient demand, and the de - stocking process will be repeated. Overall, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, the demand will continue to decline, and the price will be under pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution speculation [6]. - For glass, the cold - repair number of production lines remained unchanged, and the output is at a low level. The profit is starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real - estate construction demand. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the downstream deep - processing orders have slightly increased, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to rise slightly, but the de - stocking trend remains. A restocking market is expected to start next week. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened. If there is news from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, the logic of interest - rate cuts may continue to be traded [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1300 - 1390, with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1420, and operate the FG2601 contract in the range of 1130 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1230 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a first - down - then - up trend. In the first half of the week, it was weak due to poor fundamentals, and the spot price drove the futures price down. In the second half, it was affected by the speculation of production - capacity limitation. Glass futures fell 3.14% with an overall downward trend. After switching the main contract in the first half of the week, the price was overestimated and then dropped significantly due to insufficient real - estate demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is abundant and demand is falling, and the price will be under pressure but may change with anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is not good, and a restocking market is expected next week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1300 - 1390 range and FG2601 in the 1130 - 1200 range, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash decreased, and the basis strengthened, but the rebound was not obvious. The spot price of glass weakened, and the basis strengthened and is expected to continue to do so. The soda ash - glass price spread weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [13][17][21]. - **Specific Data**: As of August 21, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1207.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the soda ash basis was - 98.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 88 yuan/ton. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 150 yuan/ton [15][19][23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Production Capacity and Output**: The domestic soda ash production rate and output increased this week. As of August 21, 2025, the national soda ash production rate was 88.75%, a 1.62% increase week - on - week, and the national weekly soda ash output was 77.14 tons, a 1.32% increase week - on - week. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the output was at a low level [24][28][35]. - **Profit Situation**: The profit of domestic soda ash enterprises rebounded this week due to cost reduction, while the profit of glass enterprises decreased due to the decline in spot prices. The theoretical profit of China's dual - tonnage soda ash by the joint - alkali process was 18 yuan/ton, a 11 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda ash method was - 13 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 192.84 yuan/ton, a 12.53% decrease; using coal - gas as fuel was 101.55 yuan/ton, a 10.26% increase; using petroleum coke as fuel was 35.52 yuan/ton, a 59.5% decrease [30][33]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to increased production, and the inventory of glass enterprises increased due to poor real - estate demand. As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 191.08 tons, a 0.89% increase week - on - week, and the total glass inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase week - on - week [46][50]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand is still low. As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [52][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to be mainly bullish. The AAFC estimates Canada's rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 20.1 million tons, with a doubled carry - over stock of 2.2 million tons. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact exports. There are supply risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia. In the short - term, the domestic vegetable oil supply is ample, but the low mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in Q3 reduce supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US Department of Agriculture's downward adjustment of US soybean harvest area is bullish, but the good soybean condition restricts prices. Domestically, the high mill operation rate and increasing soybean meal inventory suppress prices, but the uncertainty of Q4 purchases and less near - month rapeseed arrivals support the market. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken long - term supply, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations [11][12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil** - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias [8]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with the 01 contract closing at 9,890 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - Outlook: AAFC's new production and inventory estimates, China's anti - dumping measures, international palm oil factors, and domestic supply - demand conditions affect the market. The price has a slight pull - back and is now in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - Strategy: Adopt a bullish mindset and monitor Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations [11]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with the 01 contract closing at 2,543 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week [12]. - Outlook: USDA's report, good US soybean condition, domestic soybean meal inventory, rapeseed supply, and substitution effect of soybean meal all influence the market. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues and is in a bullish and volatile state [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Position and Price** - Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 284,285 lots, down 12,211 lots from last week. The top 20 net position changed from net short to net long (+6,463) [17][23]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with a total position of 421,028 lots, down 27,582 lots from last week. The top 20 net short position decreased (- 8,755) [17][23]. - **Warehouse Receipts** - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts are 3,487 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts are 8,253 lots [29][30]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,010 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is +120 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week, and the basis is +7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spread** - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +179 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +74 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio** - The 01 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.889, and the average spot price ratio is 3.81 [53]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals** - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,432 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 298 yuan/ton, both with relative oscillations this week [62]. - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 545 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 460 yuan/ton [68]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Rapeseed** - **Supply - Inventory and Arrival**: As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Pressing Profit**: As of August 21, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is +883 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Pressing Volume**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume in coastal main mills is 49,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from last week, with an operation rate of 11.99% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Arrival**: In July 2025, China's rapeseed imports are 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [86]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Supply - Inventory and Import**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory is 744,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. In July 2025, rapeseed oil imports are 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% [90]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - Contract Volume**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 101,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.39% [98]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory is 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.39% [102]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, rapeseed meal imports are 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - **Demand - Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed output is 2.9377 million tons [110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of August 22, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.7%, down 3.03% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is still within the range - bound oscillation, but the upward pressure is gradually increasing [1] - In the medium - term, before the Indian Prime Minister's visit to China, investors' risk preference in the urea market remains low, and the market is expected to move within a range. In the long - term, from the perspective of the terminal value of the 01 contract, the fundamental pressure is still high, and it may show a weakening trend as policies become clearer [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - For the urea 01 contract, the closing price was 1,764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,773 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 181,545 lots, a decrease of 275,681 lots; the open interest was 205,717 lots, a decrease of 2,892 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 643.871 million yuan, a decrease of 991.163 million yuan; the basis in Shandong was - 4, up 2; the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 134, up 12; the basis of Dongguang - disk was - 4, up 12; the spread of UR09 - UR01 was - 27 for Henan Xinlianxin, down 2 [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea producers remained stable, such as Yankuang Xinjiang at 1,460 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,750 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Fengxi at 1,630 yuan/ton. The price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 20 yuan to 1,810 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan to 1,760 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained at 1,630 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Indicators - The urea production start - up rate was 82.59%, down 0.65 percentage points; the daily output was 191,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, local urea enterprises could not maintain the balance between production and sales. Although some enterprises' inventories decreased due to export orders and maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory was on the rise. Some provinces saw inventory increases while others saw decreases [2] - As export - related information has been successively confirmed, the market's export expectations for urea are gradually materializing. In the context of the futures premium over the spot, the focus is on whether the overall spot trading volume can support the futures premium. [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4958 - 5050. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [9][13] - The bullish factors are the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [7] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8] - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,661.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 0.70%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8] - **Other Aspects**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. The basis on August 21 was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%, ethylene method factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%, and social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, month - to - month spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, etc., of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide method and ethylene method) in various regions [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report shows the base price trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the base price, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18] - **Price and Volume Trend**: It shows the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, MA120), as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: It presents the spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc., of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [26][28][30][32][35] - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC supply [37][39][41] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the trading volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates (such as profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the profit, cost, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, and local government new special bonds [43][45][47][49][52][54] - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57] - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [58][59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and production [61][62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the steel sector, the recovery of future demand may fall short of expectations due to the real - estate market still being in the process of bottom - building, and futures prices are under downward pressure. The short - term prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may stabilize, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. For iron ore, although there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron production after the military parade, the room for further increase is limited, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand has increased from a decline, factory inventory has increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory has increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total production and inventory of the five major steel varieties have increased, and apparent demand has also risen. With the end of the summer heat, apparent demand should gradually recover, and total inventory is expected to gradually decline [2] - **Technical analysis**: After a sharp decline, rebar and hot - rolled coils have stabilized and rebounded, with a decrease in open interest. Short - term prices may stabilize, and the medium - term will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for a rebound to short [2] - **Data summary**: Various data such as futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are presented in detail, including changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased. The molten iron production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly. After the military parade, there is room for an increase in molten iron production, but the room for further increase is limited. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has stabilized near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band. Short - term prices may rebound to the upper track, but the overall Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Close short positions in the short - term and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Data summary**: Comprehensive data on iron ore, including spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipment, freight, arrivals, inventory, etc., are provided, along with changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4] Industry News - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. Since 2022, 27 listed real - estate enterprises have been delisted passively, and several others have delisted through privatization [6] - Chengdu has introduced a new housing provident fund policy, with preferential measures for purchasing affordable housing [6] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of coke [6] - The online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on August 21 ended in failure [6] - As of the week of August 21, rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased from a decline [6] - As of August 21, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the float - glass industry have remained stable, and the daily output has remained at the highest level of the year [7]