研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 海外贸易政策方面， 虽然美国针对中国加征关税持续升级，但全球整体贸易 摩擦风险有所缓解，从 90 天关税暂停，到公布上千种产品关税豁免清单市场情绪 逐步回归稳定，短期趋势或逐步转为震荡，谨慎型投资者可择机止盈。中期来看， 后续国内宏观政策仍有发力空间，不论是降准降息，还是刺激内需等等的相关政 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 1.1 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods exceeds normal trade policy and constitutes a unilateral economic blockade, reflecting anxiety over maintaining global economic hegemony [1] - China's manufacturing exports surpassed $2 trillion in 2023, driven by a complete industrial system, efficient production capacity, and a continuously optimized business environment [3] - The U.S. misinterprets trade deficits by blaming China, while the real structural issues stem from U.S. industrial hollowing and excessive financialization [3] Group 2 - China's strategy to address trade friction demonstrates great power wisdom, with a 45% increase in semiconductor investment in 2023 and a 62% share of global patent applications in the new energy sector [5] - The growth of re-export trade reflects the adaptability of Chinese enterprises, with direct investment in Vietnam increasing by 180% over three years and the establishment of an auto parts cluster in Mexico creating 120,000 jobs [5] - The essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations should be cooperation rather than confrontation, with China remaining open to dialogue while rejecting any unequal terms that harm core interests [5] Group 3 - The trade confrontation is reshaping the global economic landscape, with U.S. companies losing access to the largest growth market, as evidenced by General Motors' 42% sales share in China in 2023 and Tesla's Shanghai factory contributing 52% of global capacity [7] - China's digital economy has surpassed 50 trillion yuan, and foreign investment in green and low-carbon industries has increased by 38%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [7] - The historical trend shows that actions against economic globalization will not gain support, as China deepens regional cooperation through RCEP and international platforms like the China International Import Expo [7]

4月14日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至7546.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约报 7520.00元，涨幅1.69%。 苯乙烯期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 五矿期货 苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待 瑞达期货（002961） 苯乙烯后市价格存在回调的可能 五矿期货：苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待 伴随着特朗普宣布对大部分经济体（中国除外）暂停实施对等关税政策（仅生效13个小时），期限为90 天以供谈判，宏观利空短期告一段落，后续将持续跟踪贸易谈判进展。就当前而言，纯苯裂差BZN历史 同期低位的估值给了盘面拉涨的空间，最新苯乙烯周产量出现大幅下滑，厂库累库港口去库，供给端4 月20日涉及21万吨产能检修，前期检修装置陆续在5月底6月初重启，故我们认为苯乙烯短期触底反弹看 待。中长期来讲，后市在贸易摩擦需求萎靡的背景下，5月底6月初伴随着苯乙烯装置复产，我们仍旧维 持苯乙烯单边逢高抛空的观点。操作建议：前空止盈离场。 瑞达期货：苯乙烯后市价格存在回调的可能 供应端，上周万华65万吨、浙石化60万吨装置停车检修，苯乙烯产量环比-6.64%至31.34万吨，产能利 用率环比- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a stable inflation trend in non-energy sectors, indicating an improvement in domestic demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [2][6] - The company, Pengding Holdings, has successfully implemented a comprehensive AI strategy across its operations, including cloud, management, and end-user applications, while also advancing its electric vehicle business [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3238.23, up by 0.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 9834.44, up by 0.82% [3] - The electronic sector showed a strong performance with a 3.77% increase, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector declined by 3.18% [4] Company Financials - For the year 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.59%, and a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.14% increase [8] - In Q4 2024, the company expects to report a revenue of 11.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.37% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.48% [8] AI and Technology Development - The company has made significant strides in AI applications, with revenue from AI-related products exceeding 45% in the communications sector, and a notable growth in sales from AI server products [9] - The automotive PCB products have also seen accelerated development, with a 90.34% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for automotive and server-related PCB products [9]

每经记者 朱成祥 每经编辑 马子卿 4月11日晚间，卓胜微（SZ300782，股价85.42元，市值456.6亿元）披露公告称，公司于近日收到韩国 首尔中央地方法院送达的《民事起诉状》等诉讼相关材料，日本村田就相关专利起诉卓胜微。相关案件 律师费等合理开支暂计人民币170.4万元及诉讼费用。 据了解，村田为全球SAW（声表面波滤波器）龙头企业。滤波器作为射频前端一个至关重要的器件， 具有广阔的市场前景。卓胜微为国内射频前端龙头企业，其搭建的6英寸滤波器产线，产品品类已实现 全面布局，自有产线已具备良好的规模量产能力，滤波器等产品已自主生产并持续放量。 另据卓胜微4月9日披露的投资者关系活动记录表，公司目前6英寸滤波器产线的产品品类已实现全面布 局，具备双工器/四工器、单芯片多频段滤波器等分立器件的规模量产能力，现已实现第一期1万片/月 的产能目标，第二期产能规划增加至1.6万片/月。集成自产滤波器模组等产品成功导入多家品牌客户并 持续放量。据卓胜微提供的资料，当前"专利围剿"与贸易摩擦加剧，卓胜微通过"设计+制造"全链条布 局强化核心竞争力。 此外，在今年1月23日，国家知识产权局曾就卓胜微对日本村田的"弹性 ...

以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与你相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 当地时间 4月2日下午，特朗普在白宫签署关于关税的行政令，宣布对所 有贸 易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，同时对数十个其他国家和地区在10%的 基础上加征更高关税 ，如对中国加征 34%、对越南加征46%等 ，在中国迅速 实施反制措施后，特朗普政府宣布对 中国加征 50%额外关税 ，并于 4月 9 日 将关税提升至 1 25% 。 此次加征关税援引《国际经济紧急权力法》，绕过国会，加征关税力度远超出此前市场预期。 4月3日至4日，主要市场股指普跌，跌幅最大的 是美国市场，纳斯达克指数下跌 -11.4% （进入技术性熊市） ，标普500指数 下跌-10.5%， 道琼斯工业指数下跌 -9.3%。 A股也在节后第一个交易日4月7日遭遇大跌，上证指数下跌-7 .34% ，创 业板指收跌 - 12.5% ，全球股市遭遇黑色星期一。 4月9日，在特朗普宣布对部分贸易伙伴暂停征税9 0 天后，美国三大 股指大幅收涨。 历史的车轮滚滚向前，却留下印迹。 回看 2 018-2019年 ，当时特朗普于第一任期时期也曾对我国相 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2025 inflation data, the year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved compared to the previous month. Energy price inflation in March was affected by trade friction uncertainties and is expected to face pressure in April [3][6]. - Upstream prices showed a stabilizing trend, reflecting improved domestic demand. Stable domestic demand gives China more leverage in external negotiations [3][12]. - Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are still somewhat restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may mainly depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity [3][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On April 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released March 2025 inflation data. In March, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices down 1.4% and non - food prices up 0.2%. The CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [5]. Comment - Core and food CPI: The year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved in March. The core CPI was flat month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The rent - related CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.1%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in March was about 291,000 square meters, higher than that in March 2024 [6]. - Food CPI: After the Spring Festival, the food CPI decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline converged. In March, the food CPI decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline also narrowed to 1.4% [9]. - Energy price inflation: Affected by trade friction uncertainties, international oil prices in March decreased compared to February, driving down domestic oil prices. In April, energy inflation is expected to continue facing pressure due to increased trade friction risks and OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in May [12]. - Upstream prices: The price indices of edible agricultural products and production materials showed signs of stabilization at the end of March, reflecting improved domestic demand. China's counter - tariffs on the US may affect the prices of imported products such as agricultural products, but the sources of agricultural product imports have become more diversified [12]. - Monetary policy: Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity. If the savings propensity can drive down the bank's liability cost, the logic of policy rate cuts is more reasonable [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for various countries including Vietnam, Japan, and Canada [2][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes**: The Trump administration's tariff policies differ fundamentally from previous U.S. administrations, focusing on altering the distribution system rather than enhancing efficiency through globalization [2][11]. - **Global Trade Responses**: Countries are responding to the tariff war with three strategies: hardline (e.g., China raising tariffs to 84%), moderate (e.g., EU's restrained actions), and compromise (e.g., Vietnam and Japan seeking negotiations) [2][5]. - **Economic Risks in the U.S.**: The U.S. economy faces risks from declining discretionary consumer demand and rising inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a neutral stance, contributing to market volatility and increasing recession or stagflation uncertainties [2][8]. - **Impact on China’s Economy**: An increase of 1% in U.S. tariffs could lead to a 1.7% decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., potentially resulting in a GDP drop of 1-1.5% if tariffs reach 84% [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Global financial markets are experiencing significant volatility, with U.S. stocks and commodities declining sharply, while precious metals show strength but with notable fluctuations [2][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Strategies**: A "barbell" strategy is recommended for RMB asset allocation, focusing on dividends and technology while also considering high-dividend stability and new energy development [2][29]. - **Long-term Economic Changes**: The current macroeconomic paradigm shift is affecting asset pricing, with a need for new pricing anchors like U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index [2][18]. - **Potential for Commodity Markets**: The outlook for the commodity market, particularly for non-ferrous metals, is positive, while agricultural products are expected to remain weak in the U.S. but strong domestically [2][20]. - **Japan's Economic Position**: Japan is highlighted as a key non-U.S. market due to its potential for growth and the Bank of Japan's discussions on interest rate hikes, which could support domestic demand [2][26]. - **Future Risks and Market Reversal Conditions**: Market reversals may occur due to significant monetary easing or corrections in pessimistic expectations, with current conditions suggesting limited downside for commodities due to already low prices [2][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. tariff policies, global economic risks, and strategic investment opportunities.

Market Overview - The report indicates a positive sentiment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index rising by 1.16%, 1.31%, and 0.95% respectively on April 10 [2] - The technology sector saw a rotation from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, with the STAR 50, STAR Composite Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.09%, 2.06%, and 2.27% respectively [2] - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with short-term yields declining due to easing liquidity, while long-term yields rose amid expectations [2][4] Commodity Performance - Precious metals prices rebounded, with both London and New York gold surpassing $3100 per ounce, and domestic gold and silver rising by 3.21% and 3.44% respectively [3] - Industrial metals and energy prices also saw recovery, with New York copper increasing by over 4% and domestic copper rising by 3.86% [3] - In the domestic market, construction-related commodities such as rebar and iron ore saw increases of 2.01% and 3.06% respectively, while coking coal and glass experienced slight declines [3] Currency and Liquidity - The report notes a weakening of the US dollar, which alleviated depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, with both onshore and offshore yuan rates approaching 7.32 [3] - The liquidity environment improved, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal operation of 157.5 billion yuan, yet funding rates remained stable [4] - Overnight funding costs fell to around 1.65%, indicating a comfortable liquidity position [4] Sector Performance - The consumer sector continued to lead gains, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as retail, automotive, and light manufacturing, with respective increases of 4.83%, 3.21%, and 2.93% [7] - The technology sector also performed well, with media, electronics, and communications indices rising by 3.20%, 2.58%, and 2.47% respectively [7] - The report highlights a strong rebound in the A-share market, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and a potential easing of trade tensions [6][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.06% and 2.66% respectively, with consumer, materials, and defense sectors showing strong performance [8] - Despite a net outflow of 4.03 billion HKD from southbound funds, the market sentiment remained positive, reflecting a tendency for profit-taking after recent gains [8] - The report notes that the AH share premium index remains around 140, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are still in a recovery phase [8]

Group 1: Supply Chain Security as a Focus of Great Power Competition - The report highlights that supply chain security has become a focal point in the geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, with increased measures to weaken China's advantages in shipping and energy resources [4][7][13]. Group 2: Energy Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report details the vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain, emphasizing the high import dependency rates for various energy sources, such as crude oil (72%), liquefied natural gas (79%), and nickel (100%) [4][14][27]. - It suggests that the oil and gas sectors, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, are critical areas for short-term investment due to their exposure to supply chain risks [4][14][27]. Group 3: Metal Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report outlines the high import dependency for key metals, including iron ore (54%), copper (92.9%), and manganese (98%), indicating a significant reliance on foreign sources [4][43][52]. - It identifies potential investment opportunities in the metal sector, particularly in companies involved in the extraction and processing of these minerals, given the ongoing demand and supply chain challenges [4][43][52].