雅江题材掀起市场高潮，有色稀土、煤炭占据反内卷"高地"。 今日午后，A股煤炭股受传闻刺激突然爆发。 截至收盘，山西焦煤、昊华能源、潞安环能、山煤国际、淮北矿业、晋控煤业等多股涨停。 受此提振，国内期货主力合约多数上涨，玻璃、多晶硅、纯碱、焦炭、焦煤、工业硅涨停。 | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 张幅� | 持合 | 日壇仓 | 成交额 | 成交量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 焦炭主连 | 1697.5 | +125.5 | +7.98% | 40527 | -3388 | 96.92 7 | 58919 | | 2 焦煤主连 | 1048.5 | +77.5 | +7.98% | 44.217 | -62782 | 100417 | 163.6万 | | 3 PVC主连 | 5260 | +187 | +3.69% | 86.537 | -49630 | 480.017 | 185.1万 | | 4 铁矿石主连 | 823.0 | +20.0 | +2.49% | 61.99万 | -43544 | 484.9 7 | 59 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-23 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3307 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 83 元/吨（2.574%）。当日注册仓单 86534 吨, 环比持平。主力合约持仓量为 202.4507 万手，环比减少 71405 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3330 元/吨, 环比增加 50/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3370 元/吨, 环比增加 50 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3477 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 83 元/吨（2.445%）。 当日注册仓单 59549 吨, 环比减少 905 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 158.2445 万手，环比减少 1 ...

Group 1: Macro Environment - The recent passing of the US stablecoin bill in the House of Representatives is expected to strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and potentially alleviate the US debt crisis [2] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are generating positive sentiment, which is spreading to other commodity futures, leading to significant increases in the black and building materials sectors [2] - The global oil market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with OPEC+ increasing production significantly [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, which is significantly higher than previous increases, potentially restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day cut announced earlier this year [2] - The Northern Hemisphere is in the summer oil consumption peak, with US commercial crude oil inventories dropping to 422 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 3.859 million barrels [3] - The US refinery utilization rate remains high at 93.9%, indicating strong demand for crude oil [3] Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Domestic asphalt production is showing slight growth, with a total weekly output of 572,000 tons, a minor increase of 6,000 tons [5] - Despite an increase in asphalt supply, demand remains strong, with a significant weekly increase in shipments to 414,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [5] - Asphalt social inventory has decreased significantly, with a weekly drop of 4.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [5][6] Group 4: Overall Outlook - The overall market for asphalt is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a clear trend of inventory reduction [6] - The combination of a positive macro environment, improved oil supply-demand structure, and stronger asphalt demand than supply suggests that the asphalt futures market will maintain a bullish trend [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" policies are accelerating at the macro level, and inflation expectations are starting to bottom out. At the industry level, since June, "anti-involution" has been advanced mainly through self-discipline, and some industries have formed certain price increase expectations [4][7]. - By reviewing historical similar policy environments, the current "anti-involution" situation has similarities with the policy backgrounds in 2016 and 2021. Although this round may be advanced more from the industry self-discipline level, it is expected that the price increase expectations of key industries will be realized, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought about by the improvement of profit expectations in related industries [4][23]. - Last week, the convertible bond market rose, and the valuation reached a high level. Five convertible bonds announced redemptions, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. "Anti-involution" Historical Review and Current Concerns - **Policy Progress**: Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 proposed to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition, to the official proposal by the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, to govern the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, the "anti-involution" policy has continued to exert force [4][7]. - **Industry Trends**: Since June, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and most upstream cyclical industries have launched initiatives or collective production reduction plans by leading enterprises, and the market associates this round of "anti-involution" with the price increase logic under the production capacity optimization in 2016 and 2021 [4][7]. - **Historical Comparison**: In 2016, the supply - side reform focused on the coal and steel industries. In 2021, due to the demand for meeting the dual - control targets of energy consumption and the rise in coal prices, power and production restrictions were implemented in many places, and the PPI increased significantly. The current situation has similarities with these two historical periods, and the "anti-involution" this time may be more concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a high proportion of private enterprises [4][23]. 2. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuation Reached a High Level - **Weekly Market Conditions**: Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed suit. There are 477 issued but unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 648.241 billion yuan. Some bonds have not yet been listed for trading, and there are currently no bonds to be issued [24]. - **Valuation Performance**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.68% compared with the previous Friday. The premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds increased. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate increased by 1.32 pct compared with the previous Friday [32]. 3. Terms and Supply: Five Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Total Scale of Bonds to be Issued is about 7 Billion Yuan - **Terms**: As of July 18, 5 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Lingkang Convertible Bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Some bonds announced non - early redemptions, and some announced that they were expected to meet the redemption conditions. 4 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 12 were expected to trigger downward revisions [1][50]. - **Primary Market**: Last week, Xizhen and Yongxi Convertible Bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.685 billion yuan. This week, Libo Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 750 million yuan. There were no new convertible bond issuances. Last week, Tonglian Precision added a board of directors' plan, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][53].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Domestic industrial product prices are showing strong performance, with fluctuations in supply and demand impacting the market [4][5] - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with recent weeks showing a decline in operational rates for asphalt and cement, although there are signs of stabilization [4] - The demand side shows weakness in construction, while automotive and home appliance demand is fluctuating [4][6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Central Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in major ETFs, exceeding 190 billion yuan, indicating strong market resilience and risk appetite [10][11] - The market is experiencing a structural shift with long-term funds playing a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations and supporting liquidity [11][12] - The focus on core assets remains essential as the market experiences rapid sector rotation, with policy-driven support expected to continue [13] Group 3: Institutional Research Trends - There has been a decline in overall institutional research activity, but interest in sectors such as computing, media, and coal has increased [15][17] - Specific companies like Ice Wheel Environment and Dongfang Tantalum are gaining attention due to their market positioning and growth potential [21] Group 4: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is facing increased competition, necessitating a "de-involution" approach to improve profitability and market conditions [48][49] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize, but export growth may be limited due to international trade challenges [49][50] Group 5: AI and Entertainment Sector - The gaming, music, and entertainment sectors are experiencing high growth, with companies like Heartbeat and Dreamland seeing significant revenue increases [37][38] - The rise of AI applications in music and entertainment is expected to enhance user engagement and market opportunities [40] Group 6: Robotics Industry Developments - Yushutech is leading in the robotics sector, particularly in dog robots and humanoid robots, with a valuation of 12 billion yuan following recent funding rounds [42][44] - The company is focusing on self-developed core hardware and advanced control systems to enhance product performance and market competitiveness [43][44] Group 7: Pharmaceutical Sector Growth - The siRNA drug market is rapidly developing, with significant sales growth reported by companies like Novartis, indicating strong potential for domestic pharmaceutical firms [53][54] - The expansion of siRNA applications into chronic disease areas presents a promising market opportunity for future growth [54]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current economic transition period is characterized by a slowdown in industrial enterprise profit growth, similar to the supply-side reform in 2016, but this "anti-involution" primarily targets excess production in areas with good demand rather than directly stimulating demand to avoid intensifying competition [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - External demand industries are experiencing historically low asset turnover rates, indicating significant supply issues and competitive pressure despite better performance compared to internal demand industries [1][6]. - Unlike 2015, where poor profitability led to reduced manufacturing investment, current conditions show that despite low profits, manufacturing investment has surged as companies proactively increase supply to address competition [1][7]. - Low capacity utilization is concentrated in downstream sectors, contrasting with the upstream raw materials overcapacity seen in 2016, with private enterprises facing greater challenges compared to state-owned enterprises [1][9]. - High energy-consuming industries are seeing a slowdown in electricity consumption growth despite strong industrial production, attributed to energy-saving equipment updates, with future impacts of eliminating outdated capacity expected to diminish [1][12][13]. - Upstream price increases are squeezing downstream profitability, with rising costs in the mid and downstream sectors outpacing raw material price increases, indicating excessive investment leading to additional rigid costs [1][15]. Misconceptions about Anti-Involution - There are three main misconceptions about anti-involution: it is not synonymous with overcapacity, it does not imply a comprehensive contraction of upstream supply, and it involves more hidden policy tools than just self-discipline and market-based measures [3]. Comparison with 2016 Supply-Side Reform - While both anti-involution and the 2016 supply-side reform occur during economic transitions with weakened industrial profits, they differ significantly in their demand issues: the former involves proactive supply increases in good demand areas, while the latter dealt with passive overcapacity due to declining investment demand [4]. Policy Measures and Their Impacts - The implementation of a new equipment replacement policy is expected to boost the Producer Price Index (PPI) by approximately 0.5 percentage points and enhance industrial enterprise profits by about 1 percentage point [2][17]. - The management of accounts receivable is crucial for addressing overdue payments to small enterprises, with a recent government directive aiming to clear over 7 trillion yuan in overdue payments [18][19]. Future Adjustments in Supply - The coal and pig farming industries may face supply adjustments due to high production levels and declining electricity demand, leading to potential supply control policies [14]. Focus Areas for Anti-Involution Policies - Current anti-involution policies are primarily focused on downstream sectors rather than upstream, with expectations that the supply contraction in the upstream sector will not be significant in the near term [20].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry, particularly discussing the implementation of "anti-involution" measures and supply-side reforms in response to declining coal prices and production challenges [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Demand Improvement Expectations**: The government's "stability first" strategy aims to ensure energy supply security amidst declining coal prices, which have dropped by 20% for coking coal and reached a five-year low for thermal coal [9][10]. - **Production Control Measures**: The National Energy Administration (NEA) has implemented strict production capacity checks, with penalties for exceeding production limits set at 110% of approved capacity [4][11]. - **Regional Production Changes**: - Shaanxi's coal production is projected to decrease to 1.268 billion tons in 2024, down by approximately 80 million tons due to safety concerns and the exit of small mines [12]. - Shanxi plans to increase production to over 1.3 billion tons by 2025 through advanced capacity and technological upgrades [13]. - Inner Mongolia is expected to maintain the highest production at 1.297 billion tons in 2024, focusing on large-scale production and technological improvements [15]. - **Superproduction Issues**: Superproduction is prevalent among private enterprises, with regulatory challenges in monitoring compliance. The NEA emphasizes the need for on-site inspections and technical monitoring to address these issues [3][30]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Price Declines**: The decline in coal prices has led to significant discussions within the government regarding production limits to stabilize the market. The NEA's measures aim to prevent companies from increasing production to offset losses, which could lead to market oversupply [11][19]. - **Long-term Agreements**: Industry associations are advocating for long-term contracts to stabilize coal prices and prevent market volatility, with state-owned enterprises reportedly providing significant financial benefits through these agreements [21]. - **Financial Support for High-Quality Development**: The government is offering financial incentives, such as tax reductions, to support the development of safe, efficient, and green coal mining operations, particularly in western regions [22]. Conclusion - The coal industry is facing significant challenges due to price declines and regulatory pressures. The NEA's strict enforcement of production limits and the push for supply-side reforms are critical to maintaining market stability. The focus on technological upgrades and long-term contracts may provide pathways for recovery and growth in the sector [41].

Summary of Meijin Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meijin Energy - **Industry**: Coal and Coke Production Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Meijin Energy's gross profit from coal and coke businesses remained stable compared to Q1, with coke business losses slightly narrowing. Coal prices decreased year-on-year but remained stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company expects an overall loss for the year, primarily due to high depreciation costs estimated at approximately 2 billion yuan [2][10] - The anticipated loss for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 500 million to 700 million yuan, attributed to oversupply in the coal and coke markets and weak demand from the real estate and downstream steel sectors [3][10] Production and Capacity - The Guizhou coking plant has completed the first phase with a capacity of 1.8 million tons, and the second phase plans to add another 2 million tons, with preliminary investments nearly complete [2][6] - Coal production is operating at near full capacity, with only minor adjustments due to coal quality issues at the well-return mine [7] - The company does not plan to reduce production despite the current supply-side reforms, as they believe the impact on leading enterprises is minimal [8] Market Conditions - The company is closely monitoring the recovery of the downstream steel industry, which is expected to drive growth in the entire supply chain [8] - The recent rise in raw steel prices has had a limited impact on operations due to existing inventory and coal storage [16] Debt and Cash Flow - The rating agency Zhongzheng Pengyuan downgraded Meijin's convertible bonds to A+ due to severe losses and high shareholder pledge rates, indicating tight cash flow [9] - The company faces challenges in resolving shareholder pledge issues due to market value constraints [14] Future Outlook - Short-term recovery from losses in the coking sector is deemed difficult, with high depreciation costs further complicating profitability [10] - Asset impairment for 2025 is expected to be over 10 million yuan, a decrease from the previous year's impairment of 100 to 200 million yuan [10] - The company does not currently meet conditions for adjusting the conversion price of its bonds, which are expected to mature in 2028 [10][11] Strategic Projects - The asset injection project for Jiyuan Coal Mine is currently paused, pending successful joint trial production, expected to resume in Q3 2026 [4][12] - The company is considering suitable projects for investment but is slowing down its overall investment pace [4][12] Supply Chain Dynamics - The self-supply ratio of coking coal is approximately 30%, with the remaining 70% sourced externally, primarily through spot purchases [17] - Long-term pricing agreements for coking coal are not common due to the weak bargaining position of coking plants [18][19] Conclusion - Meijin Energy is navigating a challenging market environment with significant financial pressures and operational constraints. The focus remains on maintaining production levels while monitoring market conditions and potential recovery in the steel sector. The company is also addressing internal financial issues, including shareholder pledges and cash flow management, as it plans for future growth and investment opportunities.

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry in China, particularly the impact of supply-side reforms initiated in 2016, which have significantly improved the profitability of the coal sector by increasing coal prices from hundreds of yuan to over 600 yuan [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Reforms**: - The reforms included production limits, elimination of outdated capacity, and supportive policies, leading to a substantial increase in coal prices and industry profitability [1][3][5]. - Production days for coal mines were reduced from 331 to 276, effectively lowering output [3]. 2. **Impact of Demand Pressure**: - Demand pressure, particularly from trade wars, has been a significant factor affecting the coal industry, causing price declines in 2018-2019 despite ongoing reforms [1][5][6]. - The current economic environment continues to exert demand pressure, but anti-involution measures are expected to stabilize coal prices [1][7]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The National Energy Administration's verification of overproduction aims to stabilize coal prices, with approximately 100 million tons of overproducing mines identified, mainly in Shaanxi and Xinjiang [4][10]. - The coal sector is currently experiencing good liquidity, and experts predict stability in the market [10]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: - Potential investment candidates in the coal sector should have low capacity utilization, high inventory, low gross margins, low valuations, and low debt ratios. Companies like Pingmei Shenma Energy, Jinkong Coal, 3D International, and Lu'an Environmental Energy are highlighted as having investment value [1][8]. 5. **Future Price Trends**: - The coal sector has recently rebounded, with futures prices increasing by 20%-30%. However, the equity market has not fully reflected this change, indicating a potential for further recovery [2][9]. - The future trajectory of the coal sector will depend on the execution of supply-side policies and the realization of demand-side policies [9]. Other Important Insights - The coal industry is currently undervalued compared to 32 other industries, suggesting potential for significant rebounds, especially in the coking coal sector [7]. - The profitability of coking coal is currently near levels seen before the supply-side reforms, indicating a potential for stronger rebounds in the future [7]. - The discussion included the importance of monitoring the performance of individual coal stocks, particularly those in the private sector, which may be more affected by production regulations than state-owned enterprises [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the current challenges and potential policy changes impacting the sector [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Strengthening**: In Q3, policy measures have intensified, with the State Council emphasizing the need to combat low-price competition and accelerate capacity exit [1][3]. - **Severe Losses**: The PV industry is experiencing significant losses, with leading companies facing cash flow pressures, which is more severe than in any historical period [3][5]. - **Supply-Side Reform**: If the current policy measures do not meet expectations by the end of September, stronger supply-side reforms may be initiated in Q4 [1][4]. - **Historical Context**: Past fluctuations in the PV industry were primarily driven by demand-side changes, such as policy shifts in Europe in 2012 and China in 2018. Current issues are predominantly supply-side, with overcapacity being a critical concern [6][7]. - **Market Dynamics**: The industry is currently facing overcapacity across all segments, with supply exceeding demand by more than double. Short-term demand stimulation is unlikely to resolve this imbalance [7][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Signals**: Key indicators of market clearing include cash flow issues among companies, particularly those ranked lower in the industry, which may lead to acquisitions or bankruptcies [9][10]. - **Phased Market Clearing**: The market clearing process will occur in stages, starting with the exit of lower-tier companies, followed by the gradual shutdown of capacities in the top tier through technological iterations [10]. - **Focus Areas for Improvement**: To improve the supply-demand balance, attention should be given to policy solutions and market clearing mechanisms. Achieving certain price levels, such as silicon material prices above 60,000 yuan and module prices around 0.85 yuan per watt, is crucial for restoring profitability [8][11]. Recommended Companies - **Silicon Material Leaders**: Recommended companies include Tongwei, Daqo, and Xiexin in the silicon material segment [12]. - **Battery Segment**: Companies such as Aiko, Nanjing Agricultural Machinery, and the modified polymer materials from Tongjiang are highlighted for their potential [12]. - **Energy Storage**: Recommended firms in the energy storage sector include Sunshine Haibo, Deye, and Airo, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [12].