Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a complex supply - demand and price situation. The supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January suggest a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 100350, with a basis of - 250, indicating a discount to futures, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 6th, copper inventory increased by 2700 tons to 183275 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving down, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight ore supply, along with geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in different years from 2018 to 2024 [19][21].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货收涨 2.03%，报 4988.6 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货收涨 1.06%，报 77.525 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约收涨 2.82%，报 1115 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 3.51%，报 19840 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 2 月 6 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1076.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.36 吨，当前持仓量为 16191.09 吨。 | | 有色与贵 | 贵金属 | 黄 金 震 荡 | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.9%，维持利 率不变的概率为 80.1%。 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose nearly 1.5% to 101,490 yuan, while London copper rebounded to the upper limit of $13,000 [4][20] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for February reached a six-month high, indicating strong economic fundamentals, while dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest there may be one or two more rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar that supports copper price rebound [5][20] - Global copper inventories increased by about 20,000 tons to 1.05 million tons, marking a six-year high, with domestic copper inventories at 338,000 tons, LME at approximately 180,500 tons, and COMEX at 532,000 tons [6][20] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday and high prices pressuring end demand, with the main trading range for copper futures set at 100,500 to 102,500 yuan per ton [6][20] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Spot transactions for pure nickel are sluggish, with a decline in intermediate product ratios weakening the cost support for nickel sulfate, while downstream transactions are also quiet ahead of the Spring Festival [21] - Demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, and concerns over Indonesia's RKAB policy have led to increased purchasing sentiment for Philippine nickel ore, driving up prices [21] - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak sentiment due to bearish futures market conditions, resulting in relatively low spot transactions and an increase in social inventories [21][22] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Last week, spot aluminum prices remained stable, while futures prices fluctuated significantly due to news, including a temporary halt in production at a northern alumina plant, which is expected to have a limited impact on supply [23] - The first quarter's long-term ore contract prices are expected to decline further, and domestic alumina production costs may decrease in February [23] - The aluminum market is facing pressure from increased inventories, with both electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod stocks showing significant growth, indicating ongoing supply pressure [24] Group 4: Zinc and Lead Market - The macro environment shows mixed signals with U.S. consumer confidence reaching a six-month high and preliminary progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, while the market awaits upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [25][26] - Zinc smelting plants are expected to reduce production ahead of the holiday, leading to a potential decrease in operating rates, while zinc ingot inventories continue to rise [26] - Lead supply remains tight, with primary lead concentrate supply under pressure, and downstream purchasing activity has slowed as inventories continue to accumulate [26] Group 5: Precious Metals - Precious metals are showing signs of stabilization and rebound, primarily driven by dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials and improved market sentiment [28] - The U.S. consumer confidence index increase supports silver, platinum, and palladium prices, contributing to their rebound [28] - Long-term bullish factors for gold include "de-dollarization" and expectations of dollar depreciation, although short-term market sentiment remains volatile [28]

Group 1: Gold Market - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates one to two times to address the slowing labor market, despite balanced risks of price stability and full employment [2] - According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, there is an 80.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.9%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 31.1%, with a 65.2% chance of maintaining rates. By June, the probability of a cumulative cut reaches 51.1% [2] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research indicates that the slowing labor market increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - Technically, gold has maintained a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop last week, with an increased probability of further upward movement. The price is expected to test resistance at $5,080 and potentially rise above $5,100 this week [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations has alleviated investor concerns regarding geopolitical risks, which may weaken the support for oil prices [4] - Recent U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected ADP figures and an increase in initial jobless claims, indicates a continuing slowdown in the labor market, raising concerns about global oil demand growth [4] - Technically, oil prices have been in a wide range of fluctuations since reaching $66.45 at the end of last month, currently entering the latter half of an adjustment phase. Key support is noted at $61.50 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a fluctuating trend after a significant drop at the end of last month, with strong support observed around the $5.55 level despite multiple breaches of the $5.64 support [7] - The upper resistance level for copper is noted at $6.05 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is in a bullish trend, accelerating upward and reaching a high of 58,569, indicating strong bullish momentum [8] - Key support for the index is observed at the 56,000 level [8]

Market Overview - International gold prices rebounded on February 6, closing at $4,943.70 per ounce after reaching a high of $4,964.75 and a low of $4,655.31 [1] - The market experienced fluctuations with gold prices initially dropping to $4,655 before rebounding and closing higher [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly reduce its balance sheet, suggesting a decision may take up to a year [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of maintaining current rates [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced that the U.S. will negotiate with Iran again, emphasizing that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons [3] - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that "zero enrichment" is unacceptable for Iran, highlighting uranium enrichment as a core issue in negotiations [3] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests cautious high short and low long positions due to ongoing market volatility and geopolitical tensions affecting gold prices [9]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Silver prices rose over 2.4% to $79.7 per ounce, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase for metals like gold, silver, and copper, as per Morgan Stanley's report [2] - Analysts suggest that the current adjustment in metal prices is a necessary pause in a long-term upward trend, with copper expected to rebound earlier than gold due to stronger fundamentals supported by the global manufacturing cycle [2] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not quickly act to reduce its balance sheet, even under the leadership of nominated Chair Powell, suggesting a decision timeline of up to a year [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the Fed may need to implement one or two more rate cuts to address the weak labor market, emphasizing the need for an open approach to interest rate decisions [5][6] - Current inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, but some officials expect a decline in commodity inflation by mid-year, which could lead to a stabilization of overall inflation [6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - Industrial silicon futures prices have hit a recent low, closing at 8,500 yuan per ton, down 3.95% for the week, primarily due to weak macro sentiment and a general decline in the non-ferrous sector [8] - The number of operational furnaces for industrial silicon has significantly decreased, with a total of 178 furnaces operating at a rate of 22.36%, a reduction of 32 from the previous week, influenced by planned production cuts from major manufacturers [9] - Demand for industrial silicon remains weak, with expectations of a drop in production to around 80,000 tons in February due to reduced operational rates and upcoming maintenance schedules [10]

在经历上周的巨震后，北京时间2月9日，现货黄金盘初持续走高，重新站上5000美元/盎司；现货白银盘中突破80美元/盎司。截至北京时间8时，现货黄 金报5029.785美元/盎司，日内涨超1%；现货白银报79.771美元/盎司，日内涨超2.5%。 北京时间2月9日，日韩股市大幅上涨。截至发稿，日经225指数涨4.52%；韩国KOSPI指数涨近4%。在经历上周的巨震后，现货黄金盘初持续走高，重新 站上5000美元/盎司；现货白银盘中突破80美元/盎司。 本周，宏观数据的密集发布成为市场的核心主线。受美国政府短暂停摆影响，美国1月非农就业报告推迟至2月11日发布。由于美国CPI数据也定于本周出 炉，市场将迎来非农和CPI数据的扎堆公布。作为美联储双重使命的关键经济数据，投资者将据此对美联储降息前景进行判断，或导致市场的波动风险显 著提升。 黄金、白银反弹 近期，国际贵金属市场风云变幻，黄金、白银频现急涨急跌走势。展望后市，多家机构研报分析，当前市场可能仍处于震荡盘整期，但中长期仍看好贵金 属上涨逻辑。 正信期货研报称，当前市场仍具有极高的不确定性。建议谨慎为主。中长期来看，贵金属供需结构矛盾仍存，将受益于地缘政治扰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may need to implement one or two more rate cuts to address the weakness in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly [2][3][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - The current situation for American workers is challenging, with rising prices eroding wage income and a scarcity of new job opportunities [4]. - Daly expressed greater concern about the labor market compared to inflation, noting an increase in parents reporting difficulties for their children in finding jobs, particularly among recent college graduates [7]. - There is a risk of increased layoffs if companies find that expected demand does not materialize, although Daly does not foresee a significant rise in inflation due to stable inflation expectations [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Data and Predictions - Key macroeconomic data, including the January non-farm payrolls and core Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be released soon, which will provide important insights into the Fed's policy direction [8]. - Analysts expect the January non-farm payroll growth to be between 60,000 and 80,000; a figure below this range could heighten expectations for rate cuts [8]. - The January core CPI is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the overall CPI expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.5% [9]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in July, with probabilities for rate cuts in March and April also being assessed [10]. - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut by March stands at 23.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 76.8% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound after a significant drop, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and suggesting that patience may be more important than immediate trading actions [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $4792.00 per ounce, hitting a low of $4402.14 before rebounding to a high of $5091.81 mid-week, ultimately closing at $4960.86, marking a weekly increase of $95.75 or 1.97% from the previous week's close of $4865.11 [1][3]. Market Influences - The market was influenced by previous selling pressure, easing geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's comments on potential interest rate cuts, which contributed to a stronger fundamental outlook for gold [3][5]. - Profit-taking and renewed geopolitical tensions led to fluctuations in gold prices, but underlying support from buying interest and inflation expectations helped gold to recover [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and unemployment rates, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, reinforcing a bullish outlook despite potential volatility [5]. - Recent data showed a decline in job openings to 6.54 million and an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000, indicating a cooling labor market that may support lower inflation and bolster market expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices remain above key support levels, suggesting a continued bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining above $4300 as a critical support level [7][8]. - Daily charts show a rebound in gold prices, although resistance at the 10-day moving average remains unbroken, indicating potential for further fluctuations [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4910 or $4800, while resistance levels are at $5100 or $5190 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $77.70 or $74.70, with resistance at $83.10 or $86.10 [10].

Group 1 - The global stock and commodity markets experienced significant volatility this week, with a 1.5% decline in the global stock index and a 4% drop in the Nasdaq 100 index [3][4][5]. - Commodity prices also saw large fluctuations, with gold dropping by 10% and silver experiencing even larger declines [6][7]. - However, by Friday evening, global markets rebounded sharply, with the global stock index rising over 2% and commodities like gold and silver also increasing significantly [10][11][12]. Group 2 - The initial market volatility was attributed to concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, especially following Trump's nomination of a hawkish candidate for the Fed [15][16]. - This uncertainty led to a tightening of liquidity, adversely affecting leveraged investors and growth-style stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity changes [17][23]. - The Fed's recent comments indicating a potential decrease in inflation helped alleviate short-term liquidity concerns, contributing to the market rebound on Friday [18][20][22]. Group 3 - The tightening of liquidity this year has been particularly unfavorable for leveraged investors and growth/small-cap stocks, leading to potential short-term volatility [23][24]. - Despite this, the Fed is expected to cut rates again in 2026, and there is currently ample liquidity in both USD and RMB markets [25][27]. - Attention should be paid to the trends in USD interest rates in the second half of the year, as the Fed's rate cycle typically lasts 3-5 years [28][30]. Group 4 - A star rating chart for the global stock market indicates that the market was undervalued in previous years (2018, 2020, 2022) and has recently returned to a rating of around 4.1-4.2 stars after a significant drop in April 2025 [32]. - Currently, the global stock index is rated around 2.9 stars, suggesting it is not particularly cheap [32]. - The star rating system indicates that a 4-5 star rating represents relatively low valuation, while a 1-2 star rating indicates a high valuation [33]. Group 5 - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with a total scale exceeding one trillion USD, but there are currently no such funds available in mainland China [35]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across various stock markets, including US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [36]. - Interested investors can engage with the advisory service to simulate similar investment effects [37][39]. Group 6 - The new book "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released and quickly topped sales charts on platforms like JD.com [41]. - This book aims to address common questions about dividend products and is designed to be accessible for beginners, allowing for quick reading and understanding [43][44].