美联储降息
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黄金市场短期迎调整,把握黄金ETF国泰(518800)、黄金股票ETF(517400)逢低布局机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-03 01:32
Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant adjustments, with COMEX gold prices dropping below 4500 due to market concerns over monetary policy tightening following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair who favors a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" approach [1] Market Dynamics - Recent price surges in gold led to profit-taking, with London gold prices nearing 5600 USD/ounce, prompting CME to raise futures margin requirements, which further pressured short-term leveraged funds [1] - The market is currently sensitive to negative news, resulting in a sharp adjustment driven by emotional and trading structure responses [1] Future Outlook - In the short term, after the release of concentrated selling pressure, there may be a rebound and recovery window due to overselling [2] - Long-term expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain stable, with CME FedWatch indicating a forecast of two rate cuts this year, suggesting that financial support for gold prices is intact [2] - Geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Iran, U.S. claims over Greenland, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to elevate risk and support demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The logic supporting gold prices remains valid, driven by the "Federal Reserve rate cut cycle + increasing global uncertainty + trends of de-dollarization" [2] - Investors are encouraged to monitor investment opportunities in gold ETFs such as Guotai (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [2]
国投白银LOF单日跌幅达31.5%,创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录
Huan Qiu Wang· 2026-02-03 01:17
【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2月3日凌晨,国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一,COMEX黄金期货跌1.35%报4680.90美元/盎司, COMEX白银期货涨0.93%报79.27美元/盎司。 此前一日,受到金价、银价及其他金属价格大幅波动影响,周一A股深度调整,黄金、有色、化工、石油天然气等资源股大面积 跌停;香港恒生指数收跌2.23%报26775.57点,黄金股同样成为"重灾区"。 特别是国投白银LOF复牌后"一字跌停",国投瑞银盘后发布公告称,由于国际白银价格极端波动,为避免基金净值虚高,决定参 考国际白银价格调整基金估值。2月2日,调整后的净值为2.2494元,单日跌幅高达31.5%,创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录。据此 计算,目前二级市场价格溢价率达109.92%。 《环球邮报》发文称,1月30日现货黄金价格暴跌近10%,创1983年以来最大单日跌幅,跌破此前刚刚突破的每盎司5000美元的 历史里程碑,今年大部分收益化为乌有;白银在同一天下跌了27%,创下了历史纪录的单日跌幅。但分析师普遍认为这只是暂时 的,独立的金属交易员Tai Wong认为,黄金价格可能会经历一段时间的盘整,在接下来的几周或几个月内再创新 ...
贵金属:贵金属日报2026-02-03-20260203
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 01:01
【行情资讯】 沪金涨 3.61 %,报 1045.00 元/克,沪银跌 17.04 %,报 20600.00 元/千克;COMEX 金 4701.10 美元/盎司,COMEX 银报 79.62 美元/盎司;美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.26%,美元指数报 97.12; 周一黄金白银遭到剧烈抛售,均砸至跌停板,沪银沪金夜盘均收跌,市场宏观预期快速反转, 前期累积多头集中踩踏离场,价差走阔。同时,上期所与上金所于当日同步上调白银交易保证 金比例、扩大涨跌停板幅度的监管措施使得杠杆资金被迫被动减仓离场,进一加剧盘面与价差 的极端波动。 2026 年 1 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 52.6,大幅超出预期(48.5)及前值(47.9),为 2022 年 8 月以来最高,且自 2025 年 2 月后首次突破荣枯线,标志着制造业结束连续 10 个月收缩、 回归扩张。标普全球数据同步显示当月工厂产出创 2022 年 5 月以来最大涨幅,印证行业阶段 性回暖。 分项来看,需求端反弹。新订单指数从 47.7 跳升至 57.1(2022 年 2 月以来最高),带动生产 指数从 50.7 升至 55.9,产出表现强劲 ...
特朗普提名沃什领导美联储 摩根士丹利建议逢低买入新兴市场 预计6月美联储重启降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-03 00:24
美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什领导美联储,摩根士丹利策略师指出,这一变动并不意味着新兴市场行 情走向终结。 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成,仅供参考,不构成个人投资建议。 摩根士丹利策略师James Lord、Simon Waever等人在报告中写道,"新兴市场牛市可能依然完好",投资 者仍应逢低买入新兴市场本地资产,背后的支撑因素在于其基本面依然稳健,货币政策继续发挥压舱石 作用。他们认为,上周后期的价格波动"可能是由于投资者措手不及,在外汇市场仓位错误而被放大", 并强调"逢低买入是明智之举,配置新兴市场本地资产的理由比美联储人事变动的影响更为充分"。 来源:市场资讯 摩根士丹利预计美联储将于6月恢复降息。哥伦比亚上周五加息,被其视作新兴市场央行采取支持本币 行动的最新例证。 ...
有色金属行业周报:国内电铜库存开始去化,价格或走强
Huaxin Securities· 2026-02-03 00:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Insights - The domestic copper inventory is beginning to decrease, which may lead to stronger prices [6]. - The gold market is expected to stabilize and rise further due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The aluminum supply remains rigid, supporting the investment outlook for the aluminum sector [11]. - Tin prices are expected to be supported by tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony prices are rebounding after a six-month decline, indicating potential investment opportunities [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 22.6%, a 3-month increase of 35.7%, and a 12-month increase of 128.5% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4981.85 per ounce, with a week-on-week increase of $35.60, or 0.72%. Silver prices were $103.19 per ounce, up $4.19, or 4.23% [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices closed at $13,440 per ton on the LME, up $460 per ton, or 3.54%. SHFE copper closed at ¥103,170 per ton, up ¥2,120, or 2.10% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥24,640 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of ¥510 [7]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥423,630 per ton, down ¥110, or 0.03%. The supply and demand for tin are weak, leading to a price fluctuation around high levels [9]. - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions, with current prices at ¥160,000 per ton [10]. Recommended Stocks - For the gold sector, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International. In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining. For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12].
美联储博斯蒂克:或许一两次降息就能达到中性水平
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 23:55
钛媒体App 2月3日消息,美联储博斯蒂克称,或许一两次降息就能达到中性水平;之前预计2026年不会 有任何降息。(广角观察) ...
闪迪飙涨15%,美股半导体深夜爆发,国际油价大跳水,特朗普称将降低印度关税至18%
21世纪经济报道· 2026-02-02 23:15
Market Overview - On February 2, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, S&P 500 up 0.54%, and Nasdaq up 0.56% [1] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Apple rising over 4% and Nvidia falling nearly 3% [2] Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.7%, with Micron Technology up over 5% and Intel up nearly 5% [2] - SanDisk's stock surged over 15% due to better-than-expected earnings, while Western Digital and Seagate also saw gains [3] - NAND flash memory prices are expected to rise by over 30% according to reports from SK Hynix and SanDisk [3] Energy Sector - The energy sector experienced declines, with ExxonMobil down over 2% and Chevron down more than 1% [3] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.71%, closing at $62.14 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin prices rose above $78,000 after previously dipping to around $74,560, with significant market volatility leading to over 170,000 liquidations [4] - Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.61 billion in January 2026, indicating liquidity issues in the market [4] International Relations and Trade - A trade agreement between the US and India was announced, reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, effective immediately [5] - India is expected to increase its procurement of US products, including energy and agricultural goods, valued at over $500 billion [5] - The Indian stock index Nifty 50 saw a rise in futures, and the Indian Rupee strengthened against the US dollar following the trade announcement [6]
盘前:纳指期货跌0.66% 小摩与美银坚定6000美元金价信仰
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 13:44
Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a "collective retreat" with the S&P 500 futures indicating a fourth consecutive day of decline for U.S. stocks [2][27] - As of the latest update, Dow futures fell by 0.09%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 0.66% [3][28] - Asian markets faced heavier declines, with the South Korean Kospi index plummeting by 5.3%, triggering a temporary trading halt [3][28] Commodity Market Volatility - Extreme volatility in the commodity market remains a focal point, with gold prices initially dropping by 10% before narrowing losses, and silver prices falling by 16% before recovering most of the decline [5][30] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metals futures, increasing holding costs for traders, which typically pressures prices and trading activity [5][30][31][32] Federal Reserve Leadership Impact - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is shifting market expectations towards "less/fewer rate cuts," impacting precious metals prices [12][37] - Analysts suggest that Walsh's past criticisms of the Fed and focus on price stability may lead to a reassessment of the dollar's depreciation narrative, contributing to the recent drop in gold, silver, and copper prices [12][37] Upcoming Economic Data and Earnings Reports - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, expected to show an increase of 68,000 jobs, the largest gain in four months, scheduled for release on Friday [12][41] - A busy earnings week is anticipated, with major companies like Google and Amazon set to report their quarterly results [41][42] Individual Stock Movements - Energy stocks are experiencing pre-market declines, with Occidental Petroleum down 3.1% and ConocoPhillips down 2.6% [43] - Rare earth stocks surged in pre-market trading following President Trump's announcement of a $12 billion mineral reserve initiative [43] - Disney shares rose by 4% in pre-market trading after reporting quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations [44]
现货黄金盘中跌破4500美元!白银1个月涨幅 2天跌没了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 10:33
北京时间2日午后,黄金、白银价格继续下探。 截至发稿,现货黄金向下跌破4500美元/盎司,日内下跌7.5%,现货白银日内跌幅超14%,近一个月涨 幅已抹平。 白银/美元 8 1 Q | 旅方 t 时期 XAG 72.75 今开 82.68 最高 87.95 最低 72.75 -14.11% -11.95 总手 - 结算 -- 昨结 84.70 更多 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多,较 均线 · MA5:100.43↓ 10:99.29↓ 20:92.56↓ DK点 121.65-> 121.65 101.07 80.48 59.89 > 来源:每日经济新闻 消息面上,本周,全球市场将面临美非农就业数据出炉、欧英央行公布利率决议以及日本众议院选举等 多项重大事件的考验。 北京时间2月6日,美国将公布1月非农就业数据,市场聚焦通胀下行风险对美联储下一次利率决议的影 响。而据CME"美联储观察"最新统计,美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为15.3%,维持利率不变的概 率为84.7%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为29.0%,维持利率不变的概率为68.0%,累计降息 50个基点的概率为3.0%。到6月累计 ...
本周非农来了,黄金继续暴跌!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 10:27
在2026年开年之际,全球贵金属市场经历了一场前所未有的剧烈震荡。黄金价格从历史高点近5600美元急转直下,单日暴跌近10%,银价更是重挫近 30%,创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅。 今日欧市盘中,现货黄金失守4500美元,为1月9日以来首次,日内重挫7.9%,目前在4635美元附近徘徊。现货白银一度跌破73美元,目前在78.05美元 附近徘徊。 国内黄金品牌金饰价格方面,2月2日,周生生足金饰品价格为1484元/克,较1月29日(国际金价创历史新高日)下降224元;周六福足金饰品价格1484 元/克,较1月29日下降217元/克;周大福足金价格为1489元/克,较1月29日跌217元/克;老庙足金饰品价格为1509元/克,较1月29日跌217元/克。 非农来袭! 上周五,美股三大股指全线收跌,截至收盘,道指收跌0.36%,标普500指数跌0.43%,纳斯达克综合指数跌0.94%。 展望本交易日,全球资本市场同时面对宏观数据密集发布、主要央行政策节点、以及关键政治事件的多重考验。 首先是,美国非农就业数据。 本周五,美国劳工部将公布 1 月非农就业数据,这依然是全球市场最重要的宏观事件之一,其核心意义在于:评估美 ...