1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations. It is necessary to wait for the clarity of peak - season demand. The support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 yuan and 3160 yuan respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading strategy suggests shorting Iron Ore 2601 on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy recommends going long on coking coal and shorting iron ore [3]. Coke Industry - There is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price hikes. The coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities, but the excessive premium and rising coal prices may have fully exhausted the previous positive expectations [5]. Coking Coal Industry - Considering the pre - parade production restrictions of Hebei steel mills, the molten iron output in August may drop to around 236 tons per day. The speculative strategy suggests taking profits and waiting, and the arbitrage strategy recommends going long on coking coal and shorting iron ore [3][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, and 3450 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts showed mixed changes, with the 05 - contract up 12 yuan to 3314 yuan/ton, the 10 - contract down 1 yuan to 3188 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract up 2 yuan to 3269 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China rose 10 yuan to 3460 yuan/ton, in North China fell 10 yuan to 3420 yuan/ton, and in South China remained unchanged at 3450 yuan/ton. Futures contracts also showed increases [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan to 3368 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 27 yuan to 3192 yuan/ton. Profits for rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.2 to 240.7, and the output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, with growth rates of 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5, a decrease of 0.3%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, an increase of 0.2% [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2, a 5.5% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5, a 0.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.1 to 10.5, a 25.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. Rebar's apparent demand decreased by 20.9 to 189, a 9.9% decrease, while hot - rolled coil's apparent demand increased by 8.2 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different iron ore powders also increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 36.5, a 3.9% increase, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 to 20.5, a 6.8% decrease [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The monthly national iron output decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0, a 1.5% decrease [3]. - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7, a 4.0% increase [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.2 to 13819.27, a 0.1% increase, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4, a 1.4% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi Grade I wet - quenched coke increased by 52 to 1399, a 3.9% increase, and the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - Grade I wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures contracts showed increases [5]. - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. Coking coal futures contracts also showed increases [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase [5]. - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.2% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5].

8月18日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报5103.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，PVC主力最高触及5119.00元，下方探低5038.00元，跌幅达1.33%附近。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中辉期货表示，主力换月，印度公布最新反倾销税，中国出口优势减弱，社会库存连续8周累库，仓单 继续大幅增加，关注成本端焦煤动态。上游开工继续提升，本周君正、中泰等多套装置计划检修，预计 周产量下滑。8月新产能陆续释放，内外需求淡季，出口签单周环比走弱，产业链累库压力仍存。策 略：空单持有。V【5050-5250】。 五矿期货分析称，基本面上企业综合利润位于年内高位，估值压力较大，检修量偏少，产量位于历史高 位，短期多套装置投产，下游方面国内开工五年期低位水平，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期 可能存在抢出口，成本端电石回落，烧碱反弹，整体估值支撑进一步走弱。整体而言，供强需弱且高估 值的现实下，基本面较差，需要观察后续出口是否超预期扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复， 建议观望。 瑞达期货（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease and supply surplus pressure rises, leading to a downward trend in oil prices, but the decline space is narrowing [1][4] - LPG: High basis and improved downstream demand lead to a short - term rebound, and long positions can be partially taken profit [1][9] - L: With the approaching of the shed film peak season, the demand side strengthens, and it is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [1][16] - PP: Although the cost is weak in the short term, with the approaching of the demand peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [1][23] - PVC: After India announced the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1][30] - PX: The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and with the weakening of oil prices, it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [1][35] - PTA: Although the supply pressure is expected to increase later, considering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [1][39] - Ethylene glycol: Supply increases and demand is expected to recover, but the inventory is low, so it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [2][43] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases and demand is weak, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][47] - Urea: Supply is sufficient and domestic demand is weak, but export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][51] - Asphalt: The cost is under pressure and supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season, so it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 3.10% (due to contract roll - over), Brent decreased 1.48%, and SC rose 0.62% [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices. In the medium - long term, oil prices may be pressed to around $60 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August output was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to grow by 685,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 699,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week ending August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [475 - 495] [6] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PG main contract closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weak, but the basis is high, and the supply and demand situation improves with both supply and inventory decreasing, leading to a short - term rebound [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the price mainly follows the oil price. Partially take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3830 - 3930] [10] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,251 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Ningmei in North China was 7,280 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, the basis weakens. With more device maintenance recently, the supply pressure eases. The shed film peak season is approaching, and the demand side strengthens. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [17] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China drawn wire was 7,051 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices decline, spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the basis weakens. Although the upstream maintains high - level maintenance, the demand peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season and buy on dips [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,954 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 399 [27][28] - **Basic Logic**: After the main contract roll - over and India's announcement of the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to hold short positions [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then short [31] 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side slightly increases production, the demand side weakens but is expected to improve. The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6620 - 6720] [36] 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton [37][38] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to increase later. However, with the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step by step, buy put options, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for TA. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4680 - 4750] [40] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton [41][42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply increases, and the demand is expected to recover. Although the inventory is low, it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4380 - 4425] [44] 3.9 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the 01 main contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton [46] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure increases as the previous maintenance devices resume production, and the demand is weak. The social inventory accumulates, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step by step, look for long - buying opportunities on 01, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage in batches. Pay attention to the range of MA [2390 - 2420] [48] 3.10 Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - granular urea in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is sufficient, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and considering the potential of the autumn fertilizer peak season and export speculation, look for long - buying opportunities on 01. Pay attention to the range of UR [1725 - 1750] [53] 3.11 Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost is under pressure, supply increases while demand decreases, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [2] 3.12 Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5043 - 5151. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9][12][13]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Base Price**: On August 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 167 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a 3.68% decrease, and the ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a 1.14% decrease. The social inventory was 492,800 tons, a 2.49% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises was 5.4 days, a 3.57% decrease, which is a bearish signal [10]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which is a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a 0.01 - percentage - point increase. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a 1.67% increase, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a 0.28% decrease. The supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a 0.10 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a 0.869 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a 4.06 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a 0.429 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 8.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 10.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,680.05 yuan/ton, with a profit decrease of 0.00% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the base price trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the base price, the East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The report shows the price and volume trend chart of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the spread of the main contract, presenting the spread trends of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Related Factors - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and other data trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025, as well as the cost - profit, double - ton spread, and other data of the calcium carbide method and the chlorine - alkali industry [27][29][31][33][36]. - **Supply Trend**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and other data trends of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: The report shows the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and other data trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025, as well as the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and other data related to PVC demand, and the social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, infrastructure investment, and other macro - demand - related data [44][46][48][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows the data trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The report shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [63].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with multiple factors affecting supply, demand, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral [4]. - Basis: Spot price is 14,750, basis is - 1,155, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main positions: The main net position is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing, which is a bearish factor [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period, which is a bullish factor [29]. - Tire industry exports are falling, which is a bearish factor [32]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, which is a bearish factor [23][26]. - **Price** - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 15 [8]. - The basis weakened on August 15 [35]. - **Inventory** - Exchange inventory has increased recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Bullish Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6]. - **Bearish Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Qingdao area did not have seasonal inventory reduction [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "818 Financial Live Streaming Week" aims to address investors' concerns about navigating the complex financial market, focusing on both identifying genuine opportunities and avoiding risks associated with non-standard financial activities [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Securities Times and supported by the Capital Market Investor Education "Spark Plan," featuring five specialized sessions and numerous experienced financial instructors from leading financial institutions [1][2]. - The live streaming will take place from August 18 to 22, with daily sessions at 15:00 on the Securities Times website, app, and video channels [1][8]. Group 2: Session Breakdown - **August 18 (Asset Allocation Session)**: Experts will discuss practical strategies for achieving stable returns amidst market volatility, focusing on "cash is king" and "cross-cycle allocation" [4]. - **August 19 (Stock Investment Session)**: The session will help novice investors build their investment framework by covering stock fundamentals, technical analysis, and market information collection [5]. - **August 20 (Fund Investment Session)**: This session will explain advanced techniques for fund investment, emphasizing the importance of systematic investment plans for ordinary investors [6]. - **August 21 (Futures Investment Session)**: Experts will analyze the practical applications of futures and options, providing insights into investment, hedging, and arbitrage strategies [7]. - **August 22 (Financial Literacy Session)**: The focus will be on financial education for both youth and general investors, exploring effective money management [8]. Group 3: Educational Initiative - The "Spark Plan" is a collaborative initiative involving multiple stakeholders, including stock exchanges and investor service centers, aimed at creating a comprehensive investor education platform [8]. - Since its launch on May 15, 2024, the initiative has attracted over 100 institutions and reached more than 50 million investors through quality content and innovative activities [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. (嘉化能源), is actively engaging in shareholder meetings and stock repurchase activities, reflecting its financial strategies and governance changes. Company Announcements - The company will hold its second extraordinary general meeting on August 22, 2025, to discuss several key matters including the semi-annual profit distribution plan, amendments to the articles of association, and additional authorization for futures trading for the year 2025 [1][4] - As of June 30, 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 580.59 million yuan, and the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling around 263.79 million yuan [2] - The company has decided to abolish the supervisory board, transferring its responsibilities to the audit committee of the board of directors [2] Share Buyback Progress - As of August 14, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 27,906,500 shares, accounting for 2.06% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 242.44 million yuan [3][4] - The maximum price for the repurchase was adjusted to 11.82 yuan per share, with the repurchase plan expected to be executed within 12 months following the approval at the annual general meeting [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It points out that most products have a bearish short - term outlook, with supply - demand imbalances and technical indicators suggesting downward trends. The market trends of some products are also affected by the movement of crude oil and other factors [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: In September, the production increase is 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US leads to weak apparent demand, and the geopolitical situation has an impact. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and it's considered a small - scale repair after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure on the hourly level is at 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: In August, demand is still in the off - season and remains weak. The supply operation rate is maintained at a high level of around 77%, and new device production will increase supply pressure. Inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year, and supply - demand is weak [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although the rainy season in the production area has an impact, there is no extreme weather. Short - term improvement in downstream tire operation provides some support, but high tire inventory restricts further improvement. The medium - term fundamental driving force is downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was an upward movement in the afternoon today, testing the short - term pressure at 15950 but not breaking through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires has a weak medium - term outlook. The supply side has not fully resumed production after maintenance, and production is relatively high under the pressure of new production capacity, so it is bearish in the medium - term. It is supported in the short - term by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It followed the upward movement of rubber in the afternoon today, but the trading volume was weaker. The short - term pressure at 11950 for the 10 - contract remains effective. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The upstream PX devices are operating stably. The downstream terminal's operating rate has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but the short - term contradiction is not significant, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's movement is considered a rebound after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: The demand for polyester is weak. The supply - side operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year, and short - term inventory has shifted to accumulation. The contradiction is not obvious, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in][21]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, the downstream operating rate is weak. With the launch of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in all links of the industry chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. It is also necessary to pay attention to the movement of crude oil [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without changing the downward structure. The hourly - level pressure is at 7195, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on at 7090 first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The supply - side operating rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, reaching the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival volume in July was low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but it is expected to increase significantly in August. Downstream demand is differentiated, and port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years under high - supply pressure, so the fundamental driving force is weak [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume long - negative line after increasing positions, and it accelerated downward after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure has moved down to 2360 (09 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28]. PVC - Logic: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real - estate market and the off - season. Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. After a large - volume long - negative line with increased positions today, it remains on a downward path. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle and consider moving positions to the 01 contract [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upside space. It is necessary to pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, waiting to confirm the downward acceleration after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The increase in operating rate and the launch of new production capacity lead to large supply pressure. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level year - on - year, and inventory in ports and society continues to accumulate, so the supply - demand driving force is bearish [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, while the 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 7320 [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. The speculative demand in the glass market has weakened except for rigid demand. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on soda ash supply [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. It tested the short - term pressure today but failed and closed with a long upper shadow. The 09 and 01 contracts have different structures, with the 09 contract in a downward trend and the 01 contract in an upward trend. The short - term pressure of the 09 contract is at 1295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference at 1310 [37][39]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The demand side has a high operating rate for alumina, and the operating rate of non - aluminum demand for viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The 09 and 01 contracts still have different structures, with the 01 contract being stronger and the 09 contract being weaker. It oscillated on the disk today. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute support at 2510, with a stop - loss at today's high [41][43].