（原标题：重磅政策发布，最新研判来了！） 【导读】"一揽子金融政策"发布，机构最新解读 中国基金报记者 莫琳 5月7日上午，央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清在国新办发布会上介 绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。发布会上推出多项重磅政策，涉及股 市、楼市、外贸等多项热点内容。 综合多家券商解读，大家普遍认为此次发布会在金融领域清晰传递了短期稳预期和长期调结构的政策逻 辑。"一揽子金融政策"兼具力度与精准度，为应对外部冲击和经济稳中求进奠定了坚实的基础。 与"9·24"国新会有何不同？ 此次国新办再次较为罕见地将新闻发布会时间提前至上午9点。此前在9点召开发布会，分别是2024年9 月24日和2025年1月23日，尤其是去年的"9·24行情"让不少投资者对此次会议充满期待。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园指出，不同之处是去年"9·24会议"属于大超预期，也是大转向，本次则属于 预期之内、是"4·25"政治局会议精神的落地。往后看，不少增量政策应还在路上，尤其是财政发力、扩 内需、稳外贸等，可能的包括增加预算、增发国债或专项债、"两新""两重"加力扩围、大力发展服务消 费 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The core viewpoint of the article is that China has introduced a comprehensive set of policies to stabilize the economy amidst global uncertainties, focusing on monetary policy, regulatory reforms, and capital market support [1][4] - The policy aims to boost market confidence through five key areas: stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and strengthening technology [1][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is identified as a crucial pillar of economic confidence, with policies targeting both demand and supply sides [1] - On the demand side, the policy includes a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates and expectations of lower Loan Prime Rates (LPR), easing the mortgage burden on residents [1] - On the supply side, the policy accelerates the development of financing systems that align with new real estate models, addressing the reasonable financing needs of property companies [1] Group 3: Stock Market Stability - The stability of the stock market is emphasized as vital for the broader economic landscape and investor interests, supported by long-term capital and institutional safeguards [2] - Following the "924 New Policy" in 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2700 to 3400 points, indicating strong market resilience despite recent tariff disruptions [2] - The A-share market saw significant gains on May 7, with all three major indices closing higher [2] Group 4: Consumption Promotion - Structural tools have been implemented to stimulate consumption, which is key for expanding domestic demand [2] - A special quota of 500 billion yuan has been established for service and elderly care loans, encouraging banks to increase credit supply and activate demand in various service sectors [2] - The reduction of reserve requirements for auto finance and leasing companies aims to lower their liabilities, directly stimulating automotive consumption and equipment investment [2] Group 5: Foreign Trade and Technology - Policies to stabilize foreign trade include financial support, export insurance enhancements, and integrated domestic and foreign trade strategies [3] - The financing coordination mechanism now includes all foreign trade enterprises, providing tailored support to those affected by external shocks [3] - The bond market is fostering new productive forces by supporting the issuance of long-term technology bonds focused on sectors like AI, quantum technology, and biomedicine [3]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 策略类●证券研究报告 政策强化股市震荡偏强的趋势 事件点评 投资要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行、国家金融监 督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳 预期"有关情况。 发布会侧重落实政治局会议的政策方向，货币宽松和支持科技创新是重点。（1） 央行出台的 10 项政策措施主要集中在货币宽松、稳定楼市和消费、支持科技创新、 稳定股市：一是降准 0.5 个百分点释放长期流动性约 1 万亿、下调 7 天逆回购利率 0.1 个百分点、下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，这些均是为了给市场 增加长期流动性、降低融资成本；二是降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分 点，目的是刺激居民购房需求、稳定楼市；三是设立 5000 亿服务消费与养老再贷 款，目的是进一步提振消费；四是将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度由 5000 亿增 加到 8000 亿，同时创设科技创新债券风险分担工具，支持科技创新的政策导向明 确。五是将互换便利 5000 亿元和股票回购增持再贷款 3000 亿元额度合并使用， 总额度 ...

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行、金融监管总局和证监会共同介绍"一揽子金融政策支持 稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次一揽子金融政策着力于五个方面，即稳市场、稳预期、扩内需、促科创、扶企 业。锚定上述目标，货币政策、金融监管政策和资本市场政策环环相扣、组合发力，兼顾稳定与发展，对实体 经济和资本市场提供全方位支持。 一、政策梳理：金融政策全方位发力 一是货币政策，包括三大类共十项措施。 总量上，如期落地全面降准降息，对已适用存款准备金率最低标准 的汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司的法准率阶段性调降至0，降息同时涉及逆回购利率、LPR、结构性货币工具 利率以及公积金贷款利率；结构上，新增"服务消费与养老再贷款"，创设"科技创新债券风险分担工具"，扩大 已有的"科技创新和技术改造再贷款"，合并两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具，旨在支持科技创新、扩大消 费、稳定股市。 表1：十项货币政策增量措施 | 三大类 | 政策意图 | 十项措施 | | --- | --- | --- | | 数量型 | 保持流动性 | 降低存款准备金利率 0.5pct，将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿。 | | 政策 | 充裕 | 完善 ...

2. 政策跟踪： 加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地 2.1 中央政治局会议："坚定不移办好自己的事" 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议对外部风险高度警惕，对 内强调"办好自己的事"，并将"稳就业"放在更加突出位置。针对当前国际形势，政治局会议将其上升为"国 际经贸斗争"，与"反腐败斗争"措辞一致。在外部高度不确定性环境下，会议更加关注内部的高质量发展， 强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。 未来，政策的灵活性和超常规性将兼备，会议提出"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 逆周期调节"。因当前美国政策的高度不确定性，我国经济表现的可预测性也有所下降。再结合政治局会 议"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"的表述，预计后续政策高度关注经济数据的边际变化，在数据波动加大 的时间段再度加码，保证经济增长的稳定性。 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 政策跟踪 政治局会议要求对既定政策的快速落实，明确提出"加紧实施"，"既定政策早出台早见效"。首先，政治 局会议敦促既定政策落地，预计两会相关政策后续落实速度将进一步 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布有哪些增量信息？ ——政策专题（0507） "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会超预期部署超过 20 项增量政策， 落地全面降准降息、四月政治局会议提到的新增结构性货币政策工具、以及经 济主题记者会提到的公募基金改革方案等政策，诚意满满，有望推动市场风险 偏好持续上行。 ❑ 风险提示：政策理解不全面、经济数据及政策不及预期、海外政策超预期收 紧。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《四月政治局会议有哪些要 点？——政策专题（0425）》 2025-4-25 2、《历史上，我国出台过哪些 促消费政策 —— 扩内需政策 研究专题（一）》2025-04-07 3、《经济主题记者会值得重点 关注的 19 条重要增量信息—— 政策点评报告》2025-03-07 4、《2025 年政府工作报告怎么 看？对 A 股有什么影响？—— 政策专题》2025-03-05 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.co ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3][4] - The central bank also lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1 percentage points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which will lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and Demand Expansion - The measures aim to address external shocks, expand domestic demand, and reduce the cost of bank liabilities, especially in light of ongoing global trade tensions and low domestic inflation [4][5] - The central bank is also focusing on boosting consumer spending and investment by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and leasing companies to 0% and establishing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension re-loan" to support financial institutions in these sectors [6][8] Group 3: Support for Enterprises and Foreign Trade - Increased financing support for small and micro enterprises is a priority, with an additional 300 billion yuan allocated for agricultural and small enterprise re-loans, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan [8][9] - The financial regulatory authority plans to implement a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade, including enhancing export credit insurance and providing tailored financial services for affected enterprises [9][10] Group 4: Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged adjustment, with first-tier cities experiencing a rebound in second-hand housing prices [12][13] - Measures include lowering mortgage rates and public housing loan rates to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate demand [13][14] Group 5: Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed confidence in stabilizing the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering from previous lows and showing an 8.91% increase [17][18] - Future policies will focus on internal stability, institutional reforms, and external openness to enhance market resilience [17][22] Group 6: Technological Innovation Financing - The government aims to establish a comprehensive financial system to support technological innovation through various financing channels, including loans, equity financing, and bond issuance [23][24] - Specific measures include promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds and enhancing insurance coverage for technology enterprises [26][29]

5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券 监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，贯彻4月25日中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，推动经济高质量发展，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措施。其中，他提到，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕；下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利 率，同时调降公积金贷款利率。创设并加力实施结构性货币政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融 等领域。降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 ▲发布会现场 中国人民大学中国资本市场研究院联席院长赵锡军表示，这一揽子政策有很强的前瞻性和针对性，有很强的 政策力度，包含了丰富的结构性工具。浙商资产研究院总经理冯毅表示，出台降准降息等一揽子货币政策， 对推动经济高质量发展以及扩大内需都有更好的促进作用。 一揽子政策主打前瞻性和针对性 潘功胜在发布会上称，去年12月中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告都明确提出，今年要实施适度宽松的 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[2] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards, aiming to reduce financing costs for the real economy[5] - The PBOC increased the quota for technology innovation re-loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and lowered the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%[18] Real Estate Sector Support - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments[15] - Policies focus on stimulating demand and alleviating risks in the real estate sector, promoting a shift towards a new development model[17] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC increased the quota for re-loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan[23] - A comprehensive policy package is being developed to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing their operational vitality[23] Capital Market Support Policies - The PBOC will optimize two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging a total quota of 800 billion yuan for securities and stock repurchase[30] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is revising regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the role of capital markets in resource allocation[40] A-Share Market Outlook - As of May 7, the A-share index has increased by 0.50% year-to-date, with the overall market showing resilience despite external pressures[47] - The A-share index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.78, indicating it is at a historical median level, while the price-to-book ratio is at 1.53, suggesting relatively low valuations compared to global markets[47] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty regarding domestic policy effectiveness, geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment instability[54]

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 07 日 增量政策巩固市场回稳向好势头， 看好非银 Beta 属性 看好 ——国新办"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布 会点评 事件：5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关 情况，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清出席会 议。 ⚫ 央行：推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类（数量型政策、价格型政策、结构型政 策）共十项措施。价格工具方面，全面降准 0.5%，政策利率下调 0.1%，结构性货币政 策工具利率下调 0.25% ...