行情导读：临近年末欧美重要节日，美联储官员进一步释放鸽派信号，COMEX 白银天量空头头寸和交 割需求加剧现货供应紧张，机构提前加大对金属资产的配置布局继续推高价格。12 月 22 日日盘，沪 银主力合约 AG2602 涨幅一度超过 6%，铂钯期货主力 06 合约早间均触及 7%的涨停，国际金价突破 10 月 20 日以来的历史新高最高至 4400 美元/盎司上方，沪金主力合约 AU2602 涨幅超 2%重回 1000 元/克 上方。 驱动分析一：美国就业和通胀数据放缓支持美联储宽松政策，地缘冲突刺激贵金属走强 异动点评：欧美节日临近资金情绪仍较强驱动贵金属上涨 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 随着美国公布 11 月就业、通胀和消费等相关数据进一步显示劳动力市场下行风险和物价消费反弹 动力放缓，这有望进一步支持美联储的宽松措施。一方面，11 月美国失业率飙升至 4.6%创为 2021 年 以来最高水平，今年下半年以来非农新增人数月均仅为 2.28 万人，就业市场供需 ...

黄金 利好： 1. 全球央行持续购金数据披露(中国央行连续增持); 2. 美国 12 月 PCE 数据(通胀走弱强化降息预期); 3. 地缘冲突升级(中东、俄乌等)驱动避险资金流入 风险点： 1. 美联储官员鹰派表态，削弱降息预期; 2. 美元指数阶段性反弹，压制金价; 3. 高位获利回吐，引发短线回调 白银 利好： 1. 光伏行业年底补库，耗银需求阶段性放量; 2. 金银比修复，估值偏低带来补涨动力; 3. 美国 12 月制造业 PMI，若走弱提振工业金属需求预期 利好： 风险点： 1. 南非限电持续，矿山产量进一步下滑; 1. 隐含波动率处于历史高位，价格波动加剧; 2. 欧盟放宽燃油车禁令，汽车催化剂需求预期强化; 2. 高位投机资金获利了结，引发快速回调; 3. 氢能政策利好，燃料电池需求增长 3. 美国 232 白银调查结果临近公布，或触发抛压 风险点： 铂金 风险点： 期货公司观点 2. 全球汽车销量不及预期，拖累工业需求; 3. 库存数据超预期增加，缓解供需紧张 钯金 利好： 1. 汽车行业催化剂刚需稳定，与铂金替代效应显现; 2. 广期所铂钯期货期权吸引资金入场，提升流动性 1. 高位追涨资金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

---2026 年燃料油、低硫燃料油期货行情展望 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 估值已被重塑，静待明确驱动 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：经过一整年供需格局的演变之后，亚太的燃料油、低硫燃料油估值已经被完全重塑，目前处在历史低位，但结 合供需格局的现状来看，当下估值水平基本符合供需的现状。展望 2026 年，在估值完全重塑、供需重回紧平衡的前提下， 季节性以及突发事件形成的冲击将是未来行情的驱动。 我们的逻辑：制裁与地缘冲突导致俄罗斯的供应逐步下降，2026 年拉美的供应也有可能因为炼厂投产发生变化，中东地区 作为全球高硫组分供应的核心地区，其重要性将继续增强。而在需求端，船燃和发电仍然能够为高硫的估值提供支撑，只是 炼化端存在一定拖累。低硫方面，其消费情况从 2025 年的一些数据来看，可能已经处于近些年的底部，这意味着 2026 年需 求端的拖累作用可能逐步减弱。而在供应方面，巴西、印尼等弹性较低的地区依然占据主导地位，除此之外另一部分占据主 导地位的地区弹性则较大，这两部分地区的供应变化都会在短期内引发 ...

Group 1 - The term "far-right" is increasingly prevalent in European news, with parties like Italy's Brothers of Italy, Germany's Alternative for Germany, and Poland's new president gaining prominence, indicating a shift in the political landscape [1] - Ordinary Europeans are experiencing economic hardships, including rising energy prices and food costs, which has created a disconnect between mainstream politicians and the public, allowing far-right parties to resonate with voters by addressing immediate concerns like immigration control and cost of living [1] - The rise of far-right parties is linked to the challenges faced by ordinary citizens post-pandemic and during the Ukraine crisis, leading to a demand for more relatable political discourse [1] Group 2 - The immigration issue has exacerbated tensions, with an influx of refugees due to geopolitical conflicts leading to increased social unrest and competition for jobs and welfare resources [2] - In some areas of eastern Germany, residents express discomfort with the growing number of unfamiliar faces, which aligns with far-right narratives that blame social issues on immigration, thus attracting votes more effectively than mainstream parties advocating for inclusivity [2]

黄金价格逼近历史新高！单日狂飙200美元，央行购金量创十年新高 一、价格突破与市场震荡：30年一遇的"黄金风暴" 2025年12月12日，国际金价以雷霆之势突破4300美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.17%，创下自1979年以来的最 佳年度表现。国内金饰价格同步飙升至1337-1339元/克，深圳水贝等黄金交易市场的单日调价次数高达 3-5次，部分商户甚至因价格波动暂停回购业务。更令人震惊的是，纽约期金单日暴涨2%，白银价格同 步刷新历史高点至64.31美元/盎司，贵金属市场呈现"金银共舞"的狂热局面。 这场行情的剧烈程度堪比1980年黄金泡沫顶峰时期。国际清算银行（BIS）数据显示，2025年黄金年内 涨幅近60%，白银涨幅近100%，两者价格相关性飙升至0.22（历史均值0.02），呈现罕见的同步暴涨特 征。市场交易数据显示，黄金ETF价格持续高于资产净值（NAV），杠杆交易账户占比突破35%，投机 氛围浓厚。 二、驱动因素三重奏：从货币政策到地缘博弈 1. 美联储降息引爆流动性革命 美联储年内第三次降息至3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔释放"短期加息概率极低"的鸽派信号，直接压低持有黄 金的机会成本。追踪美元兑 ...

Group 1: Belarus Potash Sanctions - The U.S. announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, marking a significant shift in diplomatic relations [1][3] - The sanctions were initially imposed in August 2021 by the Biden administration due to alleged election manipulation, severely impacting Belarus's economy and foreign exchange sources [1] - The decision to lift the sanctions was made after a productive two-day meeting between U.S. officials and Belarusian President Lukashenko [2][3] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Changes - A major transformation is anticipated within the Federal Reserve, as the boundaries between the U.S. Treasury and the Fed become increasingly blurred, with the Treasury Secretary playing a crucial role [4] - The Fed is reportedly restarting asset purchases to provide financing support for U.S. Treasury expenditures, which may stabilize market fluctuations [4] - This new structure suggests tighter policy coordination and could lead to a significant shift in the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, with inflation becoming a dominant narrative in the next two years [4] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum, with a notable increase in global physical gold ETF inflows reaching $5.2 billion in November, marking six consecutive months of inflows [5] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price [5] - Long-term factors driving gold prices include central bank de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs in September and October, followed by a brief correction but maintaining an upward trajectory thereafter [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In November, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion, marking six consecutive months of inflows [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its price [1] - Increased demand for safe-haven assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold are reinforcing a high volatility and upward price trend in the gold market [1] Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release November non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [1] - Previous employment data indicated a deterioration in the labor market, but initial unemployment claims suggest a stable hiring environment [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to have a limited impact on gold prices, as the market has already priced in the recent interest rate cut [1][2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Long-term factors driving gold prices include global central bank de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [2] - The market anticipates a further weakening of the U.S. dollar index, which could support gold prices [2] - Despite gold prices hovering around $4,000 per ounce, there is no significant panic selling, indicating low bearish sentiment [2] - The current market trend favors buying on dips, with expectations of continued central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [3]

转自：期货日报 美联储降息如期而至，释放出扩表态度，加之地缘冲突再出新消息，驱动原油价格上行。 美联储如期降息25个基点 北京时间12月11日，美联储结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点，至3.5%~3.75%。这是美联储自今年9月以来的第3次降息，前两次分别为9月和10月，各降息25个基 点。本次降息符合市场预期，在消息落地后，美股三大指数均收涨，隔夜国际油价也大幅反弹。 值得注意的是，美联储也宣布，将于12月开始扩大其资产负债表规模，包括启动每月购买400亿美元短 期国债的储备管理计划（RMP)，并称RMP主要出于缓解市场流动性压力的考量，这表明美联储的思路 已经从缩表转向保证市场不会出现流动性危机。鲍威尔会后表示，美联储货币政策的目标是在通货膨胀 和充分就业之间达到平衡，短期通胀上行的原因是特朗普加征关税，而关税的影响是一次性的，随着关 税影响的消退，美国通胀将继续回到2%的水平，通过降息可以稳定就业市场。根据美国经济分析局公 布的数据，9月美国个人消费支出物价指数同比上涨2.8%，预期为2.8%，前值为2.7%。 本次会议通过降息+扩表的方式向市场注入宽松的信号，整 ...

本号在11月5日"重估黄金储备可行吗"那期里提过，川宝团队有重估镁国黄金储备的想法，甚至还有团 队成员想出售部分黄金储备；1999年至2002年间英国央行抛售了一半黄金储备，以应对财政赤字和公共 债务压力，导致金价一度暴跌32%。 李蓓还提到，未来人民币在国际储备中的角色可能上升，会部分替代对黄金的需求。确实，美元贬值时 的替代选项并非只有黄金一个，其他国家的货币和多种资产都可以作为替代选择，虽然它们各有不同的 优势和局限性。 金价自2019年进入牛市以来涨幅巨大，那时伦敦现货黄金才约1300美元一盎司，现在已经4300美元了， 有看涨到5000美元的，还有看涨到2万美元的，还有专家在4500美元时清仓了的，到底会怎样呢？观大 势，敏于时，我是敏时大观，听我细聊。 11月28日的峰会上，经济学家洪灝和投资专家李蓓都表示已高位卖掉黄金了。洪灝认为金价在经历大幅 上涨后已形成巨大的价格动能泡沫，需要时间消化。这很有道理，美元贬值、地缘冲突、央行买金等逻 辑早就被定价了。 地缘冲突如果没有在好转的话，也没有在恶化，顶多算僵持；镁国财政纪律松弛，公共债务高企，长期 来看美元将大幅贬值，川宝和鲍师傅的分歧以及关于美联储 ...