沪银短期高波动震荡，中期逢低做多，不追高。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2月24日沪银主力合约高开高走，收盘涨幅超12.84%， 主因是春节期间外盘受中东地缘冲突与美联储降息预期推动大涨，国内市场节后集中补涨，资金涌入、成交 量显著放大 。 金信期货日刊 短期来看，沪银将跟随伦敦银在70-100美元/盎司区间宽幅震荡，对应国内价格核心支撑在19000元/千克， 强压力区25000元/千克。 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 沪银期货合约价格上涨，后续怎么看？ GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 不盲目追高，需警惕地缘情绪降温或美元反弹引发的快速回调，操作以短线高抛低吸、轻仓带止损为主。 中期逻辑仍偏多，核心支撑源于白银供需缺口持续存在，光伏、AI服务器等工业需求回暖，以及美联储降息 ...

早上好！先来看重要资讯。 伊朗外长：希望在最短时间内与美国达成公平协议 据央视报道，当地时间24日晚，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，在上一轮谈判达成的共识基础上，伊朗将在日 内瓦与美国恢复谈判，决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。 阿拉格齐说，伊朗的基本立场和信念非常明确：在任何情况下都不会寻求发展核武器，同时伊朗人民也 绝不放弃和平利用核技术的权利。 据伊朗国家电视台24日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队地面部队在该国南部沿海地区举行军事演习。 报道称，本次演习旨在"针对现有威胁演练最新战术，维护南部沿海地区和岛屿安全"。 美军向以色列南部部署11架F-22战斗机 据新华社援引以色列公共广播公司24日报道，12架美军F-22"猛禽"隐形战斗机当天从英国起飞，除一架 因技术故障返回基地外，其余11架在晚些时候飞抵以色列南部一空军基地。 该报道说，此类战斗机可执行包括渗透敌方领空、摧毁防空系统和雷达等多项任务。美国这一举动可能 是为以色列应对伊朗导弹袭击做准备。 当地时间24日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称，对伊朗问题，特朗普的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要 时也愿意使用致命武力，"最终的决定权始终在特朗普手中"。 报道说，以 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 伊朗外长：希望在最短时间内与美国达成公平协议 阿拉格齐说，伊朗的基本立场和信念非常明确：在任何情况下都不会寻求发展核武器，同时伊朗人民也 绝不放弃和平利用核技术的权利。 据伊朗国家电视台24日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队地面部队在该国南部沿海地区举行军事演习。 报道称，本次演习旨在"针对现有威胁演练最新战术，维护南部沿海地区和岛屿安全"。 美军向以色列南部部署11架F-22战斗机 据新华社援引以色列公共广播公司24日报道，12架美军F-22"猛禽"隐形战斗机当天从英国起飞，除一架 因技术故障返回基地外，其余11架在晚些时候飞抵以色列南部一空军基地。 该报道说，此类战斗机可执行包括渗透敌方领空、摧毁防空系统和雷达等多项任务。美国这一举动可能 是为以色列应对伊朗导弹袭击做准备。 当地时间24日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称，对伊朗问题，特朗普的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要 时也愿意使用致命武力，"最终的决定权始终在特朗普手中"。 以媒称以色列"正多层面完善备战" 据新华社援引以色列第12频道电视台报道，以色列方面 ...

能源隐忧初现，产业打击隐伏 俄乌冲突刚爆发那会儿，欧洲那边就乱套了。天然气管道供应中断，价格一下子上蹿下跳，荷兰期货市 场在2022年8月最高冲到每兆瓦时339欧元，比之前贵了好几倍。德国工厂用电贵得离谱，每千瓦时0.5 欧元，差不多是我们这边的七到八倍。 钢铁、铝和化肥这些行业成本直线上升，德国钢铁每吨比我们高出188美元，电解铝多出5110美元，合 成氨也贵了3280美元。不少企业扛不住了，关门的关门，搬走的搬走，几千家工厂转移到能源便宜的地 方去，美国和中国成了热门选择。 欧洲工业大国像德国、法国、意大利，损失惨重，直接经济损失超1500亿欧元，间接的得有万亿级别。 港口外头，集装箱堆得老高，设备拉走运往海外。郊区车间里头，机器停摆，灰尘到处飞。 美国加入"午夜锤击"，炸福尔多地下，地面震动。冲突12天，伊朗导弹落卡塔尔美军基地，尘埃中士兵 撤。停火后红海不稳，船长扫描海面，警惕无人机。 油价波动，升级时近91美元。要全面爆发，伊朗出口减200万桶/日，价飙108美元。我们从中东进口石 油八成，红海主道。 油轮队海军护航，雷达锁定目标，直升机监视。一旦封锁，供应断，炼油厂原料缺，管道空转，工人等 补给。 ...

地缘冲突预期推升油价，节后PX、TA有上涨动能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 库存端对PTA价格提供一定支撑，PTA工厂库存可能处于低位，基差正值暗 示库存消化良好，供需紧平衡状态可能抑制下行空间；PX库存虽未直接提 及，但供应增加预期可能推升库存水平，加剧价格回调压力。整体看，低 库存环境可能为PTA价格提供韧性，而PX库存累积风险则需警惕。 2. 聚酯 02月13日，短纤主力合约收6628.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.09%。华东 市场现货价为6590.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为-38.0元/吨。 1. PTA&PX 02月13日，PX 主力合约收7236.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.04%，基差 为-87.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收5204.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.31%， 基差为16.0元/吨。 成本端，02月13日，布油主力合约收盘67.55美元/桶。WTI收62.91美元/ 桶。 供给端： 原油价格上行在 ...

（原标题：A股午评：三大指数均涨超1%，超4200股上涨！油气、黄金及化工板块领涨） A股马年首个交易日迎来开门红！三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨1.17%报4129.78点，深证成指涨1.82%， 创业板指涨1.76%。沪深京三市半日成交额15210亿元，较上日放量3074亿元，全市场超4200只个股上 涨。盘面上，地缘冲突、美国关税政策不确定性再度引发市场担忧，油气、黄金、有色金属、化工板块 涨幅居前，影视院线股集体调整。(格隆汇) ...

石油ETF富国（159148）跟踪国证石油天然气指数，聚焦于A股市场中与石油、天然气全产业链相关的 上市公司，覆盖勘探开发、设备服务、燃气输配及综合性能源运营等核心环节；标普油气ETF （513350）则聚焦美股油气勘探和生产领域的个股。 今日盘间，周期板块延续强势，基本金属、化工原料等行业涨势不俗，助推相关ETF走高。截至发稿， 富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）涨超7.4%，石油ETF富国（159148）、有色ETF富国 （159168）、化工50ETF（516120）分别上涨5.70%、3.08%、2.54%。 消息面上，A股春节休市期间，美伊紧张局势加剧，市场对原油供应中断的担忧升温，同时地缘风险也 推高了有色及化工品的价格。 研究机构表示，在地缘冲突仍存在不确定性的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长期主 义视角下，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济修复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产能出 清利好龙头企业。 对相关板块感兴趣的投资者，可以关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）、石油ETF富国 （159148）、有色ETF富国（159168）、化工50ETF（51 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is complex and volatile, with expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics and Trends - The core characteristics of the current market include significant price volatility for certain commodities and a notable premium for safe assets, with continued sector differentiation [2] - The pricing mechanism in the commodity market is undergoing fundamental changes, with a shift from global economic recovery to asset allocation driven by geopolitical conflicts [3] - The demand for strategic metals is being re-evaluated due to the weakening of the dollar's credit, the AI revolution increasing demand for new materials, and countries competing for strategic resources [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, with a forecasted range of 6.8 to 7 against the USD for 2026 [4] - The core support for RMB appreciation comes from a changing global asset allocation logic and a significant trade surplus, which exceeded 1 trillion USD in 2025 [4] - Potential negative factors for the RMB exchange rate include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic export performance [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies - The pricing power of commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macro narratives, focusing on de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [5] - Both industry clients and ordinary traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term (within a week), the short - term view of coking coal 2605 is "oscillation", the short - term view of coke 2605 is also "oscillation"; for the medium - term (two weeks to one month), both coking coal 2605 and coke 2605 are in "oscillation"; for the intraday, coking coal 2605 is "strong", and coke 2605 is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view for both coking coal and coke is "oscillation" [1] - It is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival, and the coke main contract will also maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Price and Change: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1,230 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50% [5] - Supply and Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines stop production for holidays, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises' coal inventories have been replenished to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the Spring Festival. The long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - Market Outlook: In the context of a lack of long - term driving factors, it is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5] - Potential Positive Factors: Uncertainties in the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; possible new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [5] 3.2 Coke - Price and Change: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Supply and Demand: There has been no significant change in the coke fundamentals recently. Both supply and demand have increased slightly at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6] - Market Outlook: It is expected that the coke main contract will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties: "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]