Report Industry Investment Rating No indication of the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report presents the market performance of various futures and spot commodities on August 7, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity [1][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 7, A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.16% at 3639.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18% at 11157.94 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% at 2342.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation, closing at 4114.67, up 1.18 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's fifth - round price increase was implemented on Monday. Driven by the rapid rise in coal prices at the cost end, coke followed the upward trend, and the coking profit returned to the break - even point. Due to the upcoming military parade, production restrictions are expected, with potential supply and demand reduction in the second half of the month. It is expected that the first - round price cut will start in mid - to late August [5]. - For coking coal, the prices of some varieties increased. The supply side saw a slight decline in mine开工 rate due to stricter safety inspections, and the demand side was relatively healthy. The basis was - 215.5, down 31 [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by Brazil's weak export data in July, the US sugar market declined slightly on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was under pressure from short - sellers on Thursday. As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area increased compared to the same period last year, and Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of potential floods from August 10 - 12, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to rise slightly on Thursday. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to July increased by 20.8% [6]. Palm Oil - On August 7, palm oil prices oscillated within the previous day's range. The import cost of palm oil in China decreased, and the price inversion range narrowed. There were no new purchases in the domestic market last week [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined on August 7. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected. Domestically, on August 7, soybean meal futures oscillated. There was sufficient soybean supply, but concerns about future supply shortages remained. The price will continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to US weather and import conditions [8]. Live Pigs - On August 7, live pig futures rose. The current consumption demand is weak, but short - term support comes from reduced slaughter and some secondary fattening demand. In the medium term, the market is still in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and attention should be paid to policy and slaughter conditions [9]. Shanghai Copper - Due to weak economic data and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, and the US dollar index was weak. Coupled with a warm domestic industrial product atmosphere, Shanghai copper temporarily stabilized. In early August, it may still face pressure, but the downside space is limited [9]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13665 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and China's textile and clothing exports in July decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. Logs - The futures price of logs showed a certain trend, and the spot price was stable. The futures price was driven up by the increase in the external market price. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [11]. Steel - On August 7, steel futures prices were at certain levels. The cost of coking coal still strongly supported steel prices, but weak demand restricted the upward space. In the short term, steel prices may oscillate strongly with frequent ups and downs [11]. Alumina - On August 7, alumina futures closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable, but the market was inactive. The inventory was accumulating, and the price faced upward pressure [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 7, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20750 yuan/ton. In the short term, it was under pressure, but with the expectation of a macro - level relaxation, it has the potential to rebound after the off - season. Attention should be paid to inventory and consumption trends in August [12].

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a mixed economic environment influenced by various commodity prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by rising food prices and platinum [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was driven by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month decrease, while international oil prices provided some support to PPI, contributing positively from oil and copper prices [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - In contrast, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies that have bolstered domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and household items [3][27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI Performance - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8%, while rental prices showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% [4][30][61]. - The overall demand for services has remained stable, but the rental component, which is a significant part of the service CPI, has not performed as well compared to previous years [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year, with PPI expected to underperform CPI [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices, while low capacity utilization in downstream sectors will continue to suppress PPI recovery [4][35][70].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In June, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) ended a four-month decline, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with food price declines slightly narrowing and service prices rising by 0.5% [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high [1][4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The national Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [5][11] - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal price decreases in certain raw materials, with significant drops in prices for black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products [6][7] - The overall PPI for the first half of the year decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and weak consumer demand [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The outlook for PPI improvement in the second half of the year remains limited, with an estimated annual decline of around 2.3%, which is better than the first half's decline of 2.8% [8][9] - Domestic demand continues to be weak, with low levels of real estate and infrastructure investment, which are insufficient to drive up related resource prices [8][9] - The overall manufacturing capacity utilization rate is low, leading to a phase of oversupply in certain industries [8]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating mixed performance in commodity, core goods, and service prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, driven by extreme weather affecting food supply [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by sufficient supply in steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop, while rising international oil prices provided some support to PPI [2][9][69]. - CPI's increase was supported by a 12.6% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing to a 0.8 percentage point increase in the CPI for other goods and services [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Goods Price Trends - Core goods PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The pressure on prices in high-export industries, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, continues, with respective declines of 0.4% and 0.2% [3][21][70]. - Conversely, core goods CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [3][21][70]. Group 3: Service Price Dynamics - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [4][30][61]. - The virtual rent CPI, which is a significant component of service CPI, showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [4][30][61]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of rent prices, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil supply, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [4][35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, particularly in private enterprises, is expected to hinder PPI recovery, with projections indicating continued weakness in PPI compared to CPI [4][35][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and market trends, highlighting the performance of different sectors and commodities, which can inform investment decisions. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises was 2.159 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.25% [3] - Price changes included rebar up by 0.65%, cement price index down by 1.17%, and coke down by 4.27% [3] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained stable, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -921 yuan/ton [4] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [5] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel down by 0.54% and copper up by 2.36% [5] Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached 20,940 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, with estimated profit at 3,500 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [6] - The price of graphite electrodes remained unchanged at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 5.56% [6] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.23, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 190 yuan/ton, down by 20.83% from the previous week [7] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders were at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [8] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was 1,369.34 points, up by 2.00% [8] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +6.53% [9] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the overall market was 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including consumer spending, external demand, and real estate sales. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Durable goods consumption shows an upward trend, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May [1] - External demand is improving, as indicated by the Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaging around 51.1% in June, up from 50.9% in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK [2] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.3% in the week of June 22, compared to an average of 3.2% over the past three weeks and 4.93% in May [3] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly declined to 7.63% as of June 22, down from 7.94% on June 15 [2] - Service consumption metrics, such as subway ridership and flight numbers, are close to last year's levels, with subway ridership averaging 77.42 million daily in 27 cities, a 0.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Real estate sales are declining, with residential sales in 67 cities showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued have reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8% [3] - Interest rates have increased, with DR001 at 1.3683%, DR007 at 1.6968%, and R007 at 1.9201% as of June 27, showing mixed changes compared to June 20 [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has fallen over 10% this year, leading to significant increases in precious metal prices and a shift in global central bank reserves towards gold [1][2] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the future of the dollar, with some institutions predicting further depreciation due to monetary policy misalignment and external circulation issues, while others believe the fastest decline may be over and caution against potential rebounds [1][2] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases exceeding 20% this year, with platinum prices rising over 50%, indicating a reallocation of global funds [2][3] Group 2 - The decline of the dollar is attributed to three main factors: relative economic advantages, monetary policy misalignment, and increasing credit risk associated with the dollar [2] - A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) indicates that the dollar's popularity among central banks has dropped, with 70% of respondents citing US political conditions as a barrier to dollar investment, leading to a record increase in gold holdings [3] - UBS suggests that ongoing uncertainty in US policies may weaken the appeal of the "American exceptionalism," recommending investors diversify into other currencies to mitigate excessive dollar exposure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Vale is on the path to becoming the largest mining company globally [1] - The nickel market is facing an oversupply issue, yet the nickel business still holds strategic value [1] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting global GDP and commodity prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend today. Despite a slight price increase, the decrease in trading volume and open interest, along with the outflow of funds, indicate that market trading is becoming lighter and short - selling power is strengthening. It is expected that the Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend on June 25, 2025. The opening price was 263,200 yuan/ton, the highest was 263,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 261,900 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 263,800 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 262,150 yuan/ton. The contract price tried to rise in the afternoon but failed to break through the resistance level of 264,000 yuan/ton and then gradually declined. The trading volume was 54,700 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day, indicating a slight decline in market trading activity. The open interest at the close was 13,100 lots [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract (snm) was 263,000 yuan, with a decrease of 190 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07%. Other contracts such as the Shanghai Tin weighted (sni), Shanghai Tin 2512 (sn2512), etc., also had different price changes [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Macroeconomic Policy** - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran came into effect, reducing market risk - aversion sentiment and improving risk preference, which provided some support for commodity prices including tin [8]. - **2.2 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Supply Side**: Tin ore supply in production areas such as Yunnan is tightening. Some smelting enterprises are considering shutdown for maintenance or slight production cuts in June. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and the transportation of tin mines from southern Myanmar through Thailand is blocked. It is expected that the domestic tin ore imports in June will decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons, and the short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore is obvious, which supports the tin price [9]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal enterprises have entered the seasonal off - season. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the photovoltaic production schedule in June is declining month - on - month. As the tin price rebounds to around 260,000 yuan/ton, the downstream purchasing willingness has significantly weakened, generally adopting a "small - batch, multi - batch" purchasing strategy, which restrains the rise of tin price [10].