Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the strong crude oil drives the rubber to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material situation in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [1] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 13,950 yuan/ton; the whole milk basis increased by 162.50%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.72%; the cup rubber price decreased by 0.52%; the glue price remained unchanged; the natural rubber prices in Xishuangbanna and Hainan were mostly stable, with the glue price in Xishuangbanna increasing by 0.76% [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.18%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.73% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, the domestic tire production in May decreased slightly, the tire export increased by 7.72%, the natural rubber import in April decreased by 11.93%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in May decreased by 11.59%. The production cost and production profit of Thai dry glue changed [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.67%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE decreased by 7.51%, the dry glue warehouse entry and exit rates in Qingdao changed [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating strongly. Although it is supported by the demand for restocking and the strong coking coal futures, the current fundamentals have not improved significantly. The increase in production may lead to inventory pressure and suppress the price. The current situation does not mean a bottom - rebound [3] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [3] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 2.29%, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 2.60%, the production in Yunnan decreased by 25.43%, the production in Sichuan increased by 109.47%, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased. The production of 97 - silicon decreased, and the production of recycled silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased slightly. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The industrial silicon export in April decreased by 8.03% [3] - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, the social inventory decreased by 2.27%, and the contract inventory and non - warehouse inventory decreased [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The polysilicon price continues to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of increased supply and weakening demand. Although it supports the price of industrial silicon, the polysilicon fundamentals have not improved. The short positions can be held cautiously [5] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained unchanged, and the basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract price decreased by 3.12%, and the monthly spreads of different contracts changed [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.53%, and the polycrystalline silicon production increased by 2.94%. In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%, the silicon wafer production decreased by 0.50%, and the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10%. In April, the polysilicon import decreased by 72.71%, the export increased by 66.17%, the silicon wafer import decreased by 15.29%, and the export decreased by 12.97% [5] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 4.73%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.10% [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View** - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash futures stabilized with the market sentiment last week, the supply - demand pattern is still in obvious excess. There will be a further profit - reduction process. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and the inventory may increase after the end of maintenance. The short positions can be held [6] - **Glass**: The spot market improved last week, but the future pressure still exists. Entering the summer rainy season, the demand will slow down again. The glass industry needs capacity clearance, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050, with long - term pressure [6] - **Summary by Directory** - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 spread decreased by 18.18% [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 2.00%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 spread increased by 1.05% [6] - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 4.76% [6] - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [6] - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [6]

Group 1 - The core concept of stock index futures and options is that they are essential derivative tools for equity markets, complementing each other to form a complete risk management system [3][4] - Stock index futures allow investors to short the market and provide a hedging tool, with a T+0 trading system enabling same-day buy and sell transactions [4][5] - Stock index options grant investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock index at a predetermined price, offering lower risk and higher potential returns compared to stock options [5][8] Group 2 - "IPO plus stock index futures options" is not a standard financial term but can be understood as the relationship between IPOs and stock index futures options, where IPOs are crucial for companies transitioning to public status [7][9] - Stock index futures are typically cash-settled, while stock index options can be settled either in cash or through physical delivery, depending on the contract design [8] - Both IPOs and stock index futures options can influence market sentiment and pricing, with stock index futures options providing risk management tools for companies post-IPO [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week of June 13, 2025, the top - rising commodities were concentrated in energy products, while the top - falling ones were in non - ferrous metals and the building materials chain. The style rotation showed multiple configurations in Nanhua industrial products in the industrial products/agricultural products and precious metals/industrial products styles, and long on oil in the gold/oil ratio. The strength order of commodity sectors was estimated as energy > precious metals > chemicals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > ferrous metals [1][2]. - Overseas, at the beginning of the week, the market continued to price the easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the Middle - East geopolitical conflict flared up again. Domestically, the inflation and financial data in May were below expectations, with weak imports and strong exports [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Commodity Market Performance - As of June 13, 2025, the top - rising domestic commodities were INE crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., while the top - falling ones were soda ash, urea, zinc, etc. [6] 3.2 Sector Style Rotation - The 10 - year US Treasury yield, as a global interest - rate anchor, has a significant guiding effect on asset valuation and style rotation. For equity index styles, its real yield is consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the growth index to the cyclical index. For commodity sector index styles, it is also consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the Nanhua precious metals index to the Nanhua industrial products index [8][13]. - During the week, the cycle/growth style rotated to under - allocate growth; the industrial products/agricultural products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; the precious metals/industrial products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; and the gold/oil ratio rotated to over - allocate oil [2][13]. 3.3 Performance of Arbitrage Spread Pairs - The three arbitrage pairs with the relatively strongest performance during the week were the spread of the PP - 3*MA main contract, the spread of the L - PP main contract, and the spread of the rapeseed oil - palm oil main contract. The three with the relatively weakest performance were the copper - oil main contract ratio, the P/SC main contract ratio, and the Y/SC main contract ratio [2][14]. - Data on the latest values, weekly changes, one - year valuations, and two - year valuations of various arbitrage pairs are provided in the report [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall balance sheet of new US soybean crops has tightened, especially under the influence of biodiesel policy adjustments, making the overall supply - demand situation more tense. South American supply is generally loose, with potential export pressure in Brazil and stable high - yield in Argentina. In China, soybean arrivals are increasing while demand is good, but there is still some pressure [4]. - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, hitting a four - year low. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand, combined with the short - term weakness of raw sugar, has led to higher import profits, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [9]. - Last Friday night, the EPA's proposed RVO exceeded expectations, causing the US soybean oil to hit the daily limit. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, Brent crude oil also opened higher. Oils and fats are expected to run strongly in the short term, following crude oil and US biodiesel. Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is not overly loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, with a pattern of oversupply, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil market is still strong [17]. - US corn sowing is accelerating, and the weather is favorable, so the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is relatively scarce, with rising prices in the Northeast and stable port prices. It is rumored that imported corn will be auctioned. The spot price of corn in North China is strong, and the wheat price continues to rise. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened, and the corn spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Corn spot is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - After the continuous decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm has slowed down. However, due to the increasing monthly slaughter of large - scale enterprises and the high inventory of ordinary farmers and secondary fattening, the overall supply pressure is still relatively high [30]. - Peanut spot trading is still scarce. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined and are currently stable at around 4.6 yuan per catty. Imports have decreased significantly, and the price of imported peanuts is also falling. Peanut oil mills' purchase prices are relatively stable, but downstream consumption remains weak. Peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are stable. Oil mills are profitable, but the purchase volume of large - scale oil mills is small. The peanut market for oil is weak. The market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, and peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with potential for further decline [34]. - After May, with the arrival of the rainy season, egg consumption has entered the off - season, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. For futures, considering the current price level, the downward space is limited. For far - month contracts, as egg prices weaken, the willingness to cull laying hens has increased. If the culling volume continues to rise in the future, which may improve the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the upward space may be limited if the supply side is not significantly improved [43]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi. The futures price of apples in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by two factors. On the macro level, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries makes the cotton trend highly uncertain. On the fundamental level, the national commercial cotton inventory is currently at a low level. If the inventory - reduction speed remains the same in the future, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new - flower listing, and cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market Situation**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.69% to 1062.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 298.6 US dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: US May soybean crushing is expected to reach a record high for the same period, with an average estimate of 193.519 million bushels. Brazil's soybean exports from March to May increased by 3.3 million tons to 44 million tons. CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week but decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new US soybean balance sheet has tightened, while South American supply is loose. In China, there is still some pressure despite increasing arrivals and good demand [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term short - selling operations for single - side trading; M11 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage; selling call options for options trading [5]. Sugar - **External Market Situation**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.16 (0.96%) to 16.54 cents per pound [6]. - **Important Information**: Sugar prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants have decreased. As of Friday, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 707 week - on - week, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged. China's sugar imports in May are expected to be about 400,000 tons, much higher than 20,000 tons in the same period last year. The sales - to - production ratio of domestic sugar in the 24/25 season as of the end of May exceeded 70% [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Raw sugar has been affected by the expected increase in global supply, while in China, the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a short position with partial profit - taking and partial holding; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market Situation**: The price of CBOT US soybean oil changed by 6.48% to 50.61 cents per pound, and the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 2.27% to 3927 ringgit per ton [14]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 increased by 26.3% compared to the same period last month. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and about 18% of US corn planting areas were affected [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The EPA's proposal and geopolitical factors have led to a strong short - term trend in oils and fats. India's tax reduction on crude palm oil may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil market has an oversupply pattern but strong bottom support [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, oils and fats are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may fall back after the event and sentiment fade; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the main contract rebounding 0.2% to 444.5 cents per bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: In the US corn - producing states, 94.44% of the areas are likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures and 61% are likely to have higher - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. The wheat market price is rising. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas and 18% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought. The expected corn planting area in the US 2025/2026 is 95.3 million acres, unchanged from May. The purchase price in the northern port is stable, and the corn price in the North China production area is strong [23][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn sowing is accelerating, and the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is scarce, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the outer - market 07 corn is oscillating at the bottom, and take a wait - and - see approach for the 07 contract; for arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on corn and starch spreads, buy the 09 starch contract and short the 09 corn contract when the spread is low, and hold the position of buying corn and shorting the 07 corn contract; for options, consider a strategy of selling options at high prices for those with spot inventory [27][28]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices are rebounding in most regions. As of June 13, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets remained unchanged, while the price of 50 - kg sows decreased by 3 yuan per head. On June 13, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.14 points, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high due to the increasing slaughter of large - scale enterprises and high inventory [30]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spreads; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is small, and the price of peanut oil is strong with some negotiation space. Peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 5280 tons week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory decreased by 170 tons week - on - week [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is scarce, imports are decreasing, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, so peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short peanuts at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [35][36][37]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.22 yuan per catty compared to last Friday, and the price in the main sales areas decreased by 0.18 yuan per catty. The national mainstream egg price is mostly stable. In May, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year. The egg - chick hatching volume in May decreased by 4% month - on - month and increased by 1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the average slaughter age decreased by 3 days. As of June 12, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The average inventory in the production and circulation links increased, and the egg - farming profit decreased [40][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: Egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price is expected to be weak. For futures, the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of laying hens increases, the August and September contracts may rise, but the upward space may be limited [43]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [44]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 1.2746 million tons, a decrease of 107,400 tons week - on - week, and the sales speed slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The downstream demand for apples is weak, and the impact of seasonal fruits is significant. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage. The price of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more transactions in high - cost - performance products [45][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the price of early - maturing apples. The futures price in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.37 (0.55%) to 67.90 cents per pound [52]. - **Important Information**: Cotton spot trading is cold, and the purchase intention of spinning mills is weak. The sales basis is firm. As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures sellers decreased by 1511. From June 1 to 11, the rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas was lower than normal. The southwest monsoon resumed on Thursday [53][54][57]. - **Trading Logic**: The uncertainty of trade policies affects the cotton trend, and the low commercial inventory may lead to tight supply before the new - flower listing, so cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [59][60].

21世纪经济报道记者季伟 北京报道 10个交易日，超70亿元的新增规模，644%的规模增幅…… 这是7只上市信创ETF，在海光信息与中科曙光（603019）重组停牌期间创造的规模增长神话。 5月25日（当晚海光信息与中科曙光发布重组停牌公告）收盘，7只上市信创ETF规模合计为11.14亿元， 6月9日（海光信息与中科曙光复牌前一日）收盘，7只上市信创ETF规模合计达到了82.85亿元。 巨量规模为何而来？ 一轮围绕着此次重组展开的金融产品事件营销悄然浮出水面，且事件营销隐现的利益链条渐次清晰，最 终买单的或仅是溢价买入却被套牢的投资人。 比如，一些基金公司的信创ETF营销海报中将海光信息与中科曙光在指数中的权重比例进行突出，强调 可以借道ETF全面布局相关个股。 基金公司借布局个股营销ETF无可厚非，但这其中的问题是，成分股的权重比例是根据市场行情波动调 整的，而在营销发酵资金大规模涌入的背景下，基金对成分股的持仓比例也会受到相应影响出现明显稀 释，该数据短时间可能变化巨大。虽然基金公司对所展示的权重比例截止日期作出补充提示，但仍需对 海报上被强化的成分股权重比例信息可能存在的误导而负责。 本报掌握的信息显示 ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 01 924后的 " 分手 " 上半年的股市可谓有惊无险 ， 赚钱机会多多 ， 但隔壁的商品市场就是完全两样的风景 ， 大部 分工业品都是 " 一路南下派 " ， 几乎被空头力量主导 ， 偶尔借停产检修或宏观利好反弹一把 ， 也成为 " 每涨卖机 " 。 国内上市的67个商品期货品种中 ， 主力合约价格年初以来下跌的有39个 ， 看上去没有那么惨 ？ 你再看上涨的28个品种中 ， 几乎都是金银和农产品 ， 工业品只有铜 、 铝 、 锡三个国际定 价的有色品种和尿素这个严格出口管制的农化产品 。 像焦煤 、 玻璃 、 甲醇 、 塑料 、 橡胶 、 纯碱 、 螺纹钢这一类重要的大宗商品 ， 都是跌幅巨大 。 上半年这一轮工业品的下跌 ， 实际上是在延续21年以来的商品熊市 ： 焦煤主力合约上半年跌了34% ， 从21年最高点跌了80% ； 玻璃主力合约上半年跌了25% ， 从21年最高点跌了68 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang has sparked significant interest in the capital market, particularly leading to a surge in trading activity in related Xinchuang-themed ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Announcement and Market Reaction - The strategic restructuring plan between Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information was announced on May 25, with their stocks suspended from trading starting May 26, marking a significant event as the first absorption merger transaction between listed companies under new regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - The suspension of these stocks has led investors to seek alternative investment opportunities, particularly in Xinchuang-themed ETFs, which include both companies among their top holdings, accounting for over 10% of the total weight in the indices they track [2]. Group 2: ETF Performance and Fund Inflows - As of June 3, the total scale of seven Xinchuang-themed ETFs reached 2.544 billion yuan, a more than 110% increase from 1.188 billion yuan on May 23, with a net inflow of 1.338 billion yuan since the suspension of the individual stocks [2]. - Several ETFs experienced significant growth in scale, with the Guotai Xinchuang ETF increasing from 124 million yuan to 578 million yuan (over 360% growth), and the Fuguo Xinchuang ETF more than doubling from 58 million yuan to 247 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Fund Company Responses - In response to the influx of funds and the inability to adjust holdings due to stock suspensions, several fund managers, including Fuguo Fund and Guotai Fund, issued risk warnings and implemented purchase restrictions to protect existing investors from potential dilution of their interests [5]. - The actions taken by fund companies reflect concerns over tracking errors and deviations due to the rapid inflow of capital into ETFs, highlighting the speculative nature of this investment strategy amid the ongoing merger developments [5].

我觉得这些新消费里面，应该会有一些公司可以长期跑出来，比如泡泡玛特如果还能继续搞出下一个labubu，那还会继续牛，继续有100%以上的增长。 但其他一些业绩不好的新消费股也炒到这么高估值，很明显是不合理的。就是蹭着新消费，对标泡泡玛特说IP经济的概念故事割韭菜。 但这对我们组合配置的消费基金影响不大，因为恒生消费指数目前的PE估值也才18倍左右，而2021年A股的中证消费指数PE估值是55倍PE。所以，目前 消费股炒作也只局限于部分新消费股，持有指数ETF的话不用过分担心，我们持有的大部分消费股的估值依然便宜而且股东分红回报率不低。 数据来源：Wind 2、部分老读者朋友知道，我们小丸子也是在2021年接近行情顶部的时候买房。不过幸运的是，她当初没有听她家里人的意见去郊区买"远大新"，而是选 择了在中山大学附近买了套"老破小"。由于周边有多所学校的教师人群住房需求支撑，所以她那里租售比不低。再加上加装了电梯，电梯带来的升值抵消 了部分房价下行，估计整体就跌10%左右。 每次跟小丸子聊起，她都觉得当初买老破小是很明智的选择。相比之下，她的表姐在2020年买了郊区的增城碧桂园云顶。我查了下，好家伙，这是广 州" ...

Market Overview - The consensus is that A-shares are not overvalued, and there is limited downside for major indices in the short term [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a gap fill at 3316 points [1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed A-shares with a net inflow of nearly 12 billion from southbound funds [3] - Several new consumer stocks, including Mixue, Pop Mart, and Maogeping, have reached new highs [3] Valuation Metrics - Valuations for key consumer stocks are notably high, with Old Puhuang at 90x PE, Mixue at 46x, Pop Mart at 93x, and Maogeping at 58x [5] - These stocks are becoming keywords for new consumer assets, reminiscent of core assets in 2021 [6] Market Trends - There is a trend of A-shares listing in Hong Kong, with companies like CATL and Heng Rui leading the way [6] - The overall market volatility is expected to remain consistent, with a possibility of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks moving in tandem [6] Investment Strategies - The Heng Seng Consumer ETF (159699) and Hong Kong High Dividend ETF (159302) have grid yields around 10% [6] - The grid trading strategy has shown positive returns, with the Heng Seng Consumer ETF yielding +9.15% and the High Dividend ETF yielding +10.99% [7] Defense Spending Insights - The U.S. defense budget is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2026, marking a 12% increase from the previous year [11] - Global defense spending is on the rise, with countries like Germany and Japan significantly increasing their budgets [9] Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding military spending reductions are unfounded, as the trend is towards increased military budgets [10] - The current stock-bond yield spread is at 6.33%, indicating a higher relative value for stocks compared to historical averages [18]