每周思考总第633期 《A股短期决定变量转为 海外地缘冲突 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至6 月15日累计收益3.97%。 主板择时观点： 国内外基本面延续走弱符合康波萧条期基本面特征，伊以冲突升级也在康波萧条期 基本预判内，唯独国内机构资金不惧利空继续流入的状态超预期，密切关注上述多空合力，短期遵循 客观模型信号维持低仓位回避不变； 中小市值板块择时观点： 板块于5月中旬开启相对主板的补涨行情，也是本轮机构资金流入的直接受 益者，但本次中东地缘冲突下同步走弱，建议参照主板节奏同样维持 低仓位 回避不变，风格维持主 板占优； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：石油石化。 基本面上，中美经济数据均不理想。 国内方面， 上周中国官方陆续披露了进出口、物价、银行 货币供应等5月经济运行数据，整体均延续走弱 ，其中出口再度走弱大幅低于市场预期，尤其是对美 出口同比跌幅继续加大与此前市场消息面感受出入最大，但符合我们长波周期下的基本预判，国内物 价方面也延续了双降格局，凸显消费疲弱趋势仍在延续中，银行货币方方面看似M1同比回升但主要 源于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market dynamics are influenced by overseas geopolitical conflicts, with a notable shift in investment sentiment observed in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25%, and the CSI 500 index down by 0.38% [3]. - Despite a brief period of stock and bond gains in the domestic market, the escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts led to a reversal in market performance [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Both China and the U.S. reported disappointing economic data, with China's exports significantly underperforming expectations, particularly in exports to the U.S., which saw a year-on-year decline [4]. - Domestic price levels continued to show a downward trend, indicating persistent consumer weakness, while the banking sector's monetary supply data suggested a marginal weakening despite a year-on-year increase in M1 due to a low base effect [4]. - In the U.S., the unexpected increase in the fiscal deficit raised concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies, and the labor market showed signs of weakening, reinforcing a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Institutional funds continued to increase their positions, which contrasts with the overall weakening of the index, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and fundamental data [5]. - The A-share market attempted to replicate the dual bull market of 2014, but current indicators do not confirm this trend, with the recent geopolitical events acting as a critical test for market resilience [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, reflecting the ongoing weak economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, a similar low position strategy is advised, as these sectors have also shown weakness in response to the geopolitical situation [5]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical industries as potential areas of interest [5].

Group 1: Global Economic Kondratieff Cycle - The Kondratieff cycle, proposed by economist Kondratieff, suggests that the global economy oscillates in 50 to 60-year cycles, characterized by phases of recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression [2] - The current global Kondratieff cycle indicates that leading countries are facing technological stagnation, while catching-up countries may leverage latecomer advantages for industrial upgrades [2] Group 2: Metal Commodities Outlook - Metal commodities are expected to perform well as the Kondratieff cycle progresses, with gold representing financial attributes and steel representing commodity attributes [3] - The demand for metals is shifting from investment-driven to consumption-driven, leading to a more stable demand profile, with supply-side factors becoming more significant [4] Group 3: A-Share Market Expectations - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a different trend compared to the past, supported by improving funding factors [5][6] - Key funding factors influencing the A-share market include total monetary environment, household wealth allocation, financial institutions' asset allocation needs, corporate buybacks, and inflows of foreign capital [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the U.S. stock market and global economic conditions, highlighting potential risks and investment strategies for the second half of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Stock Market Risks**: The U.S. stock market is facing a significant risk of a trend decline due to the convergence of three cycles: 42-month, 100-month, and 200-month cycles, which may lead to volatility exceeding levels seen in 2008 and 2000 [1][4][11]. 2. **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell" strategy combining dividend stocks and technology is recommended to navigate the changing economic environment and achieve stable returns [2][7][24]. 3. **Global Economic Indicators**: Key macroeconomic indicators, such as global manufacturing PMI and industrial production indices, indicate a downward trend, suggesting a cooling of economic activity and inflation [9][10]. 4. **Liquidity and Safe-Haven Assets**: In the context of liquidity shocks, gold, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasuries are identified as critical safe-haven assets. The dollar may strengthen, while Treasury yields are expected to decline with economic recession [5][6][19]. 5. **Domestic vs. Overseas Markets**: The domestic market is expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, with a focus on structural investment opportunities in A-shares [2][24][27]. Additional Important Content 1. **Historical Context**: The current situation is compared to past financial crises, indicating that the challenges faced in 2025-2026 are more severe than those in 2000 and 2008, primarily due to issues within the U.S. credit monetary system [12][20]. 2. **Semiconductor Industry Impact**: The semiconductor industry is also experiencing a down cycle, aligning with the overall stock market trends, as evidenced by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [16]. 3. **Future Predictions**: The U.S. stock market is expected to undergo significant trend declines from the second half of 2025 into 2026, with potential for a market bottom around mid-2026 [15][21]. 4. **Challenges for U.S. Economy**: A downturn in the stock market could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of financial markets and the real economy [20]. 5. **A-Shares Valuation**: A-shares are viewed favorably due to low valuations and growth factors, suggesting that they may benefit from a shift in global asset allocation away from U.S. assets [24][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications for investors regarding the U.S. stock market, global economic conditions, and specific investment strategies moving forward.

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the tire industry and its relation to the automotive supply chain, particularly focusing on the impact of recent tariff policies in the United States and their effects on both domestic and international markets [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Tire Industry**: - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was initially high in Q1 2025 but dropped to last year's levels after the implementation of equal tariffs in April and further declined with the introduction of tariffs on auto parts in May [1][2]. - This indicates a sustained negative impact from tariffs on the tire industry [2]. 2. **Consumer Behavior and Inventory Management**: - U.S. consumers showed a cautious approach to spending, with durable goods orders spiking in March but declining to the lowest growth rate of the year by April, reflecting increased uncertainty [1][3][4]. - Companies are advised to focus on inventory management and adjust production and sales strategies in response to changing demand [1]. 3. **U.S. Import Trends**: - In Q1 2025, U.S. imports accounted for nearly 13% of consumer spending, with industrial goods imports increasing by 53% year-over-year, while energy imports remained stable [5][6]. - There was a notable decline in imports of automobiles and parts, attributed to domestic price wars in the automotive sector [6]. 4. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: - The domestic economy entered a low season in May, with declines in asphalt and cement mill operating rates, and a drop in rebar demand [8]. - However, the issuance of government bonds and special bonds may support infrastructure development [8]. 5. **Economic Performance in Q2 2025**: - The overall economic performance has shown seasonal weakness, with a decline in operating rates and low PTA prices [9]. - New home sales have rebounded to last year's levels, but the second-hand housing market remains weak [9]. 6. **Manufacturing PMI Data**: - May's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5, indicating a slight increase but still below the growth threshold, reflecting the impact of tariffs and other uncertainties [12][18]. - The service sector showed resilience, with a business activity expectation index reaching 56.5, indicating strong performance in productive services [19]. 7. **Future Economic Predictions**: - The upcoming months are expected to be challenging due to seasonal factors and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which may continue to impact manufacturing negatively [20]. - There is a need for potential policy measures to support domestic demand and stabilize production growth [20]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the complex interplay between tariff policies, consumer behavior, and inventory management, emphasizing the need for companies to remain agile in their strategies [2][4][10]. - The discussion also touches on the broader economic cycles, indicating that the current tariff uncertainties are beginning to yield to cyclical economic pressures [10][21].

文 | 江 露 来 源 | C F C 金 属 研 究 编 辑 | 杨 兰 审 核 | 浦 电 路 交 易 员 正 文 | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 铝 | 氧化铝 | 锌 | 镇 | 锡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 27. 0% | 9.3% | 4.9% | -1.5% | -35. 6% | -12. 8% | -0.7% | 6.7% | | 碳酸锂 | 工业研 | 多晶硅 | 硅铁/锰硅 | 螺纹钢 | 热卷 | 煤焦 | 铁矿石 | | -15. 2% | -24. 1% | -15. 4% | -12. 4%/- 5.3% | -8.2% | -7.4% | -23.9%/- 19. 4% | -10. 7% | 2.1 宏观展望:康波视角下当前周期判断 ◆ 目前已步入萧条:衰退时点为2009年,萧条转换点在2019年 图表:康波周期的划分 | 康波 | 繁荣 | 裹退 | 萧条 | 复苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一轮(纺织工业和 | 1782~1802 | 181 ...

黄金市场，一直是市场持续关注的焦点。 自5月21日伦敦现货黄金价格重回3300美元大关之后，今日延续高位。截至发稿，现货黄金报3326美元。 | | | 实时金价 | . .. | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 2025-05-23 14:24:33 实时金价 | | | ਵੇ | 商品 | 回购 | 销售 | 高/低 | | 价 | 把金 | 225.9 | 229.9 | 231.5 | | | | | | 224.2 | | | 白银(含税) | 7.53 | 7.75 | 7,78 | | | | | | 7.493 | | | 黄金(T+D) | 775.55 | 775.61 | 776.98 | | E | | | | 767.27 | | 海 黄 | 黄金99.99 | 775,5 | 776.15 | TOTAL IS | | leA> | | | | 768 | | 交易 町 | 黄金99.95 | 774 | 778 | 775 | | | | | | 767.5 | | | 白银(T+D) | 8233 | 8235 | 8 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market Analysis - The report suggests that the current rebound in the US stock market may be forming a large double top, indicating a potential end to the rally [1][19][25] - From a cyclical perspective, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are in a downward phase similar to the period around 2008, suggesting comparable risks [1][19][21] - The valuation perspective shows that as of May 16, 2025, the difference between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the inverse of the S&P 500 P/E ratio has risen to 0.68%, indicating lower investment attractiveness in US equities compared to bonds [1][35][37] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a preference for value styles, with strong performances in financial and consumer sectors [2][10][11] - The report highlights that various ETFs, particularly large-cap and value ETFs, outperformed during the week, while TMT-related sectors have not fully recovered from previous lows [2][10][11] - The analysis of industry indices since early April indicates that sectors like retail, banking, and agriculture have recovered well, while technology sectors still have room for recovery [2][10][11] Group 3: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - The genetic programming industry rotation model has achieved an absolute return of 14.64% this year, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 13.79 percentage points [3][39][40] - The model currently favors sectors such as computers, electronics, machinery, media, and home appliances, while excluding telecommunications [3][39][40] - The model's strategy balances TMT-related growth sectors with traditional industries and consumer-related sectors to maintain a diversified portfolio [3][39][40] Group 4: Absolute Return ETF Simulation - The absolute return ETF simulation portfolio has seen a slight decline of 0.05% last week but has accumulated a total return of 3.70% year-to-date [4][43][44] - The portfolio's asset allocation is based on recent trends, with a balanced focus on resource sectors like steel and non-bank financials, alongside technology sectors [4][43][44] - The current holdings include energy and soybean ETFs, while gold ETFs have been excluded [4][43][44] Group 5: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation simulation currently favors bonds and foreign exchange, with a predicted ranking of future returns showing bonds at the top [47][48] - The simulation has recorded an annualized return of 7.29% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50, although it has faced a decline of 3.64% year-to-date [47][48] - The strategy emphasizes a higher risk budget for assets such as Chinese and US bonds [47][48]