甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/12 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 258 320 25 -2 - 2026/01/0 6 801 2275 2248 2350 - 2345 2450 266 322 22 10 - 2026/01/0 7 801 2285 2250 2350 - 2345 2443 268 322 8 0 - 2026/01/0 8 801 2230 2220 2340 - 2345 2448 264 322 -19 -10 - 2026/01/0 9 801 2250 2235 - - 2345 2430 267 - -20 -10 - 日度变化 0 20 15 - - 0 -18 3 - -1 0 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, Shanghai tin showed a strong high - level volatile trend. On January 9, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 327,000 yuan/ton, with large fluctuations in futures prices and significant changes in basis [16]. - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal in terms of both month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons. The cumulative domestic tin ore output from January to September was 56,500 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The domestic tin ore supply remained stable. The repeated process of mine resumption in Myanmar affected the price range. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [16]. - In November, the demand growth in integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white - goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging fields will maintain resilience, while the demand in some traditional fields will be adjusted. According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national passenger - car manufacturers was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase. The domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new - energy and semiconductor industries has improved; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest - rate cuts in the later period [16]. - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, under the background of mine - end interference, profits will remain at a low level [16]. - LME inventory increased slightly on a weekly basis; SHFE inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis; and social inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis [16]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts. The mine - end situation is unstable, and the futures price remains strong. However, high - price expectations may suppress demand and stimulate supply. The industry association has called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude. In terms of operation, hold long positions with a light position. Those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification and guidance of consumption data [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy - **View**: After - holiday high - level strong volatility in Shanghai tin, with large fluctuations in futures prices and basis. Supply, demand, cost - profit, and inventory show different trends. The domestic economy has resilience, and overseas uncertainties remain high [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions with a light position, reduce heavy positions appropriately. The reference support level is 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton, and long positions can buy put options for protection. Pay attention to macro - measures, mine disturbances, export speed, and consumption data [16]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3. Futures and Spot Markets No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than mentioning the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis figures. 4. Inventory - As of January 8, 2026, SHFE inventory was 6,788 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 7, 2026, LME total inventory was 5,405 tons, increasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 2, 2026, the refined tin social inventory was 9,309 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis [33][37]. 5. Cost and Profit As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 6. Supply - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. The domestic tin ore output in September was 6,263.28 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][53]. 7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile output was 3.519 million, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the output of electronic computers was 29.028 million, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's PVC output was 2.137 million tons, an 8.5% year - on - year increase; in November 2025, the output of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the refrigerator output was 9.442 million, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's washing - machine output was 12.013 million, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the color - TV output was 17.449 million, a 5% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's solar - cell output was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the integrated - circuit output was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [60][65][70][75][79]. 8. Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [83]. 9. Supply - Demand Table The table shows the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of tin from 2018 to 2026E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core View of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell from a high, while the sugar futures price continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The pulp futures price weakened. In the cotton market, both global and domestic supply and demand have decreased, and the short - term price is under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term price may fluctuate upward. In the sugar market, the global sugar market is in a state of surplus, and the domestic sugar price is expected to bottom out through fluctuations. In the pulp market, overseas supply is disrupted, and domestic demand may gradually recover, but the rebound height depends on future demand and inventory digestion [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,740 yuan/ton, a change of - 295 yuan/ton (- 1.96%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, a change of + 164 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,992 yuan/ton, a change of + 208 yuan/ton. In December, Brazil's cotton exports were 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, with China as the main destination [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand data in December was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. In the short term, ICE US cotton is expected to be under pressure, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased as sales accelerated. However, the demand side showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is suggested. In the whole year, the domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be in a relatively balanced state, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks need to be警惕 [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5279 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5230 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton. As of January 7, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugar cane crushing volume decreased by 25.35% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 27.03% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a state of surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the downward space for raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long term, the sugar price should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third consecutive year, and the supply is growing seasonally. The import pressure remains, but the import volume of syrup and premixes may decrease in the future [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. The domestic fundamentals still put downward pressure on the price. Although the current valuation is low, the price may bottom out through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5504 yuan/ton, a change of - 92 yuan/ton (- 1.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5140 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price weakened. Overseas, there have been continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance. In terms of demand, the European port pulp inventory continued to decline in November, and the demand improved. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has shown a downward trend recently, and the increasing paper production capacity in the future may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - A neutral stance is advised. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand, but the rebound height depends on future demand improvement and inventory digestion [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The propylene futures market has good demand and smooth production enterprise shipments, but the futures price declined slightly. The plastic and polypropylene futures markets are stable, with price support from factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand [2]. - The pure benzene futures market has a weakening transaction in Shandong, and the styrene futures market is in a stalemate due to the cost pressure of pure benzene and good downstream demand [3]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as weakening terminal demand, price fluctuations of raw materials, and inventory changes, with different trends for each product [5]. - The methanol market is affected by rumors of MTO device maintenance, and the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range [6]. - The PVC market has weak demand and increasing inventory, while the caustic soda market has large supply pressure and limited rebound height [7]. - The soda ash market is under pressure of oversupply, and the glass market may have opportunities to go long after a callback [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and declined slightly. Demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is maintained [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated. The polyethylene market is strong, and the price center of gravity moves up. The polypropylene price is supported by factors such as tight supply and downstream demand [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures: The main contract declined slightly, and the Shandong market transaction weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and consider positive spreads in the medium - term [3]. - Styrene futures: The main contract is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is good, but the cost of pure benzene suppresses the price [3]. 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices declined, and the processing difference of PTA was moderately repaired. The demand is affected by the weakening terminal [5]. - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into production, and overseas devices are shut down. It is under long - term pressure and may improve in the second quarter [5]. - Short fiber: The inventory is low, but the demand is weak. The price fluctuates with raw materials [5]. - Bottle chip: The demand is weakening, and the price is driven by cost. There is new investment in the short - term and maintenance in the future [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The market declined due to rumors of MTO device maintenance. Future imports are expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [6]. - Urea: The price fluctuated. The production enterprise inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range with the approaching of spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The price was weak. The demand is low, the inventory increased, and the cost support is acceptable. The price center of gravity is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - Caustic soda: The price declined. The supply pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The price declined. It is under pressure of oversupply, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [8]. - Glass: The price fluctuated strongly. The inventory decreased, and there may be opportunities to go long after a callback [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high while demand is sluggish, with costs rising during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8865 - 9095. There are both positive factors like cost support and negative factors such as slow post - holiday demand recovery [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490. There are also positive and negative factors affecting the market [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, indicating persistent weak demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase. Sample enterprise inventory was 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase. Main port inventory was 140,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry - season [3]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling is decreasing but remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the 8865 - 9095 range [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease. The predicted production for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer production shows short - term increases and medium - term potential pull - backs, while battery cell and component production continues to decline. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline [8][9]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the price of N - type dense material was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [11]. - **Expectation**: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: Most contracts showed price increases, with the largest increase of 1.40% in the 12 - month contract [17]. - **Basis**: Most basis values decreased, with the 12 - month contract showing a significant change [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10,799, a 1.05% increase [17]. - **Organosilicon**: DMC production decreased by 6.10%, while D4 price increased by 1.08%. The monthly DMC inventory increased by 21.18% [17]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.85%, and the import profit increased by 67.65% [17]. - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, and sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.48% [17]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Overall production increased slightly, while the operating rate in Sichuan decreased significantly [17]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: Most silicon wafer prices remained unchanged, and the weekly production increased by 5.74%, while the inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - **Futures Closing Price**: Most contracts showed price decreases, with the largest decrease of 2.56% in the 04 contract [19]. - **Basis**: All basis values decreased [19]. - **Battery Cell**: Most battery cell prices remained unchanged, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [19]. - **Component**: Most component prices remained unchanged, and the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, while the export volume increased by 5.54% [19]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and European inventory decreased by 5.44% [19]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, and the consumption decreased by 10.37% [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, and it is expected to move in a sideways pattern in the short term. The glass supply is at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising. It is expected that glass will mainly move in a low - level, sideways, and weakly downward pattern [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1148 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.13%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - panel glass rose from 904 yuan/ton to 924 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.21%. The main basis changed from - 188 yuan/ton to - 224 yuan/ton, a change of 19.15% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - panel in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 924 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit is low, and there is an expectation of further cold - repair in the industry [4]. Fundamentals - Supply Side - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 154,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [22][24]. Fundamentals - Demand Side - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [28][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 56.866 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.00% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have fluctuated. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Low glass production profit leads to an expectation of further cold - repair in the industry [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the deep - processing industry has poor capital recovery, so traders and processors are cautious and mainly consume raw glass inventories [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate between 8,625 - 8,835 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows short - term increase in silicon wafer production and is expected to decline in the medium - term, cell production decreases continuously, module production decreases continuously, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 57,455 - 59,835 [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 306,000 tons; silicone inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 70,200 tons; social inventory is 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase; major port inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang region is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a 1.45% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 231,900 tons, a 6.91% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease. The estimated module output in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, module production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,400 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the price of N - type dense material was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 5,395 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions decreased [9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.97% - 1.65% [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate of some contracts exceeding 100% [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231 [16]. - **Organosilicon**: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease from the previous week; the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%; the daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton; the monthly DMC inventory was 53,200 tons, a 21.18% increase from the previous month [16]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, a 2.90% increase from the previous day; the daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 90 yuan/ton, an 80.35% decrease from the previous day [16]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of most daily silicon wafers remained unchanged; the weekly silicon wafer output was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [18]. - **Cell**: The prices of most daily cells remained unchanged; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease from the previous week; the monthly photovoltaic cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Module**: The prices of most daily modules remained unchanged; the monthly module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month; the domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European module inventory was 31.3GW, a 5.44% decrease from the previous month [18]. 3. Industrial Silicon Downstream Market Organosilicon - **DMC Price and Production**: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate showed a certain fluctuation; the DMC price and cost remained relatively stable; the weekly DMC production showed a downward trend [44]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed a certain degree of stability [46]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The DMC monthly export and import volumes showed certain fluctuations; the DMC inventory showed an upward trend [51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, and aluminum scrap import volume showed certain fluctuations; the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price showed an upward trend; the import ADC12 cost and profit showed certain changes [54]. - **Inventory and Output**: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed certain fluctuations; the weekly opening rates of primary aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend; the aluminum alloy ingot social inventory showed a downward trend [57]. - **Demand**: The monthly output and sales of automobiles showed certain fluctuations; the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed a certain trend [58]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Situation**: The polysilicon industry cost showed a certain trend; the polysilicon price showed a downward trend; the polysilicon total inventory showed an upward trend; the polysilicon monthly output and opening rate showed certain fluctuations; the polysilicon monthly demand showed a downward trend [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The polysilicon supply, import, export, and consumption showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand balance showed a trend of change [67]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The silicon wafer price showed a certain trend; the silicon wafer weekly output and inventory showed certain fluctuations; the silicon wafer monthly demand showed a downward trend; the net export of single - crystal silicon wafers and polysilicon wafers showed certain fluctuations [70]. - **Cell**: The price of single - crystal P/N type cells showed a certain trend; the cell production scheduling and actual output showed certain fluctuations; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories showed a downward trend; the photovoltaic cell opening rate showed a certain trend; the cell export showed an upward trend [73]. - **Photovoltaic Module**: The module price showed a certain trend; the domestic and European photovoltaic module inventories showed a downward trend; the module monthly output showed a downward trend; the module export showed an upward trend [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import and export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, and export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and welding strip import and export volume all showed certain fluctuations [79]. - **Component Composition Cost and Profit**: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit and cost, cell profit and cost, and component profit and cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components all showed certain fluctuations [81]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: The national new power generation installed capacity, power generation structure and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation all showed certain trends [83].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview on January 5, 2026 - A-shares had a good start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 12 - day consecutive rise and reclaiming the 4000 - point mark. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to close at 4023.42, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24% to close at 13828.63, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.85% to close at 3294.55. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2567.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 501.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] 2. Index Performance - The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4717.75, a环比 increase of 87.81 [2] 3. Commodity Futures 3.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 5, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1647.6, a环比 decrease of 49.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly in a volatile manner, closing at 1080.0 yuan, a环比 decrease of 33.3. The fourth round of price cuts by steel mills for coke has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. The supply side of coke shows increased production by coke enterprises and inventory accumulation, while the demand side sees rising blast furnace operation and increased daily pig iron output. For coking coal, the spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1235 yuan/ton on the futures market. The capacity utilization rate of mines and coal washing plants has decreased, while Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, leading to clean coal inventory accumulation. Steel and coke production loads have risen, but coke enterprises remain in a loss - making state [2][3][4] 3.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline in US sugar prices and the reduction in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward in the morning session, then rebounded slightly and closed slightly higher due to the boost from the strong stock market. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. It is expected that Thailand's 2025/26 annual sugar cane output will be 93 million tons, with an estimated range between 78 million and 108 million tons [4] 3.3 Rubber - As the peak rubber - producing season in Southeast Asia enters the second half, the pressure of spot supply will gradually ease. Coupled with the political turmoil in Venezuela affecting Southeast Asian spot quotes, which trended higher, the Shanghai Rubber futures contract oscillated upward on Monday. At night, it oscillated slightly higher. From January to November 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 2.419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [4] 3.4 Soybeans and Soybean Meal - For the week ending December 25, US soybean export sales for the current market year increased by 19% to 1.7777 million tons, with net sales to the Chinese mainland reaching 396,400 tons. Brazil has basically completed soybean sowing, and early - maturing soybeans are about to enter the harvest season. The current weather conditions in Brazil's soybean - producing areas are favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Most analysis institutions estimate Brazil's soybean output to be over 177 million tons, putting pressure on US soybean exports. As of December 30, Argentina's soybean sowing rate was 82%, and the sown soybeans are growing well. On January 5, the domestic soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2754 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Currently, domestic soybean port and oil mill inventories are at relatively high levels, and oil mill operating rates remain high, ensuring stable soybean meal output. However, the estimated soybean arrival volume in January 2026 is only 5 million tons, a significant reduction from the previous period, which may gradually ease the supply - side pressure [5] 3.5 Live Pigs - On January 5, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,660 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. On the supply side, large - scale pig farms have completed their annual plans and are slowing down in January, while small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a temporary shortage of medium and large - sized pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausages are booming, and terminal consumption is strong, effectively supporting pig prices. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of the live pig market has improved marginally, boosting prices to fluctuate strongly. However, in the long - term, the supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [5] 3.6 Palm Oil - On January 5, after the New Year's opening, domestic palm oil futures declined due to the weak performance of the overseas oil market during the holiday, erasing the pre - holiday gains. The P2605 contract closed with a negative K - line, with a high of 8600, a low of 8414, and a close of 8488, down 1.12% from the previous day. As of January 2, 2026 (Week 1), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons (1.01%) from the previous week and an increase of 225,000 tons (44.85%) from the same period last year [5] 3.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper contract opened at 99,450, reached a high of 101,380, a low of 99,150, and settled at 100,420, up 3110 from the previous settlement. The trading volume was 1.51 million lots, and the open interest was 2.163 million lots. Macroeconomic factors include the Fed's easing expectations and mild domestic stimulus, creating a positive sentiment. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the US tariffs, hoarding, and production - cut expectations have strengthened the narrative of supply shortage. The rise in LME copper prices has boosted the domestic market [5] 3.8 Cotton - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton. Cotton textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing, buying as they need. Cotton inventory increased by 406 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] 3.9 Iron Ore - On January 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up 0.95% at 797 yuan. Currently, global iron ore shipments are at a high level. Although the arrival volume has decreased, port inventories continue to accumulate. As steel mills' profitability improves and the end - of - year blast furnace maintenance nears completion, pig iron output is expected to stabilize and rise. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [5] 3.10 Asphalt - On January 5, the asphalt 2602 main contract closed up 3.95% at 3133 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries is expected to decrease in January. Coupled with the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in South America, which have increased the uncertainty of raw material supply, the tightening supply and rising costs support asphalt prices. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [6] 3.11 Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, reached a low of 772, a high of 783.5, and closed at 772.5, with an increase of 29 lots in open interest. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter and 730 yuan/cubic meter respectively. There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand relationship. Future price trends will depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic expectations [6] 3.12 Steel - On January 5, rb2605 closed at 3104 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3248 yuan/ton. As some steel mills' blast furnaces resume production and pig iron output increases, iron ore prices have been fluctuating at high levels recently. The coking coal market continues to weaken, suppressing coke prices. In the off - season, the supply - demand balance in the steel market continues, and raw material prices show different trends. The market sentiment is mainly wait - and - see, and steel prices may adjust slightly [6] 3.13 Alumina - On January 5, ao2605 closed at 2770 yuan/ton. The progress of production resumption and new capacity launch by domestic alumina enterprises has accelerated, and the expectation of oversupply continues to strengthen, putting pressure on alumina prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of electrolytic aluminum supports rigid demand, but the purchasing pace has slowed down. Downstream customers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs, and although spot quotes are firm, trading volume is low. Inventory continues to increase due to oversupply [6] 3.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 5, al2602 closed at 23,645 yuan/ton. The positive macro - economic sentiment has led funds to flow into non - ferrous metals, resulting in a general rise in the non - ferrous metals market. Aluminum has temporarily deviated from its industrial product attributes, and its resource circulation attributes have increased, weakening the pressure of seasonal demand and inventory accumulation. Therefore, aluminum prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, production is normal, and social inventories have accumulated. On the demand side, the pressure continues to increase. The purchasing and sales sides have shrunk, with more purchases by traders but less by downstream and terminal customers. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, with moderate demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors, while the consumption pressure in other sectors continues to increase [6]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Jinxin Futures PTA Ethylene Glycol Daily [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 2. PTA Analysis 2.1 Main Contract - On January 5, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.87%, and the basis weakened to -50 yuan/ton [2] 2.2 Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China today was 5030 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - Affected by the situation in Venezuela, the cost-side Brent crude oil fell to around $60/barrel [3] - PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 77.41% compared with the previous working day [3] - The weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.65 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.04 days [3] 2.3 Main Force Movements - There was a divergence between long and short main forces [3] 2.4 Trend Expectation - There was an expectation of an increase in the PTA supply side, and the downstream polyester load also decreased from a high level. The supply-demand pattern became looser compared to before [3] - Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival, and the terminal demand might weaken [3] - The market generally believed that the supply and demand of upstream PX was tight. It was expected that the PTA price would fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3] 3. MEG Analysis 3.1 Main Contract - On January 5, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 2.51%, and the basis weakened to -126 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3640 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The cost-side crude oil and coal prices were under pressure [4] - The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 65.6 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons from the previous period [4] 3.3 Main Force Movements - Short main forces increased their positions [4] 3.4 Trend Expectation - Previously, multiple sets of devices were shut down for maintenance, and the arrival of cargo ships was delayed due to windy weather, which alleviated the pressure on the ethylene glycol supply side [4] - There was still seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near term, and the supply pressure in 2026 remained high [4] - It was expected that the ethylene glycol price would continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and strong cost support at the bottom. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the northern operating rate [2]. - The polysilicon market also shows weak supply and demand, with inventory pressure still existing. However, due to strong price support in the market and downstream market games, it is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week. The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated at a low level, closing at 8,860 yuan/ton on December 31 [2][7]. - **Supply**: In early January, some production capacities in Xinjiang were cut, and the output decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in Yunnan remained stable, and that in Sichuan slightly decreased. Overall, the output of industrial silicon continued to decline month - on - month [2][16]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon was basically stable, and the output in December increased slightly month - on - month. In January, some enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline. The output change of organic silicon was limited, and there was still a possibility of decline under the background of emission reduction and price support. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was basically stable. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 557,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [2]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 4, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [11]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and corrected at a high level, closing at 57,920 yuan/ton on December 31 [3][14]. - **Supply**: The expected output of polysilicon in December was 114,500 tons. In January, a small number of enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: Recently, there was an obvious game in the polysilicon market, with more inquiries from downstream. Under the influence of the establishment of the polysilicon production capacity integration platform and the expected sales restriction in January, leading enterprises strongly supported the price. Downstream silicon wafer enterprises increased the production reduction intensity, and maintained rigid demand procurement in the short term. Enterprises with low inventory increased the procurement intensity. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 287,800 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week [3][22]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of January 4, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475, and 1.65 yuan/piece respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.05, 0.05, 0.075, and 0.05 yuan/piece respectively. The price of the silicon wafer market strengthened, and the transaction increased significantly compared with the previous period [26]. - **Battery Chip**: As of January 4, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.38 yuan/watt respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/watt. The battery chips were strongly pulled up by cost drivers [30]. - **Component**: As of January 4, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.685, 0.705, 0.685, and 0.705 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The cost of components increased, and enterprises successively raised their quotes, but the overall transaction was weak in the off - season at the end of the year, showing a situation of high prices but few transactions [33]. Organic Silicon - **Price and Operation**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The offers of mainstream monomer factories of organic silicon remained stable. The raw material inventories of some downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises were gradually consumed, and the inquiry and procurement increased. The operating rate change was not large in January, and it was expected to weaken [35][37]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Operation**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was stable, and they purchased at low prices as needed [41].