投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250724 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：全球关税路径趋明，中美下周重启谈判 海外方面，对等关税有所进展，①欧媒称美欧接近达成关税协议，拟设 15%基准税率、 部分行业豁免；②特朗普称将对多数国家征收 15%-50%关税，若主要国家开放市场，美国 愿意取消关税；③美中拟下周斯德哥尔摩会谈，争取 8 月 12 日前达成协议。美财长贝森特 称美联储预测带有政治偏见，特朗普再度施压鲍威尔，要求尽快降息，目前 9 月降息概率升 至 61%。随着多国关税路径逐步明朗，市场风险偏好上升，标普 500 再创新高，金价回调， 美元指数偏弱，铜价震荡收涨。当前美国基本面依然稳健，美联储独立性与关税博弈构成主 要不确定性来源，今日关注 7 月 PMI 数据。 国内：股市与商品市场情绪依旧积极，但多空博弈加剧，情绪或临近阶段性高点。A 股 冲高回落，两市成交维持 1.9 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 领涨，整体赚钱效应趋弱，内需商品 出现部分获利了结迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank will continue to implement a 400 billion MLF operation, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment despite low probabilities for rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank announced a 400 billion yuan MLF operation on July 25, with a one-year term, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [1] - This operation results in a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, as the MLF maturity for the month is 3000 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - According to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, the sustained net liquidity injection is driven by two main factors: the rapid issuance of government bonds and accelerated credit investment, necessitating coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1] - The central bank's continued use of quantity-based tools signals a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to stabilize market expectations and create a favorable environment for credit expansion [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Wang Qing anticipates that the probability of rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term is low, but monetary policy will remain proactive under the overarching goal of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing trends in public fund investments, with a notable shift towards sectors such as telecommunications, biopharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials as of Q2 2025 [3] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of public funds reached 34.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.76% [3] - Investors continue to favor stable-return bond products, while showing high enthusiasm for commodity and overseas asset allocations; only passive equity fund shares maintained positive growth [3] Group 2 - The tungsten industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with rising prices for tungsten concentrate driven by mining cost increases and supportive policies such as export controls and the construction of the Yajiang hydropower project [4] - The urea industry is anticipated to benefit from the exit of outdated facilities and supply-side reforms, which are expected to enhance industry prosperity [5] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aims to improve power generation efficiency through a cascade development approach [5] Group 3 - Tesla's Q2 2025 performance showed a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3%, reaching 22.5 billion dollars; the gross margin also improved slightly [6] - The company is focusing on the commercialization of Robotaxi operations as part of its growth strategy [6] - The revenue of the reading platform, Yuewen Group, has been influenced by new revenue recognition methods, while its proprietary side has seen profit improvements [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the securities ETF, with a 2.53% increase and a six-day rising streak, driven by favorable policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market [1] - The China Galaxy Securities report indicates that the policy goals of "stabilizing growth and the stock market" and "boosting the capital market" will continue to shape the future direction of the sector, supported by a moderately loose liquidity environment and improved investor confidence [1] - As of July 18, the PB valuation of the securities sector stands at 1.39x, which is in the 22.60% percentile since 2010, suggesting a high safety margin and indicating that it is a suitable time for sector allocation [1] Group 2 - The securities ETF Southern closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which reflects the overall performance of different industry companies within the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CITIC Securities, East Money, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, indicating a diverse representation of major players in the securities industry [2] - The ETF provides a comprehensive analysis tool by categorizing the index samples into various industry levels, enhancing the investment decision-making process for investors [2]

Group 1: Equipment Manufacturing Industry - The equipment manufacturing industry has shown robust growth in the first half of 2025, with industrial added value increasing by 10.2%, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.8 percentage points [5][6] - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing saw a significant increase of 16.6% in industrial added value [5] - The production of advanced technologies like 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and service robots has also experienced notable growth [5] Group 2: Energy and Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report anticipates a recovery in trade, particularly benefiting the petrochemical sector, which has been undervalued [11] - The domestic consumption recovery is expected to favor companies with cost advantages in the oil and gas sector, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [12] - Metal prices are projected to rebound, with aluminum prices expected to rise, benefiting companies rich in mineral resources like Tianshan Aluminum [12] Group 3: Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3582.30, a slight increase of 0.01% [17][24] - The market experienced significant capital outflows, with net outflows exceeding 217 billion yuan, indicating increased selling pressure [17] - The healthcare and insurance sectors performed well, with the healthcare services sector rising by 1.62% [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive market performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, with specific emphasis on the significant gains in the Hainan Free Trade Zone sector and the tourism industry, driven by upcoming policy changes and market conditions [1][5]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3599.44 points, up 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index is at 11130.72 points, up 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index is at 2327.36 points, up 0.72% [1][2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 23 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3900 stocks rising [3]. Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced significant gains, alongside strong performances in the semiconductor supply chain, large financial stocks, duty-free shop concepts, rare earth permanent magnets, and the tourism and hotel sectors [2][5]. - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, CPO, and pork stocks showed weakness [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Citic Securities, the official announcement regarding the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure on December 18, 2025, is expected to enhance trade and accelerate the development of Hainan as an international tourism consumption center, benefiting various stakeholders in the tourism industry [5]. - The continued implementation of the offshore duty-free policy is anticipated to maintain the competitive advantage of duty-free operators, with the closure expected to increase Hainan's attractiveness and boost the overall development of the tourism retail market [5]. - China Galaxy Securities notes that the government's focus on "stabilizing growth and the stock market" will positively influence the securities sector, with expectations of improved liquidity and investor confidence contributing to the sector's upward trend [5].

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年7月24日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 现值 | 品种 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 3380 | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | | 3370 | 10 | ટેર | | | 3340 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | | 3330 | 10 | 16 | | | 3490 | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3480 | | -10 | 156 | | | 3350 | 螺纹钢05合约 | | 3386 | -36 | 30 | | | 3274 | 螺纹钢10合约 | | 3307 | -33 | 106 | | | 3324 | 螺纹钢01合约 | | 3367 | -43 | 56 | | | 3450 | 热卷现货 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Given the expected strength of coal and the weakness of crude oil, coal - chemical products will be stronger than oil - chemical products in the future. Chemical products may continue to fluctuate in the near term [2]. - The high -开工 reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak supply - led expectations will balance each other, resulting in oil price fluctuations [9]. - The high valuation of asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to fall as warehouse receipts increase [10]. - The prices of most chemical products, including methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, etc., are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil: High - level pressure, pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the price will fluctuate [8][9]. - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation remains loose, and the PG futures may show a weak - side fluctuation [3]. - Asphalt: The spot price of major suppliers has dropped, and the high - valued asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is a large downward pressure on the futures price [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will fluctuate weakly following the crude oil [3][12]. - Methanol: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it will fluctuate [3][26]. - Urea: The market sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure [3][27]. - Ethylene glycol: The price will be widely adjusted, and it will seek a direction in the fluctuation [3][20]. - PX: The cost raw materials are weak, but the commodity sentiment is warm [3][14]. - PTA: The commodity sentiment stimulates the futures price to fluctuate more violently [3][15]. - Short - fiber: There are limited industrial contradictions, and it will fluctuate following the cost [3][22]. - Bottle chips: It will fluctuate following the upstream cost [3][24]. - PP: The macro - boost confronts the fundamental pressure, and it will fluctuate [3][31]. - Propylene: It had a remarkable debut, and the PL may fluctuate in the short term [3][32]. - Plastic: Supported by the macro - environment, it will fluctuate [3][30]. - Pure benzene: The balance sheet has improved, but the port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it will trade sideways [3][15]. - Styrene: The trading atmosphere is light, and it will fluctuate within a range [3][19]. - PVC: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic [3][34]. - Caustic soda: Strong expectations but weak reality, it may have a weak rebound [3][35] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.78 with a change of - 0.04; Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.69 with a change of 0.03 [37]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Such as asphalt's basis is 251 with a change of 15 and 82300 warehouse receipts; high - sulfur fuel oil's basis is 150 with a change of 39 and 113980 warehouse receipts [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For instance, 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 378 with a change of 60; 1 - month TA - EG spread is 344 with a change of 13 [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in a clear and unified manner in the given text

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial field, the stock index may see a style shift from small - and medium - cap to large - and medium - cap stocks, and the bond market is affected by multiple factors. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends influenced by policies, seasons, and international trade [3][6]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: The National Development and Reform Commission promotes coordinated development of state - owned and private enterprises; over 3000 cases of chikungunya fever are confirmed in Foshan; Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US; the police strengthen management of "intelligent driving"; the EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly 100 billion euros of US goods if negotiations break down [2]. - **Trading Logic**: "Anti - involution" drives the rebound of traditional cyclical and track stocks, and the "Yajiang Hydropower" sector drives the rebound of infrastructure and power equipment sectors. It is recommended to go long on IF index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined [4]. - **News**: The yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a high, and the Nikkei 225 index rose; the cumulative power generation installed capacity in China increased; the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 is resilient, and the central bank maintains a positive attitude towards capital. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the recent good sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver declined, while COMEX gold and silver showed different trends. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The reduction of overseas trade policy uncertainty pressures gold prices, while the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy makes silver prices resilient. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on silver [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper and Shanghai copper rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: The decline of US Treasury yields and the expected release of domestic growth - stabilizing plans are positive, but the tight supply of copper raw materials, the off - season downstream demand, and the approaching US copper tariff implementation limit the upward space of copper prices [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum declined. Domestic inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The upcoming domestic growth - stabilizing plan and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut are positive, but the off - season demand and the expected increase in inventory limit the upward space of aluminum prices [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME inventories are at certain levels [13]. - **Price Outlook**: In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the loose supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, zinc prices may be volatile and strong due to the Fed's dovish attitude and the positive commodity market atmosphere [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME inventories are at certain levels [14][16]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by anti - dumping tariffs. It is expected that domestic lead prices will be weak [16]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices declined, and nickel iron prices were under pressure [17]. - **Price Outlook**: The weak demand and high stainless steel inventory will lead to a further decline in ore prices and the price center of the industrial chain. It is recommended to try short positions lightly [17]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is expected to increase, and the domestic smelting plants face raw material supply pressure [18]. - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals of tin are weak due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures price also dropped significantly [19]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price is affected by the commodity market atmosphere and supply expectations, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [19][20]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short in the future [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract declined slightly. The spot price was relatively stable, and the social inventory decreased [22]. - **Price Outlook**: The anti - involution policy boosts the industry's willingness to support prices, but the oversupply situation remains. The market's upward momentum is weak [22]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased slightly [23]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The cost support is strengthened, but the price increase is difficult [23]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices declined. The spot price of rebar increased slightly, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [25]. - **Price Outlook**: The overall commodity market atmosphere is positive, and the low inventory level is supportive. The market is expected to strengthen, but it is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [26]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore declined. The spot price and the basis are at certain levels [27]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but risk control is needed [28]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in the short - term under the influence of policies, and it is recommended to avoid short positions [29]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in the short - term but limited in the long - term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short - term and look for short opportunities later [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices declined. The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and that of ferrosilicon increased [31]. - **Price Outlook**: The industry has an over - capacity pattern, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see in the current high - volatility market [32]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon futures price declined. The spot price increased, and the short - term rebound trend may end [36]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is excessive, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market and consider hedging for the industry [37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed an oscillating trend after continuous rises. The opening rates of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber increased slightly [40][41]. - **Outlook**: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, be cautious of short - term corrections, and consider a spread trading strategy [42]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude oil declined, Brent remained unchanged, and INE crude oil rose. US inventory data showed different trends [43]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are healthy, and there is upward momentum, but the seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upward space. It is recommended to go long on dips and take profits [44]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price declined, and the spot price rose. The market is driven by news, and the volatility is high [45]. - **Outlook**: The upstream and downstream are likely to be in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [45]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The market was affected by the "anti - involution" policy [46]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support below but is limited above. It is recommended not to chase the high [46]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost support exists, and the inventory increased [47][48]. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost [48]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand decreased [49]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved, but there is still pressure. It is necessary to be cautious of the risk of sentiment ebbing [49]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined, and the spot price rose. The supply decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the short - term valuation has support due to unexpected events [50]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract declined, and the spot price rose. The supply and demand were relatively stable, and the inventory increased [51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to look for long - term opportunities following PX on dips [51]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract declined. The supply and demand were relatively stable, and the inventory decreased [52]. - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is recommended to look for long - term opportunities following crude oil on dips [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE futures price declined, and the spot price rose. The upstream opening rate increased slightly, and the inventory changed [53]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, with the short - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven to inventory - driven [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP futures price declined, and the spot price rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the downstream opening rate decreased [55]. - **Outlook**: In the off - season, the supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The short - term futures and spot prices deviate. The market has high expectations, but there is also hedging pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [57]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price mainly rose. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand improved slightly [58]. - **Outlook**: The spot price has bottomed out, and the short - term price is oscillating. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybean and soybean meal futures declined at night. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose, and the transaction was weak [59]. - **Outlook**: The external soybean market is in a low - valuation and oversupply state. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [59][61]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. Domestic palm oil oscillated and declined, and the net long positions of foreign capital in three major oils decreased [62][63]. - **Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the short - term and has a rising expectation in the fourth - quarter. However, the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [64]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices continued to oscillate. The spot price was relatively stable [65]. - **Outlook**: The import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year, and the probability of a continued decline in sugar prices is high [66]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to oscillate. The spot price was stable. The expected new - cotton yield increased [67]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price has rebounded, but the downstream consumption is average. The possible issuance of import quotas is a potential negative factor [67].