Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, inflation, fiscal and financial conditions, and global trade uncertainties. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% with a decline rate of 2.44%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% with a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.19 with a growth rate of 0.19%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0390, up 0.001 with a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.07%; DR007 is 1.44, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.45%; R007 is 1.51, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.31%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.63, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.14 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.084 yuan, - 0.076 yuan, - 0.053 yuan, and - 0.228 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2]. - In November, the overall financial data was weak. The credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans. The medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, and the loans increased significantly less year - on - year. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 46.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.275%, 1.428%, 1.471%, and 1.541% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific data summary provided in the text, only mentions various spread trend charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [37][38][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][53]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][69]. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - The "Fenghuo Cup" private equity selection event organized by Changcheng Securities has attracted over 600 private equity institutions and more than 1,600 products since its launch in October 2025, covering seven core strategies including stock, index enhancement, neutral, arbitrage, CTA, bond, and combination strategies [1] - The event aims to provide ample time for participating institutions to showcase their investment capabilities, with registration open until June 2026 [1] - The initiative is part of Changcheng Securities' effort to create a supportive ecosystem for quality private equity growth, offering diverse resources and platforms for trading execution, investment support, and financing solutions [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, the current economic cycle is perceived to be in a relatively early stage, with policies aimed at supply-side reform generating positive expectations, although actual progress remains to be verified [2] - The consensus among fund managers is that there are still reasonably valued targets in the market, such as the food and beverage index's price-to-earnings ratio and the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio, both at historical lows [2] - Investment opportunities in the technology sector are highlighted, particularly in AI, with a focus on hardware that has reasonable valuations and is part of new major industry chains [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will be implemented, with potential further declines in risk-free interest rates and an increase in the value of credit bond allocations [3] - The stock market outlook favors relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and consumer electronics, alongside technology leaders in AI chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing power [3] - The difficulty of stock selection and timing is expected to increase, making industry ETFs a more cost-effective option for investment [3]

银河证券指出，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标将持续定调板块未来走向，流动性 适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素共同推动证券板块景气度上 行。当前环境下，中长期资金加速入市，市场活跃度维持高位，资本市场展现出"健康牛"态势，财富管 理转型、国际业务拓展、金融科技赋能均有望成为行业提升ROE驱动力。当前板块估值处于历史低位， 防御反弹攻守兼备。 ...

今日A股震荡下行。上证指数收于3867.92点，下跌0.55%，深证成指收于13112.09点，下跌1.10%。两市 共计成交不足1.8万亿元，较前一交易日有所下降。市场整体跌多涨少，电子通信方向领跌。当前A股所 处的经济和政策环境整体维持积极，预计财政支出将保持积极，推动经济总需求回暖。中期来看，在各 项稳增长措施及宽松货币、财政政策落地后，总需求增速有望重回扩张区间，带动A股重新进入上行周 期。 统计局日前发布的经济数据显示，11月CPI、PPI保持稳定，固定资产投资增速加速下滑，其中房地产开 发投资增速累计同比录得-15.9%继续寻底。在供给偏强、需求偏弱、投资趋缓、通胀低位的环境下，债 券仍然具有配置价值。就点位而言，当前10年期国债收益率突破1.85%的央行合意区间上沿，且需求端 或因长债利率上升增加配置需求。建议适当关注久期策略，持续关注十年国债ETF(511260)。 黄金板块今日表现亮眼，黄金基金ETF(518800)上涨1.37%，黄金股票ETF(517400)上涨1.28%。短期， 12月FOMC降息25bp，并在12月启动准备金管理购买；俄乌和谈仍在拉扯，特朗普持续对委内瑞拉施 压。中长 ...

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market experienced significant net inflows, exceeding 16.5 billion yuan on December 12, with notable contributions from various indices, indicating strong investor interest and potential market momentum [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of December 12, the total scale of the stock ETF market reached 4.62 trillion yuan, with a total of 1,273 stock ETFs [3]. - On December 12, the market saw an increase of 796.4 million shares, with a net inflow of 16.573 billion yuan, where 41 stock ETFs had net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [3]. - The top five sectors for fund inflows included the CSI A500 index (5.91 billion yuan), CSI 300 index (3.55 billion yuan), CSI 500 index (3.25 billion yuan), CSI 1000 index (1.81 billion yuan), and the Dividend index (1.49 billion yuan) [3]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Outflows - The CSI A500 index ETF led the inflows with 5.9 billion yuan, while the STAR 50 index ETF saw the largest outflow of 770 million yuan [3]. - Over the past five days, the CSI A500 index ETF attracted over 9.6 billion yuan, and the Hang Seng Technology index ETF saw inflows exceeding 3 billion yuan [2][3]. - On the outflow side, seven stock ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, particularly in sectors like technology and banking [5]. Group 3: Fund Management Insights - Leading fund companies, such as E Fund and Huaxia Fund, reported substantial net inflows in their ETF products, with E Fund's ETFs increasing by 223.5 billion yuan since 2025, including a net inflow of 60.33 billion yuan [6]. - E Fund's notable inflows on the previous trading day included 570 million yuan for the ChiNext ETF and 380 million yuan for the CSI 300 ETF [6]. - Market analysts suggest that the index may enter a "cross-year market" phase, driven by policy catalysts, with a shift from defensive to aggressive investment strategies recommended [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is more focused on "structural adjustment," suggesting a potential for a structural market trend in the upcoming year [4][6][26] - Historical patterns show that years emphasizing "stabilizing growth" typically lead to stronger market performance, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap and value stocks over growth stocks [2][10] - Conversely, years focused on "structural adjustment" tend to exhibit market volatility, with large-cap stocks remaining flat while small-cap stocks weaken [2][10] Summary by Sections Historical Performance Post-Central Economic Work Conference - The report categorizes past conferences into two themes: "stabilizing growth" and "structural adjustment," with specific years identified for each theme [1][2] - Years with a "stabilizing growth" focus include 2014, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024, characterized by economic slowdowns and policies aimed at maintaining stability [1][2] - Years emphasizing "structural adjustment" include 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2023, where the focus was on addressing structural issues and risks [2] Market Behavior and Style Preferences - In "stabilizing growth" years, the market index typically strengthens, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks and value stocks outperforming growth stocks [2][10] - In "structural adjustment" years, the market tends to be more volatile, with large-cap stocks showing flat performance and small-cap stocks declining [2][10] Industry Performance Insights - The report notes that the focus of the Central Economic Work Conference influences the following year's market trends, with specific industry policies guiding investment directions [3][4] - For instance, the emphasis on "innovation-driven" policies in 2012 led to a TMT boom in 2013, while the focus on "new consumption" and "new infrastructure" in 2018 shaped market trends in 2019 [3] 2025 Conference Insights - The 2025 conference highlights a "supply strong, demand weak" scenario, indicating a need to balance supply and demand dynamics [4][6] - The report suggests that monetary policy will prioritize economic stability and reasonable price recovery, which could lead to improved corporate profitability if inflation expectations rise [6] - Expanding domestic demand is a key focus, with policies aimed at increasing consumer income and stabilizing investment to counteract previous declines in fixed asset investment growth [6] Market Outlook and Sector Allocation - The report anticipates a structural market trend in 2025, with specific sectors recommended for investment, including AI applications, semiconductor, and renewable energy sectors [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy developments to inform investment strategies in the upcoming year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese A-shares experienced a significant increase on December 12, with major indices showing positive performance, driven by optimistic signals from the Central Economic Work Conference regarding future economic policies [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889 points, up by 0.41% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258 points, up by 0.84% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3194 points, up by 0.97% - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 20,922 billion yuan, an increase of about 2,351 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized a policy direction focused on stability and quality improvement for the upcoming year - The conference outlined eight key tasks for China's economic work by 2026, with a strong emphasis on domestic demand and building a robust domestic market as the top priority [1]. - Analyst Xiong Yue from Dongguan Securities noted that the conference's positive policy signals could support economic recovery and enhance market risk appetite, suggesting that A-shares may continue to rise [1]. Sector Performance - According to statistics from Dongfang Caifu, sectors such as precious metals, power grid equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors saw significant gains, with the precious metals sector leading with a 3.81% increase [2].

会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；增强宏观政策取向一 致性和有效性。 刘英分析，这传递出"双宽松"政策将延续并强化的信号，释放清晰的逆周期与跨周期调节意图，为经济 增长注入确定性。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。多位受访专家分析，此次会议释放三大信号，明确2026 年"稳增长"的工作主线。 一是以提质增效为引领，锚定高质量发展方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。提法与去年"稳中求进、以进促 稳"略有不同。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉认为，政策演进的方向是"提质增效"，意味着未来的操作将从"有没有"的规 模考量，转向"好不好"的效率与精准性考量。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英表示，从"以进促稳"变为"提质增效"，标志着宏观政策重心已 从"稳总量、保增速"逐步转变为"优结构、提效能"。其中，"稳"是基础，"进"是方向，"提质增效"则是 核心，这要求政策精准发力，减少无效供给，聚焦全要素生产率提升，为"十五五"开局筑牢高质量发展 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-12 美联储降息25bp, 国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同 ...