Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting is interpreted by the market as a "dovish" signal for monetary easing, but it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability and extent of interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's remarks clarify the Federal Reserve's "reaction function," indicating a tendency to lower interest rates when employment risks outweigh inflation risks [1] - There exists a dual risk of employment and inflation due to significantly higher tariff rates and tightened immigration policies, which complicates the monetary policy landscape [1] Group 2: Market Implications - If inflation risks surpass employment concerns, Powell may halt interest rate cuts using the same "reaction function," suggesting that the market should not view his speech as the beginning of a series of easing measures [1] - The potential for "stagflation" pressures from tariffs and immigration policies may create a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, hindering true monetary easing [1] - A decline in market risk appetite and increased volatility may follow as a result of these challenges in monetary policy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the bond market is weak, and the stock market is expected to remain strong. The performance of the bond market will be dominated by the capital side and the equity market, and the cost - effectiveness of going long on the bond market is limited compared to the stock market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 18th to 22nd, treasury bond futures continued to decline. Influenced by factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, tax payment periods, and stock market trends, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2512 contracts decreased by 0.066 yuan, 0.300 yuan, 0.570 yuan, and 1.310 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain weak. The capital side and the equity market will dominate the bond's trend. The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation next Monday with a net capital injection of 300 billion yuan, but the capital side may tighten marginally during tax payment and end - of - month periods. The expectation of broad - based monetary policy may rise, but its positive impact on the bond market is limited. The stock market is expected to remain strong, and the cost - effectiveness of going long on the bond market is limited [2][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 136 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 925.84 billion yuan and a net financing of 655.86 billion yuan, an increase of 370.148 billion yuan and 312.066 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [19][20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields increased. As of August 22nd, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 3.53bp, 5.58bp, 4.26bp, and 4.50bp respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [24][25] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures continued to decline. As of August 22nd, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2512 contracts decreased compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year decreased, and that of 30 - year increased [34][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious this week. The basis of treasury bond futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp [43] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of August 22nd, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts generally widened. The previously recommended strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be gradually closed for profit [46][47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 136.52 billion yuan. As of August 22nd, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed by - 1.91bp, - 3.67bp, + 2.00bp, and - 0.20bp respectively compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased by 1.02 trillion yuan compared to last week [51][53][55] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated weakly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined. As of August 22nd, the US dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 97.7244 compared to last weekend, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 7BP to 4.26%. The 10Y treasury bond yield spread between China and the US was inverted by 247.7BP [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices declined uniformly, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of August 22nd, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index decreased by 27.09 points, 101.16 points, and 4.31 points respectively compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changed by + 0.05 yuan/kg, + 0.09 yuan/kg, and - 0.09 yuan/kg respectively compared to last weekend [63][64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - In the short - term, the bond market sentiment is weak, and caution is needed when trading for rebounds. It is recommended to focus on short - hedging strategies, use T or TL for hedging in a strong stock market environment, pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and close the strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread for profit [16][17]

Macro Economic Outlook - Indonesia's GDP growth accelerated to 5.12% in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.8%, driven by strong household spending and infrastructure investment [2][8] - Household consumption increased slightly to 4.97% year-on-year, while investment growth reached 6.99%, the highest in four years, supported by major infrastructure projects like the Jakarta metro expansion [2][8] - To sustain this growth momentum, policies should focus on cautious monetary easing, fiscal stimulus for household spending, and strategic trade reforms to attract foreign investment and diversify exports [2][8] Tariff and Trade Agreements - Starting August 2025, the U.S. will impose a 19% "reciprocal tariff" on Indonesia, positioning Indonesia favorably among ASEAN countries and alleviating short-term export risks [3][21] - Indonesia has signed several agreements with the U.S., including zero tariffs on key minerals and a $34 billion MoU for energy and agricultural products, while negotiations on palm oil and rubber exports are ongoing [3][21] Fiscal Stimulus and Monetary Easing - In June-July 2025, Indonesia launched a $1.5 billion fiscal stimulus plan, the second round of measures this year, aimed at boosting domestic demand through transportation discounts and social assistance [4][22] - The central bank has adopted a moderately easing monetary policy, reducing the benchmark interest rate from 6.25% in Q2 2024 to 5.5% in Q2 2025, with expectations of further cuts to 5.3% in Q3 2025 [4][24] State-Owned Enterprise Restructuring - Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, is restructuring over 60 state-owned enterprises, focusing on the mining and energy sectors to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [5][25] - The restructuring aims to reinvest dividends into downstream industries and renewable energy, positioning state-owned enterprises as drivers of industrial upgrading and global supply chain integration [5][26] Capital Market Dynamics - Despite attracting over $1 billion in the bond market this quarter, Indonesia's stock market has seen a foreign capital outflow of $3.8 billion year-to-date, reversing the $1.2 billion inflow in 2024 [6][27] - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 1.6% year-to-date, becoming one of the weakest currencies in Southeast Asia, primarily due to global volatility and domestic policy uncertainties [6][27] Industry Allocation - Short-term investment opportunities are seen in defensive assets such as essential consumer goods, while financial services and infrastructure sectors are expected to benefit from Danantara's restructuring and fiscal expansion [7][29] - Long-term prospects favor the energy and mining sectors, which are likely to benefit from industrialization and state-owned enterprise reforms led by Danantara [7][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. The US is facilitating a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, weakening geopolitical concerns. The API crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, which partially boosted oil prices. Overall, crude oil continued to oscillate weakly at a low level, awaiting more news from the Russia-Ukraine situation. Short-term prices are expected to range between 480-490, and long-term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US President Trump said that Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky are arranging a meeting to end the Ukraine war. India's oil imports from Russia decreased in July. US Treasury Secretary criticized India's oil trading behavior. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 19, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $68.06 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.79 per barrel. The basis was 23.85 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 3.036 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 45,000 barrels for the week ending August 8. As of August 19, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average was downward, and the price was below the moving average, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, suggesting a bearish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: Short-term prices are expected to range between 480-490, and long-term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - **Trilateral Meeting**: The White House is planning a trilateral meeting between the US, Russian, and Ukrainian presidents in Budapest to end the long - standing conflict. The US Secret Service is preparing for the summit, although the final venue may change [5]. - **API Inventory Data**: For the week ending August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.2 million barrels. The API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 112,000 barrels. The API gasoline inventory decreased by 956,000 barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 535,000 barrels [5]. - **Option Betting**: Traders are pouring into a specific option bet, expecting the Fed to take a dovish stance and cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points next month. However, higher - than - expected inflation data has led some traders to lower their interest - rate cut expectations [5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period may be extended again [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium and long term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $66.60 to $65.79, a decrease of 1.22%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $62.70 to $61.77, a decrease of 1.48%. The settlement price of SC crude oil decreased slightly from 485.2 to 485.1, a decrease of 0.02%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased from $67.64 to $68.10, an increase of 0.68% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $67.53 to $67.62, an increase of 0.13%. The price of WTI decreased from $63.42 to $62.35, a decrease of 1.69%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $67.95 to $68.06, an increase of 0.16%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim decreased slightly from $64.00 to $63.99, a decrease of 0.02%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $67.90 to $68.17, an increase of 0.40% [9]. - **API Inventory Trend**: From June 6 to August 15, the API inventory showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 2.417 million barrels for the week ending August 15 [10]. - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From June 6 to August 8, the EIA inventory also fluctuated, with an increase of 3.036 million barrels for the week ending August 8 [12]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From June 10 to August 12, the net long position of the WTI crude oil fund showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 25,087 on August 12 compared to August 5 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From June 10 to August 12, the net long position of the Brent crude oil fund also fluctuated, with a decrease of 34,430 on August 12 compared to August 5 [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of August 20, 2025, indicating a stable monetary policy stance by the People's Bank of China [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections LPR Rates - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, effective until the next announcement [1][3]. - The LPR has remained stable for three consecutive months following a 10 basis point decrease in May [3]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary policy measures since May, aimed at boosting confidence and stabilizing expectations in the economy [5][6]. - The central bank's report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning financing growth with economic growth targets [6][7]. Economic Context - Analysts suggest that external uncertainties and domestic demand issues necessitate a supportive monetary policy to counter economic downward pressures [7]. - There is an expectation of potential further reductions in policy rates and LPR in the upcoming months, influenced by both domestic conditions and external factors such as U.S. monetary policy [6][7].

Group 1 - Traders are heavily betting on a specific options strategy that relies on the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance and significantly cutting rates by more than 25 basis points next month [1] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference, where Fed Chair Powell will deliver a key speech, is pivotal for validating or undermining investor expectations for monetary easing [1][2] - Despite a brief pullback, traders maintain their forecast for a rate cut next month, as evidenced by a decline in Treasury yields, ending a three-day sell-off [1] Group 2 - The demand for positions linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has surged since the beginning of the month, with a significant increase in open contracts targeting a 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Current market pricing indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 16-17 meeting [3] - A recent survey by JPMorgan shows that investors are shifting from short positions to a neutral stance, with neutral positions reaching a one-month high [3]

道明仍预计美联储总共将降息六次，每次幅度25个基点，最终利率为3%。具体为今年降息三次，明年 每季度一次，直至9月末；此前该行的预期是今年降息两次、明年降息四次。道明证券的策略师 OscarMunoz和GennadiyGoldberg在报告中表示："鉴于劳动力市场状况减弱的迹象，我们认为今日的通 胀数据可能会促使几位在下一步政策路径上仍持观望态度的美联储官员改变看法"。他们预计，美联储 主席鲍威尔将在下周的杰克逊霍尔讲话中"传达出美联储倾向于9月开始货币宽松的立场"。道明策略团 队还将他们对2025年末5年期美债收益率的预测从3.70%下调至3.65%。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.87，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为97.80。根据上周公布的美 国7月CPI报告，道明证券策略师预测，美联储将更早开始降息，时间由10月提前至9月。 从美元指数(DXY)的图表来看，当前价格依旧处于下降通道内。布林带显示价格前期已经触及上轨 98.66附近并遭遇强烈回调，当前价格再次回落至98.00下方。随着价格逐步接近下轨97.60区域，市场对 该位置的支撑力度充满疑问。 ...

PPI通胀超预期压制贵金属，美国7月PPI年率录得3.3%，为2月以来高位；7月PPI月率录得0.9%，为 2022年6月以来最大增幅，数据公布后FedWatch显示9月降息概率降至92.1%，10月再降息概率仅 55.2%，预期降温触发纽约金失守3400美元。 美联储官员齐驳大幅降息，财长贝森特澄清"未呼吁降息150基点"但确认保留黄金储备及停售比特币持 仓，货币宽松预期收缩主导短期波动；地缘上特朗普设定"特普会效果决定后续动作"的弹性框架，普京 释放军控协议信号但克里姆林宫没有签署签成果文件的计划，西方拟推动三方峰会的不确定性仍存。 【交易思路】 贵金属短期或震荡调整。PPI数据颠覆通胀回落叙事，叠加美联储鹰派表态压制宽松预期，黄金需守稳 3350美元附近支撑，反弹需突破3400美元左右心理关口；白银受跟跌效应拖累，37美元左右成多空分水 岭。 摘要周五（8月15日），周四，美元指数有所反弹，随后因美国7月PPI指数高于预期，或暗示未来几个 月通胀将普遍上升，美指扩大涨幅并重回98关口上方，最终收涨0.43%，报98.17；现货黄金日内持续下 挫，并在美盘时段一度跌破3330美元关口，较日高大跌超40美元 ...

Group 1 - The price of antimony in the domestic market has likely reached its bottom, with expectations of recovery due to seasonal demand and potential export growth [1] - Tungsten product prices are hitting new highs, driven by a decrease in supply from domestic quotas and environmental inspections, while overseas production increases are below expectations [1] - The upcoming peak season for flame retardants in September and October may significantly boost domestic antimony prices if export demand recovers [1] Group 2 - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with upstream equipment segments expected to benefit first as production processes are optimized [2] - The production process of solid-state batteries differs from traditional lithium batteries, leading to a significant increase in the value of equipment used in the early and mid-stages of production [2] - The transition to dry processing techniques in the electrode and electrolyte preparation stages enhances the value contribution of these processes [2] Group 3 - The monetary policy in the second half of the year may be more accommodative than expected, focusing on economic growth and employment [3] - External factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may create favorable conditions for monetary easing in China [3] - Domestic economic pressures, including the impact of tariffs and low inflation, suggest a need for further reductions in policy interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal of monetary policy in the second half of the year remains economic growth and full employment, with potential for monetary easing to exceed expectations [1] Group 1: External Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again in September, creating favorable conditions for monetary easing [1] - The U.S. imposing additional tariffs on China may impact Chinese exports, potentially leading to a temporary slowdown in economic growth and increased employment pressure [1] Group 2: Internal Factors - The economy is likely to remain in a low inflation environment in the second half of the year, with real interest rates still relatively high, indicating a need for further reductions [1] - A policy interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points is anticipated in the third quarter, which will guide the downward adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and further lower loan and deposit rates [1]