Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to expire this week, alongside other factors such as MLF expirations and government bond issuances, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Liquidity Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted reverse repo operations totaling 4.384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while the total reverse repos maturing during this period amounted to 6.942 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in September, with analysts predicting that funding rates will likely continue to operate at low levels with minimal fluctuations due to supportive monetary policy and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 2: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is characterized by increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly as fiscal spending typically accelerates towards the end of the month, which may provide some support to the liquidity environment [6][7]. - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive funds to reallocate across various asset classes, while the end-of-quarter credit issuance may be more pronounced than in previous years, potentially amplifying liquidity fluctuations [7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 255.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan on the day [1][10] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor down by 0.10 basis points to 1.3140%, and the 7-day Shibor down by 0.70 basis points to 1.4310% [1][3] - The interbank pledged repo market saw fluctuations, with the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rising slightly, while DR007 and R007 rates decreased [3][7] Group 2 - The funding environment on September 2 was characterized as balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates around 1.45% and 7-day rates also near 1.45% [7][10] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was reported at 119.36 billion yuan, with 72 issues on the day [7][8] - The sentiment in the primary market for certificates of deposit improved compared to the previous day, with slight increases in rates across various maturities [8][10] Group 3 - The central bank reported a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan through Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) in August [10][11] - Zheshang Bank announced a capital increase of 999.4 million yuan for its subsidiary, Zhejiang Zhiyin Financial Leasing Co., increasing its stake from 51.00% to 54.04% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market is a crucial hub in the macro - economy, connecting monetary policy, financial markets, and the real economy. Analyzing the capital market helps reflect the financing environment, assist in pricing regulation, and provide early - warning of risks [4]. - The capital market is a key driver of the bond market's trend. Its tightness, structural changes, and related policies affect the bond market from aspects such as supply - demand, yield, and investor expectations. Different capital environments require corresponding adjustments to bond market investment strategies [5]. - This year, China's economy has shown a moderate recovery. Monetary policy has maintained a moderately loose tone but with dynamic adjustments. The bond market has shown high volatility along with the capital market and multiple factors. In the future, official statements indicate a caring attitude towards the capital market, and liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant to support the bond market, but the scope for further loosening may be limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 What is the Capital Market? - The capital market is a key link in the macro - economic system, comprehensively reflecting the total supply - demand relationship of funds. It can be understood from narrow and broad perspectives, and the two are linked through the "finance - real economy" cycle [10]. - The capital market reflects the transmission effect of monetary policy from the financial system to the real economy, forms the pricing basis for assets, is an important indicator for observing the real - economy financing environment, and affects market risk preference and systemic risks [14][15]. 3.2 Capital Market Analysis Framework 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Perspective - Supply involves policy - driven liquidity injection and credit creation. The central bank injects base money into the banking system through policy tools, and the banking system creates broad money through credit creation [19][20][23]. - Demand is related to various economic entities. The financing activities of the private sector, financial markets, and the government jointly determine the total scale and structural characteristics of capital demand [24]. 3.2.2 Policy Perspective - Monetary policy is the core driver of capital supply and demand. Its goals determine the direction of capital market changes, and a variety of policy tools precisely regulate the total amount and structure of capital to achieve dynamic balance [26]. - The transmission effect of monetary policy on the capital market can be understood from the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, it affects the total amount of bank - system funds and credit creation; on the demand side, it affects the real - economy's financing demand and expectations [31]. 3.2.3 Tracking Indicators - Quantity indicators focus on the total amount of circulating funds in the market, including base money scale, broad money supply, social financing scale, and bank - system liquidity level [32]. - Price indicators reflect changes in capital supply - demand and costs, mainly tracking different interest rates. The differences between different interest rates can also convey structural signals [41][42]. - Quantity and price indicators are inter - related, and special time points, affected by seasonal and policy factors, are also important dimensions for analyzing capital supply - demand changes [48][49]. 3.3 Capital Market and Bond Market 3.3.1 How the Capital Market Affects the Bond Market - The tightness of the capital market directly affects the supply - demand and pricing of the bond market; structural changes in the capital market cause differentiation within the bond market; and related regulatory policies affect market expectations of the bond market [54]. - Historically, the cyclical fluctuations of the bond market have been closely related to changes in the capital market. For example, in 2013, a tightened capital market triggered bond - market risks; in 2016, financial de - leveraging led to a downward adjustment in the bond market [55]. 3.3.2 Bond Market Strategies Adjusted According to Capital Tightness - In a loose capital environment, long - term interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds can be increased, and leverage can be moderately added; in a tight capital environment, the duration should be shortened, and leverage should be reduced [57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook 3.4.1 Fluctuations in the Bond Market and Capital Market Due to Multiple Factors - The capital market has evolved from a tight - balance to a moderately loose state. The bond market has shown high volatility this year, with downward adjustments in the early stage, a shock - recovery in the middle, and increased fluctuations in the policy observation period [64][72][73]. 3.4.2 Expected Reasonable and Abundant Liquidity - Official statements indicate a caring attitude towards the capital market, and liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant to support the bond market. However, the scope for further loosening of the capital market may be limited [77].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as multiple factors contribute to a funding gap at the beginning of September, although the overall funding rates remain stable and are expected to continue in a "low and stable" manner [1][5]. Group 1: Funding Gap and Central Bank Operations - The central bank has conducted reverse repos totaling 4,384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while 6,942 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,558 billion yuan [3]. - On September 1, the central bank conducted a 1,827 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo at a rate of 1.40%, with 2,884 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 1,057 billion yuan [2]. - On September 2, the central bank conducted a 2,557 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo at the same rate, with 4,058 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - Despite the pressures from maturing funds, the short-term liquidity has not shown significant volatility, with the overnight Shibor rate decreasing by 1.6 basis points to 1.315% on September 1 [3]. - The Shibor rates for various tenors showed mixed trends, with the overnight Shibor at 1.314% and the 7-day Shibor at 1.431%, both showing slight declines [4]. - Analysts expect that the funding rates will likely remain low and stable due to the central bank's supportive policies and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 3: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is expected to see increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly due to heightened bank liquidity demands and cash preparation needs ahead of holidays [6]. - The capital market's performance is a significant factor to monitor, as a strong equity market may drive funds to reallocate across various assets [6]. - The combination of government bond supply, maturing medium- and long-term liquidity, and the expiration of certificates of deposit may amplify funding volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a strong performance in the equity market, which is boosting market risk appetite and may continue to drive fund reallocation across various asset classes [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - In early September, the focus on liquidity in the financial market has intensified, with over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - Despite the central bank's net withdrawal operations, overall funding rates remained stable, indicating market expectations for future central bank policies and fiscal spending [1][4] - The central bank's operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan over the first two days of September due to a larger amount of reverse repos maturing than the amount operated [2][3] Group 2: Funding Pressure - The upcoming month of September will see significant maturities, including 30 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos and 30 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [3] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing from September 1 to September 5 is 22.731 billion yuan, indicating increasing funding pressure [2][3] Group 3: Interest Rates and Liquidity - Funding rates are expected to maintain a "low and stable" trend despite the pressures from multiple maturities and supply factors [4] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend in early September, with the overnight Shibor falling to 1.314% and the seven-day Shibor to 1.431% [3] - Analysts expect that the funding environment will remain reasonably ample, supported by central bank policies and increased fiscal spending [4][5] Group 4: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September typically sees a seasonal increase in funding demand due to quarter-end liquidity needs and pre-holiday cash requirements [5][6] - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive further fund reallocation across asset classes [6] - Non-seasonal factors, such as government bond supply and maturing deposits, may also amplify funding volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond ETF showing a marginal increase, while other government bond futures are mostly stable or slightly down [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) rose by 0.03%, while the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2512) decreased by 0.01% to 116.88 yuan, with a trading volume of 23,417 contracts and a total open interest of 124,472 contracts [1]. - The yields on major government bonds have slightly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.7710%, and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.2 basis points to 2.016% [1]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Market Outlook - The 30-year government bond ETF has seen significant inflows, surpassing 30 billion yuan in total size as of September 1, with an average daily trading volume of 8.4 billion yuan this year [2]. - The market outlook for September indicates a balanced and loose funding environment, with expectations of continued low interest rates due to increased fiscal spending and central bank support [2]. Group 3: Product Features - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading, which allows investors to capitalize on short-term price movements and adjust portfolio duration [3][4]. - This ETF serves as a flexible cash management tool and is suitable for both short-term trading and long-term investment strategies in a low-interest-rate environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182.7 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan on the same day due to the maturity of 288.4 billion yuan in reverse repos [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The operation interest rate for the 7-day reverse repo was set at 1.40% [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 1.60 basis points to 1.3150%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 7.20 basis points to 1.4380% [2][1]. - The weighted average rates for various repo agreements showed a decline, with DR001 and R001 down by 1.7 basis points and 6.20 basis points, respectively [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The funding environment was described as balanced throughout the day, with overnight rates fluctuating around 1.45% and 7-day rates around 1.45%-1.46% [9]. - On September 1, 27 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, totaling 23.91 billion yuan, indicating a generally subdued trading sentiment in the secondary market [10]. - The yield curve showed some variations, with the 1-year and 9-month rates differing by 0.5 basis points, reflecting a widening trend compared to the previous week [10]. Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China initiated a pilot program to transparently display the comprehensive financing costs for corporate loans, aiming to provide a clearer picture of the actual annualized rates faced by businesses [13]. - At a mid-year performance meeting, a senior executive from China Merchants Bank noted a gradual improvement in retail customer risk appetite, particularly towards equity assets, influenced by a low-interest-rate environment and a recovering capital market [13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts from Huaxi Securities indicated that the impact of government bond repayments on the funding environment would be limited, with seasonal factors likely to dominate the market dynamics [14].

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a relatively loose liquidity stance, with expectations for September liquidity to remain reasonably ample due to accelerated fiscal spending [1] - In September, there is a significant liquidity gap, with 1.6 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity maturing, including 1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos, 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos, and 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF [1] - Government bond net financing is approximately 1.43 trillion yuan, and tax payments are expected to be around 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a tighter liquidity environment compared to August [1] Group 2 - Seasonal disturbances in liquidity are expected to increase in September, with heightened demand for liquidity at the end of the month due to banks and businesses preparing for holidays [2] - Fiscal spending typically accelerates in the last month of the quarter, which may provide some support to the liquidity environment, particularly in the final days of September [2] - The initial liquidity disturbance in September is primarily due to a large amount of public market maturities, but a self-adjusting loosening of liquidity is anticipated, supported by fiscal spending [2] Group 3 - The strong performance of the capital markets is a key factor to monitor in September, with non-seasonal factors potentially amplifying liquidity fluctuations [3] - The equity market's strength and increased market risk appetite may drive funds to reallocate across various assets, while the characteristics of credit issuance at the end of the quarter may be more pronounced this year [3] - The central bank's monetary policy remains loose, but there is an increased uncertainty in the liquidity environment due to the emphasis on preventing fund diversion and the removal of certain statements regarding government bond trading [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the liquidity and institutional behavior in the fixed - income market. It shows that the funds remain loose, and the leverage ratio has slightly increased. The overnight fund prices have declined, while the seven - day fund prices are volatile. The central bank has injected funds to support the cross - month liquidity. The yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) have different trends, and the net financing of CDs continues to be negative with a shortened average issuance term. The net issuance of government bonds will increase next week, and the net payment will decrease. The inter - bank leverage ratio has slightly risen this week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - Overnight fund prices have declined, and seven - day fund prices are volatile. R001 closed at 1.42% (previous value: 1.45%), DR001 at 1.33% (previous value: 1.41%), R007 at 1.52% (previous value: 1.48%), and DR007 at 1.52% (previous value: 1.47%). The spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 11.58bp. The 6M national and joint - stock bank bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.80% (previous value: 0.59%) [1]. - The central bank injected funds to support the cross - month liquidity. This week, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 227.31 billion yuan, with 207.7 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 19.61 billion yuan. MLF injection was 60 billion yuan, with 30 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 30 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit - The yields of CDs have different trends. The 3M yield decreased by 1.00bp to 1.54%, the 6M yield increased by 0.04bp to 1.61%, and the 1Y yield decreased by 0.50bp to 1.66%. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 narrowed by 3.82bp to 14.29bp [2]. - The net financing of CDs continues to be negative, and the average issuance term has shortened. This week, the net financing of CDs was - 19.47 billion yuan (previous value: - 24.55 billion yuan). The 1 - year CD issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.67%, 1.67%, 1.71%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of + 0bp, - 0.80bp, - 3.68bp, and + 4.40bp compared to the previous values. The weighted average issuance term this week was 6.0M (previous value: 6.5M), with 3M CDs issued at 10.5 billion yuan, 6M at 19.87 billion yuan, and 1Y at 7.17 billion yuan [2]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds will increase, and the net payment will decrease. This week, the net issuance of national bonds was - 23.71 billion yuan, and that of local bonds was 24.36 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 0.65 billion yuan and a total net payment of 19.93 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance of national bonds is 11.98 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 3.67 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 15.65 billion yuan and a total net payment of - 0.79 billion yuan [3]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio has slightly risen this week. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was 7.07 trillion yuan (previous value: 7.13 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 108.78% (previous value: 108.42%) [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying the "line of least resistance" in the market, suggesting that the most challenging aspect is often the simplest: waiting for the right moment to act [1] - It outlines different strategies based on market conditions: buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market, and either holding cash or engaging in short-term trading during a sideways market [1] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a significant net injection of 421.7 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment at the end of the month [3][6] - The overnight funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.33% and DR007 at approximately 1.52% [4] - The bond market showed a slight decline in long-term yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.79% and slightly decreasing to around 1.78% [6][7] - Historical data indicates that the average annual return on government bonds from 2010 to 2023 was 4.1%, with a projected return of 9.3% for 2024, while the current year's return is only 0.3% [7]