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铝锭:金九下游开工改善,警惕长假风险,成材:重心下移偏弱运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:41
晨报 铝锭 成材:重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭:金九下游开工改善 警惕长假风险 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 从业资格号:F03127144 投资咨询号:Z0020161 电话:021-20857653 2025 年 9 月 30 日 后期关注/风险因素:关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情 况、消费释放情况。 重要声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料,我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更,我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考,投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址:北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻 ...
中国汽车流通协会:2025年9月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.5%
智通财经网· 2025-09-30 02:32
从区域指数情况看:9月全国总指数为54.5%,北区指数为55.2%,东区指数为52.7%,西区指数为49.3%,南区指数为 61.9%。 智通财经APP获悉,9月30日,中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA显示,2025 年9月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.5%,同比上升0.5个百分点,环比下降2.5个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯 线之上,汽车流通行业景气度有所下降。 9月,多地汽车以旧换新补贴政策出现暂停、申领规则调整或门槛收紧(如江苏、贵州、湖南、安徽等),对短期需求 释放有一定抑制作用。但开学季家庭购车、婚庆及自驾需求集中释放,经销商季末冲量促销和地方车展集客,显著提 升了订单转化效率。国庆长假临近,分流部分消费者购车延迟至假期,一定程度上影响了市场表现。 总体来看,"金九"成色基本符合预期。地方秋季车展密集举办叠加各地促消费政策持续发力,有效带动9月下半月订单 及销量显著提升。本次调查显示,54.8%的经销商反馈新车销量未达预期目标,符合或超过预期的经销商占比为 45.2%。综合预测,9月乘用车终端销量预计约为220万辆。 目前,经销商面临客流增长乏力、价格倒挂持 ...
有色金属板块活跃走强 精艺股份涨超8%
国海证券认为,短期来看,美联储如期降息,且仍有进一步降息预期;有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出 台,提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工率仍在持续回升中,库存拐点基本出现,关注"金九银十"旺季 机会。当前低位的库存水平,以及铝水转化率进一步提升预期,叠加需求持续回升,铝价或有更强表 现。而氧化铝方面,近期有几内亚铝土矿供应扰动,以及国内氧化铝运行产能变化,价格波动放大;考 虑长期氧化铝产能增长,远期价格将维持在较低水平。长期来看,铝行业长期供给增量有限,而需求仍 有增长点,行业或将维持高景气。 9月30日早盘,有色金属板块活跃走强,截至发稿,精艺股份涨超8%,江西铜业涨超7%,兴业银锡、 白银有色涨超6%,锌业股份、云南铜业、株冶集团、罗平锌电等涨超5%。 ...
华东房企推盘积极性高,开盘项目数量显著增长
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-30 02:01
Market Overview - The enthusiasm for property launches has increased, with 79 projects in key cities of East China, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, offering 6,259 units, a month-on-month increase of 87.5% [1] - In Shanghai, 31 projects launched a total of 3,429 units, with over 70% of the offerings being entry-level and upgrade products [2] Shanghai Highlights - The Bund Rui Fu project launched on September 14, 2025, with 119 units sold at an average price of 147,800 yuan per square meter, achieving a 100% sales rate on the opening day [5][7] - The Zhongjian Jiu Shang Lang Chen project launched on September 21, 2025, with 140 units sold at an average price of 146,800 yuan per square meter, also achieving a 100% sales rate [8][10] Hangzhou Highlights - Hangzhou's market is experiencing a seasonal uptick, with 45 projects launching 2,437 units and an average absorption rate of 64% [12] - The Greentown Lixiangting project launched on August 26, 2025, with 94 units sold at an average price of 54,104 yuan per square meter, achieving a 100% sales rate [16][18] Suzhou Highlights - In Suzhou, three projects launched a total of 393 units, with a focus on new developments [24] - The Longhu Dongwu Yuanzhu project launched on September 20, 2025, with 147 units at an average price of 34,000 yuan per square meter, achieving a 48% sales rate [27][29] Upcoming Projects - Several notable projects are scheduled for launch in the coming month across Shanghai and Hangzhou, with varying price points and product types [38][40]
聚乙烯“银十”值得期待
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-29 23:33
近期,美国原油库存下降,同时市场担心俄罗斯能源供应受限,油价整体震荡反弹,WTI原油期货价格 站上65美元/桶大关,油制聚乙烯再次出现亏损情况。截至9月29日当周,在聚乙烯4种原材料工艺中, 除了煤制工艺仍有利润之外,其他工艺均处于亏损状态,占比最高的油制聚乙烯亏损超过500元/吨, 成本支撑作用有望体现。 目前聚乙烯基本面多空交织,虽然需求端利多并未兑现,但是计划外检修装置增多,供应端压力也明显 缓解,基本抵消需求端利空。展望后市,国庆假期后需求端仍有较大改善空间,成本支撑也逐渐增强, 预计聚乙烯价格继续下行空间不大。另外,化工"反内卷"政策有望落地,届时聚乙烯有望逐渐改变弱势 局面。 三季度,受"反内卷"推动,商品价格整体止跌反弹。不过,聚乙烯表现欠佳,尤其是进入"金九"传统旺 季,需求未有实质性改善,价格不涨反跌,最低一度逼近7000元/吨大关。虽然需求表现不及预期,但 是供应压力也未体现,聚乙烯价格未出现深跌,整体呈现弱势震荡走势。 "金九银十"是聚乙烯传统需求旺季。目前,旺季已过半,但聚乙烯旺季特征并不明显。今年聚乙烯农膜 需求普遍推迟,尤其是国庆节长假临近,下游备货积极性不高,仅维持保障节假日生产 ...
大宗商品周度报告:流动性出现扰动商品短期或震荡运行-20250929
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 13:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]
深圳二手房录得量呈现波动调整 市场期待国庆长假楼市“成色”
Group 1 - The introduction of new housing policies in Shenzhen on September 5 has led to an increase in market activity, with a notable rise in both new and second-hand property transactions despite a slight decline in second-hand sales due to typhoon weather [1][2] - As of September 28, the total number of new residential units sold in Shenzhen reached 1,482, while second-hand residential transactions totaled 4,323, indicating a robust market despite some fluctuations [1][2] - Real estate agents report a significant increase in decision-making speed and confidence among buyers with clear demands, although prices in the second-hand market remain relatively stable [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in second-hand housing prices over the past four years has made homeownership more accessible to previously unaffordable buyers, driving up transaction volumes [2] - The new policies are expected to create a positive cycle in the housing market, facilitating the transition from second-hand to new homes, particularly for buyers looking to upgrade [2] - The recent policy changes have led to a 35% increase in new home purchases in the 23 days following the policy implementation compared to the previous 23 days, and a 75% increase compared to the same period in August [2] Group 3 - Nationally, the new housing market has remained stable since 2025, but there has been a slight decline in sales since the second quarter, with September showing signs of recovery due to improved supply [3] - The second-hand housing market continues to operate on a "price for volume" basis, with key cities seeing a year-on-year increase in transaction numbers for the first three quarters [3]
金价连涨创新高带动品牌金店调价,门店成交并不踊跃
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 10:06
金价高企下还会有金九银十吗? "基于金价波动,我们会密切留意及评估,并适时作出价格调整。"周大福方面今日回复记者。 今年三四月,周大福也调整了一轮部分产品的报价。根据公司方面的反馈,调价是基于过去多个月以来 金价的变化,为了支持毛利保持韧性。 这两年国际金价一路上扬,水涨船高之下,不少连锁品牌金店的一口价产品皆有不同程度的调价。 "去年国庆节金价还在8字打头,今年挂牌的克价已经破1100元了。"记者日前走访沪上一些金店时从一 些柜台的销售处了解到。 从最新的挂牌报价来看,9月29日,国内部分黄金珠宝品牌金饰价格继续上涨。具体来看,周生生足金 饰品报价1111元/克,周大福、六福珠宝的足金首饰价格为1108元/克。 金价的一路走高,今年9月下旬开始,周大福、周生生、老庙等国内主流的黄金珠宝品牌商就开始酝酿 上调"一口价"黄金饰品的价格。 今年年初曾引发排队购金热潮的老铺黄金(06181.HK)从去年开始已经涨过多轮。可查询的公开信息 显示,该品牌旗下产品分别在2024年3月、9月进行过两次涨价。今年2月、8月老铺黄金再度上调了黄金 产品价格。 前述多家金店销售向记者表示,下个月就要涨价,最近还有每克立减的活动, ...
上海楼市新政满月:豪宅“日光”,二手房以价换量
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-29 09:20
"二手房市场情绪也被带动起来,咨询量、带看量明显反弹。但上海二手房整体挂牌量还是在高位运行,因此市场还是采用以价换量的策略,价格继续下 行。"卢文曦称。 "沪六条"新政满月,上海楼市出现积极信号。 此前8月25日,上海市住建委、市房屋管理局等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》,涉及符合条件的家庭,外环外购房不限套 数;成年单身按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策;公积金账户可支付首付款;商贷利率不再区分首套和二套;个人住房房产税政策完善等六项具体措施,故 也被业内称为"沪六条"。 从新政落地首月的成交数据来看,政策对市场的提振作用已显现。据安居客监测,8月26日至9月25日,二手房网签成交21127套,环比增长8%;上海新房 网签成交9984套,环比增长37%,两类房源成交量均实现不同幅度的改善。 具体来看,在上海"豪宅热"的加持下,新房市场再现"日光"盛况。9月21日,两大豪宅项目"金陵华庭""中建玖上琅宸"于同日迎来开盘。根据开发商发布 的信息,金陵华庭项目二期首批120套房源及中建玖上琅宸项目首批140套房源均在开盘当日便宣告售罄。 此外,随着限购政策放宽,上海二手房市场逐渐回暖。"网上房地 ...
纸浆数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:31
| | | 2025年9月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5272 | -0. 79% | -0. 83% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5650 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5016 | -0. 87% | -0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | | SP2505 | 5296 | -0. 60% | -0. 71% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4220 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 720 | -2. 78% | | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5884 | -2.75% | | (美元) | 日起等更 | 530 | 510 | 3.92% | 进口成本 ...