Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a strong outlook supported by macroeconomic factors that bolster metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in the copper and aluminum sectors, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, and Minmetals Resources for copper, and China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Tianshan Aluminum, and others for aluminum [3][4]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with recent developments such as the suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the implementation of consumer loan interest subsidies contributing to a bullish outlook for aluminum prices, which have recently surged above 20,800 CNY/ton [7][8]. Industry Overview Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes that the total market capitalization of the non-ferrous metals sector is approximately 360.65 billion CNY, with 125 listed companies [4]. - The sector has shown strong performance over various time frames, with absolute returns of 14.3% over one month, 28.2% over six months, and 52.1% over twelve months [5]. Aluminum Sector - The report indicates that aluminum inventories are increasing, with a notable rise in domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory to 588,000 tons, reflecting a short-term oversupply situation [7]. - Despite the current inventory build-up, the report anticipates that the upcoming peak consumption season ("Golden September and Silver October") and potential supply risks may support aluminum prices [7]. Copper Sector - The report provides insights into copper inventories, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reporting a total of 86,400 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons week-on-week [3]. - The global visible copper inventory stands at 555,000 tons, with a slight increase of 2,458 tons compared to the previous week [3]. Rare Metals - The report emphasizes the rising prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which have increased by 7.01% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from major magnet manufacturers [9]. - Companies in the rare metals sector, such as China Rare Earth and Guangxi Rare Metals, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strategic positioning in the market [9]. Company Performance - China Hongqiao reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 81.04 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit of 12.36 billion CNY, up 35% [7]. - Zhongfu Industrial completed its employee stock ownership plan, indicating strong confidence in future growth, with a total of 329 million shares purchased at an average price of 3.21 CNY per share [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support commodity prices in the near term [1][2]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to the upcoming "golden September and silver October" season, despite some weakness in demand [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly cobalt and lithium, are projected to experience price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to rise in price, driven by central bank gold purchases and changing tariff policies [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices are supported by rising production rates and demand from downstream cable consumption, with the SMM import copper concentrate index showing a slight increase [2][3]. - Aluminum production remains high, but demand is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory [2][21]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages, while lithium prices are also increasing due to tight supply conditions [3]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with a target of breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [4]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5].

Group 1: Tariff Expansion - The U.S. government announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, adding hundreds of derivative products to the tariff list [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce included 407 product codes in the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [2] - The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18, 2025, following a previous announcement to increase tariffs from 25% to 50% [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The expanded tariff range is expected to alter global aluminum trade flows, potentially exacerbating supply-demand tensions in certain markets, particularly in North America [3] - Increased tariffs will raise production costs for downstream industries in the U.S., such as automotive, home appliances, and construction materials, which may lead to weaker consumer data amid low consumer confidence [3] - The expansion of tariffs may impact China's aluminum and aluminum product exports, with a potential decline in exports expected in the fourth quarter [3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Outlook - Recent trends show strong fluctuations in aluminum prices, with the main futures contract hovering around 20,700 yuan/ton [6] - Analysts suggest that while there is a positive macro outlook and expectations of demand recovery during the traditional peak season, the overall aluminum market fundamentals remain weak due to low operating rates in key industries [6][8] - The upcoming peak season may not see robust demand, as reduced subsidies and trade tensions could lead to cautious consumer behavior [8]

Group 1: Market Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a significant adjustment in the real estate market, with only 6 cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new residential property prices, the lowest since the implementation of major policies last September [1] - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while the sales area and sales revenue of new residential properties fell by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, highlighting a weakening effect of the "price for volume" strategy [1] - The area of new housing starts saw a substantial decline of 19.4%, further exacerbating market pessimism [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Cities - Shanghai stands out as the only first-tier city with a continuous month-on-month increase in new residential property prices for 10 consecutive months, with July sales reaching 31.4 billion yuan, where luxury properties contributed 41% of total sales [4] - In contrast, Beijing's market remains weak despite some luxury projects boosting sales, while Guangzhou has not seen any month-on-month price increases for 10 months, and Shenzhen continues to experience a widening decline [4] - Among 31 major second-tier cities, only Urumqi and Changchun reported month-on-month price increases, with cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou also facing declines [4] Group 3: Policy Responses - Despite efforts from central and local governments to stabilize the market, the response has been lukewarm, with policies such as expanding affordable housing supply in population inflow cities failing to reverse the downward trend [5] - Beijing's recent easing of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road did not address more impactful measures like core area restrictions or mortgage rates, leading to perceptions of passive rather than proactive policy adjustments [5] - The recovery of market confidence faces multiple challenges, including limited effectiveness of the "price for volume" strategy in the second-hand market and weak demand in the new housing market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is currently characterized by high supply and weak demand, with the price breaking through support levels and falling. The short - term weakness is difficult to reverse, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures price has broken through support levels and fallen. The current situation is high supply and weak demand, with port inventories accelerating accumulation. Traditional downstream industries are generally in a loss - making state, and port MTO plants have shut down. Methanol has become a weak variety in the sector, with the basis weakening and the inter - monthly spread at a low level in the same period [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has gradually bottomed out and is expected to increase marginally, reaching 82.4% this week, a 0.97% increase from the previous week. Overseas operating rates have returned to seasonal highs [11]. - **Demand**: Port olefin plants are operating at a low load, and the domestic olefin operating rate has declined slightly. Traditional demand operating rates are gradually rising, and improvement is expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period, and the current situation remains weak [11]. - **Valuation**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level. Port MTO plants have shut down, and port olefin profits are continuously rising. The price ratio between methanol and related varieties is at a medium - to - high level, indicating that methanol is not undervalued [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 1.0218 million tons, a 96,300 - ton increase from the previous week. Enterprise inventories are 295,600 tons, a 1,900 - ton increase from the previous week, and are at a low level in recent years [11]. - **Market Logic**: Methanol's own fundamentals are weak. Even though coal prices are strong, it is still difficult to break out of the downward pattern, with short - term supply increasing and demand weak [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period [20]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a high level compared to the same period [38]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are increasing, and enterprise inventories are at a low level in recent years [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Capacity**: In 2025, new methanol production capacity in the northwest region amounts to 7.45 million tons, including projects from Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Gansu Liuhua, Xinjiang Zhongtai New Materials, etc [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate has gradually bottomed out and is rising, and the overseas operating rate has returned to seasonal highs [11][52]. - **Import Volume**: Import volume is expected to increase gradually as overseas plants operate at high rates [11]. - **Arrival Volume**: Data on arrival volumes in different regions are presented in relevant charts [65][68]. - **International Price Difference**: Various international price differences and domestic freight rates are analyzed through charts [71][76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Demand Forecast**: Consumption and end - of - period inventory data are presented in relevant charts [80]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate has declined slightly, and the profitability of related plants has shown some changes. There are also analyses of relevant spreads [83][93]. - **PP Production Profits**: Production profits of different PP production processes are presented in relevant charts [91]. - **Downstream Industries**: The operating rates and profits of downstream industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and dichloromethane, as well as downstream inventories, are analyzed through charts [104][107]. - **Related Product Price Ratios**: Price ratios between methanol and related products are presented in relevant charts [111]. 3.6. Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Data on option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility are presented in relevant charts [115][117]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map are provided [120][122].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a cautious phase influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic factors, with gold prices fluctuating between $3330 and $3350, while the outlook remains bullish due to increasing demand and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The second half of the year is expected to see heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Key supporting factors for gold's bullish outlook include tariff increases, global economic slowdown, easing U.S. monetary policy, and a persistently weak dollar [2]. - Recent economic data has shown mixed signals, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although inflation data has tempered these expectations [2]. Market Analysis - The recent U.S.-Russia summit yielded no concrete agreements, leading to limited volatility in gold prices, which remained within a narrow range [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with the market currently in a downward C-wave and indicators suggesting increased selling pressure [3][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3350-$3353, while key support is at $3330, with further potential declines if this level is breached [5]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on rebounds near $3348-$3350 and long positions on pullbacks near $3310-$3315, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing significant regional differentiation, characterized by a "strong inland and weak port" scenario, contrasting sharply with the "strong port and weak inland" situation observed in the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current methanol price gap between inland and port regions has narrowed, with the ex-factory price in the northwest exceeding 2100 yuan/ton, while port prices have dropped to around 2350 yuan/ton, resulting in a price difference of 230-250 yuan/ton [1]. - The northwest region is facing low inventory levels and strong demand due to maintenance of coal-to-olefin facilities, while port areas are experiencing rapid inventory accumulation, exceeding 200,000 tons as of August, with total coastal inventory surpassing 1,100,000 tons [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Context - In the first half of the year, the methanol market was characterized by a "strong port and weak inland" dynamic, primarily due to low imports from Iran and a significant drop in port inventories [2]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to maintenance of port-based methanol production facilities and an increase in imports, leading to a substantial rise in port inventories [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Current market conditions are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and regional supply-demand imbalances, with rising coal prices supporting methanol costs, while declining crude oil prices weaken downstream product prices [3]. - The inland coal chemical enterprises are facing rising production costs, while coastal downstream enterprises are experiencing significant losses, leading to weak demand and low acceptance of high-priced domestic methanol [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to maintain regional differentiation, with stable operating rates and a slight strength in the inland market, while coastal markets may continue to accumulate inventory due to increased imports [4]. - The key factors influencing future price trends will be actual demand during the peak season and inventory accumulation, with potential buying opportunities following market corrections [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is neutral; the recommendation for the PL01 - 02 inter - period is reverse arbitrage; there is no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - side start - up has increased slightly month - on - month. Although the maintenance plan of Shandong Zhenhua previously supported prices, the new production capacity of a 280,000 - ton K - COT device in Shandong was released, and the Tianhong PDH device is expected to restart. With the continuous increase in supply, the propylene price continued to be weakly sorted. The downstream start - up showed a mixed trend. The profit of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and its start - up also declined. The start - up of butanol decreased significantly, while the start - up of octanol increased rapidly. The start - up of the main downstream PP increased slightly, but the purchasing enthusiasm was not strong, and the start - up of the PP downstream was also weak. Overall, the downstream demand for propylene provided a small - scale, phased support, but the resilience was still insufficient. Later, attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of the main downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The cost of crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down the propane price, resulting in a downward shift in the cost support for propylene [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the propylene basis in East China and North China, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [7][10][13] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It covers figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refineries [18][25][32] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 3.4 Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][56][65] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report has figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [1][2][3]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 1.75%. Investors await the US - Russia summit. Short - term, focus on buying out - of - the - money options on dips; mid - term, consider short positions after geopolitical risks are priced in [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, Asian fuel oil arrivals are abundant, with weak demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, and the diesel crack spread has declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market faces pressure, and high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are bearish [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The price has stabilized slightly. The import cost and crude oil may drive refinery gas prices down. The market is in low - level oscillation [22]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal (Coke & Coking Coal)**: Both coke and coking coal prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - making maintains a high level in the off - season. The prices are volatile in the short term [15][16]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US July PPI data suppressed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. With the US - Russia summit, the market is volatile, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The LME copper recovered some losses but faced resistance. The US July PPI increase was significant. The SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The aluminum market is in a slight inventory - building state, with the peak likely in August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental supply - increase and demand - weakness suggest a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term. The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 129,200 tons. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The refinery's maintenance and restart coexist, with insufficient demand. The short - covering support limits the downside. Hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The fundamental situation is poor. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel decreased. Enter short positions as the rebound nears its end [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices fell further. Consider bargain - hunting for short - term long positions [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly oscillating. The iron - making output remains high, and the manganese ore price rose slightly. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follows coking coal [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly oscillating. The iron - making output is slightly down. The supply increased, and the inventory slightly rose. The price follows manganese silicon and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the inventory increased. The spot index is falling, and the futures price may adjust [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the industry profit is poor. The price has some resilience [5]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental supply - increase and demand - weakness suggest a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term. The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 129,200 tons. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Propylene supply increased, and the market is bearish. Polyethylene producers are more likely to raise prices. Polypropylene demand is weak, and the market is under pressure [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak state, with increased inventory. Caustic soda is strong, with reduced inventory. The short - term price of caustic soda may rise, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded. PTA's operating rate is low, and PX's supply - demand is expected to improve. The downstream demand is gradually improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The supply is temporarily tight, and the demand is showing signs of improvement [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillated. The domestic production increased slightly, and the import decreased. Consider trading the monthly spread [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly, but there is no strong upward driver [26]. - **Methanol**: The import is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The inland market is relatively strong. Pay attention to the downstream demand in the peak season [24]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate without new positive factors [23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The USDA August report was positive for US soybeans. The domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be around 10 million tons from August to October. Be cautious about going long on soybean meal and look for opportunities on dips [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil declined with the fall of rapeseed oil. Be cautious about the adjustment risk of palm oil. Pay attention to the impact of position changes on prices in the short term [36]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of rapeseed products declined. In the medium - term, the rapeseed supply may be tight. Maintain a bullish view on rapeseed products [37]. - **Corn**: The USDA August report was negative for US corn. The domestic corn supply is sufficient, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton planting area and output were significantly reduced. The domestic cotton inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is stable. Consider buying on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar production forecast is negative. The domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines [44]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is moving from near - term to far - term contracts. The egg price needs to fall to reduce production capacity. Pay attention to the spot price, peak - season demand, and cold - storage egg release [41]. - **Lumber**: The price is in a correction. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. The spot price has support. Monitor whether the futures price can stop falling [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price rose. The port inventory is high, and the supply is relatively loose. Consider buying on dips as the demand may improve in the peak season [46]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market fluctuated. The market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors and paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures declined. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is in a competitive downward trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]