Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains the view that the Federal Reserve's decision to restart rate cuts in September does not indicate the beginning of a continuous rate-cutting cycle [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Outlook - The neutral interest rate has risen to around 3%, leaving only 4-5 potential rate cuts available [1] - Despite market expectations for rate cuts in October and December, caution is advised regarding these predictions due to the resilience of the U.S. economy and significant short-term inflation risks [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, which is viewed as a typical preemptive rate cut [1] - The current labor market, while showing signs of slowing, remains manageable, and the restrictive nature of policy rates has significantly eased compared to the previous year [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The cooling of employment is primarily attributed to immigration policy restrictions, leading to a weak supply-demand balance, with low unemployment reflecting a "weak equilibrium" [1] - A significant rate cut is unlikely to result in a rapid improvement in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, indicating a preventive approach rather than a reactive one [1][3] - Preventive rate cuts are aimed at increasing market liquidity and generally benefit the stock market, while reactive cuts indicate significant economic issues and tend to favor bonds and gold [3][5] - Historical data shows that during previous reactive rate cuts, A-shares experienced significant declines, while preventive cuts have historically led to stock market gains [3][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has reached a new historical high following preventive rate cuts, with expectations of continued upward movement due to improved market liquidity [5] - Bond prices are expected to rise as yields decrease, driven by investor anticipation of ongoing rate cuts [5] - Gold prices are likely to strengthen as the dollar weakens, with gold already having increased by 40% this year [6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market shows no consistent pattern during U.S. preventive rate cuts, but recent trends indicate a growing influence from mainland policies rather than U.S. monetary policy [8][10] - The A-share market is currently approaching the 3900-point mark, with the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut being uncertain due to prior price adjustments [8][10] - The future performance of A-shares will largely depend on domestic economic policies and the pace of economic recovery, with external factors playing a lesser role [10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25bps[1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts expected in 2025, but only one in 2026, suggesting a potential hawkish shift[1] - The Fed's decision is characterized as a "risk-management cut," emphasizing a cautious approach rather than a preemptive one[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed acknowledges a slowdown in the job market, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up but remaining low[3] - Inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed noting that inflation has moved up and remains elevated[3] - The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows an upward revision of GDP growth for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market pricing indicates expectations for a 25bps cut in October and December[8] - The market has priced in a total of 75bps of cuts across three meetings in 2025, but Powell's comments have tempered expectations for further cuts[8] - The S&P and Nasdaq experienced volatility, while the Dow Jones rose, and the dollar strengthened post-announcement[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent interest rate cut does not signify the end of rate cuts, as the median forecast indicates two more cuts in 2025, which will continue to support the Hong Kong stock market and its technology sector [1] - The current economic situation in the U.S. shows a weak job market but relatively high inflation, leading the market to define this rate cut as a "preemptive cut," which is different from a "rescue cut" that occurs in deep economic downturns [1] - Historically, preemptive rate cuts have been beneficial for stock assets, with the Hong Kong stock market showing greater elasticity, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to have significant upside potential [1] Group 2 - The influx of foreign capital is a significant driver for the Hong Kong technology sector, alongside strong internal drivers such as the cooling competition in industries like food delivery and automotive [1] - The narrative surrounding AI has become a central focus for the market, providing a solid foundation for the future growth of the Hong Kong technology sector [1] - Relevant ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101), which covers the entire technology industry chain, and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), which focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Lepu Medical - Lepu Medical is a leading cardiovascular company in China, with a diverse product matrix. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.43%, and a net profit of 691 million yuan, down 0.91% year-on-year [3] - The company is strategically expanding into innovative drugs for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases through its subsidiary, Minwei Biotech, which focuses on obesity and type 2 diabetes treatments. As of August 2025, several products are in various clinical trial phases [3] - Lepu Medical is also actively developing its aesthetic medicine segment, with new products like dermal fillers and hyaluronic acid injections receiving approval, indicating strong growth potential in the non-medical insurance market [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Superwin International Holdings - Superwin International Holdings has over 20 years of experience in elastic fabric, with a stable management team. The company generates 55.4% of its revenue from sports fabrics and is well-positioned to capture more orders due to its mature overseas production capacity [6][7] - The company is expected to see net profits of 590 million, 640 million, and 700 million HKD from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from a rebalancing of supply and demand and moderate raw material prices [5][6] - Superwin has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, with a dividend yield exceeding 9% for the past four years, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8] Group 3: Industry Insights - Biopharmaceuticals - The biopharmaceutical industry is witnessing a shift towards innovative drug development, particularly in cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, driven by companies like Lepu Medical [3] - The market for aesthetic medicine is expanding, with increasing regulatory approvals for new products, indicating a growing consumer demand for non-traditional medical treatments [3] Group 4: Industry Insights - Textile and Apparel - The sportswear segment is outpacing other apparel categories, with rising demand for elastic, breathable, and antibacterial fabrics benefiting suppliers like Superwin International [8] - The company is positioned to leverage its established relationships with major sports brands, which have been in collaboration for over five years, ensuring a steady flow of orders [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the FOMC meeting, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the Shanghai copper futures price oscillated. The macro - environment showed that the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The previous loose trading for copper may have ended, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The fundamentals were in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provided bottom support, and in the short - term, copper prices oscillated strongly under the loose background. The subsequent upward cycle needed the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract was 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market was in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply - side factors such as the potential restart of a mining company in Guinea and a possible strike, as well as production cuts in Henan due to environmental protection, provided short - term support, but the overall supply was in excess. The demand was weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term main contract was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro - atmosphere was bullish, and the fundamentals improved moderately. The short - term price was expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. If the demand improvement was less than expected, the price might fall back [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and declined with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the procurement cost of recycled aluminum enterprises was high, which supported the price. The demand showed a mild recovery, and the inventory was still accumulating. The short - term main contract was expected to run in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices were generally strong, but Shanghai zinc was relatively weak due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side saw overseas mines entering the production and resumption cycle, and the smelting profit was repaired. The demand entered the peak season, but the domestic and overseas performance was differentiated. The short - term price might be driven up by the macro - environment, but the upward space was limited. The reference range for the main contract was 21500 - 22500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and the demand was weak. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was difficult to make up for the decline in traditional demand. If the supply in Myanmar recovered smoothly, a short - selling strategy could be considered; otherwise, the price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the running range of 265000 - 285000 [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the macro - environment was weak. The spot trading of refined nickel did not change significantly. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was relatively loose, and the price of nickel - iron was strong. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price decreased slightly, and the market trading was average. The macro - environment overseas was weak after the Fed's interest - rate cut, while domestic policies were positive. The raw material prices were firm, and the supply of nickel - iron increased, but the demand for stainless steel had not significantly increased. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 12800 - 13400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the domestic policies had been digested by the market. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state. The supply increased due to new projects and increased lithium - spodumene processing, and the demand was expected to increase in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main - contract price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in August was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.44 million tons week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The alumina production in August was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.3 million tons week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20950 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production in August was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in August was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The galvanizing开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 0.43 million tons week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price was 270200 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in July decreased by 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHEF inventory increased by 124 tons, and the social inventory increased by 108 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day. The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 400 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 460 tons week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.83 million tons month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.60 million tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.451 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in August was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The lithium carbonate total inventory in August decreased by 366 tons month - on - month, and the downstream inventory increased by 7552 tons month - on - month [15].

——访清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩 图片来源/新华社 ■ 中国经济时报记者 周子勋 美国联邦储备委员会9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次 降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 美联储为什么选择此时降息？此举释放了哪些信号？美联储降息将给全球经济和我国经济带来哪些影响？清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口 金融学院副院长田轩在接受中国经济时报记者采访时就上述问题进行了解答。 降息反映出美联储对经济形势的审慎判断和前瞻性调控意图 中国经济时报：您怎么看美联储此次降息？ 田轩：美联储此次降息是一次典型的"预防式降息"，反映出美联储对当前经济形势的审慎判断和前瞻性调控意图。 从政策背景看，可能源于对通胀压力持续缓解趋势的确认以及对劳动力市场边际走弱的担忧，同时也是对经济增长动能放缓风险的预防性应对。降息体现 了美联储"以数据为导向"的货币政策框架，在通胀可控的前提下，优先保障经济增长的可持续性。25个基点的降息幅度属于温和调控，符合市场预期，既 释放了政策转向的信号，也保留了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but the long-term reduction may not meet prior market expectations [1][2][4]. - The Fed's internal decision-making shows significant divergence, leading to uncertainty in future rate paths [1][4][9]. Economic Projections - The prevailing view is a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although some brokerages warn that excessive monetary easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][4][9]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a lower rate of future cuts than previously expected, with projections of 75 basis points this year and 25 basis points in the following two years [3][10]. Market Reactions - Short-term risk assets are expected to experience increased volatility, while mid-term outlooks remain positive for U.S. equities [3][6]. - The market had already priced in the rate cut, leading to initial gains in bonds and equities followed by corrections [6][10]. Sector Impacts - Sectors such as real estate and manufacturing are anticipated to benefit first from the rate cuts, with a favorable sentiment in A-shares and increased sensitivity in Hong Kong stocks due to improved overseas liquidity [7][8][12]. - The Fed's decision is expected to create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to further easing domestically [2][12]. Divergence in Analyst Opinions - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's approach, with some highlighting a hawkish tone in the risk management narrative, suggesting that continuous rate cuts may not be guaranteed [4][11]. - The Fed's focus on employment risks over inflation risks indicates a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [9][12].

美联储9月18日凌晨如期降息25基点，这一牵动全球市场的举措，即刻引来国内卖方机构密集解读。 截至发稿，已有超过15家券商研究所发布相关研报，"符合预期"成为主流判断，而"10月、12月议息会议有 望各降息25个基点"获得多数认同。 多数券商认为，本次降息标志着美联储新一轮预防式降息周期正式启动，但政策表述与内部决策呈现明显分 歧，未来利率路径仍存变数;对于后续降息空间与节奏，机构普遍预期年内将再降50基点，但中长期降息幅 度可能不及前期市场预期;对美国经济前景的判断呈现分化，软着陆是主流预期，但部分券商警示过度宽松 可能引发类滞胀风险。 | | | 15家券商解读"美联储降息25个基点" | | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 券商 | 主题观点 | | 1 | 招商证券 | 降息指引低于预期 | | 2 | 华泰证券 | 上调降息预测,年内降息次数从2次上调至3次 | | 3 | 中金公司 | 美联储在供给症结下克制降息 | | ব | 中信建投 | 短期落地,中期延续 | | 5 | 中泰证券 | 全面看好非银板块 | | ୧ | 粤开证券 | 为中国货币政策打开操作空间 | | 7 ...

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。根据美联 储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的发言，机构普遍认为，此次降息为"预防式"降息，即美联储并不会进入 持续性的降息周期，而是为了预防潜在风险，前瞻性实施相对温和的降息举措。从历史经验看，"预防 式"降息开启后，全球各类核心资产中，股票资产走势最为强劲，新兴市场有望迎来配置窗口。（上海 证券报） ...