"我们正加快规划建设苏通GIL直流工程、扬镇交直流改造工程等一批项目建设，将江苏沿海的绿电送 至苏南发达地区。"张文嘉说。 绿电发得出，更要有人用、用得好。电力交易大厅屏幕上，绿电交易数据实时跳动。刚刚过去的2025 年，江苏绿电交易量超210亿千瓦时；自2021年全国绿电交易启动以来，江苏绿电交易量年均增长率达 96%。 交汇点讯 刚刚过去的12月，各项重点项目顺利收官：我国离岸最远海上风电项目在江苏全容量并网， 年发电可超28亿千瓦时；29日，江苏国信大丰85万千瓦海上风电项目全部风机实现并网，标志着江苏海 上风电规模化开发迈上新台阶，进一步巩固江苏在全国海上风电装机容量的领先地位。 经济大省挑大梁，江苏正将滔滔海风转化为澎湃绿电—— 截至2025年底，全省海上风电装机已突破1200万千瓦，绿电交易量年均增长96%、接近翻倍，更通 过"绿电专线"直供园区、赋能企业"出海"。迈步行进在"双碳"赛道上，江苏正把丰富的"海风"资源，转 化为高质量发展的绿色动能。 能源转型的大背景下，风电近年已成为绿色低碳发展的核心赛道，肩负着优化能源结构的重要使命。 从2004年中国第一个风力发电特许权项目——如东一期10万千 ...

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 华西证券指出，地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格。本周美军对委内瑞拉的打击引发避险情 绪，短期金价波动有限，但需警惕局势升级风险。长期来看，全球"去美元化"趋势加速，央行和投资者 持续购金，黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向。美国债务总额突破38.5万亿美元，财政赤字高企， 降息趋势下国债利率上涨，体现对债务规模的担忧，看好未来黄金价格。白银方面，ETF资金强劲流 入，全球现货库存紧张，甚至出现交割困难，尽管需求回落，但供应端缺口突出，预计未来几年供需缺 口将持续扩大。宽松周期下工业复苏需求使得白银弹性高于黄金，看好未来白银价格。基本金属方面， 铜作为能源转型关键金属，供给端全球主要矿山事故频发，预计2025Q4供给减少20万吨产量，宏观环 境支撑铜价。铝价方面，铜铝比失调，国内电解铝供给刚性，AI领域爆发式增长占据电力优先级，供 应端扰动待落地，看好铝价补涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - **China**: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - **US**: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - **Alumina**: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].

对能源转型和传统用途都至关重要的铜在2025年飙升42%，创下自2009年以来的最佳年度表现。对美国 潜在进口关税的担忧，已导致美国交易所追踪的库存增加。与此同时，伦敦金属交易所的现货对三个月 期铜价差(cash-to-three-month spread)稳固处于现货溢价(backwardation)状态，这种形态表明近期供应紧 张。 分析师在一份报告中写道，"整体供应短缺，叠加美国关税造成的区域性错配，正在推动铜价上 涨，""全球铜市场在2026年将出现超过10万吨的短缺"。 智通财经获悉，铜价在新年供应趋紧的担忧以及整体市场风险偏好情绪的推动下大幅上涨，逼近历史最 高水平。 伦敦基准铜期货价格大涨约3%，接近上周创下的每吨略低于13,000美元的峰值。对美国潜在关税的担 忧促使交易商加速向该国发货，导致其他地区供应状况趋紧。此外，智利曼托韦德(Mantoverde)矿场罢 工的开始，提醒了在全球需求扩张时期供应所面临的风险。 周一所有基本金属均走强，亚洲股市在科技股上涨的推动下创下历史新高。更广泛来看，投资者正在评 估美国周末拘捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗事件的更广泛影响，包括美国对事关安全和经济增 ...

智通财经APP获悉，铜价在新年供应趋紧的担忧以及整体市场风险偏好情绪的推动下大幅上涨，逼近历 史最高水平。 伦敦基准铜期货价格大涨约3%，接近上周创下的每吨略低于13,000美元的峰值。对美国潜在关税的担 忧促使交易商加速向该国发货，导致其他地区供应状况趋紧。此外，智利曼托韦德(Mantoverde)矿场罢 工的开始，提醒了在全球需求扩张时期供应所面临的风险。 周一所有基本金属均走强，亚洲股市在科技股上涨的推动下创下历史新高。更广泛来看，投资者正在评 估美国周末拘捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗事件的更广泛影响，包括美国对事关安全和经济增长 的核心资源所持的演变立场。 对能源转型和传统用途都至关重要的铜在2025年飙升42%，创下自2009年以来的最佳年度表现。对美国 潜在进口关税的担忧，已导致美国交易所追踪的库存增加。与此同时，伦敦金属交易所的现货对三个月 期铜价差(cash-to-three-month spread)稳固处于现货溢价(backwardation)状态，这种形态表明近期供应紧 张。 分析师在一份报告中写道，"整体供应短缺，叠加美国关税造成的区域性错配，正在推动铜价上 涨，""全球铜市场在2 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 原油 | 专题报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日 原油 专业研究·创造价值 地缘诡谲暗涌 原油溢价仍存 摘 要 2026 年全球原油市场正处于供需基本面与地缘政治风险的深 度博弈期。国际能源署（IEA）预测，全年原油市场日均过剩量将 达 380-409 万桶，占全球需求的 4%，供应过剩格局成为市场运行 主基调。然而，中东、南美、俄乌三大关键区域的地缘局势动荡持 续发酵，形成对供应端的潜在冲击，与供需基本面形成反向拉扯。 中东地区，伊朗社会危机与以伊影子战争升级、红海航运通道安全 风险上升，叠加海湾国家转型期的政策不确定性，构成原油供应的 核心地缘风险点；南美地区，委内瑞拉在美制裁高压下开启对美石 ...

福建中碳是专注锂电池负极包覆沥青、造粒沥青研发制造的高新技术企业，产品广泛应用于动力、消 费、储能类锂电池负极领域，达产后年产值约2.7亿元。企业坐拥多项核心专利，采用国内领先的连续 化生产工艺，产品兼具能耗低、稳定性强的突出优势；同时构建起完善的产品矩阵，产品软化点覆盖 150℃至280℃多个关键牌号，可精准匹配不同应用场景需求，满足客户个性化定制，凭借硬核实力赢得 市场高度认可。 12月29日，坐落于古雷石化园区的福建中碳新材料科技有限公司（下称"福建中碳"）年产2万吨锂电池 负极包覆材料项目核心生产线全流程顺利贯通，成功产出首批高品质产品。这一里程碑成果，不仅标志 着项目正式从建设阶段迈入生产经营新阶段，更成为古雷石化园区延伸高附加值下游产业链、做强锂电 新材料板块的重要实践印证。 在全球能源转型提速、新能源汽车与储能产业蓬勃发展的背景下，我国锂电池产业规模持续扩容，负极 材料作为锂电池四大核心材料之一，直接决定电池综合性能、安全系数与循环寿命，是锂电产业链不可 或缺的核心环节，市场需求迎来高速增长期，福建中碳此番精准布局，恰逢行业发展黄金窗口期。 项目实现"即投产、即见效"的亮眼成效，福建中碳常务副总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between State Power Investment Corporation, Sichuan Tieneng Power Development Co., and CATL marks a significant entry of private capital into the hydropower sector, indicating a shift in the energy landscape towards more diverse investment sources [1][11]. Group 1: Project Overview - The newly established company, Guoneng Dadu River (Danba) Hydropower Development Co., will focus on the investment, construction, and operation of the Danba Hydropower Station, which has a total installed capacity of 1.15 million kilowatts and a total dynamic investment of 15.273 billion yuan [1]. - The Danba Hydropower Station is the ninth of 28 hydropower stations on the Dadu River, equipped with four 275,000-kilowatt mixed-flow turbine generator sets and one 50,000-kilowatt ecological generator set [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - CATL's investment of 458 million yuan represents a financial opportunity, with the project's internal rate of return on capital estimated at 5.95% [2]. - The hydropower sector is characterized by low operational costs after initial high investments, with a typical large hydropower station requiring only a small workforce for maintenance [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average annual power generation of the Danba Hydropower Station is projected to be 4.718 billion kilowatt-hours, generating approximately 1.403 billion yuan in annual revenue at a tax-inclusive electricity price of 0.2974 yuan per kilowatt-hour [5]. - The average cost of hydropower is significantly lower than that of other energy sources, with a gross profit margin of 66.6% for companies like Yangtze Power, indicating the high profitability potential of hydropower projects [5]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Trends - Small hydropower stations face several challenges, including management difficulties due to their scattered nature, aging equipment, and low automation levels [7]. - The number of small hydropower stations in China has decreased from over 47,000 in 2017 to about 41,000 by the end of 2022 due to regulatory clean-up efforts [9]. - The upcoming IEC 61116:2025 standard for small hydropower stations will raise industry standards, potentially leading to the exit of non-compliant stations and providing a competitive edge to technically advanced companies [10]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The partnership between State Power Investment Corporation and CATL reflects a broader trend of integrating hydropower with energy storage solutions, enhancing grid stability and efficiency [10]. - This collaboration may serve as a benchmark for larger energy and solar companies, highlighting the growing role of private capital in the energy transition [11].

Group 1: Space Exploration - In 2025, more spacecraft will be sent into space, with China's Tianwen-2 successfully launched to explore asteroid 2016HO3 and comet 311P, enhancing human research capabilities in the solar system [2] - The commercial space sector is accelerating, exemplified by the successful landing of the lunar lander "Blue Ghost" by American company Firefly Aerospace, which aims to support NASA's Artemis program [2] - The Artemis program faces delays, with multiple task modules behind schedule and the core launch vehicle, the Starship, experiencing three failed test flights in early 2025, although subsequent tests achieved key objectives [2] Group 2: Gene Editing - A breakthrough in gene editing is highlighted by the case of a U.S. infant, KJ Mardun, who received the world's first personalized gene editing therapy for a rare metabolic disease, marking a significant advancement in customized treatments [3][4] - Chinese teams reported successful cases of xenotransplantation using gene-edited pigs, including the first successful liver and lung transplants into brain-dead human patients [3] - A U.S. patient with end-stage kidney disease received a gene-edited pig kidney transplant, which maintained function for 271 days, setting a new record [3] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence - Chinese AI company DeepSeek released an open-source model, DeepSeek-R1, which offers competitive performance at lower resource costs, aiding in reducing the digital divide for developing countries [5] - Major AI advancements were made by companies like OpenAI and Google's DeepMind, with new model versions achieving breakthroughs in text understanding and complex task execution [5] - AI's potential in research is demonstrated by DeepMind's Gemini model scoring at a gold medal level in an international math competition and OpenAI's GPT-5 making original breakthroughs in combinatorial mathematics [5] Group 4: Energy Transition - The global renewable energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with China recognized as a key driver in the transition towards renewable energy, as noted by the journal Science [6] - The UN climate change conference in November 2025 achieved positive political outcomes, showcasing a commitment to green and low-carbon transitions despite the absence of the U.S. government [6] - In fusion energy, the completion of components for the world's largest superconducting electromagnetic system, part of the "artificial sun" project, marks a significant step towards achieving controllable nuclear fusion energy [7] Group 5: Technology Governance - The rapid development of technology, particularly AI, has raised new risks such as misinformation and intellectual property infringement, prompting a global consensus on the need for enhanced governance [8] - The UN has initiated global dialogues on AI governance, and China proposed the establishment of a World AI Cooperation Organization to promote beneficial AI development [8] - Experts emphasize the importance of stable research funding, international collaboration, and cross-disciplinary cooperation to ensure equitable and sustainable technological advancements [8]

Company Overview - Wanbang Digital Energy is a leading global supplier of smart charging equipment and a pioneer in microgrid systems, also providing large-scale energy storage systems to meet customer demands and expand its business in the smart energy sector [3] - The company has delivered over 300 microgrid systems in various applications, including charging stations, enterprises, industrial parks, mining areas, homes, communities, high-altitude and rural areas, and islands [3] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, 2024, and the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company reported revenues of approximately RMB 3.474 billion, RMB 4.182 billion, and RMB 3.072 billion respectively [7] - The net profit for the same periods was RMB 492.5 million, RMB 336.2 million, and RMB 301.1 million respectively [8] - Gross profit figures for the respective periods were RMB 1.161 billion, RMB 1.220 billion, and RMB 754.5 million [9] Market Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the company's overseas revenue reached RMB 572.9 million, accounting for 18.6% of total revenue during the same period [4] - The company views Europe as a cornerstone for global expansion and collaborates with Schneider Electric through a joint venture to promote charging equipment and services in Europe [4] - Wanbang Digital Energy plans to establish marketing and service centers in five key regions: Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, South America, and North America [4] Industry Overview - The global charging equipment market is projected to grow from RMB 21.41 billion in 2020 to RMB 59.70 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.2% [10] - The market for direct current (DC) charging equipment is expected to surpass that of alternating current (AC) charging equipment from 2024 to 2030, with a projected market size exceeding RMB 196.23 billion and a CAGR of 21.9% [10] - The installed capacity of large-scale energy storage systems is expected to reach 146.3 GWh by 2024, accounting for 78.1% of the global total, with a CAGR of 104.6% from 2020 to 2024 [13]