证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A 股盈利望增长约 10%。③结构上，26 年科技及高端制造或仍维持较明显 增长，此外 A 股企业盈利的点状改善有望往其他行业扩散，例如消费地产。 25 年 A 股上市公司盈利已在企稳，其主因成本压降，内生性动能仍偏弱。 从整体情况看，全部 A 股盈利于 25 年确认企稳回升趋势。同时，全部 A 股 净资产收益率自 22 年以来首次出现企稳。剔除金融两油企业后，其复苏改 善更为明显，ROE 同样边际企稳。从盈利回升的驱动看，这主要源自成本压 降，内生性动能或仍偏弱。拆分净利润增速看，动力或主要来自于整体企业 降费增效，销售毛利率同比仍承压，净利率同比上行主因企业控费增效；其 收入端贡献相对有限，整体复苏节奏仍偏慢。从 ROE 拆分看，其企稳主因净 利润率回升，但上市公司扩表意 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese children's cosmetics industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market expected to exceed 50 billion by 2025, driven by the "refined parenting" concept and economic development [3][7][20] - The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive regulatory framework and the need for innovation in product safety and efficacy to meet diverse consumer demands [8][11][19] Industry Overview - As of June 2025, there are 28,168 registered ordinary children's cosmetics, with 27,219 being domestically produced and 949 imported; additionally, there are 427 registered special cosmetics, with 406 from domestic sources [3] - The children's skincare market is projected to reach 31.58 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and the market is expected to surpass 50 billion by 2025 [7][8] Market Trends - The children's cosmetics market is characterized by a dual evolution of scale expansion and structural upgrade, with a growing presence of both domestic and international brands [8][20] - The online sales of children's sunscreen products are projected to reach 1.83 billion in 2025, with the brand Hai Gui Ba Ba capturing a significant market share [8][9] Innovation and Quality Control - The report emphasizes the need for technological innovation and quality management as fundamental to the development of the industry, with companies encouraged to transform compliance pressures into innovation drivers [11][19] - Hai Gui Ba Ba has established a unique research laboratory focused on children's skincare and has developed a "SCIENCE-LED" research and development system to address industry challenges [13][19] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework for children's cosmetics is evolving, with a focus on lifecycle quality management and compliance with safety standards [20][22] - The report calls for a collaborative approach among companies to enhance quality management and ensure the safety of children's cosmetics [20][22]

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market remains weak, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates in the short term and a low probability of balance sheet reduction [3] - December's non-farm payrolls showed weakness, and previous data was revised down, indicating a deteriorating labor market despite a "virtually low" unemployment rate [3] - Inflation in December was moderate, reflecting previous market concerns about tariff transmission effects, which may be "one-off"; future inflation will depend more on rental prices, service industries, and energy prices [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until at least June 2026, influenced by fiscal stimulus measures supporting the economy and inflation [3] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair suggests a preference for policy independence through balance sheet reduction, but this view lacks consensus and empirical support within the Fed [3] Domestic Macro - Economic downward pressure is increasing, with Q4 GDP growth slowing to 4.5%, but the annual growth target of 5% is expected to be met [3] - Domestic consumption, investment, and real estate continue to decline, with investment growth slowing due to debt reduction and subsidy withdrawal, leading to increased pressure on consumption [3] - External demand and production remain strong, providing important support for economic growth [3] - Price indices are stabilizing, showing the effects of anti-inflation measures, but internal demand remains insufficient, with a divergence in pressures between upstream high-tech manufacturing and lower-tier sectors [3] - Policies are still focused on proactive measures, with a relatively mild overall intensity; 2026 policies are expected to be more pragmatic, with many local targets set lower than last year [3] A-share Strategy - The market is returning to rationality, with a short-term shift towards stability; investment and consumption are declining, while price indicators are stabilizing [3] - A-share trading volume has decreased, but overall sentiment remains high; medium to long-term policies are increasingly focused on technological innovation, with national subsidies continuing but at a reduced intensity [3] - External geopolitical risks, particularly from Trump, have increased but have a limited impact on the domestic market [3] - The spring market rally may be nearing its end, with expectations for a more rational market in February; the early spring rally has progressed quickly, and regulatory measures are cooling the market [3] - Investors are advised to consider taking profits or shifting to a more stable investment style before the Spring Festival, as the market is expected to experience increased volatility [3] Industry/Style - Investors are encouraged to take profits in high-growth technology sectors before the Spring Festival and shift to a more defensive style [3] - Focus on large-cap indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and A500, as market volatility is expected to rise [3] - Short-term strategies should include high-dividend stocks and sectors like banking, utilities, consumption, and real estate for potential opportunities [3] - Mid-term outlook suggests support for commodity-based sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, while technology hardware sectors should be monitored for guidance from earnings reports [3] Asset Allocation Views - A-shares: Neutral [5] - Hong Kong stocks: Neutral [5] - Interest rate bonds: Neutral [5] - Credit bonds: Neutral [5] - Convertible bonds: Neutral [5] - U.S. stocks: Relatively optimistic [5] - U.S. bonds: Relatively optimistic [5] - U.S. dollar: Neutral [5] - Japanese stocks: Relatively optimistic [5] - Gold: Neutral [5] - Oil: Relatively cautious [5] - Currency/deposits: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 134,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,250 yuan; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; LME 3 - month nickel was 17,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 65 US dollars; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 93,478 lots, a decrease of 5,975 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 42,420 lots, an increase of 2,105 lots; LME nickel inventory was 286,314 tons, an increase of 786 tons; the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,396 tons, an increase of 4,602 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 11,148 tons, unchanged; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel was 50,464 tons, an increase of 2,392 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,750 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,950 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 222 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.08 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,172.34 million tons, a decrease of 56.28 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel was 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.72 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 54.9 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises; the US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, highlighting the weakening momentum of the labor market at the beginning of the year; the US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas. In the fundamental aspect, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, but the quota for the first quarter will be postponed, and the raw material contraction is expected to be transmitted in the second quarter. In the smelting end, the production of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit space for production, and the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. In the demand end, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. Domestic nickel inventory is growing faster, the market mainly buys on dips, and the spot premium has declined; overseas LME inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, the position is stable and the price is adjusted, and the market sentiment is recovering [3] 8. Key Concerns - There is no news today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are in production reduction at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. The downstream market is turning to the off - season, and overall demand is weak, with only some policy - supported areas like the automobile sector showing bright spots. The spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory has slightly increased, while LME zinc inventory is stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Shanghai zinc main contract closing price: 24,395 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan; 03 - 04 month contract spread: - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan - LME three - month zinc quote: 3,305.5 US dollars/ton, down 17.5 US dollars - Shanghai zinc total open interest: 194,134 lots, down 6,190 lots - Shanghai zinc top 20 net open interest: 2,011 lots, down 4 lots - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged - SHFE inventory: 65,154 tons, down 7,997 tons; LME inventory: 108,200 tons, down 775 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price: 24,580 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price: 24,160 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan - ZN main contract basis: 185 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - LME zinc cash - 3 months spread: - 22.23 US dollars/ton, up 3.66 US dollars - Kunming 50% zinc concentrate ex - works price: 21,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - Shanghai 85% - 86% crushed zinc price: 16,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - WBMS zinc supply - demand balance: - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons - ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance: - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - ILZSG global zinc mine production: 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons - Domestic refined zinc production: 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - Zinc ore imports: 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports: 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons - Refined zinc exports: 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - Zinc social inventory: 111,300 tons, up 4,100 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production: 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; sales: 2.36 million tons - New housing construction area: 58.76996 million square meters; housing completion area: 60.34813 million square meters, down 20.8942 million square meters - Automobile production: 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles - Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6. Options Market - Zinc at - the - money call option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money put option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money option 20 - day historical volatility: 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility: 18.91%, up 0.02% [3] 3.7. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. - The US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating weakening momentum in the labor market at the beginning of the year. The growth was entirely driven by the education and healthcare service sectors, while many key industries such as professional business services and manufacturing experienced employment contractions. - The US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed down, employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [3]

Core Insights - The 2026 APEC First Senior Officials' Meeting and related events will be held in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10, focusing on the theme of the 2026 APEC meeting and discussing specific cooperation to prepare for the informal leaders' meeting in November [2] Group 1 - The event will feature carefully planned city experience routes, including themes such as "Millennium Commerce · Innovative Future City Tour" and "Flower City Green Heart · Central Ecological and Cultural Tour," allowing participants to fully experience the vitality of the old city [2] - During the technology innovation-themed tour, foreign guests visited the Haixinsha All-Space Intelligent Experience Center, showcasing representative achievements in Guangzhou's low-altitude economy, intelligent networking, and embodied intelligence [2] - Guests had the opportunity to witness the convenience of flying cars, interact with intelligent robots, and participate in simulated flights, providing an immersive experience of the technological innovations from Guangdong enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The integration of technology innovation and industrial innovation is deepening, with a focus on high-value patents driving this process [2][4][6] - The smartphone market in China is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with foldable smartphones showing a shipment growth of 9.2% year-on-year, reaching over 10 million units [2] - OPPO has invested over 8 years in R&D for foldable smartphones, holding more than 3,500 related patents, and aims to have over 118,000 global patent applications by the end of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The agricultural machinery industry faces challenges such as crop loss during harvesting due to complex conditions, prompting innovation in real-time monitoring and automatic adjustment technologies [3] - A new patent for an adaptive cleaning control device in harvesters has been developed, significantly improving harvesting efficiency and reducing reliance on subjective experience [3] - Collaborative efforts between academia and industry have led to the development of prototypes that have generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue for companies [3] Group 3 - Over 280,000 companies in China hold 1.764 million high-value invention patents, accounting for more than three-quarters of the total, indicating a strong focus on patent commercialization [4] - The industrialization rate of invention patents has increased from 44.9% to 54% since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, reflecting a growing emphasis on integrating research and development with market needs [4] - Innovations in brain-machine interface technology have shown promising results in rehabilitation, utilizing a non-invasive interface combined with AI algorithms [4][5] Group 4 - The accumulation of high-value patents is crucial for China's goal of achieving high-level technological self-reliance, with nearly 800,000 patents maintained for over 10 years generating significant economic and social value [6] - Original and leading innovations are emerging in key sectors such as artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, biomedicine, and new energy, supported by a robust patent framework [6]

瑞银：中国股市具备增长与收益潜力 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新社上海2月5日电 (记者 姜煜)瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)5日发表机构观点称，中国股市具 备增长与收益潜力。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 CIO认为，中国持续推动科技创新和自立自强，为企业营造了有利的营商环境。中国政府对本土人工智 能(AI)模型和芯片制造的明确支持，将为中国科技股进一步上涨奠定基础。同时，医疗保健企业"走出 去"、新消费模式兴起及电网现代化建设等结构性利好，有望惠及金融、医疗保健、消费、材料和电力 设备等行业。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 除中国以外，CIO对美国、日本、欧洲股市均表示乐观。据其分析，美国市场依然是投资者股票配置的 核心组成部分，且后续仍有上行潜力。日本实际工资回升带来的"良性"通胀及股市改革深化，有望支撑 其市场表现。而周期前景改善、结构性环境优化和估值合理仍将支撑欧洲股市。 "综上，我们预计今年年底全球股市将上涨约10%，建议持仓过于集中于美国市 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 展望后市，淡水泉投资相关人士表示，市场驱动逻辑有望从估值修复转向盈利支撑，从全年时间节点来 看，上半年尤其是四月底前，是一个值得重点把握的布局窗口。此外，资金对核心资产的青睐将主要围 绕科技创新、中国企业全球化等主题展开，以AI为例，今年AI投资逻辑有望从总量向结构转变。未 来，本公司将重点关注供给紧张、约束明显且市场认知尚未充分挖掘的板块或资产，尤其是国内算力基 建在先进制程突破与供应链自主可控进程中所带来的机会。 当前市场流动性保持宽松，投资者风险偏好处于高位，资金集中流向具备成长逻辑的方向。近日，淡水 泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（以下简称"淡水泉投资"）相关人士向记者表示，开年以来，资金从商业 航天、AI应用产业链，到电网设备、金属、油气、化工等板块快速轮动，市场交易情绪活跃，更多体 现出投资者对中国资产的信心稳步回升。伴随着风险偏好进一步回暖，市场开始期待更具持续性的走强 格局。 ...

同时，开发完整的科技旅游产业链，借助市场化机制，引导专业公司围绕科技主题开发一系列的科创衍 生产品。完善商业布局，促进科普体验与商业服务融合，打造科技消费新增长极，为上海打造具有国际 影响力的科技创新中心营造浓厚的氛围，在潜移默化中提升全民科技素养。 市政协委员 沈锋 建议围绕上海现有众多顶尖科研院所的技术优势，结合基因工程、脑机互动、太空探索等领域，在不涉 及安全保密原则的前提下，大力鼓励科研机构将国际领先的技术、装备和产品以更高频次、常态化的方 式面向中小学生和广大市民开放。 ...