Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) official Demarco emphasizes the need to monitor the speed of euro appreciation, stating that it helps to curb inflation, but the euro will not replace the dollar as the dominant reserve currency [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the euro is seen as a tool to control inflation [1] - Monitoring the pace of euro appreciation is deemed necessary by ECB officials [1] - The euro is not expected to take over the dollar's position as the primary reserve currency [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate, highlighting expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan due to persistent inflation above the central bank's target [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to around 143.75, an increase of 0.07% from the previous close of 143.65 [1] - The market anticipates that the USD/JPY could face resistance in the 143.35-143.40 range, with a potential recovery towards the 144.00 level if this resistance is broken [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the Tokyo metropolitan area showed signs of slowing in June but remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target [1] - Marcel Thieliant from Capital Economics indicated that the ongoing inflation levels suggest that the Bank of Japan may need to resume tightening monetary policy, with a potential rate hike expected in October [1] - The article notes that overall inflation indicators are still well above the Bank of Japan's May forecasts, reinforcing the case for a shift in policy [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The divergence in monetary policy expectations between the U.S. and Japan is seen as a core support for a stronger yen, with the market pricing in a potential 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The article mentions that the probability of a rate cut in July by the Federal Reserve is close to 20%, contributing to downward pressure on the USD/JPY [1] - Any further upward movement in the USD/JPY may be viewed as a selling opportunity, with gains potentially limited by the 200-period simple moving average near the 144.40 area [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Discovery Capital Management's founder Robert Citrone warns that the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts this year is "very dangerous" and believes the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all [1][3] - Citrone predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.8% to 3.5% by the end of the year, undermining any rationale for rate cuts [1][3] - He expresses concern over the disconnect between market expectations and economic realities, suggesting that the S&P 500 may face short-term corrections due to renewed trade tensions [1][4] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Despite short-term caution, Citrone is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy, expecting a "prosperity" driven by manufacturing return and consumer stimulus policies next year [2][5] - He believes the current economic slowdown is a "false signal" caused by policy uncertainty [2] Group 3: Trade Issues - Citrone identifies trade negotiations as another short-term risk factor, describing current tariff issues as "tricky" and "chaotic" [4] - He acknowledges that while strong trade policies may create structural changes, the process will not be smooth [4][5] Group 4: Global Capital Flows - Citrone notes a shift in global capital flows, with the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets declining, prompting investors to look towards overseas markets [6][7] - He highlights that the 11% decline in the dollar this year is not solely due to rate cut expectations but also because investors are hedging against their dollar holdings [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Latin America - Citrone sees Latin America as a new value area, with markets appearing undervalued compared to U.S. assets [7] - He cites Argentina's significant policy shift as a case study, where a transition from leftist policies to sound economic management led to a 4400% increase in stock prices [7] - Citrone anticipates similar positive developments in other Latin American countries, particularly with upcoming elections potentially shifting political landscapes [7][8]

日本央行审议委员高田创：日本国内通胀的迹象终于出现。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that managing inflation involves "tightening" monetary policy, while managing deflation requires a more nuanced approach, as simply "loosening" can lead to a liquidity trap [1][2][9] - Inflation is characterized by an excess of money in the market, necessitating a reduction in liquidity to stabilize prices [1][2] - Deflation, on the other hand, is not merely a decrease in prices but a complex psychological issue that can lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of reduced spending and investment [9][10][11] Group 2 - Fiscal policy is essential in a deflationary environment, as both businesses and consumers are reluctant to borrow and spend [3][4] - There are two types of fiscal policies: direct government spending and providing funds to citizens for consumption [4][5] - The effectiveness of government spending is contingent on the multiplier effect, where initial government expenditure leads to further spending by businesses and consumers [5][6] Group 3 - Direct cash transfers to citizens can stimulate consumption more effectively than government spending, as individuals are more aware of their needs [7][9] - However, direct cash transfers face challenges related to marginal propensity to consume, as seen in Japan's prolonged economic stagnation [7][12] - The article highlights the importance of targeted consumption vouchers and subsidies to encourage spending in specific sectors [7][12] Group 4 - The article discusses historical examples of deflation, including the U.S. Gilded Age, Switzerland post-Eurozone crisis, and Greece during the Eurozone crisis, illustrating different causes and solutions to deflation [12][16][19] - The U.S. Gilded Age experienced deflation due to a combination of gold standard constraints and increased productivity, leading to economic growth despite falling prices [12][13] - Switzerland managed to escape deflation through negative interest rates, while Greece's structural reforms were necessary to recover from severe deflation [16][19]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historic high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 10.52 points, or 0.02%, closing at 44,484.42 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 190.24 points, or 0.94%, closing at 20,393.13 points [1] - Datadog (DDOG.US) will be added to the S&P 500 index, replacing Juniper Networks, leading to a post-market surge of over 9% for Datadog [1] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for June showed a significant decrease of 33,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020 [1] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in global vehicle deliveries for Q2, with total sales of 384,122 units, below analyst expectations of 387,000 units [6] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) announced layoffs of approximately 9,000 employees, affecting less than 4% of its global workforce [7] - Google (GOOG.US) proposed new adjustments to its search results to mitigate potential antitrust fines from the EU [7] Stock Ratings - Jefferies upgraded Apple (AAPL.US) from "Underperform" to "Hold" [8]

相关趋势也得到了行业协会的印证。美国鞋类分销商与零售商协会(FDRA)近期一项调查显示，超过一 半的受访企业预计2025年零售价格将因关税上升6%至10%。美国服装与鞋类协会(AAFA)主席Stephen Lamar则表示，随着返校季商品普遍面临10%至30%的新关税，价格全面走高早已在预期之中。他警告 称，如果7月9日后这些关税持续甚至上调，消费品价格将在接下来的季度继续上行。 引发更大担忧的是，特朗普政府本周宣布与越南达成贸易协议，将对越南商品加征20%的关税，对 于"转运"商品(原产中国、在越南加工)则征收高达40%的关税。这项协议对耐克(NKE.US)、 Lululemon(LULU.US)、Patagonia、彪马和H&M等深度依赖越南制造的品牌构成沉重打击。 随着总统特朗普推动的新一轮关税政策逐步实施，其对美国整体经济价格体系的影响正在加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，根据电商分析机构DataWeave发布的最新数据显示，从2025年5月开始，美国大型百 货商如梅西百货(M.US)、诺德斯特龙与迪拉德百货(DDS.US)旗下的鞋类、服饰和包袋等品类出现明显 涨价趋势，这一波"标签式通胀"已逐渐浮出水面。 ...

Group 1 - The global bond term premium is rising, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rate risks and economic policy uncertainties, with Japan's 10-year bond term premium increasing by over 40 basis points since early last year [1] - In Germany, the term premium has also risen over the past two years due to the need to absorb the impact of the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction and increased government stimulus plans [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that since late April, the market has begun to bet more aggressively on the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies, although any deterioration in U.S. economic growth and employment data could reignite growth concerns [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it has not reached alarm levels, with expectations of a moderate slowdown in the labor market maintaining job growth around 100,000 [2] - UBS economists highlight early indicators of a weak U.S. job market, with rising unemployment claims and predictions of only 100,000 new jobs in June [2] - The National Australia Bank suggests that increasing government spending beyond fiscal capacity may undermine market confidence in the U.S. dollar, contributing to its decline [2] Group 3 - Analysts from the Netherlands International Group state that the Bank of England's potential slowdown in quantitative tightening seems to support the British pound, reducing the risk of further depreciation [2] - The South Korean inflation rate is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's 2% target, allowing for a cautious monetary policy approach focused on financial stability [2] - South Korea's overall consumer inflation rate rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above market expectations, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [2] Group 4 - Phillip Nova's analysis suggests that a weaker U.S. dollar may extend upward momentum in oil prices, despite the market already digesting production increase news [3] - Nomura's economists note that South Korea's strong exports and increased fiscal spending plans may alleviate concerns about economic growth, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting [3] - The median wage growth among major employers in the UK increased from 3.2% to 3.4%, with a significant impact on the service sector, while manufacturing was less affected [3]