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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Multiple index - type ETFs saw increased trading volume during intraday trading, driving the stock index to rebound. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP again. The Political Bureau meeting set the tone for 2026, maintaining a loose policy, and the Economic Work Conference made directional arrangements. In the medium - to - long term, the domestic market is characterized by a liquidity narrative, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, and the stock index still has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The international situation is complex, and positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. The Political Bureau meeting and the Economic Work Conference have given directional guidance, including the continued implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and greater emphasis on the role of the "strong domestic market" in expanding domestic demand. After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - to - long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. Future index trends need to focus on trading volume, and if the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the relatively strong trend can be maintained [4]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate. From the perspective of global indices, as of December 19, 2025, the Nasdaq index rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.1%, but the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.82%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03%, the CSI 1000 index fell 0.56%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.32%, the ChiNext index fell 2.26%, and the STAR 50 index fell 2.99%. In terms of industries, the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices showed divergent trends this week, with sectors such as commercial retail, non - bank finance, and social services leading the gains, while sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery leading the losses [11][15]. Liquidity - In November, the growth rate of the total social financing scale was stable, while the growth rates of M2 and M1 declined. As of November, the balance of M2 was 336.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% (previous value 8.2%). The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% (previous value 6.2%), and the M2 - M1 gap widened to 3.1 percentage points. The funds rate (DR007) remained at a low level, and in November, the net MLF investment was 100 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.85%. Direct financing became the main support for social financing, with government bonds making a prominent contribution. At the end of November, the stock of social financing increased by 8.5% year - on - year (unchanged from the previous value), and the cumulative increment in the first 11 months was 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.99 trillion yuan year - on - year. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan, mainly driven by direct financing such as government bonds and corporate bonds [13][16]. Trading Data and Emotions - This week, the trading volume of the two markets shrank slightly, and the stock index maintained a volatile pattern. From January to November 2025, retail investors in the A - share market opened a cumulative total of 24.9402 million new stock accounts, a year - on - year increase of 7.95%. The growth rate of institutional investor account openings was even more rapid, with a cumulative total of 93,400 new accounts, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets shrank to less than 2 trillion yuan again, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous tracking [23][24]. Index Valuation - The absolute valuation of the indices is at a low level, but the quantiles are relatively high. As of December 19, 2020, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.26, with a quantile of 79.25, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.79, with a quantile of 82.18. Among the major stock indices, the quantiles of the CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50 [30][35]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage industries are relatively high, at 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 are relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries are banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 1000 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [40][41]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking shows that from May to December 2025, a series of policy measures were introduced, including reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy and provident fund interest rates, establishing a 300 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care refinancing loan, supporting Central Huijin to play the role of a "stabilization fund", and deepening the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange. The current domestic fiscal and monetary policies are loose, and continuous policy stimuli are introduced to stabilize the economy. The "1 + 1" system based on the new "National Strength Articles" supports the development of the capital market, with a focus on the development of science and technology innovation and green development. High - tech sectors, especially low - penetration tracks, have received capital support and are迎来 long - term allocation opportunities [46][50].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged over 120% in 2025, driven by supply-demand imbalances, industrial demand, and investment inflows, with expectations for continued upward movement in 2026 despite short-term volatility risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of mid-December 2025, silver prices reached approximately $64.74 per ounce, up from about $30.1 per ounce at the beginning of the year [1]. - On December 17, silver futures in Shanghai hit a record high of 15,477 yuan per kilogram, while COMEX silver peaked at $65.909 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 125%, significantly outperforming gold [2]. - Silver prices have shown a consistent upward trend, breaking through key psychological levels, including $40, $50, and $60 per ounce within a few months [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces by 2025, with industrial demand expected to account for 58.5% of total demand in 2024 [3][5]. - Industrial silver demand is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from 2019 to 2024, contributing to 98% of the total increase in silver demand during this period [5]. - Major silver-producing countries have seen reduced output, while global inventories are at a ten-year low, indicating a tightening supply situation [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is a key driver of silver's price surge, as lower interest rates enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4]. - A decline in the U.S. dollar index is also expected to support silver prices, with historical data indicating that a 1% drop in the dollar typically results in a 1.5% to 2% increase in silver prices [4]. - The increasing industrial applications of silver, particularly in the photovoltaic sector and electric vehicles, are reshaping traditional demand structures [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices may continue to rise, with major investment banks adjusting their price targets upward, with UBS forecasting a target price of $58 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [6]. - The ongoing demand from sectors such as renewable energy and electronics is expected to maintain upward pressure on prices, despite potential short-term corrections [6][7]. - Institutions have raised concerns about the volatility in the silver market, suggesting that large trades can significantly impact prices, necessitating cautious risk management from investors [7][8].

Market Overview - The market operates on the principle that informed individuals earn from those who are less informed, emphasizing that in capital markets, the only standard is winning or losing [1] - The investment philosophy suggests that one should act when the price reaches a certain point and remain observant otherwise [1] Gold Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, dropping to around $4310 before recovering to approximately $4327, influenced by profit-taking and buying on dips [2] - The unexpected decrease in the US November CPI to 2.7% has strengthened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, limiting the downside for gold prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions and strong demand continue to support gold, with investors advised to monitor the upcoming US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further insights [2] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold's recent bullish momentum lacks strong conviction, as evidenced by a bearish candlestick formation [3] - Short-term resistance is identified at the $4365-$4370 range, while support is noted at the $4320 level [3] - The hourly chart suggests a sideways movement with potential for a significant downward adjustment, with key support levels at $4310-$4305 and $4280-$4270 [5] Oil Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - US crude oil prices are currently around $55.80 per barrel, reflecting a weak overall trend and hovering near yearly lows [6] - Market sentiment is mixed due to geopolitical factors and slow global economic recovery, which limits the demand outlook for oil [6] - The support for oil prices is primarily based on expectations rather than actual changes in the market [6] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a bearish trend with four consecutive days of declining prices, having broken through the significant support level at $56 [7] - The short-term outlook indicates a potential for further downward movement, with resistance levels at $57.0-$58.0 and support at $54.5-$53.5 [7] Risk Management Strategies - Emphasis on the importance of stop-loss orders, regardless of their size, to mitigate risks [8] - Recommendations against averaging down on losing positions to avoid increasing exposure to risk [9] - Suggestion to maintain consistent position sizes and avoid drastic changes in trading strategy [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan has entered a "surge" mode by the end of 2025, strengthening against major currencies, with the onshore yuan approaching the 7.04 mark, appreciating over 700 basis points since November, marking a 14-month high since October 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar index and a shift towards a more accommodative global monetary policy environment, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve reaching 87% by mid-December [2] - China's assets are showing strong attractiveness in 2025, with the A-share Shanghai Composite Index breaking a nearly 10-year high and significant foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with over 30 billion yuan net inflow in October [3] - The GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding market expectations, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.2 in October, indicating a positive economic recovery [4] - International investment banks are raising their ratings on Chinese assets, correcting previous pessimistic expectations about the domestic economy, which provides solid fundamental support for the yuan's exchange rate [5] - China's exports have shown unexpected resilience, with a trade surplus of 51 billion USD in September, the highest monthly figure since 2020, enhancing the stability of the foreign exchange market and providing endogenous appreciation momentum for the yuan [5] - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are driving corporate value reassessment, alongside narratives from AI and technology sectors, making yuan-denominated assets more competitive globally [6] - Increased preference for yuan assets by overseas investors is further driving the exchange rate up, creating a positive cycle of asset appreciation, capital inflow, and currency strengthening [7] - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak period for foreign trade enterprises to settle foreign exchange, as they convert accumulated foreign exchange income into yuan to lock in profits [8] - Additionally, overseas workers tend to remit their wages back to China before the Spring Festival, increasing demand for yuan, with historical data showing that the surplus from bank foreign exchange settlements is typically highest before the Spring Festival [9]

Wolfinance星级分析师认为，市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，继续支撑黄金价格。具体来看，早些时 候美联储如期降息25个基点，美联储主席讲话表示，劳动力市场存在显著下行风险，不希望政策抑制就 业增长，引发了市场对明年可能降息2次的猜测，此后公布的美国非农数据，显示美国劳动力市场降温 的态势仍在持续，令降息预期小幅升温，到周四公布的美国CPI数据，显示美国通胀明显降温，进一步 强化了市场对美联储降息的预期，这些因素支撑黄金价格，保持向上试探趋势，不过黄金在周四冲高回 落，主要因金价接近历史高点时，短期获利了结加强短期卖压，不过这并未改变目前黄金整体偏多的局 面。 12月19日，昨日周四我们认为，此前公布的美国非农数据显示，劳动力市场的降温态势仍在持续，这令 美联储降息的预期小幅升温，为黄金价格提供支撑，另外当天将公布美国CPI数据，若低于预期，将强 化降息路劲，这有利黄金上涨，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4300美元，其次4280美元，上方压 力关注4350美元附近的突破情况，向上突破关注历史高点4381美元。 从之后的走势看，昨日周四美盘开盘前，黄金震荡承压，跌至4314美元企稳，美盘开盘后，黄金短线 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月19日16时10分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.01%，沪银主力收跌0.46%，铂金主力收跌1.70%，钯金主力收涨涨1.67%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，特朗普称 乌克兰和平谈判"接近结果"，美俄官员本周末将会晤。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置， 可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下 次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期 强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指 ...

02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 沪铜市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 供给略增需求韧性，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏弱，周线涨跌幅为-0.96%，振幅3.84%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价93180元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得 2.6%，为2021年3月以来新低。美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。国 内方面，国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对 性措施，着力扩大有效投资。基本面原料端，铜精矿现货加工费指数负值区域运行且小幅下滑，矿紧预期将在较长的时期 持续奏效于铜冶炼端，为铜价提供较强成本支撑。供给方面，冶炼副产品硫酸价格小幅涨价，弥补冶炼厂部分利润损失。 加之，前期 ...

周五（12月19日）亚欧时段，现货黄金仍震荡徘徊短期高位区间内尚未爆发，目前暂交投于4326美元附近。周四（12月18日），金价一度飙升至4374美元/ 盎司的近两个月高点，却在短时间内回吐涨幅，收盘时勉强守住阵地，收报4332.31美元/盎司。这一波动并非孤立事件，而是深受美国最新消费者物价指数 （CPI）数据影响的产物。低于预期的通胀数据一方面刺激了美联储降息预期，推动美债收益率下滑，为金价提供了短暂的上涨动力；另一方面，却削弱了 黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力，导致多头获利了结。 基本面： 美国11月CPI数据的公布，成为本次金价波动的导火索。根据劳工统计局的报告，11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%，远低于经济学家预期的3.1%。这一数据本 应是市场的一剂强心针，因为它暗示通胀压力正在缓解，有助于美联储维持宽松货币政策。然而，现实情况远比表面复杂。由于联邦政府停摆长达43天，数 据收集工作严重受阻，导致10月大部分物价数据缺失，甚至取消了10月CPI的发布。这份报告被经济学家戏称为"瑞士奶酪"，充满了缺口和偏差。延续法在 处理缺失数据时假设10月价格指数不变，这在统计上引入了下行偏向，使得通胀趋势显得比实际 ...