Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US mutual tariff relaxation guides import and export expectations. The suspension of underground mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, combined with the approaching traditional consumption peak season, may cause copper prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,210 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 67,182 lots, a decrease of 10,339 lots; open interest was 127,084 lots, a decrease of 17,857 lots; and inventory was 34,961 tons, an increase of 2,128 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,515 yuan, down 75 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 305 yuan, down 15 yuan; and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,596 US dollars, down 18 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased; and the spreads of different contracts changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.745 US dollars, up 0.07 US dollars; total inventory was 178,963 tons, an increase of 4,356 tons [2]. Industry News - **M&A Information**: South African listed company Harmony Gold Mining's Australian subsidiary will acquire BC Copper for approximately 1.84 billion rand (equivalent to 1.03 billion US dollars), aiming to enhance free cash flow and improve solvency, subject to regulatory approvals [2]. - **Macro News**: The US Congress reached a budget resolution in April, including tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The US manufacturing and services PMIs were higher than expected, while the consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in April was lower than expected, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. Upstream Situation - **Mine Production**: The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine under Zijin Mining suspended underground mining due to multiple mine tremors; the sulfide copper ore project of Vediktepe Polymetallic Mine under ACC Metals is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2008; several copper mines have expansion or production plans, which may affect the production and import of copper concentrates [3][4]. - **Smelting**: Some smelters have production disruptions or planned production, which may affect the production and import of crude copper and electrolytic copper. For example, the PKSBK copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and the Maxi copper smelter in India may start production around mid - 2025 [4]. Downstream Situation - The high copper price has affected the new orders of copper products, causing the capacity utilization rates of copper rods, copper wires and cables, and other products to decline or be expected to decline [4]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 78,500 - 80,000), London copper (9,000 - 9,300 and 9,600 - 9,800), and US copper (4.3 - 4.5 and 4.8 - 5.0) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a pullback due to resistance at the $3500 level, with expectations of a potential rebound after testing support levels [1][3][8]. Price Movement - On May 27, gold opened at $3346.13 per ounce, reached a high of $3349.64, and then fell to a low of $3285.47 before closing at $3300.50, marking a daily decline of $45.63 or 1.36% [1]. - The price is expected to maintain a range between $2900 and $3500, with potential upward movement if it breaks through the downward trend line [10][12]. Market Influences - The rebound of the US dollar index has created downward pressure on gold prices, while easing trade tensions have also contributed to this trend [3][8]. - Positive signals regarding tariffs from the Trump administration and potential new sanctions against Russia have created mixed influences on gold prices [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the May average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthening bullish momentum [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold is near the downward trend pressure around $3500, with a focus on whether it can maintain above recent lows for further bullish opportunities [14]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3290 and $3272, while resistance levels are at $3320 and $3340 [15]. - For silver, support is noted at $33.10 and $32.90, with resistance at $33.60 and $33.80 [15].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and easing trade tensions, raising questions about whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a trend reversal, and whether expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts can provide relief [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a strengthening US dollar [1] - Easing trade tensions are contributing to the current market dynamics affecting gold prices [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current situation represents a temporary fluctuation or a more significant trend reversal in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The potential impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations on gold prices is being closely monitored [1]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-橡胶】供应方面：泰国原料胶水价格62.75泰铢/公 斤，杯胶价格52.8泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/ 吨，制浓乳胶价格14100元/吨；ANRPC最新发布的2025年4月报 告预测，4月全球天胶产量料降1.4%至76.7万吨，较上月下降 3.9%；泰国前4个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口157.3万吨，同 比增13.5%；合计出口中国100.5万吨，同比增38%。评：橡胶阶 段性原料抗跌，原因是泰国延迟开割，近期东南亚雨水较多， 也影响了开割进度，我国上周去库。预期弱，下游消费表现为 轮胎开工率虽然环比上升，个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小 幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，周内企业出货表现 未见明显好转，全、半钢胎库存延续增势。震荡偏弱思路。 【短评-白银】明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，由于 贸易政策、移民政策及财政政策等多方面的不确定性，宽松政 策暂停期可能更长，美联储需等待形势更明朗后才能做出决 策。评：美联储官员认为未来降息依然充满不确定性。美元指 数走低，利多黄金，避险情绪再度升温，基本面利空白银。白 银中期宽幅震荡思路为宜。关注白银与黄金是否走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rebound despite recent fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade negotiations between the US and EU [1][10][11]. Market Performance - On May 26, gold opened at $3354.98 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3323.64, and closed at $3341.30, marking a decrease of $16.4 or 0.49% from the previous close of $3357.70 [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $34.06, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - The US dollar index showed weakness, which limited bullish momentum for gold [3][6]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions involving Iran and Israel, have led to a resurgence in safe-haven demand for gold [5][11]. - The recent shift in President Trump's stance on EU tariffs has created uncertainty in trade negotiations, potentially impacting gold prices [10]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [13]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has regained strength, moving above the 5-week moving average, with potential targets of $3400 and $3500 [14]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is near resistance levels around $3500, with short-term bullish signals still present [16]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [8][10]. - The potential for a US debt crisis and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further support gold prices as a hedge against inflation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the stock prices of major Chinese automakers BYD and Geely is attributed to a combination of industry price wars and negative commentary from industry leaders regarding market practices [1][2][14]. Group 1: Industry Issues - The automotive industry is facing severe issues, including a price war that has led to losses exceeding 100 billion yuan, with some companies reportedly losing money on every vehicle sold [4][5]. - The price war has resulted in compromised vehicle safety due to cost-cutting measures, delayed payments to suppliers, and a drastic drop in the resale value of used cars, which negatively impacts the reputation of Chinese automakers abroad [5][6]. - There is a trend of capital-driven blind expansion in the industry, leading to decreased capacity utilization and increased losses, with some companies relying heavily on external funding rather than profitability [5][6]. - The phenomenon of "zero-kilometer used cars" is prevalent, where new cars are registered as used to inflate sales figures and obtain subsidies, effectively creating hidden price reductions [6][7]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - BYD recently announced a major promotional event, reducing prices on 22 models by up to 53,000 yuan, which is seen as a direct escalation in the ongoing price war [11][14]. - The competitive landscape is further complicated by the fact that BYD and Geely have significantly higher sales volumes compared to Great Wall Motors, which has a lower focus on electric vehicles [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The stock market's reaction to the price war and industry commentary has led to significant declines in share prices for major automakers, reminiscent of past market responses to similar pricing strategies [16]. - Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook suggests that the industry may consolidate, benefiting leading companies as the market stabilizes and matures [16]. - There is potential for growth in the export of traditional and hybrid vehicles, particularly in regions lacking electric vehicle infrastructure, indicating a broader market opportunity beyond just electric vehicles [18][19].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, up by 0.29%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8280.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.49% [1] - International precious metal prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3332.10 USD per ounce, down by 0.76%, and COMEX silver at 33.57 USD per ounce, down by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - As of May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3, while the services PMI initial value also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 94.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]

Group 1 - The joint statement from the US and China regarding trade talks has diminished the safe-haven appeal of gold, although volatility in gold prices may continue due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1][4] - The recent US-China high-level economic talks have eased trade friction uncertainties, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and a strong performance in global stock markets, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries faced sell-offs [4][7] - The US CPI for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, which may provide justification for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [8] Group 2 - The 90-day truce in the US-China trade war is seen as positive news for the financial sector, but significant disagreements remain, particularly regarding the fentanyl tax issue, indicating that future trade relations should be approached with caution [7] - The upcoming weeks will see important economic indicators released, including US Q1 GDP, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and April core PCE, which may present trading opportunities in gold [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, highlighting a 3% increase for the week, marking its best weekly performance since early April [1] - Factors contributing to gold's rise include a downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and weak demand for US assets, which has pressured the dollar [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and increased military actions in Gaza, are also supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold experienced a pullback after reaching a high of 3345, with support seen around 3280 [3][5] - The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations for further upward movement towards resistance levels of 3345-3350 [3][5] - Trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions around 3340-3245 and long positions near 3280-3285, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6]

Group 1 - International gold prices have returned to the $3,300 per ounce mark, leading to increased attention on gold-related assets [1][3] - As of May 22, 13 gold ETFs continued to rise, with the highest increase being 0.23%, following a strong performance on May 21 where 20 gold ETFs surged over 3% [3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to global geopolitical instability, a weak US dollar, and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, which have heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [3][4] Group 2 - Fund inflows into gold ETFs have seen a significant turnaround, with a net inflow of approximately 370 million yuan on May 21, and a notable shift from net outflows to inflows in the following days [3] - Multiple public fund institutions are optimistic about the long-term value of gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against equity risks and can provide capital gains [4] - Short-term volatility in gold prices is expected, but the underlying factors such as expanding global fiscal deficits and central bank buying are likely to support gold prices in the long run [4]