证券研究报告 固收视角 建筑业供需偏弱，商品价格多数上行 华泰研究 吴靖，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 李梓豪 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 4 月第四周，生产端表现分化，工业方面，上游焦化、高炉等开工率有所上行，但铁路货运、下游纺织与汽车开工率 多数收敛；建筑业表现偏弱，资金到位率、水泥与黑色供需整体运行弱于季节性。地产热度有所下行，新房成交位于 季节性低位水平，二手房成交动能略有转弱，高能级城市尚有韧性，但销售端量价平衡尚未达成，前期略有修复的一 线挂牌价近周下行。美国进口货物到港下滑明显，但国内出口吞吐下滑后又有所修复，外需前景存在不确定性。运价 分化，前景不确定性较强。价格方面，关税预期的反复对价格扰动较大。 1、消费：出行热度维持高位，汽车消费热度略有收敛，快递揽收水平高位运行 2、地产：地产成交热度波动，高能级城市有韧性，房价待企稳 1）新房方面：上周新房成交增速有所回落，各线城市表现均弱于去年同期。 2025 年 4 月 28 日│中国内地 张继强 研 ...

周五，大家最关心的月底会议发布了会议纪要。 总结一句话，经济呈现向好趋势，社会信心持续提振。 大家最关心的三个方面的表述如下： 1、宏观经济政策方面：加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 表述和之前基调一致。但由于本周川普撞了南墙，这两天多次提到已经开始和我们洽谈，我方连续回应没有收到美方要洽谈的消息。 至少，表面上来看不像月初那般"强硬"。既然你川普不打算硬钢（伤敌八百，自损三千）到底，那工具箱里面的政策，可以先按下不表。 所以，大家期待的降息降准没那么快，更别提其他方面的刺激政策。 于是，周五A股冲高回落。 2、会议开始之前，房地产明显是有异动的，据说相关小作文不少。 会议针对房地产的内容是：加力实施城市更新活动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存量商 品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 注意，基调与之前发生了改变。巩固一词明确的表示出，认为房地产此时已经企稳，不需要再加大刺激，而是要继续保持"稳定"。 房地产板块直线跳水 3、针对内需消费方面的表述：大力发展服务消费，设立服务消费和仰赖再贷款，加大资金支 ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 地产政策仍定位于托底和稳信心 核心观点 投资建议与投资标 ⚫ 4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出 "加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。"2024 年 10 月住 建部提出通过货币化安置房等方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造、危旧房改造，并 于今年两会上表示将继续扩大规模。多城已出台放票安置政策，我们认为年内旧改 有望继续放量。针对部分项目"征收方案扎实"和"项目资金总体平衡"之间的矛 盾，不排除未来中央财政补贴资金缺口以及央行投放 PSL 以支持城中村改造。"加 快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给。"今年"好房子"首次被写入 《政府工作报告》，3 月底，住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》。虽然新房市 场整体成交同比仍有下行压力，但在部分高能级城市，核心区域质量与得房率双高 楼盘陆续推出，释放改善型住房需求，在一定程度上给予新房销售支撑。未来随着 更多四代宅的推出，新房销售有望开始企稳。"优化存量商品房收购政策。"2024 年 10 月，财政部提出专项债收储商品房用作保障性住房；2025 年 3 月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Political Bureau emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and accelerate urban renewal, with a focus on high-quality housing supply and optimizing existing property acquisition policies [1][2][10]. Group 1: Urban Renewal and Housing Supply - The meeting highlights the acceleration of urban renewal actions, particularly in transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing, aiming to stimulate demand through existing stock [2][3]. - The introduction of "high-quality housing supply" marks a significant shift in policy direction, aligning with the goal of constructing "good houses" by 2025, which will guide the transformation of the real estate sector [4][10]. - The strategy of leveraging existing stock to drive new demand is expected to alleviate high inventory pressures, with an estimated 2 billion square meters of property to be absorbed through urban renewal initiatives [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Optimization and Market Stability - The focus on optimizing existing property acquisition policies is seen as a core engine for stabilizing the market, with plans to convert existing properties into affordable housing [5][10]. - The real estate market is currently in an "L" shaped bottoming phase, necessitating continued efforts to stabilize and recover the market, with future policies being crucial [2][9]. - The meeting reiterates the importance of maintaining a stable market environment, with a combination of policy measures aimed at both supply and demand sides to support housing needs [10][11]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The 2025 real estate policy is expected to focus on three main goals: stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and promoting transformation, with four key areas of emphasis [10][11]. - Policies will aim to enhance the quality of housing, support urban renewal, and ensure financial backing for real estate projects, particularly in major cities [10][11]. - The integration of financial support mechanisms and risk prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining market stability and encouraging high-quality development in the sector [11].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 建材板块 Q1 持仓环比略升，关注雅下水电站、高端 电子布等机会 行情回顾 过去五个交易日（0421-0425）沪深 300 涨 0.38%，建材（中信）涨 0.05%， 所有板块中其他专用材料板块涨幅最大为+3.21%，陶瓷板块则跌幅最大为 -4.31%。个股中，北京利尔（+11.5%），中旗新材（+11.3%），方大集团（+10.8%）， 豪美新材（+9.5%），海南发展（+7.9%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合 的表现：华新水泥（-4.0%）、 三棵树(-1.6%)、濮耐股份（+6.8%）、中材科 技（+8.7%）、华润建材科技（+0.0%）、西部水泥(+6.8%)。 建材板块 Q1 持仓环比略升，关注雅下水电站、高端电子布等机会 据 Wind，0419-0425 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 154.15 万平米， 同比-19.48%。中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势 和经济工作。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期 特别国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting on urban renewal and village transformation in Guangzhou emphasizes the integration of urban renewal with employment stability, enterprise support, market stability, and expectation management, aiming for high-quality development in mega cities [1] Group 1: Urban Renewal and Village Transformation - The city aims to achieve significant breakthroughs in urban renewal and village transformation through a "demolition, governance, and revitalization" approach [1] - The focus is on revitalizing old cities to enhance their vitality and exploring new paths for high-quality development [1] Group 2: Policy and Mechanism Enhancements - The establishment of a "people, housing, land, and money" factor linkage mechanism is proposed to improve the housing supply system [1] - Upgrading the housing voucher policy and refining the compensation and resettlement mechanisms for land acquisition and demolition are key objectives [1] - The goal is to optimize a "market + guarantee" housing supply system and accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to create investment opportunities in building materials [3] - The building materials index increased by 0.22% in the week from April 21 to April 25, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.38% [4][13] - Over the past three months, the building materials index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.19%, while over the past year, it has underperformed by 3.63% [4][17] Market Performance - The building materials index has shown a 3.00% increase over the last three months, while the CSI 300 index has decreased by 1.20% [4][13] - The average PE ratio for the building materials sector is 27.25, ranking it 17th lowest among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.10, ranking it 5th lowest [21][24] Cement Sector - As of April 25, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement is 332.84 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.03% [26][28] - The clinker inventory ratio has increased to 63.80%, up by 2.46 percentage points [26][28] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass remains stable at 1331.00 CNY/ton, while the futures price has decreased by 1.05% to 1128 CNY/ton [82][83] - The inventory of float glass has decreased by 0.11%, totaling 5,618 million weight boxes [84][85] Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass market is seeing stable prices for alkali-free yarn, with various types priced between 3,800 to 6,700 CNY/ton [6][19] Consumer Building Materials - The price of asphalt is 4,390 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.13% [6] - The price of acrylic acid has increased by 5.26% week-on-week to 8,000 CNY/ton [6]

广发宏观周度述评（第12期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-11期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 对中期影响深远的三个政策线索。 4月25日政治局会议明确指出"外部冲击影响加大"及"要强化底线思维"，并部署了一系列稳增长具体举措。从"加紧实 施"这一表述来看，目前稳增长具有一定的紧迫性，后续政策节奏有望加快。 值得注意的是，除了短期视角，本轮政策稳增长举措中也展现出一些新的中期线索。如去年底中央经济工作会议指出的，"实践中，我们不断深化对经济工作的规 律性认识"；以及3月5日国新办吹风会解读政府工作报告时指出的，"充分体现了9月26日中央政治局会议以来，党中央对宏观调控思路的创新"。 线索一：服务类消费可能成为新的风口。3月5日国新办发布会指出本轮稳增长"打破了消费是慢变量的常规"；而从本次政治局会议精神来看，政策侧重点可能已从 商品消费进一步扩展向服务类消费。在耐用消费品的政策红利释放之后，服务类消费空间更大。[1]2024年全国居民人均服务性消费支出占居民人均消费支出比重 达46.1%，而且部分商品消费是服务消费的场景带动的。要发展服务类消费，那么重要的不仅是有形商品创新，还包括应用场景和商业模式创新。[2]如《求 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][32]. Core Insights - The recent statements from the Central Political Bureau emphasize the need to continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market, affirming the effectiveness of previous policies [4][5]. - The trend of urban renewal is becoming clearer, with the transformation of urban villages identified as the most explicit policy direction for real estate in 2025 [12]. - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is aimed at meeting the residential needs of the population and avoiding homogenization between new and second-hand housing [16][17]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and resolving risks in key areas, implementing a comprehensive debt policy for local governments, and accelerating the resolution of overdue payments to enterprises [3]. - The meeting also called for the implementation of urban renewal actions and the promotion of the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [3][12]. Market Stability - The updated statement regarding the real estate market reflects a commitment to maintaining stability, recognizing the positive effects of prior policies such as relaxed down payment ratios and reduced mortgage rates [5][12]. - Since October 2024, indicators of real estate sales have shown a significant recovery, with both the sales area of commercial housing and the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies improving year-on-year [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing urban village transformation will stimulate housing demand, while the focus on high-quality housing will enhance the supply of new homes [32]. - Specific stock recommendations include Beike W, I Love My Home, Greentown China, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, indicating potential opportunities in the real estate sector [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of real estate strategies, emphasizing the need for quality housing supply and urban renewal initiatives to stabilize the market [4][32]. - Recent policies aim to enhance the real estate market's stability, with a focus on optimizing existing housing stock and promoting high-quality housing [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 206.4 million square meters, reflecting an 8.4% week-on-week increase [5]. - Year-on-year, April's new housing transactions in these cities decreased by 21.2% compared to the same period last year [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 142.4 million square meters, marking a 6.5% increase from the previous week [13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions for April showed a 1.5% year-on-year increase [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 15 key cities launched 121 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.68, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 89.5 million square meters, with an average absorption period of 23.2 months [23]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the central government is reinforcing economic stability measures, including urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as tax subsidies for home purchases in specific regions [33][35]. Company Performance Overview - The report provides a snapshot of key companies' performances, indicating mixed results with some companies like Lujiazui showing revenue growth of 33% in 2024, while others like Tianjian Group experienced a 21% revenue decline [39]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw Lujiazui's revenue increase by 41% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in the company's performance [39].