一个月前，经济学家还预计今年仅会再降息一次。但随着美联储政策制定者近期转向支持额外降息，新 的预测随之调整。 当前美联储面临双重风险：关税可能导致本已高企的通胀进一步攀升，同时劳动力市场或进一步疲软。 美联储似乎更看重后者，因此在上月进行了2023年12月以来的首次25个基点降息。 在117名受访经济学家中，除2人外，其余115人均预测美联储将在10月29日再次降息25个基点，使利率 降至3.75%-4.00%区间。另有2人预计10月降息25个基点、12月降息50个基点。 对于12月是否再次降息，支持的经济学家比例降至71%。此次调查开展于10月15日至21日。 金融市场交易员信心更足，已在利率期货合约中完全消化了今年再降息两次的预期。 包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的多名联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员均表示，将持续关注就业市场。 然而，已持续三周的政府停摆导致关键的就业与通胀官方数据延迟发布，令经济前景变得模糊。 "坦诚地说，当前FOMC中，约有一半成员更关注劳动力市场，另一半则聚焦通胀风险。"汇丰银行 （HSBC）美国经济学家瑞安·王（Ryan Wang）表示。 "美联储面临的难题在于，就业增长放缓是否主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking, a retreat from safe-haven assets, a strengthening dollar, and expectations regarding monetary policy [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 22, spot silver is priced at $48.93 per ounce, having fallen over 8% recently, while gold is experiencing a correction with key support at $3,950 per ounce [1]. - Silver's price dropped 7% to $48.62 per ounce, impacting the overall performance of the precious metals sector, with platinum and palladium also declining over 5% [3]. - The current market sentiment for silver is fluctuating below $50, with short-term resistance seen at $54 [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a corrective phase, with MACD showing a top divergence and RSI retreating from overbought levels [1]. - Short-term support for gold is identified between $3,950 and $4,000, while a break below $3,950 could trigger further downside risk [1]. - For silver, the technical indicators suggest a consolidation phase, with support at $46.90 and potential for a long position near this level [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade agreements may lead to gold prices consolidating over the next two to three weeks, which will also affect silver and related assets [3]. - Trump's statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation have added to market uncertainty, influencing global risk sentiment [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown risks, and central bank buying demand [4]. - The outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remains unclear, with predictions ranging from 2.25%-2.50% to 3.75%-4.00%, increasing policy risk [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, with a drop of 5.3% to $4124 per ounce, reflects a combination of profit-taking, reduced safe-haven demand, and changes in the macroeconomic environment, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [1][3][8] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Gold Price Decline - The immediate trigger for the gold price drop was profit-taking by investors after a strong rally, which saw gold prices reach a record high of $4381.21 on Monday [3][4] - A decrease in safe-haven demand was noted, attributed to optimistic signals in international trade, particularly comments from President Trump regarding a potential trade agreement with China [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape, including expectations of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also contributed to a diminished appeal for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The overall market risk appetite improved, negatively impacting safe-haven metals like gold [4] - The U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty, but recent political developments suggest a potential resolution, further reducing the need for safe-haven assets [4][6] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.34% to 98.98, has made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Short-term predictions indicate that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase, with expectations of volatility in the coming weeks [8] - Despite the recent decline, the long-term outlook remains supported by geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown risks, and continued central bank buying [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path remains uncertain, with predictions varying widely, which adds to the policy risk surrounding gold investments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand expresses deep concern over the significant appreciation of the Thai baht and its negative impact on the export sector, indicating that the currency's strength may further drag down overall economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - In the first monetary policy meeting chaired by the new governor, the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 1.50%, reflecting a cautious balance between economic fragility and currency fluctuations [2]. - The monetary policy committee voted 5 to 2 in favor of keeping the rate unchanged, contrasting with the expectations of most economists who anticipated a rate cut [2]. - The central bank aims to retain policy space and has indicated that monetary policy should remain accommodative until 2026 to support economic growth and address potential shocks [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The central bank forecasts a slowdown in the Thai economy from the second half of 2025 to 2026, with a decrease in the pace of tourism expansion due to the strong baht affecting international price competitiveness [1]. - Overall inflation is expected to decline and remain below the target range for a certain period, with projections of 0.0% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026, significantly lower than the target of 1%–3% [2][3]. Group 3: Currency Monitoring and External Factors - The Bank of Thailand emphasizes the need to closely monitor the baht's movements and take action against excessive volatility, reaffirming its commitment to maintaining price stability and supporting economic growth [3]. - The central bank attributes the strength of the baht primarily to external factors, including significant gold trading, and is encouraging transactions in USD to mitigate excessive demand for the baht [3].

但他也强调，这一目标不会自动实现，需要采取多方面举措，具体包括"完成银行业联盟建设、建立全 面运作的资本市场联盟、清除欧盟内部贸易中所有现存的重大障碍，以及加大对科技、国防和绿色增长 领域的投资"。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会成员Yannis Stournaras表示，该行已成功实现经济"软着陆"—— 在将通胀率控制至2%的同时，保持了经济的韧性。 这位希腊官员指出："这一成就与欧洲央行公信力的构建密不可分。公信力是一项宝贵资产，正因如 此，即便在近期通胀率大幅攀升期间，长期通胀预期也始终维持在接近2%的水平。" 他于周二在雅典举行的一场活动中称，降息与通胀管控"为经济营造了有利环境，有助于推动投资、实 现可持续增长并维护金融稳定"。 目前，欧洲央行官员对当前的消费者物价上涨速度及借贷成本水平表示满意。多数官员明确表示，除非 经济前景出现重大冲击，否则他们不倾向于调整货币政策。 Stournaras认为，全球经济正处于转型阶段，这为欧洲提升欧元的储备货币地位提供了契机。 他表示："对欧洲证券需求的增加，能够提升欧洲经济的流动性与融资能力，进而支持生产性投资，增 强长期竞争力。" ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货10月21日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.410 | 115.240 | 115.590 | 115.490 | 0.180 | 0.16 ...

Group 1 - In the third quarter, northbound capital experienced a net outflow of approximately 159.3 billion, with significant selling in cyclical sectors such as banking and non-bank financials, while technology sectors like electronics and automotive saw inflows [4][9][10] - The top three sectors for northbound capital inflows were electronics (27.8 billion), automotive (19.1 billion), and electric equipment (13.1 billion), while the largest outflows were from banking (-60 billion), non-bank financials (-36.3 billion), and food and beverage (-32.8 billion) [4][10] - Notable individual stocks with the highest net purchases included BYD (17.8 billion), CATL (16.6 billion), and Northern Huachuang (14.2 billion), while the most sold stocks were Kweichow Moutai (-17.2 billion), Changjiang Electric Power (-12.5 billion), and Agricultural Bank of China (-10.9 billion) [4][12] Group 2 - The liquidity indicators showed a net inflow of 250.1 billion in ETFs, while financing capital turned to a net outflow of 128.1 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][28] - The issuance of public funds increased by 5.73 billion, reflecting a strong demand for equity investments despite the overall market conditions [3][28] - The market sentiment was characterized by a decrease in trading activity for financing funds, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading declining to 12.4% [38][40] Group 3 - The sectors that attracted significant net inflows included non-ferrous metals, banking, and non-bank financials, with inflows of 61.5 billion, 85.9 billion, and 60 billion respectively [48][49] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications, basic chemicals, and transportation experienced notable net outflows [48][49] - The individual stocks with the highest net purchases in financing included Zijin Mining (+1.58 billion), Zhongjin Gold (+0.78 billion), and Beijing Junzheng (+0.75 billion), while the largest net sales were from Xinyi Semiconductor (-2.48 billion), Industrial Fulian (-1.02 billion), and Ping An Insurance (-0.81 billion) [50]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolving role of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, in influencing interest rates and market liquidity through monetary policy tools like quantitative easing [1][3] - It highlights the historical context of central banks, noting their original purpose of financing government operations and managing currency issuance tied to gold standards [2] - The relationship between central bankers and politicians is described as delicate, with central bank independence being crucial for maintaining market confidence, especially in the face of political pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The article references the significant actions taken by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who raised interest rates to combat inflation, illustrating the importance of central bank independence in achieving long-term economic stability [4] - It mentions the current political climate, particularly the pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, and the implications for future monetary policy decisions [3][5] - The potential for interest rate cuts is discussed, with market reactions indicating optimism for continued economic growth under the current administration [3][4]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP growth rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still feasible [1][2] - Fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [1][10] Consumption Trends - Retail sales continued to decline in September 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from August [1][24] - The restaurant sector also saw a slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][28] Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained stable at 6.2% in September 2025, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [1][4] - Real estate-related industries such as glass, cement, and crude steel experienced accelerated production contraction, while non-real estate-related industries showed marginal growth [1][11] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% month-on-month in September, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3% [1][7] - Core CPI increased to 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by rising gold and service prices [1][7] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment showed a downward trend across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors, with real estate investment down 13.9% year-on-year in September [1][10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][10] Debt Market Conditions - The debt market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news, but lacking strong long-term support [1][18] - The short end of the debt market shows higher certainty, while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility [1][18]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is stabilizing with a slight divergence in yield trends, while overall volatility has narrowed, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards a more positive outlook [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.16% to 115.590, the 10-year main contract up 0.05% to 108.145, the 5-year main contract up 0.05% to 105.715, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% to 102.372 [2] - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed slight divergence, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.5 basis points to 1.763% and the 30-year government bond yield up 0.15 basis points to 2.0875% [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose 0.99% to 479.2 points, with significant gains in several convertible bonds, including a 20.00% increase in Guanzhong Convertible Bond [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 3.45 basis points to 3.978% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 1.659% [4] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 3.361%, while the 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.3 basis points to 2.576% [4] Primary Market - Sichuan issued a 10-year ordinary special local bond with a scale of 5.16629 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0500%, with a marginal multiple of 1.23 times [5] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate steady at 1.317% and the 7-day rate rising by 0.8 basis points to 1.426% [6] Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the current fundamentals, liquidity, and monetary policy stance are favorable for the bond market, suggesting that the most pessimistic sentiment may have ended [7] - Huatai Fixed Income indicated that while the bond market sentiment has slightly improved, regulatory and stock market risks remain core concerns, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [8]