Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has been extreme, with gold reaching a peak of $5,598 before dropping below $4,700, indicating fierce market contention between bulls and bears [1][2] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered significant market reactions, with traders interpreting his stance on monetary policy as potentially hawkish despite his previous support for rate cuts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military interventions and tensions with Iran, have been key drivers for the rise in gold and silver prices, as they heighten market risk aversion [5][6] Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, with a drop of 3.3% on Monday, followed by a recovery that narrowed the loss to around 1%, but later expanded to a 4.3% decline [1] - Silver prices were even more volatile, initially plummeting over 10% to below $75 per ounce before rebounding to above $87, only to fall again by over 4% [1] - The stock market also reflected this panic, with numerous gold-related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong shares experiencing significant declines [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and contributing to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which negatively impacted gold prices [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a crucial catalyst for market direction, with weak employment data potentially reversing the trend of a strong dollar and reigniting gold buying [3] Geopolitical Factors - The increase in geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela and warnings regarding Iran, has significantly influenced market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5][6] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear agreements may continue to affect precious metal prices as developments unfold [5] Physical Demand - Despite market volatility, physical demand for gold remains strong, particularly in India, where premiums surged to $121 per ounce ahead of the federal budget announcement [6] - The approaching Lunar New Year in China is expected to boost demand for gold jewelry and investment, maintaining high premiums in the market [7]

·特朗普提名沃什执掌美联储 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变 ·加拿大央行维持2.25%基准利率不变 ·巴西央行维持基准利率在15%不变 ·韩元过度贬值引警报央行呼吁加强外汇对冲 ·阿联酋央行批准全球首个央行监管稳定币 【全球央行动态】 ·特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民 主党领袖舒默与共和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上 任。 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预 期，但政策声明透露出内部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 ·新加坡金管局称，政策区间宽度及其中心水平保持不变。 ·香港金管局将基准利率维持在4.0%不变，称美国未来息率走向仍存在不确定性，对香港的利率环境亦 会有所影响。 ·加纳央行将关键利率下调250个基点至15.50%。加纳央行行长称，加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取 外汇。 ·乌拉圭央行降息100个基点至6.50%。 ·韩国央行行长李昌镛警告，韩元贬值已远超合理区间，恐推高通胀压力。他敦促国民 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 注:因收盘时间不一致,铂、兜库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月30日，铭、纽价格整体大幅下挫：PT2606合约收跌11.79%至630.55元/克:PD2606合约收跌11.87%至46405元/克。此外，上周五 夜盘,外盘铂把价格继续大幅下跌,伦敦现货锐金盘中暴跌超24%,终根收2180.8美元/盎司,目内跌16.72%;伦敦现货投盘盘中暴跌超 20%，终损收771.美元/盎司。日内映14.69%。宏观层面，特朗普提名近什出任新美联随主席，国其相较于其它候选人更加鹰派,市场普 遍预期其不会采取大规模范松货币政策，同时派什的提名也缓解了市场对美联情独立世丧失的担忧，提振美元指数、美债收益率大幅 走强,加上资金的大规模流出,贵金属市场出现恐慌性抛售并发生了"踩踏式"下跌，钳、史亦不例外跟随暴跌。基本面方面,暂未 有较大变化,美国决定督援对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解的、把的关税风险,未来需关注组织库存是否流出,若确认,可能会对其 上行空间炮成压制。综上。基于 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 4.25%, indicating a market reassessment of medium to long-term interest rates amidst fluctuating inflation and resilient economic performance [1][3] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields reflects a combination of policy expectations, personnel changes, and macroeconomic data forecasts [3] - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair has led the market to reevaluate future policy styles, suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts until inflation pressures are confirmed to ease [3] Group 2 - The focus on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet issues indicates that any future reduction in its size could tighten liquidity conditions, impacting market funding and asset valuations [3] - There is a lack of consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of easing, with differing views on the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts [3][4] - Employment data has become a critical reference for short-term market pricing, influencing wage growth and inflation expectations, which in turn affects the rationale for maintaining high interest rates [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent significant decline in gold prices indicates a period of high volatility, and investors should wait for market stabilization before making any moves [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that gold is fundamentally an asset for risk aversion, but its price volatility reveals its risk characteristics, leading to a recommendation against immediate buying [1][2] - The support level for gold prices is estimated to be between $4300 and $4500 per ounce, with expectations of continued price fluctuations in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold and silver prices was driven by liquidity issues in the market and urgent physical delivery needs, attracting speculative investments [2] - The current market trend is highly susceptible to sudden reversals, with potential for significant price drops following the recent rapid increases [2] - The upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman may influence future monetary policy, which could affect gold's pricing and long-term investment strategies [3]

| | 20260202申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL I | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9 H | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 1405.5 1232.5 1874. 0 1787.0 | | 1155. 5 | | | 1721.5 | | | | 前2日收盘价 1419.5 | | 1165.0 | 1242.5 | 1876.5 | 1723.0 | 1791.5 | | EH | 煮蛋 -14.0 | | -9.5 | -10.0 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | | स्त | 楽跌幅 -0. 99% | | -0. 82% | -0. 80% | -0.13% ...

澳大利亚联储距离此前降息不足半年，或将于本周逆转政策方向，启动加息以压制抬头的通胀压力。 目前仍有高盛集团、德意志银行等机构预期联储维持利率不变，但多数观点倾向加息。也有声音指出， 该国中左翼政府去年大幅增加选举相关支出，加码监管措施，对生产率增长形成拖累，推高单位劳动力 成本至5%左右，与联储通胀目标难以匹配。 经济学家预计，澳洲联储将于周二将现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%。此次政策转向源于顽固的价格压 力，意外走低的失业率进一步加剧了通胀上行风险。GSFM的投资策略师斯蒂芬·米勒表示："通胀是一 个清晰而现实的危险，现在通过上调政策利率来应对这一危险是最恰当的反应。若不这样做，很可能将 导致未来不得不更激进地使用政策利率工具。" 当前全球货币政策路径分化明显。美联储以及一些亚洲新兴经济体准备降息，欧元区大概率维持利率不 变，日本则可能进一步收紧政策。 澳洲联储将于当地时间周二下午2:30宣布政策决定，并同步发布季度经济预测更新。一小时后，布洛克 将举行会后新闻发布会。若此次加息落地，将成为2023年11月以来的首次紧缩操作，但多数观点认为这 不会开启连续加息周期——当前金融条件已在收紧，澳元今年以来上 ...

在日元缺乏明确政策支撑、美元持续受益于偏鹰预期的背景下，相关货币对的上行逻辑依然成立，维持 高位运行态势。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 2026年2月2日，日本央行公布1月货币政策会议意见摘要，整体维持循序渐进的紧缩立场，叠加日本首 相高市早苗对弱势日元的表态，与美国偏鹰的货币政策预期形成共振。 来源：市场资讯 美元方面持续获得多重支撑。美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，市 场普遍认为该人选具备较强的纪律性和审慎性，这一人事安排意味着货币政策在降息问题上将保持克 制，美联储独立性风险有所下降，增强了美元资产的吸引力。通胀数据进一步强化了这一预期，美国12 月PPI同比维持在3.0%，未如市场预期回落，核心PPI同比升至3.3%，反映出上游价格压力依然居高不 下。多位美联储官员最新表态延续偏鹰基调，认为当前利率水平大体处于中性或略偏限制性区间，短期 内不具备进一步降息的迫切性。 日本央行会议意见未对政策路径作出明显调整，委员们普遍认为"落后于曲线"的风险并未显著上升，但 也强调在当前实际利率深度为负的背景下，若经济增长与通胀前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity tightening in the market has eased under the central bank's support, leading to a stronger bond market despite weakness in commodity and equity markets, with yields generally declining by about 2 basis points [1]. Market Overview - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the bond market saw a mixed performance with the yield curve showing a downward trend for most maturities, while the ultra-long end experienced upward pressure due to supply concerns [1][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points over the week, closing at 1.81% [4]. Bond Yield Changes - The changes in the China government bond yields from January 23 to January 30, 2026, were as follows: - 1-year: +1.8 BP - 2-year: -1.94 BP - 3-year: -2.09 BP - 5-year: -2.04 BP - 7-year: -1.82 BP - 10-year: -1.86 BP - 30-year: +0.19 BP - 50-year: +1.5 BP [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 95 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 624.275 billion yuan, with no government bonds issued [8]. - Local government bonds saw a significant increase in issuance, totaling 863.35 billion yuan in January, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.84% and 124.57% compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. International Market Insights - The U.S. bond market showed a mixed performance, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates as expected, while the PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [10][11]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.25%, while the 30-year yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.88% [11]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline, with production indices showing mixed results across different sectors [16]. - The total profit of industrial enterprises in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from previous months [16]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the bond market is currently in a favorable micro-structural state, with liquidity remaining stable and a potential rebound window still open [18]. - The "Walsh era" at the Federal Reserve may focus more on forward-looking decisions, potentially impacting the dollar's strength and overall market dynamics [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall allocation value of the convertible bond market has decreased, with only trading and gaming value remaining in the process, and the medium - to - long - term expected returns are low or negative [29]. - In 2025, the performance of pure - bond funds continued to weaken, while "fixed - income plus" funds had an advantage. They are entering a new development stage [30]. - In January, the industrial high - frequency data rebounded, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date shift. Policy - related impacts are still evident, but policy - based financial tools may improve the construction and infrastructure sectors. In the short term, it is difficult to expect total - volume monetary policies, and the second quarter may be a possible time for total - volume interest rate cuts [30]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds increased beyond the seasonal norm, but the number decreased. In the future, the yields of money market funds may continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down [31]. - Despite the interest rate reversal between China and Japan, global funds prefer low - interest - rate China due to factors such as exchange rates. China will eventually emerge from low inflation and enter a new cycle [31]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman may lead to a change in Fed policies. The overall orientation of monetary policy remains relatively loose, but in the medium term, the erosion of the Fed's independence may continue to reduce the intrinsic value of the US dollar [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous period and the same period last year. The Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the Non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, both showing a decline [1]. - In December 2025, the total social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. The market demand was insufficient, and the financial market was active [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio of silver futures contracts from February 3 [2]. - In 2025, the GDP data of 31 provinces in China was released. Tibet led the country in economic growth, driven by major infrastructure projects [2]. - The CME raised the trading margin requirements for gold and silver futures due to the sharp decline in precious metal prices. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman may lead to policy adjustments [3]. - The WTO ruled that the US clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act violated WTO rules [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The nomination of Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp decline in the global precious metal market. Spot silver, gold, platinum, and palladium all fell significantly. Some domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased [5]. - Some banks adjusted their gold accumulation businesses, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange took measures against abnormal trading in some funds [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - January 2026, the price of rebar reached a new high since late August 2025, rising 0.34% month - on - month [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In 2025, the national power market trading volume reached 6.64 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 130 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 84% [9]. - Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and taking measures against Canadian aircraft. India may reduce Russian oil imports [9]. - The EU plans to ban maritime services for Russian oil transportation as part of new sanctions [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since February 2, 2026, a 5% temporary import tariff rate has been implemented on whiskey [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will expire on Wednesday [13]. - On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 352.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, mainly due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [14]. - The Politburo emphasized the development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's article on building a financial power was published [14][15]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The UK Prime Minister visited China, and the two sides reached multiple cooperation agreements [16][17]. - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7%, and fiscal expenditure increased by 1%. The operating income of state - owned enterprises increased slightly, while the total profit decreased [17]. - Tax policies were adjusted, including changes to the VAT threshold for natural persons and clarification of VAT calculation methods [18]. - In 2025, Tibet led the country in economic growth, and many provinces planned to use local government bonds to acquire idle land [19]. - In January 2026, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities decreased, while the price of new homes increased in some cities [19]. - The China Banking Association issued guidelines for consumer loan collection. The issuance of refinancing special bonds for debt replacement accelerated, and local government explicit debt increased [19][20]. - Convertible bond funds performed well, while bond ETFs faced capital outflows. The US Senate passed an appropriation bill, but the government entered a partial shutdown [20][21]. - Japan was still under US Treasury monitoring, and some bonds were suspended or had changes in their transfer methods [21][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - On January 30, the Chinese bond market fluctuated. Interest - rate bond yields changed little, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. Money market rates showed different trends [24]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some Vanke bonds rose, and some other bonds fell. The convertible bond index declined [24][25]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. Most non - US currencies depreciated [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the convertible bond market, "fixed - income plus" funds, monetary policies, and money - market funds [29][30][31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 2, 143 bonds will be listed, 124 bonds will be issued, 85 bonds will require payment, and 399 bonds will pay principal and interest [33]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - As of January 31, 3057 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts. 53.6% of them were optimistic. Industries such as non - ferrous metals and new energy showed good performance [34].