Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan after accounting for 200 billion yuan maturing this month [2][4] - The central bank's actions are aimed at stabilizing the financing environment for the real economy, particularly in light of seasonal cash withdrawals around the Spring Festival and the issuance of government bonds [2][3] - The PBOC's open market operations are crucial for monetary policy and liquidity management, with a total net injection of 6 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] Group 2 - Analysts believe the recent MLF operation is designed to support major projects and enhance economic recovery, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds [3][4] - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points to encourage financial institutions to support key sectors [4][5] - The PBOC is expected to continue its supportive monetary policy stance, with potential for further adjustments in reserve requirement ratios or MLF rates depending on economic and inflation data [4][5]

1月23日，中国人民银行开展了9000亿元MLF操作，对冲到期的2000亿元MLF后实现净投放7000亿元。 从法定存款准备金率看，目前金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均为6.3%，降准仍然有空间。从政策利率来看，外部约束方 面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美元处于降息通道，总体来看汇率不构成很强的约束；内部约束方面，2025年以来银行净息差 已经出现企稳的迹象，连续两个季度保持在1.42%，2026年还有规模较大的三年期及五年期等长期存款到期重定价，近期中国 人民银行下调了各项再贷款利率，这些都有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。 值得注意的是，结构性"降息"已率先落地。根据中国人民银行公告，自2026年1月19日起，下调各类再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25个百分点。业内普遍认为，这一操作将直接降低银行从中国人民银行获取再贷款资金的成本，激励银行以更低的利率向小 微企业、科技创新及绿色转型等重点领域发放贷款，降低实体经济综合融资成本。 与此同时，市场也普遍关注降准降息的时间窗口将何时打开。中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时 表示，根据以往经验，再贷款利率调降后，总量降息空间也相应打 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate unchanged, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing that the current core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains below the 2% inflation target, indicating high uncertainty about future trends [1][2] - Ueda stated that the overall inflation rate is likely to fall below the 2% target, and the duration of the core CPI being below this target remains highly uncertain [1] - The central bank will focus on core inflation indicators and will evaluate various data, including the impact of last December's interest rate hike, when making decisions [1] Group 2 - Ueda highlighted the potential impact of a weak yen on import costs and domestic prices, noting that the central bank is closely monitoring how the depreciation of the yen and rising import prices will affect core inflation [2] - The dollar-yen exchange rate saw significant increases, approaching the psychological level of 160, raising concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities [2] - Ueda emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank while calling for the government to commit to fiscal health to gain market confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder, each having different implications for monetary policy and market stability [1] Group 1: Candidates and Their Implications - Kevin Hassett has been a favored candidate for a long time, closely aligned with Trump's economic policies, which may lead to aggressive monetary policy stances [1] - Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Governor, is also in the running, but his approach may not align as closely with Trump's preferences [1] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as a moderate rate cutter, potentially more acceptable to various stakeholders, and could be a compromise choice for Trump [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Sun Lijian from Fudan University warns that sacrificing the independence of the Federal Reserve for political gains could have long-term negative consequences for the U.S. economy [1] - Zhang Jianping from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation notes that Hassett's economic policy thinking has been significantly influenced by Trump since the first term [1] - Scholar Chu Yin suggests that while Hassett may be Trump's preferred choice, it could lead to significant market volatility, indicating that a more stable approach may be necessary [1]

据金吾财讯消息，英国1月标普全球综合PMI初值从去年12月的51.4跃升至53.9，显著高于市场预期 的51.5，创下2024年4月以来最快增速。服务业表现尤为亮眼，商业活动指数升至54.3（前值51.4）；制 造业PMI同样攀升至51.6（前值50.6），达到17个月高点。这是过去四个月中第三次出现新订单增长， 主要受出口销售改善推动。 03 经济增速与前景评估 标普全球首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森指出，1月份的PMI初值数据"预示着稳健的季度GDP增 长，可能接近0.4%"。这一评估显示，英国经济在2026年初呈现稳健增长态势。 威廉姆森进一步指出，尽管服务业仍然是增长的主要引擎，特别是金融服务业和科技行业。 01 超出预期的经济扩张 英国2026年1月的经济表现远超市场预期。综合PMI初值53.9，不仅远超51.5的市场预期，也是自 2024年4月以来的最高水平。 服务业PMI的迅猛增长尤其令人瞩目。从12月的51.4飙升至54.3，这一跃升幅度展现了服务业强劲 的扩张势头。 制造业也展现出了坚实的复苏迹象。制造业PMI从50.6进一步改善至51.6，连续第四个月保持在荣 枯线以上，并达到了自202 ...

中新社阿斯塔纳1月23日电(记者 单璐)哈萨克斯坦国家银行(央行)货币政策委员会23日宣布，将基准利 率维持在18%的水平不变。 哈央行指出，哈萨克斯坦2025年通胀率为12.3%，符合此前预期。食品价格涨幅仍然较高，特别是肉类 和植物油的价格，在生产成本上升和出口需求增加等因素推动下持续上涨。相比之下，受坚戈汇率走强 等因素影响，其他消费品和服务价格涨势有所放缓。 哈央行表示，当前通胀压力由多种因素共同推动。在国内，消费需求持续旺盛，供给能力相对不足。此 前生活类服务和燃油价格上涨产生的间接影响仍在持续，对物价形成一定压力。公众和市场对未来价格 走势的预期上升，通胀预期有所抬头。同时，财政支出扩大和税收政策调整等也可能对物价走势造成阶 段性影响。 在外部层面，尽管全球部分大宗商品价格有所回落，但整体通胀压力依然存在，地缘政治局势也加剧了 外部环境的不确定性。 哈央行指出，当前实行的适度从紧的货币政策，信贷和市场资金投放增速放缓，坚戈汇率保持稳定，在 一定程度上有助于抑制通胀。预计短期内基准利率将维持当前水平，下一阶段哈央行将继续跟踪物价走 势，加强政策协调，保持调控政策的连续性和稳定性。 下一次基准利率调整 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 格陵兰岛风波迷雾重重 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国达成 2025 年经济增长目标 2025 年中国实际 GDP 同比增长 5%，持平于 2024 年且顺利完成年度经济增长 目标；2025 年名义 GDP 略超过 140 万亿元，同比增长 4%，为 2021 年以来的最低 值；GDP 平减系数同比萎缩 0.96%，萎缩程度较 2024 年扩大 0.16 个百分点。2025 年最终消费拉动 GDP 同比 2.6 个百分点，拉动率较 2024 年提升 0.37 个百分 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan after considering 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month [1] - The total net liquidity injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan, significantly larger than previous scales, indicating a proactive approach to ensure sufficient liquidity [1] - The PBOC's actions align with the recent statements from its governor, Pan Gongsheng, emphasizing continued support for economic stability and the domestic bond market [2] Group 2 - Pan Gongsheng highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to enhance support for key strategic areas and weak links, ensuring financial institutions focus on critical projects [3] - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity and guiding overnight rates near policy levels [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 沪铜市场周报 供应充足需求暂稳，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 80000 130000 180000 230000 280000 330000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 2025-02-27 2025-04-27 2025-06-27 2025-08-27 2025-10-27 2025-12-27 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线高位震荡，周线涨跌幅为+0.57%，振幅2.77%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价101340元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上 ...