Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, trading around $3990 per ounce, with a decline of approximately 0.25% due to a strong US dollar at a three-month high [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal division was highlighted by a rare 10-2 vote, indicating significant disagreement among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut dropped sharply from nearly 100% to 65.3% following comments from Fed Chair Powell, who emphasized the need for caution in further easing [1][3] Group 2 - Dovish representative Milan reiterated the need for substantial rate cuts, suggesting a gradual reduction of 50 basis points until rates fall below the neutral level, citing pressures in housing and private credit markets [3] - Hawkish voices, including Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, expressed concerns over persistent inflation above target levels, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation in the coming years [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, increasing uncertainty in the market, with key labor statistics and non-farm payroll reports on hold, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.46%, the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.17%, and the Dow Jones down by 0.48% [1] - Technology stocks performed strongly, with Amazon's stock price climbing 4% to reach a historical high, while Nvidia and Tesla both saw gains exceeding 2% [1] - Some semiconductor and consumer stocks faced pressure and adjustments [1] Chinese Market - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.26%, with component stocks showing divergent trends [1] - Canadian Solar's stock surged nearly 10%, while e-commerce stocks like Alibaba experienced slight pullbacks [1] Commodity Market - International oil prices exhibited narrow fluctuations, and gold spot prices briefly returned to the $4,000 mark [1] Economic Outlook - Short-term market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, with a current probability of a rate cut at approximately 65% [1] - Continuous contraction in U.S. manufacturing data and ongoing government shutdown may heighten uncertainty in policy direction [1] - Attention is drawn to inflation data and regional developments that could impact asset prices [1]

贵金属日报 2025-11-04 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.08 %，报 919.52 元/克，沪银跌 0.34 %，报 11350.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4013.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 47.91 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 99.87 ； 昨日美联储官员表态总体偏鸽派，同时美国制造业 pmi 的弱势加大市场降息预期，金银价格 短期具备支撑，但仍将处于震荡区间。 美联储理事库克在经历"解职风波"后首次就货币政策进行表态，总体基调偏鸽派，她认为 12 月份联储议息会议有可能进行降息，但届时的决定仍受到经济数据的影响。旧金山联储主席戴 利也表示支持降息，她认为劳动力市场疲软的现象正在加剧，牺牲数百万个就业岗位以换取 2% 的通胀目标是不合理的。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表态则偏鹰派，他认为通胀数据令人担忧， 当前降息的门槛高于前两次议息会议。 美国 10 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 ...

Company Overview - Minsheng Securities has initiated coverage on China Gold International (02099) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenues of $1,119 million, $1,222 million, and $1,339 million for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 47.9%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively. Net profits are expected to be $379 million, $460 million, and $544 million for the same period, with growth rates of 504%, 21.5%, and 18.2% respectively [1] Mining Assets - The company owns two major mining assets: Changshanhao Gold Mine and Jiama Polymetallic Mine. Prior to 2023, production was stable with steady profitability. After facing challenges in 2023, production is expected to gradually recover in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 [2] - Changshanhao Gold Mine, located in Inner Mongolia, has a current gold resource of 158.57 tons and a reserve of 15.02 tons. Surface resource extraction is nearing completion, but significant exploration results are expected in the first half of 2025. The mine is currently in a transition to underground mining, with production expected to stabilize at 2.4-2.6 tons during this period [2] - Jiama Polymetallic Mine, located in Tibet, is a large copper-gold polymetallic deposit with copper reserves of 207.5 million tons and gold reserves of 55.7 tons. Following a tailings pond incident in 2023, production capacity was reduced from 50,000 tons per day to 34,000 tons per day. Future plans include a three-step approach to restore capacity to over 50,000 tons per day, with a new exploration report expected in April 2026 [2] Market Conditions - The report indicates that by the second half of 2025, U.S. inflation is expected to decline, with non-farm data often falling short of expectations. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which could catalyze a rise in gold prices. Global central banks have been increasing gold purchases, with China’s central bank continuing to buy gold for ten consecutive months, indicating a rising willingness to allocate assets to gold [3]

Group 1: Hong Kong and China Market Focus - The resilience of non-US exports is expected to support mainland foreign trade data, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 4.5% for exports and 3.5% for imports in October 2025 [19][20]. - The meeting between the Chinese and US leaders is anticipated to ease uncertainties, positively impacting risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks, particularly benefiting companies like Tencent Holdings and Alibaba [22][23]. - The iShares Hang Seng Tech ETF is highlighted as a vehicle to capture opportunities in technology-related Hong Kong stocks [26]. Group 2: US Market Focus - Federal Reserve Chair Powell has downplayed the expectations for a rate cut in December, with market implied probabilities dropping from 85% to around 70% [34]. - The divergence within the FOMC regarding interest rate decisions indicates a complex economic outlook, with expectations for a potential 25 basis points cut in December still on the table [33][34]. - Companies like Digital Realty and Cameco are identified as key players, with Digital Realty benefiting from AI-driven demand and Cameco positioned to capitalize on nuclear energy expansion [44]. Group 3: Malaysia Market Focus - New agreements are expected to reduce uncertainties in trade with the US, providing a more supportive macro environment for companies like Petronas and the broader Malaysian economy [49][50]. - The iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF is noted as a means to invest in Malaysian equities, reflecting the positive outlook for the market [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino - US negotiation has concluded, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The market is still skeptical about the tariff details. After the correction, precious metals rebounded. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may be appropriate to further ease policies this year. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is emerging, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, it is not certain that the Fed will further cut interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that the medium - term prices of precious metals will still be supported, while the short - term prices are still in an adjustment state. It is recommended to pay attention to the US ADP employment data to be released this Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: Due to the conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, market doubts about tariff details, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the price of US gold declined. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4013 per ounce, down 2.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3950 [6]. - **Silver**: Affected by the same factors, the price of US silver showed a weak oscillation. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.3%, closing at $48.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $49.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint The factors mentioned above led to the correction and subsequent rebound of precious metals. The market is divided on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts has been lowered. The Fed may further ease policies, but a December cut is not guaranteed. With the weakening US economic data and concerns about fiscal and Fed independence, precious metals are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the US ADP employment data on Wednesday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis of these indicators is provided in the text [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week The announced value of the US October Chicago PMI was 43.8, higher than the expected value of 42.3 and the previous value of 40.6 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - **Sino - US Negotiation**: The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year, and China will suspend relevant export - control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study specific plans [27]. - **Fed**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 - 4.0% at the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said that the government "shutdown" affects the economy, but the impact will reverse after the "shutdown" ends. A further interest - rate cut at the December meeting is not certain [27]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% at the interest - rate meeting. This is the third consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged. The last rate cut was in June when the euro - area inflation rate reached the 2% target [27]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 22,053.63 kg to 1,187,159.84 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 801 kg to 87,816 kg [13][31]. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 451,258.42 kg to 15,005,532.25 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 573 kg to 665,544 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (November 3), 23:00, the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (November 5), 21:15, the change in the US October ADP employment number will be announced [38].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 短期内国债期货维持区间震荡 核心观点 国债期货：短期内国债期货维持区间震荡 上周国债期货均震荡反弹。统计局公布的 10 月制造业 PMI 数据 有所走弱，其中价格指数与就业指数反应内需有效需求不足的问题 仍存。中长期来看需要偏宽松的货币环境稳定需求端，央行也表态 称要增强央行政策利率的作用,收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，国债期货 具备较强支撑。市场对未来的降息预期有所升温，市场利率开始走 弱。不过由于完成今年增长目标的难度较小，短期内全面降息的必 要性不强，国债期货短线上行动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内国 债期货上下空间均有限，以区间震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格号：F3035632 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting last week resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments created uncertainty about a potential December rate cut, reflecting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate paths [2][5][6] - Risk assets had already priced in the December rate cut, leading to pressure on commodities including gold and copper [2][5] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices fell by 2.75% on COMEX, while silver saw a slight decline of 0.33%. In contrast, SHFE silver rose by 0.96% [3][27] - The precious metals market is currently in an adjustment phase, lacking upward momentum due to a combination of a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand [6][26] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data and the potential for changes in December rate cut expectations [57] Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices experienced minor fluctuations, with a slight decrease of 0.07%. SHFE copper fell by 0.81% [3][9] - Domestic refined copper consumption has weakened, with various segments showing signs of consumption suppression, making it difficult to sustain high copper prices [9][10] - The potential for a market squeeze in copper has decreased, leading to some capital outflow, although port congestion in Tanzania may provide price support [5][7] Inventory and Supply Chain - COMEX copper inventories have increased significantly, surpassing 350,000 tons, indicating a potential oversupply situation [9] - The copper concentrate TC index fell to -42.45 USD/ton, reflecting a cautious trading atmosphere with limited changes in the spot market [15] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories rose to 192,200 tons, while SHFE gold and silver inventories showed mixed trends [20][42] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of weak demand for refined copper and related products, leading to potential production cuts in some regions [23][57] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by sovereign credit hedging, despite short-term uncertainties [57]

今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.11美元/盎司，最低触及3962.33美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 所幸的是，下周将有大量美国私营部门数据公布。其中，以往常被忽视的JOLTS职位空缺和Challenger 裁员数据此次将受到应有的重视。不过，市场的目光无疑会聚焦于两份ISM调查以及ADP就业报告上。 若下周公布的一系列数据表现疲软，将重新点燃市场对12月降息的预期。这些数据将比以往更受密切关 注，以便从中探寻劳动力市场的健康状况以及通胀压力的迹象。 市场预期10月ISM制造业指数有望重返50荣枯线之上，这可能是自2025年2月以来的首次扩张。五大地 区联储调查中已有四份显示制造业有所改善。服务业方面，预计ISM指数将小幅扩张至50.4，但由于政 府停摆的影响，该指数跌入收缩区间的风险显著增加。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that December interest rate cut expectations have weakened, leading to fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices. The overall industrial metal prices have shown volatility, with domestic prices falling except for aluminum, while external prices have risen for all but copper and nickel. This is attributed to the realization of benefits from the October interest rate cut and US-China talks, alongside hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve that have dampened December rate cut expectations [1][4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are stabilizing as the interest rate cut approaches, with recession trading remaining the core driver for gold price recovery. The report emphasizes that the current environment suggests gold prices are more likely to fluctuate rather than indicate a trend reversal. The focus is on the potential impact of domestic gold trading tax policies, which may increase the cost of physical gold holdings while stabilizing reserves [3][4]. Industrial Metals - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum. It notes that while short-term interest rate cut expectations have decreased, the medium to long-term economic stabilization outlook remains unchanged. The report highlights that supply adjustments in copper and aluminum since late September warrant attention, particularly the potential for overseas copper companies to reduce supply at year-end [5][6]. Energy and Minor Metals - The lithium sector is identified as entering a pivotal year, with demand for lithium expected to grow significantly by 2026 due to stable domestic power demand and the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization. The report also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, noting that the long-term demand for rare earth materials is expected to recover due to traditional demand bottoming out and the acceleration of applications in humanoid robotics [6][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.64% increase compared to a 0.11% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index. The energy metals sector has shown particularly strong performance, with a 4.99% increase [15][19].