Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price and Ratio**: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - **ETF and CFC Holdings**: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - **Eurozone Data**: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 31, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.31%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index continued to adjust, and the prices of some commodities like iron ore and asphalt declined slightly [1][2][10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of different industries are changing. For instance, the steel market is facing a shift from macro - driven sentiment to industry reality, and the alumina industry is in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [11][12]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On October 31, the A - share market saw a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79 points (down 0.81%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 13378.21 points (down 1.14%), and the ChiNext Index at 3187.53 points (down 2.31%). The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4640.67, a decrease of 69.24 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and a third - round increase may start. The steel mills in some areas have production - limiting plans, and the finished product prices have slightly increased. The supply of raw materials may face pressure as the peak season for steel is ending. The daily consumption of coke is 107.96 million tons (- 0.47), and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71% (0.44) [5]. - Coking coal's supply increase is limited due to environmental protection and safety inspections, supporting its price. The spot prices of some coking coal varieties have changed, and the inventory of coking coal in different sectors also shows different trends [6]. Sugar Futures - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on October 31. The night - session of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower due to long - position liquidation [7]. Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline in the night - session on October 31 due to technical factors. The 20 - number rubber futures had a larger decline due to an increase in inventory. The natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1425 tons, and the 20 - number rubber inventory increased by 2217 tons [7]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on October 31, the CBOT soybeans were strong, reaching a 15 - month high. After the China - US summit, the market expects China to increase its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.9%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal still exists [8]. Live Pig Futures - On October 31, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11815 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The secondary fattening activity has cooled down significantly, and the market supply has increased. The demand has a seasonal warming expectation, but the consumption recovery is limited. The "supply exceeds demand" situation in the live pig market remains unchanged [9]. Copper Futures - The Sino - US trade situation has eased, and the Fed cut interest rates slightly in October. However, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the copper price is suppressed. But overseas mine disruptions and low non - US inventories still support the copper price [9]. Cotton Futures - On the night of October 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13555 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 20 lots compared with the previous day, and the price of machine - picked cotton is concentrated at 6.15 - 6.45 yuan/kg [9]. Iron Ore Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.56% at 800 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the iron ore price is in a volatile trend due to the decline in the steel mill profitability rate and environmental protection control in Hebei [10]. Asphalt Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.58% at 3244 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released due to cooling and rainfall, and the asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil and shows a volatile trend [10]. Log Futures - On October 31, the 2601 log contract opened at 785, with the lowest at 783, the highest at 796.5, and closed at 787.5, with a daily reduction of 844 lots. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a de - stocking pattern [11]. Steel Futures - After the China - US summit, the market sentiment driven by macro - expectations has cooled down, and the steel price is returning to the industrial reality. In early November, the steel demand may not continue to grow, and the steel price may show a volatile trend [11]. Alumina Futures - The supply of alumina is still relatively large, but the output may be forced to converge as the spot price approaches the cost line. The demand for alumina is stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is close to the industry upper limit and has a high operating rate [12]. Aluminum Futures - The supply of alumina is relatively large, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting plants have good profits. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the warming of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries [12].

美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔，尽管中美达成贸易临时协议，美方仍将继续调查中国是否遵守特朗普第一任期内达成的贸易协定。该调查基于《1974 年贸易 法》第 301 条款进行，可能为美国对中国商品征收新关税提供法律依据。 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆回应称，希望双方落实两国元首达成的重要共识，在平等、尊重、互惠基础上通过对话协商推动中美关系稳定发展。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent dialogue between the US and China in Busan, where the US agreed to reduce tariffs on fentanyl-related products from 20% to 10% and suspend additional trade taxes on China, aiming to support US agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [1] - Despite the positive developments, US Trade Representative Tai announced that the Section 301 investigation into China will continue, raising doubts about the US's sincerity and creating further uncertainties for future trade cooperation [1][3] - The political motivations behind the Trump administration's actions are significant, as they view any trade agreement that does not reflect a strong stance as a failure, using the Section 301 investigation as a political tool to pressure China for more concessions [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has responded pragmatically to the US's strategies, demonstrating its commitment to maintaining stable US-China economic relations while ensuring its own interests, such as by suspending rare earth export restrictions [3][5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has indicated that the continuation of the Section 301 investigation could lead to new frictions and adjustments in tariffs, emphasizing the importance of US-China economic cooperation for countless businesses and families [5] - Strengthening communication and transparency in the implementation of agreements is essential to reduce misunderstandings and conflicts, while exploring broader cooperation areas like climate change and public health can help build a more solid foundation for collaboration [6]

Group 1 - Recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur show a more relaxed atmosphere, with US farmers expressing a desire for cooperation rather than confrontation [1] - US soybean prices have plummeted nearly 60% compared to two years ago, leading to over 200 farm bankruptcies this year, with some farmers expecting losses exceeding $400,000 [3] - The majority of US farmers, traditionally Republican supporters, are now openly questioning Trump's tariff policies, indicating a shift in sentiment due to the economic impact of the trade war [5] Group 2 - China has become a crucial market for US agricultural products, with Brazilian soybeans now accounting for over 70% of China's imports, leaving US farmers with dwindling market share [3] - Recent purchases of 180,000 tons of US soybeans by COFCO signal a potential shift in trade dynamics, possibly leading to larger-scale purchases if an agreement is reached [7] - The upcoming US-China meeting on October 30 is seen as a critical moment for addressing agricultural trade issues, with soybean purchases being a key topic [9]

Group 1 - The announcement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce following the China-US summit indicates a significant shift in trade relations, with both sides agreeing to a "mutual pause" on tariffs and trade investigations [4][5][12] - The US has canceled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and suspended the 301 investigation into China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding industries for one year, while also pausing the previously imposed 24% equivalent tariffs [4][5] - In response, China has also suspended corresponding countermeasures, which stabilizes order flows for affected industries and potentially lowers logistics costs for consumers, benefiting the overall market [5][8] Group 2 - China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, having already bought approximately 180,000 tons in three batches, which is a strategic move to control costs amid rising prices from Brazilian imports [7][8] - The stability in soybean prices will directly impact consumer goods prices, including cooking oil and meat products, ultimately benefiting ordinary consumers [8][10] - The announcement also includes a "mutual pause" on export controls related to rare earth elements, with the US suspending the recently introduced 50% export penetration rule, which had aimed to restrict products with any US technology content from being exported to China [12][14] Group 3 - The mutual pauses in trade measures are seen as a strategic move rather than a concession, allowing both sides to maintain leverage while addressing market demands [10][16] - China plans to use the year of suspension to refine its export control rules and processes, ensuring that it can respond effectively if the US reintroduces restrictions [16][18] - The US's willingness to negotiate is driven by its own economic interests, as American farmers and tech companies have faced significant losses due to trade tensions, highlighting a shift from unilateral pressure to mutual constraints in US-China relations [20][23] Group 4 - The focus of the announcement is on protecting China's chip industry, emphasizing the importance of maintaining export rights for Chinese semiconductor companies rather than merely increasing imports [27][28] - The Chinese semiconductor industry has developed competitive capabilities, and any US export restrictions could adversely affect its international market presence, making the protection of these companies crucial for China's technological autonomy [28][30]

Core Points - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. is seen as a significant victory for China, with the U.S. forced to cancel planned tariffs and restrictions on Chinese goods, indicating a major shift in U.S.-China relations [1][8] - The agreement includes the suspension of tariffs and export controls, which reflects a mutual concession from both sides [3][7] - The outcome of the negotiations may lead to a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, focusing more on domestic issues rather than competition with China [10][8] Summary of Key Measures - The U.S. will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% equivalent tariffs for one year, while China will adjust its retaliatory tariffs accordingly [3] - The U.S. will pause the implementation of new export control rules for one year, and China will also suspend its related measures [3] - The U.S. will halt the 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, with corresponding suspensions from China [3] Implications for Global Trade - The agreement signifies a notable improvement in U.S.-China trade relations, which may lead to increased competition in European markets [1][11] - The failure of certain U.S. officials, particularly Commerce Secretary Ross, to maintain a hardline stance on China may result in their marginalization within the Trump administration [10] - European countries, particularly the Netherlands, face significant repercussions from the thawing U.S.-China relations, as their previous actions may have disrupted global supply chains [10][11]

Group 1 - The US dollar remains strong, supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and high US Treasury yields, with the dollar index approaching 99.70 [1] - The euro is under pressure due to economic weakness and easing expectations, leading to a continuous decline against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen has fallen below 154.50 against the dollar, reaching a new low for the year, raising speculation about potential official intervention [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are struggling to maintain momentum, hovering above the $4000 mark, with a brief breakout followed by a retreat due to reduced appeal of non-yielding assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are a focal point, with officials maintaining a hawkish tone and emphasizing the need for patience in addressing inflation [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70%, impacting the strength of the dollar and putting pressure on non-US currencies and precious metals [1] Group 3 - US-China trade relations continue to be a significant factor in market volatility, with short-term uncertainties likely to suppress market sentiment, while potential improvements could boost global economic recovery in the long term [2] - The European Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged, with President Lagarde indicating that euro appreciation may reduce inflationary pressures, suggesting a cautious policy outlook [2] - The Japanese government emphasizes the importance of exchange rate stability, with expectations of potential measures to prevent excessive depreciation of the yen [2] Group 4 - Global stock markets have generally risen, particularly in the US, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices recording weekly gains, driven by strong performance in technology stocks [2] - Despite the hawkish Fed and a strong dollar potentially limiting gains, risk appetite in the market has improved [2] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data, are anticipated to provide further insights into economic direction [2] Group 5 - The overall market dynamics this week are shaped by a strong dollar, adjustments in Fed policy expectations, gold price fluctuations, and trade tensions [3] - The dollar maintains its dominant position, while gold shows weak rebound potential, with European and Japanese policy signals becoming new focal points for observation [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor Fed communications, economic data, and US-China negotiation progress, as these factors will continue to influence short-term market sentiment and direction [3]

Core Insights - The recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur signal a commitment to dialogue and cooperation rather than confrontation, providing a boost to the global economy [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S. will eliminate the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% tariff on Chinese products, easing some economic pressure on China [3] - Both countries agreed to pause their respective export control measures, including investigations into maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, allowing for a temporary respite [3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The negotiations reveal a consensus based on mutual respect and equal consultation, indicating a shift in international dynamics where the U.S. is perceived to be losing its dominant position [4] - China's strategic patience and adaptability in global affairs are highlighted, showcasing its ability to leverage its strengths to compel the U.S. to acknowledge its status [6] Group 3: Rare Earths and Global Positioning - China has decided to temporarily suspend new regulations on rare earth export controls, maintaining its dominant position in this critical sector [6] - This move sends a strong signal that China possesses retaliatory capabilities against external pressures, emphasizing the potential costs for the U.S. if it continues its aggressive stance [6] Group 4: Future Cooperation - The outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur negotiations reflect a broader response to globalization, with countries seeking paths for cooperation and development [8] - If both nations continue to engage in dialogue based on equality and mutual benefit, it could lead to a new phase of development in both economic and international order restructuring [8]

Report Information - Report Name: "豆粕月报" [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: "升水修复，重新起航", "阶段性协议达成 豆粕谨慎偏强" [4][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: Important data such as the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans and the adjustment of the new-season yield per unit are unavailable due to the US government shutdown. Based on weather conditions, there is room for a downward adjustment of the new-season US soybean yield per unit, and the new-season US soybeans may experience a certain reduction in production. In late October, China and the US reached a phased trade agreement. If implemented as the US announced, US soybean export data is expected to return to normal levels, reducing the pressure on the ending stocks of new-season US soybeans. In Brazil, the new-season sowing is progressing orderly, with the possibility of a record-high yield. Global soybean supply is abundant due to Brazil's continuous output [7][62]. - Demand side: In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Terminal demand is relatively stable, with high inventories of pigs and laying hens. Although there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, it does not affect the short - to medium - term demand for feed. Future demand may fluctuate periodically but is generally optimistic [7][62]. - Outlook: The 01 basis of spot ran at a low level in October and is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the cost of imported soybeans in China and significantly boosting the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [7][62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [7][63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [7][63] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - US: Due to the government shutdown, the October USDA report is missing. According to the September report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 acres. The harvest area is about 80.3 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 580,000 acres. The yield per unit is adjusted from 53.6 bushels to 53.5 bushels. The ending stocks of the 25/26 US soybean season are 300 million bushels. Considering the relatively low harvest area and dry weather in the main producing areas from August to September, there is a possibility of a downward adjustment of yield per unit and production [9]. - South America: The USDA maintains the production of this season's Brazilian soybeans at 169 million tons, with an expected increase to 175 million tons in the next season. The production of Argentina is 50.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.69 million tons [9]. - Growth Progress and Good - to - Excellent Rate: As of September 28, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%. As of October 24, the US soybean harvest rate was estimated to be between 80% - 88%. As of October 25, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The planting rate in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, reached 60.05% as of October 24 [10]. - Weather: The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the impact of previous weather will be reflected after the resumption of reports. The market is focusing on the weather in Brazil. Overall, the sowing progress of the new season is expected to be normal [10]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 102.1 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In September, Brazil exported 7.398 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 21.2%. ANEC expects exports in October to be around 7 million tons. After the China - US phased agreement, Brazilian soybean exports may decline to a relatively low level [17][20]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 51.03 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In July 2025, the US exported 1.751 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 17%. If China purchases US soybeans as announced, US soybean exports are expected to remain stable, but the actual situation remains to be observed [21]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Crushing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - In September, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative soybean imports were 1086.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. It is expected that this year will break the record of soybean import volume. The procurement volume in the fourth - quarter shipping period is insufficient, and the port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then gradually decrease [30][32]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Crushing and Inventory - Crushing Profit: In late October, the external CBOT soybeans fluctuated strongly, while the domestic soybean meal price was relatively weak, and the overall crushing profit weakened. As of October 30, the spot and disk crushing gross margins of Brazilian imported soybeans in November were - 207 yuan/ton and - 252 yuan/ton respectively; for US Gulf soybeans in November, the spot and disk crushing gross margins were - 237 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [43]. - Crushing Volume and Operating Rate: As of the week of October 24, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 66.39%, and the actual crushing volume was 2.0485 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate and crushing volume will decrease in the future [43]. - Soybean Inventory: As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 6.9349 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week. The soybean inventory will remain high and enter the seasonal destocking stage after November [44]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Breeding 3.3.1 Trading and Inventory of Soybean Meal - As of October 24, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 940,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and future demand is generally optimistic [49]. 3.3.2 Pig Breeding - Breeding Profit: As of October 31, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the profit per purchased piglet was - 179.72 yuan/head [53]. - Pig Slaughter: From October to December this year, the month - on - month increase or decrease rates of pig slaughter are expected to be 3.1%, - 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively. From now until May next year, it will be basically stable or slightly increasing [53]. - Feed Production: In September, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to September 2025, the total national industrial feed production was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [54]. 3.3.3 Poultry Breeding - Broilers: At the end of October, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.26 yuan/kg, slightly stronger. The short - term market supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [58]. - Laying Hens: In October, the breeding profit continued to be weak. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [59]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The basis of spot is expected to fluctuate narrowly in November. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [63]