Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S.-China trade relations and the implications of the fifth round of economic talks between the two countries. Core Insights and Arguments - **Progress in U.S.-China Talks**: The fifth round of economic talks in Kuala Lumpur showed significant progress on key issues such as tariff reductions, procurement agreements, and cooperation on fentanyl enforcement, indicating a move towards more substantive discussions compared to previous meetings [2][3][4] - **Tariff Suspension**: The U.S. is likely to extend the tariff suspension period until mid-November, and some aggressive measures, such as software controls, will be temporarily paused [3][4] - **Fentanyl Export Reduction**: A preliminary consensus was reached on fentanyl, with an expected reduction of about 10% in exports, although complete cancellation remains challenging [3][4] - **Agricultural Trade**: China is expected to purchase U.S. soybeans, with potential procurement amounts reaching $50 billion, reflecting a shift towards rationalized trade relations [3][17] - **Leadership Visits**: Key dates for leadership visits were established, with Trump planning to visit China before the Lunar New Year in 2026 and the Chinese President attending the G20 summit in the U.S. later that year, indicating frequent high-level interactions [5][26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **U.S. Agricultural Pressure**: The U.S. is exerting pressure on China to increase agricultural purchases, particularly soybeans, due to a significant drop in Chinese imports since March [7][8] - **Supreme Court Challenges**: The Trump administration faces legal challenges regarding tariff policies, with the Supreme Court reviewing cases that could potentially overturn these tariffs, significantly impacting trade strategies [10][11][12] - **Market Reactions**: The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, with strong performances from major companies, suggesting a potential soft landing for the economy despite tariff impacts [21][22] - **Global Investment Climate**: The global investment environment is improving, aided by easing tensions in U.S.-China relations and a cooling of geopolitical conflicts, which may enhance investor confidence [23] - **Future Trade Dynamics**: If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, it could lead to a rebound in U.S.-China trade, particularly in agricultural sectors, while also affecting U.S. fiscal policies [15][19] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing developments in U.S.-China trade relations and their broader implications for the market and economy.

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that a face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the US and China will take place on October 30 in South Korea during the APEC summit, marking the first such meeting during Trump's second term [2][4] - Prior to the summit, there will be ministerial-level consultations focusing on resolving differences regarding China's rare earth export controls and the US's expanded sanctions against Chinese companies [2][4] - The US delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and USTR representative Jamieson Greer, while the Chinese side will be represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng [4] Group 2 - The issue of fentanyl control has been highlighted as a priority topic for discussion during the upcoming summit, with the US accusing China of insufficient measures against fentanyl smuggling [6] - The US has imposed an additional 20% tariff on China, citing concerns over fentanyl trafficking, and a commitment from China to enhance control over precursor materials could ease tensions [6] - Recent escalations in US-China relations are attributed to China's expanded rare earth export controls and the US's plans to impose port fees on Chinese vessels, although these measures have not yet been fully implemented [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the short - term has certain support due to large domestic supply pressure, high soybean inventory, no improvement in US soybean imports, and the arrival of the soybean meal destocking season. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to wait and see for clearer production signals [6][8]. - For sugar, with the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere and high production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall view is bearish, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices drives the futures price to rebound, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short term [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound slightly but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [16][18]. - For pigs, the market may be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but in the medium - term, considering the theoretical increase in supply, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to sell [20][21]. Summary by Categories Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean exports are expected to improve due to negotiations with India and Japan. Trump mentioned soybeans as a key topic in China - US negotiations. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the price in East China at around 2,890 yuan/ton. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week. Port soybean inventories began to decline, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume to be 2.3335 million tons this week, up from 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, higher than last week (11.1%) but lower than the five - year average (27.7%) [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term has certain support, but in the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month, and the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% compared to the same period last month. The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending inventory will decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons. On Thursday, domestic oils declined, pressured by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. It may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to wait and see for clearer production signals [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan, it remained unchanged. The mainstream price of processed sugar decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. Datagro estimates that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the next season will reach 43.2 million tons, an increase of 1.78 million tons compared to the current season. Brazil's national oil company lowered the gasoline price by 4.9%. Brazil exported 2.334 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of October, a 6% increase compared to the daily average export volume in October last year [10]. - **Strategy**: With the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere and high production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall view is bearish, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The spot price of cotton also rose slightly. On October 22, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton continued to rise [13]. - **Strategy**: Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices drives the futures price to rebound, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short term [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight increase. The supply was normal, the market sales were average, and the downstream procurement was stable. It is expected that most egg prices will remain stable, and a few may rise [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound slightly but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs was average, and the demand side was affected by factors such as slaughterhouses reducing production to cut losses and the decline in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price in the north may decline slightly, and in the south, it will stop rising and stabilize [20]. - **Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but in the medium - term, considering the theoretical increase in supply, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to sell [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着中美贸易谈判公布时间表，豆类市场情绪发生转变。目前国内 12 月份和 1 月份船期 尚有大量采购缺口未完成，随着中美贸易关系的缓和预期渐强，美豆出口前景预期改善推动美豆期价 迎来反弹，进口大豆成本攀升预期影响市场交易情绪。随着前期空头资金出现部分获利了结，期价反 弹压力减轻，豆类期价迎来止跌反弹走势。但现货市场跟涨幅度有限，市场尚未全面回暖，短期期价 反弹空间受到制约。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a corrective phase, with potential for further downside but increasing interest from bottom - fishing funds. The market is awaiting the results of Sino - US negotiations and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data [12]. - The stock market was boosted by expectations of incremental policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will remain the focus, and there is a need to strengthen domestic demand expansion [2]. - The decline in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Intel's improved financial results have boosted the technology sector, and Sino - US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise. Investors are advised to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25]. - The price of cotton is affected by factors such as new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices, and investors are advised to buy on dips [33]. - The pig market is expected to experience seasonal demand improvement, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year. Investors are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts [34]. - The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [38]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [49]. - The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived. Investors are advised to wait and see [73]. - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Sino - US trade negotiations will be held in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [12]. - Comment: Gold prices rebounded slightly but are still in a corrective phase. The market is awaiting negotiation results and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data. - Investment Advice: Gold is expected to be in an oscillatory phase with potential for further downside. Observe the support at the $4000 level [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican bill to pay military and federal employees during the government shutdown; US banking reserves decreased to $2.93 trillion; Trump plans to expand drug - fighting targets to land [13][14][15]. - Comment: The decrease in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to increased market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar index is expected to be volatile [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks in Malaysia from October 24 - 27; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique [18][19]. - Comment: The stock market was boosted by policy expectations, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will be the focus, and domestic demand expansion needs to be strengthened [2]. - Investment Advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks; Intel's Q3 revenue increased by 3% year - on - year, and it returned to profitability [22]. - Comment: Intel's results improved the technology sector, and Sino - US negotiations increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - Investment Advice: The US stock market will be volatile in the short term due to Sino - US negotiation news but should be treated with a bullish outlook overall [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique; the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 212.5 billion yuan [24]. - Comment: The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise [25]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: EU clothing import growth declined in August; CCI cotton procurement in India is accelerating; Xinjiang cotton purchase prices are rising [27][29][30]. - Comment: The price of cotton is affected by new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Investment Advice: The upside space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. Monitor new cotton acquisitions, downstream orders, and Sino - US negotiations [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The Indonesian military seized palm plantations, affecting 30% of the country's palm oil - growing area [32]. - Comment: Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices [33]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Wens Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 5.256 billion yuan in the first three quarters; Tangrenshen is implementing its production plan [33][34]. - Comment: Seasonal demand improvement may lead to a short - term rebound in pig prices, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year [34]. - Investment Advice: Look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts and continue to monitor the reverse spread strategy [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - News: The price of red dates in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market is stable; Xinjiang red dates are in the drying stage, and the acquisition price will be determined in the next week [36][37]. - Comment: The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and the main trading logic is not clear [38]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - News: National railway coal shipments reached 1.553 billion tons from January to September [40]. - Comment: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - Investment Advice: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported [40]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: FMG's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 50.8 million tons, with a 7% quarterly decline and a 6% annual increase [41]. - Comment: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - Investment Advice: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile and is relatively weak in the sector [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: China's rebar production in the first three quarters was 143.387 million tons; the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.741 million tons last week [42][43]. - Comment: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - Investment Advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [45]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - News: Century Aluminum's smelter in Iceland shut down temporarily due to a power equipment failure, affecting about 2 million tons of alumina demand annually [45]. - Comment: The overseas smelter shutdown has affected alumina demand, and the market is under pressure [45]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: A French highway tested the "charging - while - driving" technology for electric vehicles; Vale plans to invest 70 billion reais to expand copper production [47][48]. - Comment: The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term [49]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million; Qingyuan offers a 500 - yuan subsidy for electric bicycle trade - ins [50][51]. - Comment: The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - Investment Advice: Short - sell on rallies, and consider mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: Boliden's Q3 2025 lead - zinc concentrate production increased; the number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million [55][56]. - Comment: The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Australia's Western Mines Group is conducting a general study on its Mulga Tank nickel project [59]. - Comment: The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Do - fluoride plans to ship 30GWh of lithium batteries in 2026; EVE Energy's power battery shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 were 34.59GWh [62][63]. - Comment: The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - Investment Advice: Short - term range trading, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - News: China's weekly liquefied petroleum gas production decreased by 2.65% week - on - week; the inventory rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points [65][66]. - Comment: The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - News: China's weekly asphalt production decreased by 110,000 tons week - on - week, a 2% decline [68]. - Comment: The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - News: Iran's Kimiya methanol plant restarted [70]. - Comment: The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - News: US natural gas inventory increased by 87Bcf week - on - week [73]. - Comment: The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived [73]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally; the overall开工 load rate increased slightly [75]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - Investment Advice: Short - selling should be cautious [76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC in the domestic market was slightly volatile, and the overall开工 load rate decreased [77][78]. - Comment: The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - News: China's weekly styrene production decreased by 124,000 tons week - on - week, a 3.65% decline [79]. - Comment: The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - Investment Advice: Monitor the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday [81]. - Comment: The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - Investment Advice: The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches. Continue to monitor [82]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The inventory of float glass manufacturers continued to increase, with a 3.64% week - on - week increase [83]. - Comment: The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy and its strategic planning under the "Fifteen Plan" (十五规划), focusing on maintaining economic growth and addressing challenges in various sectors, particularly technology and real estate. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the "Fifteen Plan" is expected to be set above the potential growth rate, reflecting a commitment to maintaining necessary growth levels [3][4][6]. 2. **Role of Technology Innovation**: Technology innovation is emphasized as a core component of the "Fifteen Plan," with increased fiscal support directed towards enterprises and industries to enhance their innovative capabilities [4][5]. 3. **Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies**: The implementation of macroeconomic stabilization policies aims to reduce market volatility and provide greater certainty for capital markets, thereby boosting investor confidence [6][7]. 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: The Chinese economy is currently facing deflationary pressures, particularly in the manufacturing and export sectors. Solutions include enhancing pricing power through supply-side adjustments [7][8]. 5. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: The domestic market is under pressure, especially due to real estate issues and a slowdown in urbanization. Future urbanization efforts may focus on less developed regions to promote balanced development [8][9]. 6. **Unified National Market**: The establishment of a unified national market aims to address issues of chaotic low-price competition and promote positive price adjustments, which will support supply-side reforms [9][10]. 7. **Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is designed to maintain a strong stance, with a nominal deficit rate of 4% and an actual deficit rate projected to remain around 10%, focusing on social welfare and transfer payments [10][11]. 8. **Employment Market Challenges**: The employment market faces challenges, particularly for low-skilled workers and recent graduates. Measures include subsidies for job stability and skills training [12][13]. 9. **International Trade Dynamics**: China's technology sector is expected to gain competitiveness, reducing reliance on U.S. trade, which enhances China's position in global trade dynamics [14][15][16]. 10. **Diversification of Trade Partners**: There is a trend towards diversifying trade partners, with increased trade with developing countries, particularly in Africa, to mitigate the impacts of changing U.S.-China trade relations [18]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of aligning fiscal policies with social needs and adjusting the central-local fiscal relationship to alleviate local financial pressures [11][12]. - The discussion on the semiconductor industry indicates that China is on track to become a major player in chip exports, reflecting significant advancements in technology [16][17]. - The strategic approach to U.S.-China relations emphasizes a balance between responding to U.S. actions and maintaining a stable economic environment [17][18].

【豆一】 国产大豆主力再度上涨，跟随海外市场走强,市场预期转乐观,对贸易谈判给予期待。本国国产大豆仍然进行 了竞价拍卖,并有一定的成交量,成交价格在3900元/吨,跟上周成交价格持平。市场参与主体在积极收购新 粮。国产大豆和进口大豆价差经过近期走扩之后震荡整理。美豆方面市场在关注贸易谈判的指引。短期持续关 注政策端指引。 | | | | VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年10月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ななな | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | なな女 | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9757 | -77 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2339 | 32 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 389 260299 | 3 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) -2728 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 27 364445 | 19 -13022 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 7132 | -1570 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -103418 | 3684 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 7540 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 4702 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 626.7 | -2.5 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5341 | -93 | | 现货市场 | 现 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengzhou Cotton: Rising Cost of Cotton Lint [1][40] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] - Qualification Number: F0272777 [3] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0010085 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Trump's continuous signals have led the market to have positive expectations for China-US trade relations; as the domestic cotton harvest progresses, the market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward compared to the previous period, and the purchase price of seed cotton has steadily increased. Recently, both domestic and international cotton prices have rebounded, with Zhengzhou cotton showing stronger rebound momentum than US cotton. Although downstream demand remains lackluster, the rising price of seed cotton has increased the cost of cotton lint, and the hedging pressure range has shifted upward. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, but due to the expected high yield and average downstream demand, the upward space is currently limited [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Expectations and Production Estimates - Trump's signals have created positive expectations for China-US trade relations, which may boost cotton prices if favorable. The market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward due to concerns about the impact of rainfall and cooling in Xinjiang on cotton yield and quality [4][5]. - As of October 16, the national cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of machine-picked seed cotton has been rising steadily. As of the previous day, the purchase price index of machine-picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week; in northern Xinjiang, it was 6.21 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [5]. - As of October 21, the cumulative inspection of cotton lint in the 2025 cotton year nationwide was 97.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%, with Xinjiang accounting for 96.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [5][6]. Import and Inventory - In September, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 22,300 tons but a month-on-month increase of 22,300 tons. From January to September this year, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 million tons, a decline of 69.9%. In September, the import volume of cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and flat month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons, a decline of 7.7%. In terms of import proportion, Australian cotton had the highest import volume in September, and Vietnamese cotton yarn had the highest import volume [7]. - As of the end of September, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 660,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, it was 1.72 million tons, only slightly higher than at the end of September last year [7]. Price Trends - From October 15 to October 22, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,270 yuan/ton to 13,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton, while the price of the active contract of US cotton decreased from 63.83 cents/pound to 63.65 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.18 cents/pound [8]. - From October 14 to October 21, the Cotlook A price index rose from 74.95 cents/pound to 75.6 cents/pound, an increase of 0.65 cents/pound. From October 13 to October 20, the price of Indian S-6 cotton decreased from 54,200 rupees/candy to 52,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 1,300 rupees/candy [10]. - From October 15 to October 22, the port pick-up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - From October 15 to October 22, the arrival prices of imported cotton (1% tariff and sliding duty) from the US and Brazil increased to varying degrees [12]. Downstream Market - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of Keqiao Textile showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of raw materials (cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills) and finished products in the downstream market also showed different trends [37][39][42]. - The operating load of the downstream yarn and fabric industries also showed certain fluctuations [43][44]. Futures Market - As of Wednesday this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week. The price index of C32S cotton yarn increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week [46]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton price index under sliding duty and 1% tariff increased week-on-week. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick-up price increased week-on-week [48]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week-on-week, and the loss of the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn widened week-on-week [49]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2,851, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 [55].

| | 1、巴西植物油行业协会Abiove预测该国2025/26年度大豆产量将达到创纪录的1.785亿吨，高于 | | --- | --- | | | 去年的1.718亿吨。2、印尼能源部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，印尼2025年1-9月生物柴油消费量 | | 行业 | 为1057万公升，较去年同期的961万公升增加近10%。3、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数 | | 信息 | 据，马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加10.77%，其中马来半岛增加4.54%，沙巴增加 | | | 21.99%，沙捞越增加16.69%，婆罗洲增加20.45%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨，最新出口检验报告显示，截至2025年10月16日的一周，美国大豆 | | | 出口检验量为1,474,354吨，高于市场预期区间，较一周增长45%。巴西新季大豆播种有序推进， | | | 根据AgRural数据截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到24%，高于前一周的14%和去年同 | | | 期的18%。近期市场对于中美贸易关系缓和预期升温，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，市 | | | ...