继上半年汽车、光伏、钢铁、水泥等行业纷纷高举起"反内卷"大旗后，这一政策指向仍将成为下半年的 重点。 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议明确，要纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业 产能治理，规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活力。 部委层面，5月下旬，发改委新闻发布会上，发言人李超明确提到，针对内卷式竞争问题症结，发改委 因业施策、对症下药、标本兼治，化解重点产业结构性矛盾，促进产业健康发展和升级。5月底至6月 初，在中汽协发布"维护公平竞争秩序，促进行业健康发展"倡议书后，工信部随即发声，指出车企无 序"价格战"是"内卷式"竞争的典型表现，将加大整治力度，配合相关部门开展反不正当竞争执法。随 后，一汽、东风等17家重点车企作出的"支付账期不超过60天"承诺，工信部亦在7月初开通重点车企账 期问题反映窗口。7月3日，工信部召集14家光伏企业及行业协会负责人座谈，明确提出依法整治光伏行 业无序竞争，推动企业提升产品品质，促进落后产能有序退出。7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管 ...

Market Overview - The important indices mostly declined in the recent trading days from July 25 to July 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.90% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.73% [4] - The trading volume continued to increase, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 1.82 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 479.50 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [10] Policy and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The statements regarding employment and inflation remained consistent with previous meetings, indicating a cautious approach towards inflation risks [26] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) identified stabilizing the market as a primary task [27] Investment Strategy - The market is currently undergoing a consolidation phase, but there are mid-term upward opportunities due to policy support aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of the capital market and increasing capital inflows [27] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following sectors: 1. TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), biopharmaceuticals, and national defense industries, driven by AI and overseas expansion [27] 2. Financial sector opportunities in line with the goal of stabilizing the capital market [27] 3. Reallocation opportunities in power equipment and certain resource sectors due to capacity governance [27] Industry Performance - In the recent trading period, the majority of industries saw declines, with notable gains in the communication, biopharmaceutical, and electronics sectors, while coal, non-ferrous metals, and construction decoration sectors experienced significant declines [21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, with long - term supply potentially converging due to policy influence. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand in the short - term, with good long - term consumption expectations and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is advisable to engage in light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with accumulated industrial inventory and pressure on quotes. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,510 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,222 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,606 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 456,100 tons, up 1,825 tons [2]. - The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 0.03 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,580 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of alumina is 8 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 47.60 million tons, up 1.40 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - The primary aluminum import is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781 tons; the export is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons [2]. - The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.33, up 0.0469; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.27%, up 0.0024 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association will strictly control new capacities of copper smelting and alumina [2]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and Powell said it's too early to say whether to cut rates in September [2]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, exceeding expectations, and the core PCE price index rose 2.5% [2]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October and emphasized economic policies [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with reduced positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient and demand is stable, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is relatively stable, demand is weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both weak, and it's recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trades at high prices [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The non - US copper market's inventory is low, and the domestic copper inventory is falling, supporting copper prices. However, the demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. For zinc, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is bearish, and short - selling is recommended. Tin has a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - selling positions can be reduced. Lead's price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [4][5][6][7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the domestic anti - involution profit - taking. The trade negotiation has reached many phased agreements, and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic policies. The non - ferrous market is in shock, and attention should be paid to the possible adverse impact of the trade situation and tariff increase [12][13] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium may decline. The non - US market's inventory is low, and the domestic inventory is falling, supporting the price. The demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. The upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][14] - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. The upper pressure range is 22,800 - 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [5][14] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak, and short - selling is recommended. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [6][15] - **Tin**: The supply and demand are both weak, and short - selling positions can be reduced. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton [7][15] - **Lead**: The price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. The lower support range is 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure range is 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [17] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [20][22] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Graphs related to copper inventory, copper concentrate refining fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price are presented [26][27] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to zinc inventory, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market price, and galvanized sheet production seasonality are presented [29] - **Aluminum**: Graphs related to the relationship between aluminum inventory and price, LME aluminum inventory and price, and aluminum spot premium are presented [31][32] - **Alumina**: Graphs related to alumina spot price trend and alumina port inventory change are presented [37] - **Tin**: Graphs related to tin price and spot premium, tin inventory, and tin concentrate processing fees are presented [39][44] - **Lead**: Graphs related to lead concentrate processing fees, lead futures inventory, LME lead premium, and lead spot price are presented [47][48] - **Nickel**: Graphs related to nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium, and LME nickel premium are presented [51][53] - **Stainless Steel**: Graphs related to stainless steel futures inventory and stainless steel spot price are presented [57][58] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Graphs related to the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper are presented [59] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium are presented [61] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Graphs related to aluminum basis, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, the difference between Shanghai aluminum contracts, and the difference between alumina contracts are presented [64][67] - **Tin**: Graphs related to tin basis, the difference between tin contracts, and the tin Shanghai - London ratio are presented [67][69] - **Lead**: Graphs related to the difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead, and the lead Shanghai - London ratio are presented [70] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Graphs related to the nickel Shanghai - London ratio, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel, and the difference between nickel contracts are presented [73][74] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Graphs related to copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [76] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [78][79] - **Aluminum**: Graphs related to aluminum option trading volume, the ratio of call to put positions, historical volatility, and implied volatility are presented [81][83]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

记者丨曹恩惠 编辑丨张伟贤 实际上，多晶硅环节为了整治"内卷式"竞争，正在推进"收储"计划，即通过部分头部企业共同 出资收购除此之外的剩余产能，来强有力地推进产能整合。 就本周表现而言，价格小幅上涨的背后，多晶硅成交相对集中。硅业分会指出，本周多晶硅签 单企业数量维持在4—5家，且大多数成交量集中在头部两家企业，其余企业少量成交。而导致 价格小幅上升的主要原因，在于下游硅片价格回升，部分硅片企业库存压力减少，对上游硅料 价格提升的呈现一定的接受度。 但与前几周相比，本周多晶硅价格涨幅明显收窄。对此，硅业分会认为，主要对于当前的硅料 企业报价，绝大多数企业尚未实现规模性成交。 换言之， 当前多晶硅价格的反弹并未代表硅料需求实质性回暖。 目前，前期积压的库存仍是影响多晶硅价格走势的最大变量。根据硅业分会统计，7月份，国 内多晶硅产品约10.78万吨，前7个月累计产量70.49万吨，同比减少41.5%。这其中，在7月 份，出现了1家企业产能归零的情况，且根据各家企业排产安排，预计8月国内多晶硅产量约 12.5万吨。 若产能整合如期落地，硅业分会预测国内多晶硅年产能将减少至230万吨。而根据中国光伏行 业协会发布的统 ...

7月31日，焦炭期货震荡回落，截至发稿主力合约报1635.5元/吨，跌幅2.88%。 【消息面汇总】 据越南海关总署最新进出口商品数据显示，2025年6月份越南煤炭进口645.68万吨，环比下降10.38%， 同比增长1.44%。2025年1-6月，越南煤炭累计总进口3802.58万吨，同比增长13.26%。 上半年，陕煤运销集团累计销售煤炭1.42亿吨，同比增长2%，销售运行总体平稳、稳中有进，有力保 障了矿区产销平衡和下游用户需求。 7月30日下午，中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会，与会代表一致认为，当前焦炭市场 应尽快再次提涨价格。 机构观点 中州期货：总的来说，昨日中共中央政治局会议召开，表示依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业 产能治理。会议预期落地，并无超预期内容，盘面大幅回调，预计今日震荡运行。 建信期货：核查煤矿生产情况有利于稳定煤炭供应，有效治理煤炭行业低价无序竞争，对此煤炭市场供 需预期由6月份之前的供大于求，明显转为国内供应收缩，叠加5-6月份进口量降幅较大，洗煤厂库存明 显下滑，近期焦炭、焦煤期货价格大幅反弹并走高后明显回落，短期焦炭、焦煤期货价格或跟随钢材期 货，需关注 ...

展望后市，宁证期货表示，近期成本继续抬升，支撑钢价回调后再度反弹，但仍需警惕部分品种过度炒 涨引发的调整风险，淡季钢材需求也不稳定。短期钢价或高位震荡，涨跌反复的情况仍存。 宏观方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议分析研究当前经济形 势，部署下半年经济工作，要求依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理。 基本面上，铜冠金源期货分析称，关注午后钢联数据，预计产销偏弱格局维持。8月中旬北方将迎来阅 兵限产，供应收缩预期影响逐步增强。 7月31日，国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，螺纹钢期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约 报3229.00元/吨，跌幅3.47%。 现货方面，华联期货指出，7月30日全国主要城市HRB400E20MM螺纹钢报价小幅上涨，上海3440涨 10，广州3480涨30，天津3370涨10。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].

螺纹钢： 昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹2510合约收盘价格为3315元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌32元/ 吨，跌幅0.96%，持仓减少14.6万手。价格小幅波动，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格上涨30元/吨 至3180元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3400元/吨，全国建材成交量8.2万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周 全国建材产量回落3.07万吨至414.95万吨，社库增加4.61万吨至551.23万吨，厂库减少6.18万吨至299.58 万吨，建材表需回落18.69万吨至416.52万吨。建材产量继续小幅下降，库存略有降低，表需回落，市场 整体处于供需双弱局面。中共中央政治局指出，要依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治 理。目前螺纹供需基本面驱动不强，市场对于反内卷政策推进预期存在一定反复。预计短期螺纹盘面或 震荡整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 周三，硅铁期价高开低走，主力合约报收6008元/吨，环比上涨0.77%，主力合约持仓环比基本持平。各 地区72号硅铁汇总价5650-5700元/吨，内蒙古地区较前一日上调100元/吨、宁夏地区较前一日上调150 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体偏强，部分品种小幅下挫， ...