Group 1: Swine Industry - The average selling price of external three-yuan pigs in China on September 14 was 13.27 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.5% [1] - The average selling price of weaned piglets was 294 yuan/head, down 29 yuan/head week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1] - The average selling price of two-yuan sows was 1595 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head week-on-week, also a new low for the year [1] - The weak prices of piglets and sows reflect the industry's pessimistic expectations for pig prices in 2026 [1] - The expectation of upgraded capacity regulation in the industry is gaining traction, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" process [2] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of stable and high-quality development, with improved profitability for leading pig companies [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.26 yuan/chick, down 1.21% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.45 yuan/kg, down 1.15% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of chicken meat cuts was 8687.95 yuan/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week [3] - The seasonal rebound in July-August has ended, with continued ample supply of white chickens expected to be a theme for 2025 [3] - The average selling price of Qingjiao Ma chicken was 5.75 yuan, down 0.3% week-on-week, maintaining a high level for the year [3] - The industry turned profitable in August, with further profit increases expected in September, suggesting a focus on companies' third-quarter performance [3] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - The total sales of pet food on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin in August reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 19% [4] - Cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached 19.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [4] - Leading domestic brands showed significant growth, with Blue's, Honest Bite, and Fresh Lang increasing by 42%, 33%, and 27% year-on-year, respectively [4] - Overseas leading brands also saw growth, with Pro Plan, Royal Canin, and Orijen increasing by 45%, 28%, and 17% year-on-year, respectively [4]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in China on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter increased slightly to 128.32 kg as of the week ending September 11, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 kg [1][2] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig supply from sample enterprises, with expected increases of 1.29%, 4.11%, and 3.92% respectively, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Recent policies emphasize capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially raising the long-term price level of pigs [3] - Low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies are anticipated to gain excess returns as the industry adjusts [3] Group 3: Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattening bulls remained stable, with prices at 32.44 yuan/kg and 25.97 yuan/kg respectively as of September 12, showing a year-to-date increase of 35% and 10% [4] - The beef market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with a potential upward cycle anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [4] Group 4: Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend since late 2021, reaching 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 5, 2025, a cumulative decline of 31% from peak levels [5] - The ongoing losses in the dairy industry are leading to a reduction in production capacity, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [5] Group 5: Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased to 7.02 yuan/kg as of September 12, with a week-on-week decline of 0.20 yuan/kg due to increased supply [6] - Egg prices rebounded to an average of 7.15 yuan/kg from September 8-12, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 yuan/kg, driven by pre-festival stocking [6] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures and spot prices showed mixed trends, with futures at 3079 yuan/ton and spot prices at 3060 yuan/ton as of September 12 [7] - The USDA's supply and demand report slightly adjusted the forecast for U.S. soybean planting area and ending stocks, indicating ongoing market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the livestock sector is experiencing a positive trend due to capacity regulation policies, leading to a rise in related stocks and ETFs [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, is holding a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity regulation with 25 companies, including major players like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope [1] - Recent policies aimed at controlling new production capacity are helping the industry move away from low-price competition, guiding pig prices into a reasonable profit range [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF is currently trading at a low price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 14.95, which is below 80.76% of the time over the past three years, indicating a high safety margin [2] - There is potential for the livestock sector to experience a rebound if funds shift from high-performing technology stocks to lower-valued sectors [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd., Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, and Wujin Stainless Steel [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron production has rebounded to high levels, with daily production exceeding 2.4 million tons. Steel production has slightly decreased, but inventory accumulation has narrowed, suggesting a recovery in demand, although year-on-year demand remains weak. Steel profits are fluctuating around the breakeven point [2][3]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will be on capacity regulation, which is expected to be more precise this time, promoting the survival of the fittest among steel companies. The profitability of steel enterprises is anticipated to recover as new iron ore capacities are gradually released [2][3]. Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends: rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3,210 CNY/ton (down 50 CNY), high line (8.0mm) at 3,360 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY), hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3,450 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3,800 CNY/ton (unchanged), and medium plate (20mm) at 3,460 CNY/ton (unchanged) [1][9][10]. Production and Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the total production of five major steel products was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products increased by 174,100 tons to 10.9391 million tons [2][5]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.9807 million tons, down 40,000 tons week-on-week, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 103,100 tons, up 6.32% week-on-week [2][5]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have changed by -31 CNY/ton, +12 CNY/ton, and -8 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. The gross profit margin for electric arc furnace steel decreased by 11 CNY/ton [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. General Steel Sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd. 3. Pipe Materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel 4. High-Temperature Alloy: Fushun Special Steel [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][48]. Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.16% from August 29, 2025, to September 11, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 2.28 percentage points [2][9]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only animal health showing a negative return of -2.65%. The sectors of breeding, feed, fishery, agricultural product processing, and planting increased by 6.23%, 5.93%, 3.31%, 1.37%, and 0.45%, respectively [12][16]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 3.02 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 67.6 percentile since 2006 [19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the reporting period [9]. - Most sub-sectors achieved positive returns, with a notable performance in breeding and feed sectors [12][16]. - Approximately 62% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns [13]. Important Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 13.69 yuan/kg to 13.31 yuan/kg during the reporting period. The profit for self-bred pigs is 16.84 yuan/head, while the profit for purchased piglets is -161.93 yuan/head [22][26]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for meat chicken chicks is 3.25 yuan/chick, and for white feathered chickens, it is 7.02 yuan/kg, both showing slight declines [28][33]. - **Feed Costs**: As of September 11, 2025, corn prices are at 2365.49 yuan/ton, and soybean meal prices are at 3060 yuan/ton, with slight fluctuations noted [24][25]. Industry News - A meeting on pig production capacity regulation is scheduled for September 16, 2025, involving 25 leading companies to discuss current production conditions and future regulatory measures [37][38]. Company Insights - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, focusing on their market positions and growth potential in the current environment [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided text does not contain any information regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US consumer price increase exceeded expectations in August, but the market still maintains the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is weakening [1][20]. - Driven by the better - than - expected orders of US stock Oracle, domestic AI stocks led a strong rebound, but the market is expected to continue in a tug - of - war [2]. - The bond market rally caused by new bond issuance is short - term, and the market adjustment is not over. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the bond market in September [3][27]. - The market is concerned about the USDA monthly supply - demand report on Friday. CONAB has raised the production and export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans, and there is a possibility of a transition from ENSO neutral to La Nina [4]. - Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the near future due to inventory accumulation and lower - than - expected apparent demand [5]. - For zinc, maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory truly bottoms out, and the short - selling logic of SHFE zinc may be realized through the rise of LME zinc [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The US initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 23, 2021, and the CPI in August rebounded as expected [13][14][15]. - Short - term gold prices lack the impetus to break through, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary plans to add candidates to the Fed Chair list. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, and the US CPI rose in August [17][18][19]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline as the market maintains the interest rate cut expectation despite the rise in CPI [20][21]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - There are rumors that Mexico may impose a 50% tariff on Chinese - exported cars. The State Council approved 10 pilot projects for factor market - oriented reform [22][23]. - Domestic AI stocks led a rebound, but the market is expected to be in a tug - of - war. It is recommended to pay attention to trading volume changes and control long positions [2][23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CPI in August was basically in line with expectations. The labor market supports the Fed to continue interest rate cuts, and the market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year [25]. - US stocks are expected to be volatile and bullish under the interest rate cut expectation, but market volatility may increase [25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. A new 7 - year bond will be issued [26]. - The bond market rally due to new bond issuance is short - term. The market adjustment is not over. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the bond market in September [3][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB raised the production and export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans. Analysts expect the NOPA member soybean crushing volume in August to be 182.857 million bushels, and the import soybean auction was fully sold [29][30][31]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report on Friday [32]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [33]. - The uncertainty in the oil market has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rates of the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries increased, while the operating rates of the starch sugar industry decreased [34][35]. - In addition to weak supply and demand, regional price differences are also unfavorable to the rice - flour price difference in the short term [36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date prices in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market were stable. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose by 2.14% [36][37]. - Red date prices are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and pre - festival replenishment [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The consumption of corn in deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and the raw material inventory decreased. The price of new corn in North China is weakening, while that in the Northeast remains strong [38]. - It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on corn in the medium term [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [39]. - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies and have a bullish view on far - month contracts [40]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on September 11. The coal price is expected to continue to be weak due to weak thermal power demand and no new production control policies [41]. - The steam coal price is expected to continue to be weak [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American and Teck Resources will merge equally. The iron ore price is in a volatile market, and the raw material end has short - term support but faces upward pressure [43]. - Attention should be paid to the peak season in September - October and the pressure on steel mills to cut production [44]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 139,100 tons week - on - week. Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the near future [47]. - It is recommended to have a bearish view on steel prices in the short term [48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale plans to increase copper production through self - development. Panama plans to evaluate the restart of First Quantum's copper mine. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year [49][50][51]. - The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. It is recommended to have a bullish strategy on the single - side and wait and see on the arbitrage [52]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shandong's new energy mechanism electricity price bidding results were announced. Polysilicon production restrictions started in September. The price increase of upstream products has not been smoothly transmitted to the terminal, and the photovoltaic terminal demand may decline [53][54]. - The futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [55]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project passed the energy - saving review. The price of industrial silicon is expected to be in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton in the short term [56][57]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities [57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a deep discount, and the domestic lead social inventory decreased slightly. The lead price is expected to be volatile and weak [58]. - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage opportunity before delivery [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. Maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory truly bottoms out [59][60]. - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity, and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Weiming Shengqing sold 3,526 tons of high - purity nickel plates in the first half of the year. The global nickel inventory is increasing, and the nickel price is expected to be volatile in the short term [61]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position trading in the range [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's Jiaxiaowo lithium mine plans to resume production. The battery export in August decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. The market may quickly price in the resumption of production, but the price decline is limited before the actual resumption [63][64][65]. - It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies and reverse arbitrage in the medium term [66]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of domestic LPG increased, and the inventory increased. The LPG market has limited drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [67][68][69]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on September 11 was 63.28 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The CEA price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [70]. - The CEA price has room to fall in the short term [71]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is moderate. The price may decline in the future [72][73]. - The increase of caustic soda spot price may be near the end, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [73]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was stable. The pulp market is expected to be weak and volatile due to poor fundamentals [74][75][76]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted. The PVC market is under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [77]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was stable. The PX supply - demand is expected to be in a de - stocking pattern in the medium - long term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [78][79][80]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. The PTA price is expected to be volatile and the upward space is limited [81][82][83]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene decreased. The short - term port inventory accumulation pressure of styrene has been alleviated, and the 2510 contract is in a volatile state [84][85]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable. The downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the off - season, and the processing fee is under pressure [87][88]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was oscillating. The soda ash price is expected to be short - term weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [89][90]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market decreased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and short on SA2601 [91][92]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM will not impose the "301 surcharge". The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the 10 - contract still has downward space [93].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural products industry [13]. Core Insights - The swine breeding industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable phase, with medium to long-term capacity control becoming the new norm, positively impacting the industry. Profits for quality enterprises are expected to significantly increase, with a favorable long-term outlook for the sector [4][21]. - Key recommendations include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture in the swine breeding sector. In the pet food segment, the report highlights the rapid growth of domestic brands such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. The feed industry is also experiencing a recovery, with Haida Group's domestic market share increasing and overseas business growing rapidly [4][21]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - In the first half of 2025, the revenue of listed companies in the swine breeding sector increased by 19% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 512%. The average swine price decreased by 4% year-on-year, but profits surged due to improved breeding costs. The industry's free cash flow improved significantly, totaling approximately 18.3 billion yuan, compared to a negative 3.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [8][23]. - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising was about 73 yuan per head, a significant improvement from a loss of 25 yuan per head in the previous year [23]. Feed Industry - The feed sector saw a revenue increase of 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a 70.9% increase in non-recurring net profit. The total feed production reached 159 million tons, up 8% year-on-year. Haida Group's feed sales volume grew by 26% year-on-year, and the company is expected to see further growth in shrimp and crab feed in the third quarter [9][22]. Pet Food - The pet food sector's revenue grew by 22.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a 19.2% increase in non-recurring net profit. Domestic sales for Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. are expected to grow by over 40% in Q2. However, exports of pet snacks faced a decline due to tariffs, with a 52% drop in exports to the U.S. [10][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August, and the decline in PPI year - on - year has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating that the previous production - limiting measures of upstream state - owned enterprises are taking effect, but the foundation for PPI recovery is not solid [7][8]. - For the pig sector, there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term weakness is difficult to change, and the idea of large reverse arbitrage is maintained [10]. - For the soybean meal sector, it is in a rebound and oscillation state. The price is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the market is trading time for space [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Research 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The non - farm payrolls are revised downwards. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is rising. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: The US dollar is under pressure, and the price rises. The trend intensity is 1 [14][22]. - Zinc: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][25]. - Lead: The inventory decreases, which supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][28]. - Tin: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][31]. - Aluminum: It runs strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Alumina: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Nickel: It runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. 3.1.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production. The trend intensity is - 1 [14][44]. 3.1.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The Inner Mongolia meeting increases news - based disturbances. The trend intensity is 0 [14][47]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [14][47]. 3.1.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][50]. - Rebar: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][52]. - Hot - rolled coil: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][53]. - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Coke: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][60]. - Coking coal: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][61]. 3.1.6 Forest Products - Logs: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is not provided [14][63]. 3.1.7 Chemicals - p - Xylene: It rebounds in the short term, and the monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PTA: The monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - MEG: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Rubber: It oscillates in a wide range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Synthetic rubber: It oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Asphalt: Refineries resume production stably, and the shipment in the north slows down. No trend intensity provided [14]. - LLDPE: It has a medium - term oscillating market. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PP: It oscillates in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Caustic soda: It is not advisable to chase short. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Pulp: It oscillates strongly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Methanol: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Urea: It oscillates weakly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Styrene: It is strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market. No trend intensity provided [14]. 3.1.8 Energy - LPG: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the potential supply risk increases. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Propylene: The supply device fluctuates, and the spot trading price rises. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Fuel oil: It oscillates narrowly at night, showing a short - term adjustment trend. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows again. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. 3.1.9 Agricultural Products - Short - fiber: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Bottle chips: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pure benzene: It is strong in the short term and weakly oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Palm oil: The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it corrects in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean oil: The US soybean oil policy is uncertain, and there are limited themes for soybean oil. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed down overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean: It rebounds after over - decline. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Corn: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to Brazil's exports. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listing. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Eggs: It oscillates in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pigs: The spot is weak, and the policy is strong. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. No trend intensity provided [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand due to environmental production restrictions, with a focus on the recovery during peak demand seasons [3][4]. - Short-term impacts from environmental restrictions are expected to ease, leading to a gradual recovery in both supply and demand [3][4]. - Long-term capacity regulation remains a key theme, with expectations for more precise management to promote industry consolidation and improve profitability for steel companies [3][4]. Price Trends - As of September 5, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,260 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton from the previous week, while other products like high-line and cold-rolled steel saw price declines [1][9]. - The report notes that the average price changes for various steel products over the past month and year reflect a complex market environment, with some products experiencing price increases while others decline [10][24]. Production and Inventory - As of September 5, 2025, total steel production decreased to 8.61 million tons, a reduction of 239,600 tons week-on-week, with rebar production specifically down by 18,800 tons [2][3]. - Total social inventory of major steel products increased by 311,800 tons to 10.765 million tons, indicating a build-up in stock levels despite reduced production [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel margins, with estimated changes in gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel being -46 CNY/ton, -38 CNY/ton, and -36 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and companies like Xianlou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].

Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 49.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.48 billion yuan, a significant increase of 195.1% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 42.83% to 1.473 billion yuan [1] Operational Analysis - The company has made significant progress in reducing costs and increasing efficiency in pig farming, with H1 2025 pig output reaching 17.93 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and an average selling price of 14.93 yuan/kg. The comprehensive cost of pig farming was 12.4 yuan/kg in H1 2025, which is expected to decrease to below 12 yuan/kg by the end of the year [2] - The company sold 598 million yellow feathered chickens in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. Despite a decline in prices leading to losses, there is an expectation of profitability for the full year as prices have started to recover [2] - The company's debt ratio has been decreasing, with a debt ratio of 50.57% as of Q2 2025, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. This indicates a stable operational performance and potential for continued cost reduction [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 8.63 billion yuan, 13.26 billion yuan, and 15.29 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year changes of -6.5%, +53.7%, and +15.2% respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.3 yuan, 2.0 yuan, and 2.3 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 14X, 9X, and 8X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [3]