Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed positive performance, with glass futures main contract opening at 1252.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1282.00 CNY, marking a 3.81% increase [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a notice regarding the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass [1] - As of September 18, the float glass industry maintained an operating rate of 76.01% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08%, with a stable daily output of 160,200 tons [1] Group 2 - Huawen Futures indicated that as the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are concerned about price increases post-holiday, leading to passive inventory replenishment, which is expected to boost spot transaction volume and reinforce price increase expectations [1] - Zhongcai Futures noted that supply remains stable with limited changes in production capacity, while demand is driven by policy pushing up raw glass prices, leading to increased purchasing intentions from downstream sectors [2] - The market is currently experiencing a mix of price stability and upward adjustments in various regions, with expectations of a short-term price trend that is likely to be strong and volatile [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Low-level operation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is oscillating. The downstream situation remains weak, and the price is consolidating at a low level. Attention should be paid to weekly fundamental changes [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to strictly control cement and glass production capacity and prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [1] Production and Inventory Data - In mid-September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons (3.4%) from the previous ten-day period [1] Cost and Profit Data - This week, the average tax-excluded hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,228 yuan/ton, and the average tax-included billet cost was 2,986 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex-factory price of 3,030 yuan/ton on September 24, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 44 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Market Performance - Yesterday, finished products oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rise of coking coal and glass in the afternoon [1] Factors to Watch - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions are the factors to watch in the later stage [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting regarding the glass industry, with plans to increase prices by 100 yuan, leading to a surge in glass prices during trading [4] - The "Building Materials Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" was issued, emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity and requiring capacity replacement plans for any new or modified projects [4][5] - The plan encourages the use of clean energy and the elimination of outdated production capacity, focusing on improving environmental performance and energy efficiency in the glass industry [5][6] Group 2 - The glass industry has seen marginal improvements in September, with inventory reduction driven by downstream stockpiling, although overall demand remains weak [8] - The current production capacity has slightly increased to 160,000 tons per day, which is historically high, but the market is still characterized by high supply and weak demand [8] - There is a potential for short-term price fluctuations due to increased sentiment and production control measures, but long-term prospects may revert to weak demand if capacity reductions do not materialize [10] Group 3 - The glass industry is currently in a low valuation environment, presenting opportunities for low long positions, especially if production capacity adjustments are implemented [9][10] - The expansion of soda ash production capacity poses a supply pressure that could negatively impact glass demand if capacity controls are enforced [10] - A strategy of going long on glass while shorting soda ash may be considered due to the anticipated supply adjustments in the glass sector [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing profitability in pig farming while the pet food sector continues to grow [1][5] - The investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the sector [1] Pig Farming - Supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price in July-August 2025 at 14.63 CNY/kg, down from 14.96 CNY/kg in Q2 2025 [5] - The average profitability for self-breeding and purchased piglets in the industry has shifted to losses, with figures of 53.0 CNY/head for self-breeding and -106.7 CNY/head for purchased piglets as of September 19 [5] - The outflow of pigs from listed companies has shown a growth rate of 26.2% in Q2 2025 and 20.0% in July-August 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy guidance for capacity adjustment and weight reduction will likely elevate the price center of pigs in the future [5] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and Tangrenshen [5] Animal Health - Demand for animal health products is on the rise, with significant year-on-year growth in various vaccines, such as a 30% increase for swine fever vaccines in July-August 2025 [5] - Companies like Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological are highlighted for their strong internal growth potential due to new product launches [5] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to seasonal demand and tighter supply, with an average price of 6.92 CNY/kg as of September 19, 2025 [5] - The report notes a 17.66% year-on-year decrease in the number of breeding chickens updated in the first eight months of 2025, indicating potential long-term benefits for the white feather chicken industry [5] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [5] Pet Food Sector - Domestic sales of pet food are driven by consumption upgrades and domestic substitution, with a reported growth rate of 11% across major e-commerce platforms from January to August 2025 [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new products and the strengthening of brand power among leading companies [5] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5]. Core Insights - In August 2025, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 33.63 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 24.98 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -5.87%, -3.77%, and -1.52% [1][16]. - By September 19, 2025, the national average price for live pigs dropped to 12.82 CNY/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][16]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a recovery in supply and concentrated selling by smallholders, leading to a notable price drop [1][18]. - Demand was suppressed by high temperatures in August, resulting in weak sales of pork products, with limited uplift from the back-to-school season [1][18]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a slight decrease in the number of breeding sows to 40.42 million heads in July, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - August saw a significant decline in pig prices, with the average price for live pigs falling below 14 CNY/kg [1][16]. - The supply pressure increased as smallholders concentrated their sales, leading to a clear price drop [1][18]. - Demand remained weak due to high temperatures affecting consumption [1][18]. Policy and Capacity Control - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized strict capacity control measures, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows by 1 million heads by January 2026 [2][22]. - The government aims to stabilize pig prices while reducing excess capacity, with short-term downward pressure on prices expected [2][22]. Market Performance and Company Insights - In August, major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope reported average sales prices of 13.51 CNY/kg, 13.90 CNY/kg, and 13.54 CNY/kg respectively, all showing month-on-month declines [9][30]. - The total sales volume for listed pig farming companies increased by 6.48% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 28.44% [33][38]. - Companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, are expected to maintain profitability and benefit from better earnings elasticity once price rebounds occur [27][40].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a work plan for the construction materials industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity [1] Group 1: Capacity Control Measures - New production capacity for cement clinker and flat glass is strictly prohibited, and any new or modified projects must develop capacity replacement plans [1] - The transfer of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity from non-key air pollution prevention areas to key areas is strictly forbidden [1] - Cement companies are required to formulate capacity replacement plans by the end of 2025 for any capacity exceeding project filings, ensuring alignment between actual and filed capacities [1] Group 2: Environmental and Quality Standards - The plan aims to eliminate outdated production capacities for cement and flat glass through legal and regulatory means, focusing on quality, environmental protection, energy consumption, and safety standards [1] - Enterprises with low environmental performance are encouraged to gradually exit the market [1] Group 3: Industry Transformation Initiatives - The transition of risk warning for photovoltaic glass production capacity from project management to planning guidance is to be accelerated [1] - Leading companies are encouraged to collaborate with social capital to explore the establishment of green low-carbon transformation funds, promoting the exit of inefficient production capacities through market-oriented operations [1]

人民财讯9月24日电，工信部等六部门印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，其中提出， 严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁 从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025 年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能 耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。 加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿 色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快低效产能退出。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部、水利部、农业 农村部印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防 治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置 换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰 水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管 理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快 低效产能退出。 ...