Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff measures have triggered risk aversion in the market, with the US stock market falling, the US dollar index rising, and gold prices rebounding while copper prices weakening [2]. - The domestic economic fundamentals continue the pattern of "low inflation, weak recovery", and the A - share market may maintain a pattern of shrinking - volume shock adjustment in the short term [3]. - Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the prices of precious metals may fluctuate more significantly in the short term, and the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and other metals may face downward pressure in the short term [4][6][8]. - The prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may enter a shock pattern in the short term, and the price of nickel may be weakly volatile [15][17][19]. - The oil price is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the steel price and iron ore price may be in a shock pattern [20][21][23]. - The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil may be in a shock pattern in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump signed an executive order to postpone the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9 to August 1 and notified 14 countries of significant tariff increases. The market risk - appetite declined significantly, the US stock market fell nearly 1%, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.38%, and the US dollar index showed strength [2]. - Domestic: The economic fundamentals continue the "low - inflation, weak - recovery" pattern. The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment, and the bond market is affected by supply - side issuance increments and real - estate policy expectations [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices recovered their decline due to Trump's tariff increase on Japan and South Korea. COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. Tariff uncertainty may increase short - term price volatility [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper fell from a high level due to tariff disturbances. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market was inactive, and the LME inventory rebounded. The US tariff increase on Japan and South Korea and other factors may lead to a short - term correction of copper prices [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices adjusted from a high level due to tariff concerns and an increase in warehouse receipts. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and short - term prices may be under pressure [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices were in a strong - biased shock. The spot prices at home and abroad rebounded, and the futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased. However, supply surplus and rigid consumption may limit the upward space in the medium term [10]. Zinc - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar and accelerated inventory accumulation. The supply was stable and at a high level, and downstream orders were insufficient in the off - season [11]. Lead - Lead prices had limited corrections supported by the expectation of improved consumption. Although there was an expectation of inventory accumulation, the overall inventory level was not high [12]. Tin - Tin prices corrected from a high level. The supply increased marginally as refineries resumed production, and the downstream was in the off - season with insufficient purchases at high prices [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply side was weak, and the demand side was mixed. Policy support enhanced market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals may limit the upward trend [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices may correct in the short term. The price increase boosted supply, the market inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot market was relatively cold [17][18]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. The tariff exemption period was approaching, and the macro - level was uncertain. The cost pressure of nickel - iron plants was not relieved, and stainless steel was sluggish [19]. Crude Oil - Oil prices were weakly volatile. The geopolitical risk was gradually subsiding, and OPEC +'s production - increase plan was accelerating, but the peak consumption season supported the current fundamentals [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel prices were in a shock pattern. The supply - demand data was stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slowly accumulating. The market was affected by Trump's tariff measures [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were in a shock - adjustment pattern. The arrival at ports increased, and the overseas shipment decreased. The demand from blast furnaces in Tangshan was weakening [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal may be in a shock pattern. The US soybean crop rating was good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The trade concern re - emerged [24][25]. Palm Oil - Palm oil prices were relatively resistant to decline. The trade concern re - emerged, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the early days of July, providing support on the demand side [26][27]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the trading data of various metal futures contracts on July 7, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [28]. Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and other metals, such as inventory, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price differentials [30][33][35].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff adjustments by the Trump administration reflect a continuation of a hardline trade policy while also indicating a tactical shift towards negotiating under pressure [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has issued new tariffs targeting 14 countries, with Japan facing a 24% tariff and South Korea a 25% tariff, breaking the expectation of tariff exemptions for traditional allies [1] - The delay of the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1 provides a 20-day buffer for trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Japan and South Korea were chosen as initial targets due to their significant export volumes to the U.S., which can create immediate market impacts [1] - The strategy aims to send a message to other countries that no one is exempt from U.S. tariffs, enhancing America's psychological advantage in negotiations [1] Group 3: Characteristics of the Tariff Strategy - The tariff strategy includes three main characteristics: breaking the ally boundary by weaponizing trade, setting flexible negotiation periods to force concessions, and applying differentiated tax rates based on each country's economic structure [3] - This approach is described as a "carrot and stick" method, with the potential to reshape global trade dynamics as the August 1 deadline approaches [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving U.S.-China tariff policies and their implications for global economic dynamics, emphasizing the need for strategic responses from companies and industries to mitigate risks and seize opportunities in the current geopolitical landscape [7][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The public lecture will cover topics such as the multi-dimensional impacts of tariff negotiations, strategies for managing tariff risks through market and financial tools, and the implications of currency fluctuations and digital currency in countering tariff effects [3][10]. - The event is scheduled for July 12, 2025, at the Global Financial Center in Beijing, featuring a Q&A session to engage participants [3][9]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Professor Zhu Ning, a prominent figure in finance and economics, will provide insights into the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, drawing from his extensive academic and professional background [4][5]. - Professor Li Nan will analyze the underlying logic of tariff negotiations, focusing on how U.S. inflation, debt, and electoral politics drive policy changes, and how China can enhance resilience through countermeasures and internal circulation [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The lecture will explore investment strategy adjustments in response to market volatility, identifying long-term value anchors in the A-share market and how companies can optimize their global positioning amid changing policies [10][11]. - Key sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy will be examined for their potential to navigate technology blockades and explore feasible trade routes [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price fluctuated within a week, which was in line with expectations. The macro - level driving force was limited, and the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts was slightly dampened. The US economic "hard data" remained resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation ended at $0, severely hitting the long - term profitability of smelters. The domestic production remained high, and the profit from sulfuric acid and by - products barely offset the losses. The domestic off - season deepened, the spot premium declined from its high, but due to the internal - external price difference, the increase in domestic exports weakened the inventory accumulation expectation. The LME squeeze problem was alleviated, with inventory in Asian warehouses increasing and the premium declining. - During the tariff game, the macro - expectation may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the tariff expectation game around July 9th, especially the investigation of copper 232. The copper price showed a pull - back on the weekly chart, and the strategy of selling near - month CALL and buying far - month PUT should be continued [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% to 49%, while France's dropped 2% to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, staying below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The US economic "hard data" was resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game with the July 9th deadline set by the US led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, and the "anti - involution" action was gradually put on the agenda [4][13][85]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%, with a market surplus of 301,000 tons. In 2025, from January to April, the cumulative production of copper mines was 752.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and in April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 252.2 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, the import of copper concentrate was about 240 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the monthly average import from January to May 2025 [27]. TC - On July 4th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 44.25 dollars per dry ton, an increase of 0.56 dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group will hold a meeting on July 11th. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory on July 4th was 666,200 physical tons, an increase of 42,700 physical tons from the previous period, mainly from Qinzhou Port. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate in 2025 was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, the SMM China electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. It is expected that in July, the national electrolytic copper production will further increase by 155,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%, and by 1.222 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.88% [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, the import of electrolytic copper was 292,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Refined - Scrap Price Difference - The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased, and the average price difference between refined and scrap copper rods widened. The supply of recycled copper raw materials tightened, and the demand was suppressed by policies and costs. Recycled copper rod enterprises faced losses and were expected to shift to anode plate production, and the supply of anode plates in the second half of the year would be relatively loose [51]. Consumption End - **Power and Grid Investment**: From January to December 2024, the cumulative power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative power investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and the grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data provided. - **Air Conditioning**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioning production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioning production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to May 2025, the air - conditioning production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The industry entered the off - season [56]. - **Automobile**: In May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In the new - energy vehicle sector, in May 2025, the production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% [61]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 4th, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 400,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,700 tons. The LME copper inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 95,300 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons to 84,600 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 11,600 tons to 221,000 tons. As of July 3rd, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 72,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous week. Due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, the import loss of domestic copper widened, and some smelters began to plan export business [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 24th, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 29,433 lots, a monthly increase of 6,852 lots. The non - commercial long position was 70,781 lots, a monthly increase of 837 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,348 lots, a monthly decrease of 6,015 lots. The COMEX copper price rose due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, and the long position increased slightly [70]. Premium - As of July 4th, the LME copper spot premium was $95.35 per ton, and the LME squeeze problem was alleviated. The domestic copper spot premium showed a trend of rising first and then falling. It is expected that under the pressure of high copper prices and increasing inventory, the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the decline space is limited [76]. Basis - As of July 4th, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 790 yuan per ton [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged due to the reshaping of the global order and the trend of fiscal and monetary easing, despite short - term price fluctuations caused by tariff negotiations and inflation changes [1][3]. - Silver will experience range - bound trading, lacking new driving forces [1][4]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. In the long run, copper is expected to rise due to the tight global copper mine supply [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. In the long term, with increasing supply and weakening demand, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be seized [1][8]. - Aluminum may face pressure as the off - season approaches, and short - selling opportunities on rallies are suggested [1][11]. - Nickel is likely to rebound and then decline. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, considering the inventory pressure in the downstream [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [1]. - Carbonate lithium is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling at high prices is advised as the fundamental situation remains one of oversupply [1][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Review**: Gold prices fluctuated due to Canada's compromise in tariff negotiations and Trump's criticism of the Fed [2]. - **Basic Logic**: German inflation decreased, and there were compromises in trade negotiations among countries. However, future variables are still large. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains intact [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760. Consider long - term investment opportunities [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: Lacks new driving forces, showing range - bound trading. - **Basic Logic**: The logic has not changed significantly, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and during the consumption off - season, the strong demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors offsets the weakness in traditional demand [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious of the risk of price drops at high levels. In the long term, copper is expected to rise. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [78,500, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,700, 9,900] dollars/ton [1][6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure to rebound and will trade in a narrow range. In the long term, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,700, 2,850] dollars/ton [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina stabilized at a low level [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The off - season in the terminal field is deepening, and inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are showing signs of accumulation. The supply of alumina is relatively loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply pressure of nickel is obvious, and the stainless steel industry is facing over - supply due to the off - season and high inventory [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions by over 10,000 lots and opened high and closed low [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The market fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [61,700 - 63,600] yuan/ton [15].

正信期货铜月报202506 投资咨询号:Z0016959 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 内容要点 宏观层面：6月铜价继续横盘整理，价格缺少方向，博弈也并不激烈，波动率继续回落。需求季节性转 淡尚未完全体现，但关税问题的再发酵，对于悬而未决的铜市场来说通过贸易套利和库存转移再度支撑 起了铜价，尤其是月底LME铜现货升贴水走势异常，出现了自2021年逼仓式的高升水，宏观层面并未有 新驱动产生，美国"硬数据"尚可，但美联储按兵不动，唯一变化在于特朗普提前物色下一任美联储主 席，引发市场对降息的乐观预期。关注7月的美国就业数据变化和关税谈判进展是宏观预期驱动可能出 现变化的地方。 产业基本面：年中长单谈判以0美元落地，冶炼厂长单盈利能力大幅受挫，当前国内产量维持高位， 硫酸与副产品利润勉强弥补亏损，但利润结构极不健康。需求一端来看，国内淡季逐渐加深，现货升水 高位回落，但受内外价差影响，国内出口量增多导致累库预期不强，基本面能给到 ...

48小时内，特朗普2次对日本强硬表态。 就日美汽车贸易而言，日方数据显示，去年日本对美国的出口总额达21万亿日元（约合1400 亿美元） 中，约6万亿日元（约占30%）来自汽车及零部件产品。美方数据显示，美国2024年汽车销量约为1600万 辆，而日本车企贡献了其中约130万辆，另有40万辆在墨西哥生产。 在距离7月8日美方所谓"对等关税"大限仅剩一周之际，日美关税谈判再生变数。 据新华社报道，6月29日，美国总统特朗普在接受媒体公开采访时直言美日贸易"不公平"。仅仅一天之 后，特朗普又在社交媒体上批评日本，威胁将对日本征收新关税，理由是日本拒绝接受美国出口的大 米。 在特朗普抱怨日美贸易不公平的同时，日美之间已进行了七轮部长级关税谈判。然而，这一系列谈判并 未使得日美在达成协议方面取得实质性进展。 此前，美方已放出谈判或延期的消息。当地时间6月27日，特朗普称截止日期有灵活性，美财长贝森特则 暗示谈判可能延至9月。此前，白宫计划与10个主要贸易伙伴达成协议。 从汽车到大米 根据公开信息，特朗普近日对日美贸易的不满主要集中在汽车与大米两大领域。6月29日，特朗普表 示，"日本将不得不支付25%的汽车关税""他 ...

A股上半年收官了，算是完美收官，因为在过去9个月A股，这是第一次月线收盘站上了3400，这意味着 月线级别的突破完成了今年下半年A股，至少我们可以看到3600，那短期7月份还能继续涨吗？下半年 我们怎么展望？ 和讯投顾徐梦婧表示，首先A股这个月的完成度实在是太高了，它比如说站上3400了。最后一个启动的 信号确定就是MACD的季线金叉那完成度这么高，会不会提前透支7月份的空间？咱来说一下短期，短 期这两天不建议各位追高，因为现在创业板15分钟和30分钟级别都有一个顶背离，我们建议等回踩确认 一下回调一下各位在等倒车接人的机会的时候再上车，但我们纵观7月份，现在大家为什么预期打得这 么满，大家在等什么呢？第一个就是在等美联储7月份会不会降息，那7月份美联储会不会降息取决于什 么呢？取决于当下马上7月9号我们第一波关税豁免期就到了，我们当下在关税层面上会不会有一轮新的 博弈，如果要是有新的博弈的话，可能美美联储7月份降息的议程又要暂缓，所以接下来7月9号什么态 度？这是我们第一个观察的时间点，希望不要影响降息的进程。如果联储真的7月份降息，接下来下半 年我们的货币政策，包括我们整个的放水就可以完全打开了，下半年的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic evolution of the US tariff policy towards China in 2025, highlighting a shift from a dual-track system of "benchmark tariffs + differentiated rates" to a full upgrade to 125% "reciprocal tariffs" and selective exemptions for semiconductor-related products [1] - The article emphasizes that the fluctuations in tariff policy reflect the US's "maximum pressure" strategy and the deep-seated contradictions within its domestic political and economic landscape, indicating a critical turning point in Sino-US economic relations [1] - The adjustments in policy and market dynamics are profoundly impacting the global economic landscape, suggesting a need for strategic responses from China [1] Group 2 - The upcoming public lecture will explore economic trends and the construction of financial defense systems under the context of Sino-US competition, led by Professor Li Nan [2] - The agenda includes a discussion on the underlying logic of tariff negotiations, focusing on how US inflation, debt, and electoral politics drive policy fluctuations, and how China can enhance resilience through countermeasures and internal circulation [4] - The lecture will also analyze paths for industrial breakthroughs in key sectors such as semiconductors and new energy, as well as the feasibility of transshipment trade in the face of technological blockades [4] Group 3 - The investment strategy adjustments will focus on identifying long-term value anchors amid A-share market volatility and how companies can optimize their global layout by leveraging policy windows [4] - Professor Li Nan's expertise includes financial economics, econometrics, and macro asset pricing, with a focus on economic policy and investment decisions under uncertainty [6] - The collaboration with Nobel laureate Lars Peter Hansen and John C. Heaton on long-run risk measurement highlights the academic credibility and research depth of Professor Li Nan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is optimistic about the increase in rubber production in 2025, but the rebound after the low - level of rubber prices is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level support, and aggressive investors can hold long positions. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on br and short on ru [6]. - The macro - environment is complex, with intensified Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Trade negotiations between China and the US may be volatile. Real - estate data is poor, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Macro: Middle - East geopolitical conflicts intensify. China cuts reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, while the Fed keeps rates unchanged with two expected cuts this year. Sino - US trade negotiations may be volatile. Real - estate data is worse than expected, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. - Supply: The market is optimistic about 2025 rubber production increase. The large - cycle production capacity inflection point has arrived, but production inertia remains. The warming of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean weakens negative factors [6]. - Inventory: Qingdao dry - rubber inventory has stopped accumulating at a low level and slightly decreased, possibly due to downstream restocking. Exchange ru and nr warehouse receipts are at low levels. Cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory has rebounded to a high since 2017, and Shandong semi - steel tire finished - product inventory is much higher than last year [6]. - Demand: The domestic passenger - car price war has intensified, raising concerns about inventory pressure and weak demand. Real - estate and infrastructure construction are saturated. Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025. Construction machinery sales are low, and cement production has a deeper year - on - year negative growth as of May. Passenger - car sales are strong but may have over - consumed [6]. - Strategy: Pay attention to low - level support, aggressive investors hold long positions. Focus on the arbitrage of going long on br and short on ru [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber prices rebounded and then declined, with some varieties having large declines. The upstream oil price rebounded, but the price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, was weak. The absolute price of old whole - latex spot is lower than last year and near the median of recent years [8][12]. - The ru basis has strengthened marginally. The month - spread has also strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions. The Ru9 - 1 month - spread is around - 800 in contango, the Nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread is around 50 and continues to weaken, and the br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread has reversed to around 120 and is weakening marginally [15][20]. - The spot whole - latex to 20 - grade rubber spread has fallen to a low level again, and the 20 - grade rubber has a high virtual - to - real ratio. Synthetic rubber Br has rebounded relative to natural rubber [25]. - Thai raw material prices have declined marginally, and the spread between latex and cup lump has increased. Currently, rubber is being tapped globally with normal weather conditions [29]. - Processing profits have declined again recently [36]. 3.3 Inventory End - Qingdao dry - rubber inventory decreased rapidly from August 2023 to mid - October 2024 to a low since 2017, and now the low - level accumulation has stopped with a slight decrease. Butadiene port inventory has rebounded [40][45]. - The ru delivery product inventory is at a low level; the nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a 5 - year high to the median level after the third quarter and are now rebounding from an extremely low level [50][56]. - Cis - polybutadiene rubber factory and trader inventories have rebounded from low levels. Tire factory and downstream trade inventories are high [59][61]. 3.4 Supply End - According to ANRPC adjusted data, the cumulative natural rubber production of member countries from January to December 2024 decreased by less than 0.5% year - on - year. China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [64]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years due to eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In 2025, the import data of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly, with a 17% year - on - year increase in March and a 21% increase in the first three months [68]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - side production capacity has arrived, and the bottom support is becoming stronger. However, production is affected by weather, pests, and profit margins, and demand affected by macro and policies determines the upper limit. There are signs of aging rubber tree age structure in production areas, especially in Indonesia [80]. 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire operating rate has rebounded to the median of the multi - year range, exceeding last year's level, while the semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded slightly lower than last year and is at a high in the multi - year range [87]. - As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of tire outer - tube production is about 3% and is marginally declining, with a much slower growth rate than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth of tire exports as of May is about 9%, performing relatively well but lower than last year [92]. - Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025 [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) are strong due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion. However, the price war has intensified, and exports face challenges such as tariffs. The support from passenger cars may be limited due to the weak real - estate and infrastructure [101]. - Overseas automobile sales are generally average, with the US and Japan seeing rebounds, but the EU performing poorly. Trade wars have disrupted consumption patterns [105]. - Cement production had negative growth last year and has marginally improved this year, but the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened as of May [111]. - Transportation investment is a key measure for stable growth but has limited effect due to infrastructure saturation. Excavator sales rebounded and then softened [115]. - Real - estate data from January to May 2025 has deteriorated, bringing pessimism. Given the long real - estate cycle and unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time [121]. - Road freight volume is stable but lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and substitution by railway and waterway transportation [124].