证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 关税博弈下的大类资产策略 报告日期： 2025年06月04日 核心结论： 5/12中美会谈联合声明大超预期，虽然后续谈判或仍有波折，且行业关税值得警惕，但关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，市场情绪逐步修复。海外宏观聚焦滞和胀角力， 交易逻辑沿着滞胀-衰退-宽松轮动。美股走强，美债和美元走势背离，衰退风险仍需警惕。美股冲击前高动能不足，预计高位震荡。美债脉冲4.5后的做多机会显现，可逐步配置。黄 金短期震荡，关注3150附近支撑。国内进入政策观察期、经济降温期，业绩与估值再平衡，预计A股区间震荡，重回哑铃策略，关注小盘成长和低波红利。 关税进展：升级后缓和，资产逻辑摇摆 关税动向：中美和谈比市场最乐观的预期还要乐观，关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，后续关注行业关税。 关税影响：若24的对等关税能在90天内如期取消，30关税对中国GDP的拖累在1个百分点左右，对应政策对冲的必要性和紧迫性降低，进入政策观望期。 资产逻辑：大类资产避险资产占优-权益资产修复-震荡运行，已修复4/3以来跌幅。 海外策略：滞与胀角力 ，等待降息信号 海外宏观：目前滞的压力缓和，降息推迟至9月，年内仅有两次 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No such content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Overseas Situation**: The US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. The market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise slightly, driven by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and football concepts. China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite. The market is currently focused on US trade policies and trade negotiation progress, which may increase market volatility. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Precious metals fluctuated and declined on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar. COMEX gold futures for August delivery fell 0.6% to $3377 per ounce. US labor data showed signs of cooling. The market is awaiting the employment report on Friday, with an expected increase of 130,000 non-farm payrolls in May and a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Geopolitical risks and policy - related games may increase the volatility of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and it is advisable to look for long - term investment opportunities after periodic corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. The US raising steel tariffs has intensified market pessimism. The market is entering the off - season, and iron ore production has declined for three consecutive weeks, reflecting weak demand. However, steel production is still increasing due to good profits. The steel market will remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to consider inter - period positive spreads [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices declined on Tuesday. Although iron ore production has declined, steel mills are still profitable, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the decline path of iron ore production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and this trend is expected to continue in the second - quarter peak season. FMG has postponed the production of the Iron Bridge project. Iron ore port inventories are decreasing. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Silicon manganese and silicon iron spot prices declined on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair as the production of major steel products has increased slightly. The price of silicon manganese in the north and south markets is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is cautious. The production of silicon manganese has increased slightly, mainly in Inner Mongolia and Guilin. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton for 72 - grade and 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. The raw material price of blue charcoal is weak, and downstream procurement is sluggish. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Canadian wildfires have disrupted oil supply, offsetting the impact of OPEC+ production increases. The fire in Alberta, Canada, has shut down 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production, more than three - quarters of OPEC+'s recent production increase. US job vacancies also support oil prices. Geopolitical risks are rising due to the US - Iran nuclear agreement issue. Oil prices will be more volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to monitor the progress of the Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices have rebounded after a decline. Demand has recovered to a limited extent. The basis in major consumption areas has declined, and the futures structure has weakened. After the profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. As the peak demand season approaches, it is advisable to monitor inventory depletion. Asphalt prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, following oil prices [7]. - **PX**: The external price of PX remains high, and the PXN spread is around 270. Short - term maintenance is relatively high, and with the support of oil prices, PX will maintain a strong and volatile trend. However, after the reduction of polyester downstream production, PTA may reduce long - term contracts, which may affect PX demand in the future. There is a slight risk of a decline in PX prices later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remains at a high level of +210, but the 9 - 1 spread has dropped by 50 points. After the restart of some devices, more devices will end maintenance in June, and supply will increase. Downstream production cuts will continue, and PTA is likely to accumulate inventory in June. It is advisable to enter the market on the right - hand side when the spread declines [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal - based supply of ethylene glycol will gradually recover, and inventory will decrease in the short term, but it needs to reach 500,000 tons. Downstream production cuts have a negative impact, and low imports limit supply growth. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a rebound [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. Terminal orders have recovered less than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and orders from the US may slow down. Although short - fiber inventory has decreased, it is necessary to monitor the sustainability of spinning mill operations. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Methanol**: The Jiangsu Maritime Bureau has restricted ships over 25 years old from berthing in the Yangtze River, which has strengthened the basis in June. On June 3, 2025, the daily loss of Chinese methanol plants due to maintenance or production cuts was 17,050 tons. Some plants have resumed production, and some have started new maintenance. Import arrivals have increased, and port and inland inventories are rising slightly. Although low inventory supports prices in the short term, with increasing supply, inventory is expected to rise faster, and prices may decline in the long term. It is advisable to monitor import arrivals and wait for the situation to become clear [10]. - **PP**: The polypropylene market is consolidating within a range. The output of PP is increasing, and new device production is being realized. Supply pressure will increase from June to July, while demand is in the off - season transition. With weak oil prices, the price center is likely to move down. It is advisable to monitor device maintenance and oil price fluctuations [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusting. The price has declined in different regions. The industrial inventory is okay, but demand is in the off - season. Supply pressure has been relieved due to previous device maintenance, but devices are expected to restart, and new devices will be put into production in June. With weak oil prices, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices rose above $9600 overnight. The market expects the US to impose a 50% tariff on copper after raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. The copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate TC has continued to decline, but the decline has slowed. Copper concentrate port inventories are high, and TC may stabilize soon. Copper production is at a high level, and there is no incentive to cut production. Demand is approaching the off - season, and there is a risk of a marginal decline in demand. If production remains high and demand weakens, inventory will increase. It will fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The US raising aluminum tariffs will increase non - US supply. Aluminum production is at a high level, and Russian aluminum imports have increased significantly. Aluminum demand has exceeded expectations from March to May, but this growth rate is unsustainable. Demand is expected to decline marginally, and the export rush will slow down the decline. Aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, and it may fall to around 500,000 tons at the end of May. There is no major negative factor in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the domestic tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped by nearly 2%. There are rumors of the resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, but these rumors have not been confirmed and may change. On the demand side, the integrated circuit industry is growing rapidly, PVC production is high, but terminal electronics are weak, and the market is entering the off - season. After the price decline, downstream enterprises have replenished inventory, and inventory has decreased by 1261 tons. Tin prices have stabilized in the short term, but high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and a marginal decline in demand will put pressure on prices [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise in US crude oil prices by nearly 2% has boosted CBOT soybean and corn futures. The possible meeting between US and Chinese leaders this week has restored market risk appetite. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is stable with high temperatures, and there is no continuous weather premium. CBOT soybeans are expected to trade within a range in the short term [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is expected to recover, and the weak basis will be realized. There is no strong driving force for the rise of US soybeans, so soybean meal lacks a stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the low inventory of Canadian rapeseed and potential drought risks in the new season have tightened domestic rapeseed imports, and the supply outlook is uncertain. Rapeseed meal is in the peak demand season, and port inventory may decrease. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. If the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean harvest, soybean meal premiums may decline. Rapeseed meal has relatively strong support, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may narrow [15]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound in the crude oil market has driven up the prices of US soybean oil and oilseeds. The domestic market has risen with the expected increase in costs. BMD palm oil futures rose, supported by improved export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in May. After India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oil, palm oil futures rose in the Chinese market, supported by improved demand prospects [16]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, the pressure on pig farms to sell pigs is low at the beginning of the month, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in weak supply and demand. As large - scale pig farms increase sales and the market reduces pig weights, pig prices may continue to decline. Pig prices are stable in the short term, and there is a high basis and large discount for near - term contracts. With the position limit for the 07 contract, there may be a price increase for near - term contracts [17][18]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, the concentrated listing of new wheat may replace some corn feed consumption. High inventory and warehouse receipts may put pressure on corn prices in the short term. However, after the wheat harvest, corn demand will recover, imports will decrease, and port inventory will deplete faster. As long as the expectation of a future price increase remains, corn prices will be supported in the short term and may trade within a range [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7120（+0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差160，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 关税博弈拉长，淡季压力渐显 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 特朗普关税政策遭遇美国司法挑战，后续关税以其他形式出台的不确定性增加，美 国国内外对关税的博弈时间将被拉长，或导致金价波动加剧。国内而言，下游淡季 需求压力逐步显现，工业品短期或有所承压。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] 白银：金融与商品属性影响下，白银价格波动或更大。①价格：5 月 30 日当周 SHFE 白银跌 0.27%至 8218 元/千克，COMEX 银跌 1.59%至 33.08 美元/盎司， 伦敦银现跌 1.51%至 32 ...

Group 1: External Pressures - The announcement by Trump on May 24 regarding tariffs on EU goods and mobile manufacturers has created significant downward pressure on global markets, leading to declines in major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, both dropping over 0.6% [1][2] - The indirect impact of these tariffs on the A-share market has resulted in heightened market volatility and investor anxiety, particularly evident in the sharp decline observed at the end of May [2][3] - The drop in European markets, with indices like Germany and France falling over 1.5%, has increased liquidity pressures on the A-share market, as foreign capital may withdraw in response to global risk aversion [3] Group 2: Domestic Support Factors - Northbound capital saw a record inflow of 224.49 billion yuan on May 30, indicating strong foreign confidence in Chinese assets, with significant investments in sectors like financials and consumer goods [5] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 is expected to announce major financial policies, further enhancing market expectations for growth-supporting measures [6] - The stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the actions of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange are providing a solid foundation for the market, helping to attract foreign investment and bolster market confidence [6] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The Hong Kong market exhibited a "V-shaped" recovery on June 2, which may signal a potential emotional recovery for the A-share market, as historical trends suggest that A-shares often follow Hong Kong's lead [7] - The A-share market is anticipated to open lower but may experience a rebound if it can hold above the critical support level of 3100 points, which is a significant psychological barrier [8] - The focus of market recovery is likely to shift towards large-cap stocks, especially as the upcoming half-year report period increases attention on companies with stable earnings and cash flow [10] Group 4: Sectoral Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor and AI sectors are highlighted as having substantial growth potential due to ongoing technological advancements and increasing market demand [13] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to e-commerce, are expected to benefit from the upcoming 618 shopping festival, presenting investment opportunities [13] - Defensive investments in high-dividend sectors such as coal and electricity are recommended to provide stable returns amid market volatility [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the mid - term tariff negotiation results uncertain, OPEC+ increasing oil production, and the demand side in a weak state. However, the strong basis is a bullish factor. It is expected that both PE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. It's the off - season for agricultural films, many small and medium - sized factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 95, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.4%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (-0), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and it's the off - season for agricultural film demand with new capacity pressure. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: Strong basis [6] - **Weakening Factors**: New capacity launch, weak crude oil [6] - **Main Logic**: New capacity launch, tariff policy [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently, with insufficient demand for pipes and good rigid demand for packaging films. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-50), with overall bearish fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 182, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (-0), neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, bullish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Leveraging Factors**: Strong basis [9] - **Weakening Factors**: Weak crude oil [9] - **Main Logic**: New capacity launch, tariff policy [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed accordingly [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Inner Mongolia Pinyangyang Group due to tariffs affecting their exports to the U.S. market, and the strategic decisions made by the company's general manager, Lv Pin, to navigate these difficulties [2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Decisions - Lv Pin proposed three decisive strategies in response to the tariff situation: "cut," "shrink," and "adjust" [2]. - The first strategy involved significantly reducing shipments to the U.S. market while maintaining a small portion to preserve market share and credibility [4]. - The second strategy focused on extending production cycles, managing inventory levels, and prioritizing shipments based on product profitability [6]. - The third strategy aimed to shift market focus towards Europe and Russia, seeking alternative markets in light of the challenges in the U.S. [6]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - Lv Pin developed a "2-1" plan, which involves calculating profits from the past two years minus the current year's losses, and reassessing the strategy if the result equals zero [8]. - The company has an annual revenue of 120 million, with foreign trade accounting for 20 million, representing one-sixth of total revenue [10]. Group 3: Market Relationships - Despite the tariff challenges, some U.S. clients have increased their orders and even proposed price hikes, indicating strong partnerships based on trust [9]. - The relationship with a key U.S. client, "Lao Yuedeng," exemplifies the importance of trust in international business dealings [9][13]. Group 4: Industry Context - The article highlights the upcoming "Good Life Expo," which aims to stimulate consumer activity and support quality brands, showcasing a collaborative effort among major e-commerce platforms [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Inner Mongolia Pinyangyang Group due to tariffs affecting their business with the U.S. market, and the strategic decisions made by the general manager, Lv Pin, to navigate these difficulties while maintaining market presence and customer trust [2][4][9]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The company, led by Lv Pin, has an annual revenue of 120 million, and is primarily affected by tariffs on exports to the U.S. market [3]. - Lv Pin proposed three strategies: "cut," "shrink," and "adjust" to mitigate the impact of tariffs [3][4]. - The first strategy involves significantly reducing shipments to the U.S. while maintaining a small volume to preserve market share and credibility [4][6]. - The second strategy focuses on extending production cycles and managing inventory levels to control costs and ensure continued supply to long-term clients [6]. - The third strategy is to shift market focus towards Europe and Russia, seeking alternative markets in response to the challenges in the U.S. [6][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the tariff challenges, some U.S. clients have increased their orders and even proposed price hikes, indicating a strong partnership based on trust [9]. - The company has expanded its foreign trade scale to 20 million, accounting for one-sixth of total revenue, and continues to grow [11]. - The article highlights the importance of trust in international business relationships, as exemplified by the partnership with the U.S. client "Lao Yuedeng" [9][11]. Group 3: Industry Context - The article mentions the upcoming "Good Life Expo," aimed at enhancing consumer vitality and supporting quality brand growth, which reflects the broader industry trend of fostering market connections [12]. - The expo will feature a unique online-offline integration model to connect quality products with domestic distribution channels, promoting high-quality development for participating companies [12].

Core Viewpoint - North Glass Co., Ltd. (北玻股份) is a leading player in the glass processing equipment industry in China, recognized for its innovative solutions and significant collaborations, particularly with Apple Inc. The company has successfully navigated market challenges, including tariff disputes, by diversifying its client base and focusing on quality and innovation [3][6][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - North Glass, established in 1995, is the only A-share listed company in the glass processing equipment sector in China [3]. - The company has gained attention for its unique glass structures, such as the "glass cylinder" at the Apple Store in Lujiazui, Shanghai, and has secured over 100 orders for glass curtain walls from Apple [6][9]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Despite challenges from tariff disputes, North Glass has maintained a strong presence in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Japan, and is gaining traction in the Middle East [9]. - The company emphasizes innovation as its core principle, stating that technical confidence and the ability to tackle complex challenges have been key to its success [9]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - The first "Good Life Expo" (好博会) will be held from June 27 to 29 in Beijing, aimed at stimulating consumer activity and supporting quality brands, with participation from major e-commerce platforms [11].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline on May 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.31%[2] - Trading volume reached 1.03 trillion CNY, a slight increase of approximately 100 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Most sectors declined, with textiles, environmental protection, coal, and transportation showing slight gains, while chemicals, agriculture, automotive, and military industries faced the largest declines[1] - The semiconductor sector reacted coldly to a meeting aimed at enhancing Sino-European semiconductor cooperation, indicating a decrease in market sensitivity to previously significant news[1] Economic Indicators - State-owned enterprises reported a total profit of 13,491.4 billion CNY from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 68 billion CNY in government bonds in Hong Kong this year, with the first two phases totaling 25 billion CNY already completed[5] Investment Insights - Given the recent decline in domestic deposit rates, high-dividend sectors are becoming more attractive for investment[1] - The market is currently in a "vacuum period" following tariff impacts and earnings disclosures, suggesting that a significant rebound may not be imminent[1] Fund Dynamics - As of April 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China has surpassed 33 trillion CNY for the first time, reaching 33.12 trillion CNY[9] - The private equity fund managed by Taikang Stable Growth has completed its registration, with an expected initial investment of 12 billion CNY, marking progress in long-term stock investment trials[10][11]