日本6月货币存量M3同比 0.4%，前值 0.2%。 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡走高，沪指逼近 3500 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3497.48 | 0.70% | 24.35 | | | 深证成指 | 10588.39 | 1.47% | 152.89 | | | 沪深 300 | 3998.45 | 0.84% | 33.28 | | | 创业板 | 2181.08 | 2.39% | 50.89 | | | 科创 50 | 991.95 | 1.40% | 13.66 | | | 北证 50 | 1420.99 | 1.36% | 19.07 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.89% | 公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic market shows resilience with June excavator sales increasing by 13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The export market remains strong, with excavator exports up by 19% year-on-year in June, supported by improving global investment sentiment [2] - Emerging markets are experiencing high demand, and domestic non-excavator segments are showing signs of recovery, enhancing profit certainty for manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, with domestic sales at 8,136 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase. Cumulative domestic excavator sales for the first half of 2025 were 65,637 units, up 22.9% year-on-year. Loader sales in June were 12,014 units, with domestic sales at 6,015 units, increasing by 14% year-on-year. The report suggests that the engineering machinery sector can achieve considerable growth throughout the year due to factors such as improved funding availability and ongoing replacement demand [1] Overseas Market - In June 2025, excavator exports totaled 10,668 units, a 19% year-on-year increase, while loader exports reached 5,999 units, up 9%. For the first half of 2025, cumulative excavator exports were 54,883 units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. Despite some downward pressure in regions like Europe and Russia, demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America remains strong. The anticipated reduction in tariff uncertainties is expected to boost market recovery [2] Profitability and Market Conditions - The report indicates that over 80% of profits for engineering machinery manufacturers come from overseas markets, with significant contributions from regions like Indonesia, South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. The first half of 2025 saw a recovery in overseas demand, supporting manufacturer profits. Additionally, the domestic non-excavator segment is expected to recover, with profit margins projected to improve from 15% to 20% in 2025, reducing previous profit drag [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with 2-3 years of growth potential remaining. The overseas emerging market expansion is progressing well, maintaining high demand levels. Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, a leading comprehensive manufacturer, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [4]

每经编辑｜蒙锦涛 当房地产高增长落幕，家装行业正经历着从增量红利向存量博弈的转身。在这场没有硝烟的战争中，小品牌在生存压力下节节败退，而头部企业却在危机 中嗅到新机。 当管道渗漏、水质污染成为旧房翻新的最大痛点，市场正在无情淘汰投机者，却为坚守者打开新大门。根据沙利文（Frost & Sullivan）2025年5月发布的 权威调研，日丰获"中国家装管道第一品牌"称号，销额、销量（吨）、服务家庭数、营销网点数四个关键维度均位居2024年行业榜首。 市场地位声明 ==日丰 中国家装 道質 (按2024年销额、销量、服务家庭数与营销网点数计) 来源:弗若斯特沙利文(北京)咨询有限公司上海分公司,基于对 中国内地(不包含港澳台地区)家装管道市场的研究;按2024年销额、 销量(吨)、服务家庭数与截至2024年底营销网点数计;家装管道指 家庭装修时铺设的户内管道;于2025年5月完成调研。 SINCE 1961 =JII 2025年05月 FS-2025-MPC-373045 *本文件仅作为所载结论之市场研究报告中的核心要素展示,非宣传推广画面 "隐形冠军"的荣誉背后，恰是这场存量博弈的写照。在行业集体焦虑时，他们以 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the building materials industry is expected to return to historical high demand levels due to the emergence of stock demand, with a significant shift towards consumption characteristics of building materials [4][7][22] - The residential renovation demand currently accounts for nearly 50% and is projected to reach around 70% by 2030, indicating a qualitative change in consumption demand for building materials [7][22][23] - The report highlights the potential of African markets for capacity expansion, identifying undervalued local leaders such as Keda Manufacturing, Huaxin Cement, and Western Cement [4][9][10] Group 2: Stock Chain Insights - The stock category is seen as a cyclical demand segment that can emerge positively, with a significant supply exit in consumer building materials due to the deep adjustment in the real estate sector [7][47] - The report predicts that by 2024, production levels for various building materials will be at approximately 90% for plastic pipes, 82% for gypsum board, and 62% for waterproofing materials compared to their peak levels [7][47][50] - The report suggests that the supply exit in consumer building materials is thorough, driven by the expansion of leading enterprises' advantages and changes in demand structure [7][47][50] Group 3: African Chain Insights - Africa is identified as a fertile ground for the export of building materials, driven by population growth and urbanization, with local leaders like Keda Manufacturing benefiting from market share advantages [9][10] - Keda Manufacturing holds a 20% market share in the ceramic tile market in Central Africa, with a net profit margin recovering to over 20% in Q1 2025 [9][10] Group 4: Domestic Substitution Chain Insights - The report highlights the opportunities for domestic substitution in building materials, particularly in specialty fiberglass and industrial coatings, driven by the transformation goals of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [10][10] - Key players in specialty fiberglass, such as China National Building Material, are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power [10][10]

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 7 月 7 日 2011-2015 年熊市周期与当前周期的比较—宏观中观篇 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 报告导读： 海外宏观环境优于上一轮周期。美国制造业收缩但个人消费增长，两者对冲使得美国通胀回落的同 时失业率并未明显增加。再叠加美联储良好的预期管理，使得本轮经济周期具备"软着陆"的条件。而 类似这种预防式降息导致的流动性释放，利好大宗商品。欧洲"自由市场逻辑"传导更为清晰，当通胀 回落至可控区间之后，降息会刺激制造业扩张和终端消费增加，当下欧元区央行政策利率高企，这是比 2010-2015 年更加有利条件。 国内宏观环境弱于上一轮周期。M1 快速降低、M2 与社融存量同比剪刀差转正 以及 M1 与 M2 剪刀 差扩大，反映出社会融资需求回落和市场风险偏好降低。但海外降息引发的人民币升值利于国内货币政 策发力。地产行业中，居民杠杆率和城镇化率偏高制约了本轮地产周期的腾挪空间。商品房待售面积偏 高，同时潜在购买力不足，会导致地产主动去库的程度更深。制造业中，内需消费结构的变化和外需潜 在需求的增加，使得本轮制造业周期韧 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen's commercial market is experiencing steady growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both "stock renewal" and "incremental breakthroughs" with over 400,000 square meters of new commercial space added [1] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a surge in commercial openings, with over 10 new projects set to launch, including major developments across various districts [1][17] Group 1: Commercial New Forces - The keyword for Shenzhen's commercial landscape in the first half of 2025 is "renewal," with 4 out of 7 new or upgraded projects focusing on stock renovation [1] - Stock renovation is characterized as a "precise operation" based on location and market demand, successfully revitalizing old commercial spaces [2] - Notable projects include iN City Square, which underwent a significant transformation to attract younger consumers, achieving a 97% leasing rate and 95% opening rate [3] - PA MALL, previously PAFCmall, has been rebranded and renovated to enhance its appeal as a high-end business and lifestyle destination, achieving a 98.9% occupancy rate [5] - Other transformations include the conversion of traditional department stores into community-centric commercial centers, such as the JD MALL and New World Times Square [6] Group 2: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal in Shenzhen is not just about physical space but also about enhancing the value of entire districts, with two major projects exemplifying this trend [7] - The Shekou Prince Bay project is highlighted as a model for urban renewal, integrating production and city functions while enhancing cultural value [8] - K11 ECOAST showcases a blend of art, nature, and local culture, creating an immersive experience that attracts consumers [10] - The Yitian Holiday Plaza revitalizes an old urban area, achieving impressive visitor numbers and a high occupancy rate shortly after opening [11] Group 3: Third Quarter Focus - The announcement of the Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II marks a significant evolution in the Houhai business district, enhancing connectivity and functionality [13] - The construction of Shenzhen Bay Cultural Plaza is set to be a key driver for the area's functional upgrade, linking various commercial and cultural venues [15] - The new branding of Shenzhen Bay MixC emphasizes a lifestyle approach, integrating art, luxury, and exploration into its offerings [16] Group 4: Observations for the Second Half - Shenzhen's commercial market is poised for a "quantitative and qualitative leap" in 2025, with 26 new projects planned, totaling 1.8295 million square meters [17] - The western part of Shenzhen, particularly the Bao'an district, is expected to see the most significant growth with 9 new projects [18] - Major upcoming projects include the world's largest indoor ski resort and a new cultural complex, both expected to attract millions of visitors [19][21] - Smaller, unique commercial projects are also emerging, enhancing the diversity of Shenzhen's commercial landscape [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and failures faced by ancient town tourism projects in China, highlighting the need for innovative approaches to avoid the pitfalls of oversaturation and ineffective investment in the sector [1][12]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Hunan Zhangjiajie Duyong Ancient Town, which cost 2.4 billion yuan to build, has suffered losses exceeding 1 billion yuan over four years, raising concerns about the sustainability of such investments [1]. - Many ancient town projects across the country have faced delays, inefficiencies, or have been abandoned, indicating a trend of "zombie towns" and wasted resources [12][14]. Group 2: Successful Models - Zhouzhuang, known as "China's first water town," successfully transformed its economy through tourism, with ticket sales starting in 1989 and the establishment of a unified ticketing system in 1995 [3][4]. - Wuzhen, another successful case, underwent significant renovations to preserve its historical essence, leading to a dramatic increase in tourist numbers and revenue after its development began in 1999 [6][7][8]. Group 3: Failed Projects - Puyuan Ancient Town, developed under a similar model to Wuzhen, faced significant delays and financial losses, leading to the exit of its major investor, China Youth Travel Service, after only six months of trial operations [9][10][11]. - The financial struggles of Puyuan are attributed to the downturn in the real estate market and the challenges of the "cultural tourism + real estate" model, which became unsustainable [10][11]. Group 4: Future Directions - The article suggests that future developments in ancient town tourism should focus on integrating local culture and providing authentic experiences to meet the evolving demands of consumers [12][14]. - Innovative approaches, such as creating unique cultural events and interactive experiences, are essential for attracting visitors and revitalizing struggling projects [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of content and user engagement across four major platforms: Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Kuaishou, and Bilibili in the first half of 2025, highlighting the unique growth stories and trends on each platform [1][3]. Douyin Insights - Douyin's standout figure in early 2025 is "Wei Dongyi," who gained over 20 million followers in just five days after launching his account, leveraging his existing fame as a mathematics professor [3][4]. - The trend in Douyin has shifted from ordinary individuals going viral to established figures and creators leveraging their existing influence to gain followers [7][15]. - Notable accounts that gained over 10 million followers include "Xin Zhong Zhi Cheng" and "Li Weigang," indicating a stable growth pattern among established creators [4][6]. - The platform is seeing a rise in practical and useful content, with creators focusing on real-life skills and knowledge sharing [9][10]. Xiaohongshu Insights - Xiaohongshu's growth is significantly influenced by celebrity accounts, which now make up 21% of the top 100 gaining accounts, a threefold increase from the previous year [16][18]. - Young creators, particularly those born after 2010, are emerging as significant influencers, with accounts like "Xiao Hai Jie" gaining substantial followings [19][21]. - The platform is expanding its content diversity, with practical cooking and lifestyle tips gaining traction, moving away from purely aesthetic content [25][27]. Kuaishou Insights - Kuaishou's top gaining accounts are dominated by brand accounts, with "Libai Official Flagship Store" leading with over 10 million followers, indicating a shift towards commercial content [30][32]. - The platform's "old iron" community remains strong, but new creators are struggling to break through, highlighting a potential stagnation in fresh talent emergence [40]. - Kuaishou is focusing on local market strategies, with predictions that the local service market will exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, suggesting a robust growth opportunity in lower-tier cities [36][40]. Bilibili Insights - Bilibili's most popular accounts in early 2025 are educational, with "Yi Shu" gaining over 2.28 million followers, reflecting a strong demand for academic content among its predominantly young user base [41][43]. - The platform is seeing a significant presence of gaming content, with 19 gaming accounts in the top 100, indicating a vibrant gaming community [44][46]. - Bilibili's user demographic is increasingly young and oriented towards niche interests, with a focus on anime and gaming culture, differentiating it from other platforms [48][50].

Core Insights - The Chinese smartphone market is experiencing a mild recovery in Q2 2025, driven primarily by Huawei and Apple [1][3] - Huawei is expected to achieve the highest growth among major brands and reclaim the top position in the Chinese market, while Apple continues to lead the high-end market with the iPhone 16 series [1][4] Market Dynamics - The current smartphone market in China is characterized by a mix of inventory competition and technological iteration, with several factors such as slow consumer confidence and prolonged product innovation cycles putting pressure on the market [3] - Leading manufacturers are activating replacement demand through brand strategies, technological upgrades, and price adjustments [3] Huawei's Performance - Huawei's strong rebound is notable, particularly since its return to the 5G smartphone market, launching new Mate and Pura series products that leverage self-developed chips and the HarmonyOS ecosystem for competitive differentiation [3] - The company experienced a sales peak in May, aided by government smartphone subsidy policies and its own promotional activities, which stimulated a wave of user upgrades [3] - Huawei's core user loyalty remains high, with users replacing old devices with new models, indicating a recovery of market share lost due to previous supply chain constraints [3] Apple's Strategy - Apple is steadily advancing in the high-end market, with the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max performing exceptionally well, particularly following a timely price adjustment in May [4] - This price adjustment coincided with the 618 shopping festival, allowing Apple to secure the top sales position during this period, with three iPhone models ranking among the bestsellers [4] Overall Market Outlook - Despite the strong performances of Huawei and Apple, overall consumer confidence remains slow to recover, with actual sales during the 618 festival showing no year-on-year growth [4] - Analysts suggest that the sales performance in Q2 was partially driven by government subsidy policies, which may taper off in the second half of the year, introducing uncertainty into market growth [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting from price wars to a focus on user value and ecosystem capabilities as the market evolves [4]