Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a small inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil had a small inventory draw - down, and Fujairah residue oil had an inventory build - up. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy - oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur, the high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 338.39 to 336.42, a decrease of 4.64; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 393.07 to 385.25, a decrease of 4.33; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 11.61 to - 10.40, a change of - 0.31; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 634.60 to 636.65, an increase of 2.45; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 241.53 to - 251.40, a decrease of 6.78; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 21.98 to 23.36, an increase of 0.17; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 54.68 to 48.83, a decrease of 0.31 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During January 13 - 19, 2026, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 346.25 to 360.61, an increase of 3.77; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 353.19 to 365.42, an increase of 2.15; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 422.84 to 429.94, an increase of 3.49; for Singapore GO M1, it changed from 81.26 to 83.40, an increase of 1.89; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 8.90 to - 6.58, a change of 0.21; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 178.48 to - 187.22, a decrease of 10.50 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 344.30 to 359.26, an increase of 0.92; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 424.25 to 431.00, an increase of 1.63; the 380 basis changed from - 1.80 to - 1.45, an increase of 0.20; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 13.4 to 12.6, a decrease of 1.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 15.8 to 15.6, an increase of 0.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - Between January 13 and 19, 2026, for FU 01, the price changed from 2451 to 2478, a change of - 7; for FU 05, it changed from 2469 to 2526, an increase of 6; for FU 09, it changed from 2467 to 2500, an increase of 2; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from - 18 to - 48, a decrease of 13; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 2 to 26, an increase of 4; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from 16 to 22, an increase of 9 [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for LU 01, the price changed from 3112 to 3136, an increase of 48; for LU 05, it changed from 3063 to 3052, an increase of 11; for LU 09, it changed from 3081 to 3073, an increase of 17; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 49 to 84, an increase of 37; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 18 to - 21, a decrease of 6; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 31 to - 63, a decrease of 31 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the Greenland issue, the US and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a resurgence of risk aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year-on-year, and the economic data in December generally met expectations. Market sentiment was slightly optimistic, the RMB soared to a new high, and the US dollar declined slightly. Non-ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and all fell. Today, Shanghai Aluminum fell, London Aluminum rose, and domestic spot aluminum fell. [4] - Technically, US crude oil tumbled today, while London Aluminum rose slightly and traded around $3,152. Shanghai Aluminum rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom today, closing at 24,090, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased and the positions remained stable, and market sentiment was cautious. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains unclear, the international situation is tense, and market sentiment is neutral. At the same time, the speculation on metals has cooled down slightly, and capital enthusiasm has declined. In the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level. In the future, if copper prices fall, it may drive aluminum prices weaker. At the same time, attention should be paid to the situation of spot demand. [5] Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 24,090, and the spot price was 23,870. The spot price was at a discount of -220 points to the futures price. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to -150 yuan. Supply exceeded demand, and spot trading improved. [4] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, and the alumina inventory increased slightly. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the spot demand was poor at the high level in the off-season. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot price had a premium of $9. Overseas spot demand improved. [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Shanghai-London ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.62. The trends of the domestic and overseas markets were generally the same. [4] Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures-Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai-London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January 13 | 6.9735 | -90 | 10 | 7.76 | | January 14 | 6.9714 | -120 | 22 | 7.66 | | January 15 | 6.9629 | -140 | 17 | 7.68 | | January 16 | 6.9674 | -170 | 1 | 7.68 | | January 19 | 6.9581 | -150 | 9 | 7.62 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur EW was in a high-level oscillation. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounding month-on-month. The monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil had a slight inventory build, at a historical high year-on-year, ARA's residual oil had a slight inventory draw, and Fujairah's residual oil had an inventory build. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high-sulfur was stronger than that of low-sulfur. The high-sulfur spot tightened, and the cracking spread rebounded. The short-term downside space was limited, and the low-sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 319.41 | 338.39 | 342.84 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 381.51 | 393.07 | 397.96 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 5.02 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -12.48 | -11.61 | -11.23 | -10.45 | -10.09 | 0.36 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 606.35 | 634.60 | 639.10 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 12.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -224.84 | -241.53 | -241.14 | -236.84 | -244.62 | -7.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.89 | 21.98 | 21.50 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 1.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 62.10 | 54.68 | 55.12 | 50.80 | 48.52 | -2.28 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 338.12 | 346.25 | 360.39 | 359.16 | 356.84 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 346.55 | 353.19 | 366.14 | 363.46 | 363.27 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 418.09 | 422.84 | 428.26 | 426.98 | 426.45 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.92 | 81.26 | 82.45 | 81.65 | 81.51 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -9.22 | -8.90 | -7.37 | -7.10 | -6.79 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -173.32 | -178.48 | -181.87 | -177.23 | -176.72 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 337.29 | 344.30 | 358.10 | 358.88 | 358.34 | -0.54 | | FOB VLSFO | 417.42 | 424.25 | 431.74 | 429.02 | 429.37 | 0.35 | | 380 Basis | -1.22 | -1.80 | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.65 | -0.20 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.4 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | -0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.2 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 0.4 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2436 | 2451 | 2513 | 2510 | 2485 | -25 | | FU 05 | 2465 | 2469 | 2578 | 2566 | 2520 | -46 | | FU 09 | 2452 | 2467 | 2546 | 2533 | 2498 | -35 | | FU 01 - 05 | -29 | -18 | -65 | -56 | -35 | 21 | | FU 05 - 09 | 13 | 2 | 32 | 33 | 22 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | 16 | 16 | 33 | 23 | 13 | -10 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3088 | 3112 | 3159 | 3166 | 3088 | -78 | | LU 05 | 3019 | 3063 | 3087 | 3074 | 3041 | -33 | | LU 09 | 3050 | 3081 | 3112 | 3090 | 3056 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 69 | 49 | 72 | 92 | 47 | -45 | | LU 05 - 09 | -31 | -18 | -25 | -16 | -15 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | -38 | -31 | -47 | -76 | -32 | 44 | [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side is at a major cycle inflection point. Demand is supported by interest rate cuts, and policies and replacement cycles are favorable for heavy - truck demand. However, the real estate sector is a major drag. With relatively small supply - demand contradictions and current low valuations, inflation and the capacity cycle inflection point raise the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of rubber prices will increase. It is advisable to buy at an appropriate time, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr at 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Also, reduce the position of the long - ru and short - nr arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - There are policy expectations for the real estate sector, which is yet to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend against excessive competition. Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be guarded against. The US aims to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, which implies an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. 3.2 Supply - The major cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to decline. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level in 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to reduced production or hoarding. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. Currently, the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is fair. This year, the phenology in natural rubber producing areas is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm and the processing sector unprofitable. The global output is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber. The substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is approaching its peak [6]. 3.3 Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the middle level, having increased significantly compared to 2016. The inventory - to - sales ratio is not low, but considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel truck tires is lower than last year, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level with marginal destocking. Considering the market expansion, it is also evaluated as neutral [6]. 3.4 Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround in the difficult situation will take time. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly. Overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand, and the Fed's interest rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. 3.5 Market Data Analysis - **Price Relationship**: The basis of ru is at a multi - year high; the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level; the ru 9 - January spread is 680, stronger than last year; the nr continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 80 and weakening; the br continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 65; the spread between full - latex and 20 - type rubber has rebounded from a low level to a relatively high level in the past year; synthetic rubber Br is at a relatively low position compared to natural rubber [16][20][25]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Thai raw materials are consolidating with an upward bias. In 2025, Thai raw material prices were relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw material production capacity. However, the continuous weakness of the spread between latex and cup lump suggests that supply problems are not significant [35]. - **Processing Profits**: Thai processing profits are low and still in the negative range, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw materials in Thailand [40]. - **Inventory Data**: Qingdao's inventory is at a medium level, but considering imports, it is not overly high. Exchange ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts are at a medium - low level. Synthetic rubber inventory is moderately high. Full - steel truck tire inventory days are at a medium - high level in recent years, and semi - steel tire inventory days are at a high level [46][56][66]. 3.6 Supply - Side Analysis - **Production**: According to ANRPC, the cumulative global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production increased slightly. China's natural rubber production in the first nine months of 2025 increased by over 7%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. The global rubber production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and ANRPC's capacity will enter a deficit mode (excluding Africa, Myanmar, and Laos). High prices stimulate output, but low prices lead to reduced production. The price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather [75][83]. - **Imports**: In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to EU Eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024. Currently, the implementation of EUDR has been postponed until the end of 2026 and 2027 [86]. 3.7 Demand - Side Analysis - **Tire Industry**: In 2025, the overall operating rate of full - steel truck tires was on the rise but still low, at a low level in recent years. The current operating rate of semi - steel tires is not high. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production was 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline and significantly slower than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports as of November was 3.8%, with the growth rate also marginally decreasing, performing relatively well but still lower than last year [107][111]. - **Heavy - Trucks**: Heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Despite weak real - estate data, the trade - in policy boosts heavy - truck sales. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Large infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station are beneficial for long - term heavy - truck demand [116]. - **Passenger Cars**: Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly [119]. - **Infrastructure and Real Estate**: The real - estate sector in 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time. Cement production had negative growth last year and is marginally improving this year, but as of November, the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened. Transportation investment is an important measure for stable growth. Major infrastructure projects such as large - scale hydropower and railway projects have started, opening up new space for infrastructure construction [129][133][139]. - **Freight Volume**: Road freight volume is recovering with difficulty. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. It is affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work and the substitution of railway and waterway transportation [145].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: - **Chinese Purchases**: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Farmer and Market Sentiment**: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having their own supply - demand and price characteristics. Some products are affected by supply shortages, while others are influenced by demand changes, geopolitical factors, and production schedules [2][3][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and some offers continued to rise. Downstream factories followed well, driving up the trading center [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction center of spot goods moved up, and production confidence was enhanced. For polypropylene, although the futures maintained a high level, the market was cautious due to concerns about demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures fluctuated, and spot prices in East China continued to decline slightly. Supply was abundant, and the port was accumulating inventory. In the short - term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, de - stocking was difficult [3]. - Styrene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, the port inventory was decreasing, the export market was good, and the downstream was bullish [3]. Polyester - As oil prices fell, the cost support for PX and PTA weakened. In the short - term, the upward drive for PX was weak, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's main driver was from raw materials, and the processing margin would moderately recover [5]. - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants were put into operation, while overseas plants stopped production. The industry was mixed. In the short - term, falling oil prices were a major negative, but in the second quarter, there were expectations of improvement [5]. - Short - fiber enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Demand would continue to decline, and the price would fluctuate with raw materials [5]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, downstream demand was for rigid needs, and the processing margin recovered, but long - term capacity pressure remained [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Due to the cooling of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the methanol market declined. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and the port was de - stocking. However, with demand weakening, the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down, and the market was in a multi - empty game [6]. - Urea futures declined slightly, while spot prices were stable with a slight increase. With the approaching of spring demand and positive macro factors, the market was expected to be strong [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC weakened within the day. Although production increased slightly and exports of some enterprises increased, downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, it was expected to reduce capacity, and the futures price center would rise [7]. - Caustic soda was in a weak position, and the industry was accumulating inventory. Although the profit of integrated enterprises was okay, the industry was generally in a loss, and it was necessary to track whether there would be production cuts [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. Production continued to rise, supply pressure was high, downstream procurement was weak, and the industry was accumulating inventory. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass was strong within the day and continued to de - stock. However, production lines were in a loss, capacity was compressed, and demand was insufficient. It might accumulate inventory seasonally, but in the long - term, supply reduction would relieve pressure, and it was recommended to buy on dips [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand outlook for the polyester sector has worsened. PX and PTA should be treated with an adjustment mindset, and attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil price fluctuations due to unstable geopolitical situations. The sector lacks fundamental support and will follow the general trend of commodities, fluctuating in a low - level range. - In the long - term, the polyester sector will show a differentiated trend. With supply expected to remain relatively tight, the operating centers of PX and PTA will tend to move up. Due to increasing supply pressure, ethylene glycol will perform relatively weakly. [30] Methanol - In the short - term, affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran, the price fluctuations of methanol have increased, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern. Methanol is in a deep game between strong expectations and weak reality, with limited upward space and potential for a slight adjustment. - In the long - term, the import volume of methanol is expected to decrease in February, but demand recovery is weak. Methanol will likely continue to oscillate widely until there is obvious recovery momentum in demand. [58] Plastic - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of plastic has marginally improved this week, and the price has continued to rebound due to strong macro - sentiment. However, as geopolitical concerns ease, the cost - side support weakens, and plastic may return to fundamental operation, with a possible weak and oscillatory trend. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of plastic is unlikely to decrease due to new capacity releases, and overall demand is in the off - season. Plastic is expected to continue its weak trend. [59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - Iran's short - term possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, and the risk premium has been quickly squeezed out. The US has imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals, entities, and foreign companies associated with Iran. The US has completed the first - batch sale of Venezuelan crude oil as part of a $2 billion deal, and plans to continue selling Venezuelan crude oil indefinitely. [3] - The EIA has slightly revised up its future oil - price forecast, expecting the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to reach $52.21 per barrel, and maintaining the 2027 forecast at $50.36. US crude - oil production is expected to decline from a peak of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027. The rebound in Venezuelan crude - oil production may exacerbate market oversupply. [4] - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, US commercial crude - oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.447 million barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while gasoline inventories surged by 8.977 million barrels to 251.013 million barrels. [4] Polyester Sector Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures prices: WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.03%, PX603 decreased by 0.53%, TA605 decreased by 0.75%, EG605 decreased by 0.75%, PF602 decreased by 1.21%, and PR603 decreased by 0.03%. - Spot prices: Naphtha increased by 2.87%, PX CFR: Taiwan decreased by 0.68%, PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.49%, ethylene glycol East China mainstream price decreased by 0.57%, polyester staple fiber East China mainstream price decreased by 0.84%, and polyester bottle - chip East China mainstream price increased by 0.50%. - Basis: PX basis decreased by 10.64 yuan/ton, PTA basis increased by 13 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol basis increased by 8 yuan/ton, short - fiber basis increased by 23 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip basis increased by 32 yuan/ton. - Polyester filament prices: POY150D/48F increased by 2.29%, FDY150D/96F increased by 1.47%, and DTY150D/48F increased by 1.29%. [6] Supply and Demand Analysis of Polyester Sector PX - Last week, the restart of Fujia Dahua's 1 - million - ton PX plant increased supply. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, up 2.83 percentage points, and the PX output was 760,600 tons, up 1.46%. - South Korea's GSCX Line 3's 550,000 - ton PX plant has restarted, and Asia's PX load has slightly rebounded. As of January 15, Asia's weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, up 0.66%. - There are no planned plant changes next week, and domestic PX supply is expected to remain stable. [12] PTA - During the week, Yisheng New Materials shut down for maintenance, and Xin Fengming restarted. As of January 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, down 0.19 percentage points, and the weekly output was 1.4504 million tons, down 1,800 tons. - This week, the pace of PTA social inventory reduction has slowed. As of January 15, PTA in - plant inventory days were 3.62 days (+0.02 days), polyester factory PTA inventory was 7.5 days (+0 days), and PTA social inventory was about 2.8674 million tons (-16,800 tons). - There are maintenance plans for plants in South China next week, and domestic supply is expected to decline slightly. [15][16] Ethylene Glycol - This week, Yongcheng Yongjin restarted, and some plants increased their loads, while Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and some plants decreased their loads. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 62.69% (-0.37 percentage points), with the integrated plant capacity utilization rate at 62.51% (-1.14 percentage points) and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate at 62.98% (+0.89 percentage points); the weekly output was 395,600 tons (-2,300 tons). Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical will undergo maintenance next week, and domestic supply will decrease. - This week, port inventories increased. As of January 15, the total inventory at East China ports was 728,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from Monday and up 38,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the arrival of imported goods will decrease next week, considering the decline in shipments, port inventories are expected to increase slightly. [17] Polyester End - The weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester end decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 86.7%. [18] Polyester Inventory - This week, the inventory of short - fiber and long - fiber polyester decreased slightly. [22] Terminal - As of January 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 54.94% (-2.95 percentage points), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.73 days (-0.95 days), and the坯布 inventory days were 28.27 days (+0.7 days). [27] Methanol and Polyolefin Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: MA2605 decreased by 1.50%, MA basis increased by 54.84%, L2605 increased by 0.31%, and L basis increased by 158.51%. - Methanol prices: Methanol (Taicang) increased by 0.40%, and methanol CFR increased by 0.65%. - Plastic prices: LLDPE increased by 2.58%, HDPE increased by 2.88%, and LDPE increased by 2.22%. [33] Supply and Demand Analysis of Methanol Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic methanol operating rate was 91.11%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the output was 2.0353 million tons, down 6,990 tons (0.34%) from the previous period. - This week, Xinxiang Zhongxin's plant was under maintenance, with a loss of 300,000 tons/year of production capacity, and Inner Mongolia Jiuding's plant resumed operation, with a recovery of 100,000 tons/year of production capacity. - There are still some maintenance plans next week, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly. [40] Demand Side - As of January 15, the MTO operating rate decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 85.77%. Ningbo Fude continued to be shut down, and Zhejiang Xingxing shut down on January 12 due to economic pressure. Sierbang has a maintenance plan in February, and the support for coastal olefins is weakening. Other traditional downstream sectors are in the off - season, and although there is a slight increase in plant restarts, there is no obvious positive news. Olefins may continue to weaken in the next period. [43] Inventory - As of January 14, port inventories were 1.4353 million tons, down 101,900 tons (6.63%) from the previous period, and inland inventories were 450,900 tons, up 3,270 tons (0.73%). - The overall unloading volume this period was not large, and port inventories decreased. Although coastal olefins in Zhejiang weakened due to plant shutdowns, inventories also decreased significantly due to less unloading. However, this inventory reduction was mainly driven by unloading volume, and there was no obvious positive news on the demand side. There is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the next period, and the turning point for effective inventory reduction has not yet arrived. Inland inventories are higher than in previous years due to high operating pressure and seasonal weakening of demand, and there is still pressure to reduce inventories. [46] Supply and Demand Analysis of Plastic Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic plastic operating rate was 81.6%, down 2.07 percentage points, and the output was 669,800 tons, down 17,000 tons (2.47%) from the previous period. - This week, plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical were under maintenance, with a total loss of about 480,000 tons/year of production capacity, and plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical resumed operation, with a total recovery of about 280,000 tons/year of production capacity. - Next week, there are many plants resuming operation, with a total recovery of about 1.5 million tons/year of production capacity, and the operating rate is expected to increase. [49] Demand Side - As of January 15, the downstream plastic operating rate was 40.93%, down 0.28 percentage points. The agricultural film sector continued to weaken seasonally, with the operating rate continuing to decline (-0.91%), and the packaging film sector was slightly boosted by post - holiday replenishment demand, but order follow - up was weakening. [54] Inventory - As of January 13, social inventories were 484,300 tons, down 500 tons (0.1%) from the previous period, and two - oil enterprise inventories were 302,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (7.08%). - This period, the macro - news was positive, market sentiment was strong, and prices continued to rise. However, after the downstream had completed phased inventory replenishment, the trading atmosphere was stalemate. Two - oil enterprises successfully reduced inventories, but overall inventories fluctuated little. [57]