1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, as the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts increase, terminals gradually shut down, PTA supply - demand accumulates, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the pre - holiday PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range [5]. - For MEG, due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol will still maintain an upward trend at the beginning of this week, and the arrival of foreign ships will be decentralized in the second half of the month. There is a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure will moderately improve. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down, and the supply stability in Iran should be monitored. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly consolidate in a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - PTA: On Friday, the negotiation for February middle - upper was at a discount of 60 - 85 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was a transaction for late February at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5015 - 5135 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 72. The spot is 5090 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price. PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position has changed from short to long [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly from a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The spot market fluctuated widely. Today's spot transactions were at a discount of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and next - week's spot transactions were at a discount of 105 - 108 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It rebounded slightly due to plant news during the session, but the increase was limited. The spot is 3630 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position has decreased [8][9]. 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PX supply - demand situation from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, and balance with polyester [12]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering total production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. 3.4.3 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It details the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and various year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 (Summary of Influencing Factors) - **Likely Positive Factors**: The 700,000 - ton plant of Gulei Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from early March, expected to last until around the end of April [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA plant of Nengtou resumed operation last week [11]. 3.6价格相关 (Price - Related) - It includes historical price charts of PET bottle chips (market price, production margin, operating rate, inventory), PTA (month - to - month spread, basis), MEG (month - to - month spread, basis), and spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [16][17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][39]. 3.7库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) - It shows the historical inventory data of PTA (factory inventory), MEG (port inventory), PET chips (factory inventory), and polyester products (DTY, FDY, short - fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [42][43][44][46]. 3.8聚酯上下游开工 (Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates) - **Upstream**: It includes the historical operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [53][54][56]. - **Downstream**: It shows the historical capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of chemical fiber textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [57][58]. 3.9利润情况 (Profit Situation) - It presents the historical profit data of PTA (processing fee), MEG (production margins of different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament (DTY, POY, FDY production margins) [59][60][61][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG exhibits a game between sentiment and fundamentals, with PG oscillating before the holiday. In the short - term, the internal and external market logics are differentiated, and the PG price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical situations and opportunistically short at high levels [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Can - Chemical Product Closing Price Monitoring - The report presents the closing prices, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various can - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current value of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is 6,959 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.13%, a monthly decrease of 0.77%, and an annual decrease of 2.95%. The current value of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly decrease of 0.75%, a monthly increase of 0.88%, and an annual decrease of 2.34% [3]. 3.2. LPG: Game between Sentiment and Fundamentals, PG Oscillates before the Holiday - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 548,800 tons. The civil gas commodity volume was 225,400 tons (-2.76%), the industrial gas was 191,700 tons (0.31%), and the ether - after carbon four was 179,800 tons (0.94%). The LPG arrival volume last week was 510,000 tons (2.63%). Domestic supply increased this week, but it is expected to decline next week [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. The winter heating demand is maintained, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving. However, the PDH device load will gradually decrease before the Spring Festival, and the propane chemical demand is expected to decline. The MTBE profit is in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending oil demand is slowing down, which restrains the civil gas price [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the LPG refinery inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the port inventory showed a trend of accumulating. Refineries successfully reduced inventory, while some ports withheld goods for sale [4]. - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China, South China, and Shandong are 234.80 yuan/ton, 644.80 yuan/ton, and 261.80 yuan/ton respectively. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by 6,902 lots [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 62.66%, 58.15%, and 36.54% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are -374 yuan/ton, 142 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 25 (0.41%), and the PG primary - secondary monthly spread is -303 yuan/ton (3.06%). The oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. - **Other Factors**: It is bullish. The US EIA oil and gas inventory continued to decline last week. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine regions are intensifying. The natural gas price has skyrocketed due to the cold wave, and the geopolitical situation has caused market panic [4]. 3.3. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures oscillated and declined, with a price fluctuation range of 4,110 - 4,360 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices oscillated sharply and trended downward, and international LPG prices oscillated. Domestic supply and demand both decreased, and the spread between ether - after carbon four and civil gas was inverted [6]. 3.4. LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The current values of PG01 - PG12 contracts are between 4,082 - 4,516 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, most contracts decreased, and compared with last month, most contracts increased [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values and changes of various monthly spreads are presented. For example, the PG01 - PG02 spread is -134 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 47.25% and a monthly decrease of 494.12% [11]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The current values and changes of various cross - month spreads are also presented. For example, the PG01 - PG03 spread is -49 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 800.00% and a monthly decrease of 141.18% [11]. 3.5. Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many refineries under Sinopec, PetroChina, Sinochem, and CNOOC have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and capacities [13]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China also have maintenance plans, and some of the end times are undetermined [13]. 3.6. International Spot Price - The report shows the price trends of CP propane, CP butane, MB propane, MB butane, FEI propane, and FEI butane, as well as the spreads between them [16][27][30]. 3.7. Other Related Data - The report also presents data on LPG consumption, production, import and export, port inventory, refinery inventory, and deep - processing profits, etc., and shows their trends over time [135][150][174][195].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended. The PTA processing fee above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The PX supply increases with rising开工率, and the PXN processing fee is compressed. [6] - PTA has limited downside space, and the spread is bearish. The PTA processing fee above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The terminal demand has some positive factors, and the polyester开工率 is expected to recover. The PTA supply remains stable, and there is a cumulative inventory pattern in January - February. [7] - MEG has a large supply pressure, and a reverse spread strategy for basis and spread is recommended. The supply is increasing, but the demand from polyester is weak, leading to large inventory accumulation in February and difficult inventory digestion after the holiday. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract is 7262, up 62 (0.86%). The PX5 - 9 spread is 14, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR China price is 898, up 5.33. The PX - naphtha spread is 288.08, down 16. [4] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract is 5166, up 22 (0.43%). The PTA5 - 9 spread is 8, up 12 from the previous day. The East China price is 5090, down 25. The PTA processing fee is 428.01, up 15. [4] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract is 3743, down 2 (-0.05%). The MEG5 - 9 spread is - 114, down 2 from the previous day. The spot price is 3630, down 12. [4] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract is 6578, up 14 (0.21%). The PF3 - 4 spread is - 80, unchanged from the previous day. [4] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract is 469.8, up 2.6 (0.56%). The SC2 - 3 spread is 0, up 7.5 from the previous day. [4] Fundamental Data - **MEG**: A 850,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia plans to shut down for maintenance from March to April for 1 - 2 months. The restart time of a 380,000 - ton/year plant in Saudi Arabia is to be determined. The MEG装置开工率 has risen to 76.22% (+1.85%). [5][8] - **Polyester**: The polyester maintenance volume in January and February is 9.11 million tons and 6.81 million tons respectively, with a total of about 15.92 million tons. A 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. The polyester开工率 is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. [5][7] - **PX**: The domestic PX开工率 is 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian装置开工率 is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA开工率 remains at 77.6% (+1%). [6] - **PTA**: The PTA开工率 remains at 77.6%. New Fengming's 2.5 - million - ton plant is under maintenance in February, and there is a cumulative inventory pattern in January - February. [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the steel industry, with expectations of price stability in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a phase where raw material inventory is increasing, and steel production is at an early stage. The expectation is that iron ore prices will decline due to the completion of spring raw material replenishment by steel mills [11][12]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.4%, indicating a stable bottom for the steel industry fundamentals. However, the market sentiment is weak as demand is expected to decrease with the approach of the Spring Festival [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the utilization rate of hot-rolled steel mills to 78.98%, with a slight reduction in weekly production and an increase in inventory levels [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a slight recovery in price margins, with a week-on-week increase of 15.7 CNY, although companies are still facing losses of 22.3 CNY per ton [11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 3.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.7% [11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled steel prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have adjusted downwards by 20 CNY/ton, with a national average price of 3284 CNY/ton [12]. - The total inventory of medium-thick plates in the country is reported at 2.55 million tons, with a decrease of 2.19 million tons from the previous week [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The average price index for 62% Australian iron ore in January was 106.05 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% from December [14]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron ore inventory at steel mills, with a total inventory increase of 11.38 million tons compared to the end of the previous month [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - The operating rate of blast furnaces is reported at 79.53%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53 percentage points [13]. - The daily average pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, which is an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bullish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Tin: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] - For most metals, there are risks of price adjustments during the Spring Festival period, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and choose appropriate investment strategies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions, and the price fluctuated more widely at the MA40 moving - average line. The lowest price of the main copper contract dropped to 98,000 yuan. Mid - and downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices. SMM spot copper was reported at 99,605 yuan, with a premium of 40 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. Next week, with margin adjustments, the positions of Shanghai copper may continue to fall below 550,000 lots. More attention should be paid to the inter - period reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, there is a high risk of continuous inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and investors should patiently wait to buy at low prices [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak shock today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 150 yuan, - 260 yuan, and - 150 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded slightly to a positive value. In the short term, the macro - sentiment fluctuates, and the fundamental feedback is weak. The inventory performance before the Spring Festival is far worse than in previous years, and there is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Casting aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. Driven by the macro - situation and with aluminum prices at a high level, casting aluminum alloy has difficulty rising in tandem, and its seasonal price difference with Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years. The operating production capacity of domestic alumina may decline, and the number of overhauls has increased, but there has been no large - scale long - term production reduction. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus. With the decline in ore prices, the cash - cost support for alumina is below 2,500 yuan. The low basis provides limited impetus for the rebound of the futures price. Under the policy expectation, the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2] Zinc - Shanghai zinc rebounded but was pressured and fell back at the 5 - day moving - average line. The moving - averages formed a death - cross, and the short - term downward trend continues. The nearest support below is at 24,000 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment is gradually being released, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds is strong. Before the macro - expectation improves significantly, it is difficult to see a large - scale return of long - positions. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate and decline. The expectation of oversupply in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The downstream end - users of stainless steel became more cautious in purchasing due to high - price aversion. The actual transactions were weak, and the transactions were mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support the price, which supported the strong operation of the spot market. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced its positions and oscillated to the MA60 moving - average line, waiting for the social inventory data this week. The restocking next week will also be coming to an end. The recovery of the domestic upstream tin concentrate supply has affected the processing - fee quotation. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of short - positions against the MA5 moving - average line. The tin price may adjust to the MA60 daily line or even the weekly moving - average system [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock. The exchange policy affected the market participation. The continuously high price of lithium carbonate may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot market and long - position speculative positions are in the mainstream, and the position structure is fragile. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the market has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, and smelters are also showing signs of unsalable products. Traders' confidence in domestic products has wavered. The futures price of lithium carbonate has weakened, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon dropped significantly today, mainly affected by the news from the organic silicon industry. The entire organic silicon industry will implement a 30% emission - reduction target. If this target is implemented in the first quarter, based on the average monthly DMC production of 200,000 tons, it may affect the industry supply by 180,000 tons, corresponding to a reduction of about 90,000 tons in the demand for industrial silicon. Coupled with the significant decline in the polysilicon production schedule, the inventory of industrial silicon is showing a differentiated trend. The factory inventory in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, while the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons. The overall market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures reduced positions and closed down. At the industry level, the association expects the new domestic installed capacity in 2026 to be 180 - 240GW, which is in line with market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the anti - involution orientation of the industry. Currently, the industry is still in a new round of in - depth adjustment period, and the problem of supply - demand mismatch has not been resolved. Enterprises are still under continuous operating pressure. The weekly inventory performance of the industrial chain is differentiated. The component inventory is 24.7GW, a decrease of 1.4GW compared with the previous week. The inventories of battery cells, silicon wafers, and polysilicon factories have all increased slightly. In the spot market, the price of N - type re - feed materials remained stable at 53,600 yuan/ton. After the emotional correction in the futures market, it is expected to maintain a shock [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with the import loss of domestic refined copper spot narrowing. - US economic data shows mixed signals: the January ISM services PMI was 53.8, in line with December and the highest since October 2024, but the new orders index slowed; the January ADP new jobs were only 22,000, far below the expected 45,000, indicating weakening labor - market momentum. - Inventories across LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. - After digesting the impact of precious - metal adjustments, copper prices rebounded due to news. However, the copper market still faces weak spot fundamentals, rising inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. Prices may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, so caution is advised when chasing highs. But the rigid constraints on the copper - mine end and the certainty of long - term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long - term allocation funds and industrial buyers, laying a solid foundation for the medium - to - long - term rise of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. - Recently, alumina maintenance in various regions has increased, and supply disruptions have led to a narrow - range recovery. As the downstream stocking nears the end and logistics stagnates, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating and will decline as market sentiment fades. - The domestic proportion of aluminum water has decreased. High prices and repeated environmental protection controls in the Central Plains have led downstream to generally reduce or cancel pre - holiday stocking. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation and whether downstream stocking sentiment improves after the price correction [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME inventory increased, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the premium remained negative. - In terms of fundamentals, the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have strengthened, possibly due to concerns about supply shortages, and the marginal cost support has continued to rise. - Affected by the Spring Festival in February, stainless - steel weekly inventories have increased, but there is much maintenance on the supply side. In the new - energy sector, the MHP price is firm, providing strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot procurement and sales are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline. - Overall, although short - term demand has weakened, cost support remains strong, and the market sentiment has improved. With many disturbances from Indonesian news, attention should be paid to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 3,075 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 2,620 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import profit and loss changed from a loss of 2,952.1 yuan/ton to a profit of 337.9 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the price of some recycled lead products decreased. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 174 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 1,233 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import profit decreased [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of some aluminum - related products remained unchanged or increased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 423 tons, the total SHFE inventory increased by 19,718 tons on a weekly basis, the electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 10,000 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,550 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products remained unchanged or decreased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons, the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,602 tons, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 2,784 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most zinc - related products decreased. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged, and the weekly social inventory increased by 3,800 tons. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 2,859 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 5.2%, the SMM spot price increased by 13,150 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates decreased significantly. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 58.96 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 33,775 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far - Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][17][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research on the new - energy industry chain and hedging accounting [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute concentrating on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and has written many in - depth reports [47].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on February 5, 2026, covering methanol, plastics, PP, and PVC [2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the price of江苏现货 decreased from 2300 to 2250, and the price of西北折盘面 increased from 2385 to 2398 [2] - **Market Outlook**: The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO is showing resistance. Some factories have parking or production reduction plans. It is difficult for methanol to go up or down. MTO profit caps the upside. It is currently appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2] Group 3: Plastic Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 700 to 695, the price of华东LL decreased from 7025 to 6940, and the price of华东LD decreased from 8925 to 8800 [2] - **Market Outlook**: The futures market is oscillating, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The oil - making profit and coal - making profit are deteriorating. The upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating this week. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of 05 PE is expected to be under pressure [2] Group 4: PP Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6370 to 6410, the price of华东PP increased from 6675 to 6620, and the price of主力期货 increased from 6870 to 6801 [3] - **Market Outlook**: The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The import profit is - 334, and the export profit is - 225. The export volume has slightly declined. The upstream profit is stable, and the downstream profit has improved. The supply is temporarily flat in January, and the overall inventory is neutral. The supply of 05 and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [3] Group 5: PVC Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of西北电石 increased from 2500 to 2575, the price of电石法 - 华东 increased from 4720 to 4950, and the price of电石法 - 西北 increased from 4330 to 4550 [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: The V basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the export is flat. The current comprehensive profit of PVC is low, and the short - term seasonal production starts to recover. The long - term demand in the real estate market is weak, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for PVC is poor [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Fundamental factors such as decreasing production, increasing exports, and expected inventory decline to around 2.9 million tons will support the crude palm oil futures to effectively stand above 4,200 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, mainly fluctuating around 9,200 yuan in the short term. After effective consolidation and standing above 9,100 yuan, there is a chance for the futures to follow and gradually launch an upward market [1]. - Soybean oil: The new guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit may increase the industrial use of US soybean oil, but this positive factor has been digested by the market. With the continuous listing of Brazilian soybeans, CBOT soybeans may decline. In the domestic market, Brazilian soybeans are being harvested and listed, and the market's price - holding mentality is weak. The spot soybean oil will continue to fluctuate with the market, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the external market and the inflow of long - position funds, the rapeseed oil futures price once reached 9,300 yuan. However, as the Spring Festival stocking ends, the terminal demand weakens, and the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the far - month basis quote has significantly declined [1]. Apples - In the production areas, the stocking atmosphere of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu and Liaoning is good, and the de - stocking progress of the national apple inventory has accelerated. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of apples in Guangdong wholesale markets has increased significantly, but there is pressure on the daily digestion of the arrival volume. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price has increased with positions. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking situation [4][8]. Red Dates - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the 25/26 production season of red dates still exists. Traders are cautious in stocking, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. With the approaching suspension of logistics, the arrival volume in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has decreased recently. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is relatively small. The social inventory utilization rate is high, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the red date price will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [10]. Pigs - The spot price continues to weaken, and the market's willingness to sell has also increased. The average daily slaughter volume in February will remain high. The slaughter profit is limited, and it is the traditional stocking peak before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival stocking intensity. The current fundamental positive factors are limited, and the game will increase. The spot price may have support later. The positive sentiment in the futures market yesterday was mainly due to the policy of strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the No. 1 Central Document, but the current loose pattern still exists. It is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Meal - The US soybeans maintain a range - oscillating pattern with limited phased drivers. The shipping from Brazil has accelerated, and the weather speculation in Argentina has decreased. The 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. The pre - festival stocking sentiment in the market is expected to gradually weaken, and the futures lack further drivers. Attention should be paid to the left - hand side changes [13]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grain sales have increased compared with the previous period, but the enterprises' replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement demand is average, with prices running steadily and weakly. In North China, the number of arriving vehicles continues to increase slightly but is unevenly distributed in different regions, with prices rising and falling. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly but is still at a relatively low level, with a slight willingness to replenish inventory; feed enterprises have basically completed pre - festival stocking and mainly purchase on demand. In the short term, corn stocking is approaching the end, and the trading will gradually weaken, which will put pressure on prices. However, the relatively fast grain sales, the farmers' price - holding attitude, and the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches support the prices, and the overall price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent grain sales rhythm and policy release intensity [15]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures have declined, and the market is concerned about supply - related news. Traders are closely watching the news from the annual Dubai Sugar Conference. It is expected that due to the decline in production, the global sugar supply may be more balanced in the 2026/27 season. Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, which is in line with the previous estimates of institutions, and has less impact on the market. India's sugarcane crushing progress in the 2025/26 season has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative sugar production increasing by more than 20% year - on - year as of mid - January. Thailand's cumulative sugar production has decreased by about 12% year - on - year due to the white leaf disease and the delayed start of crushing, and the sugar production may have a slight downward adjustment space. It is expected that the raw sugar will maintain a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is approaching the end, and the market news is dull. The current price is at the bottom - grinding stage. Although there is no positive driver in the market, the negative factors have been gradually realized. In the absence of new negative factors, the price decline is blocked. It is expected that the futures will more follow the overall macro - sentiment fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around the previous high of 5,300 [19][20]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures have slightly declined. The registration of warehouse receipts for delivery has put pressure on the near - month contracts, and traders are waiting for the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture. The US cotton listing inspection is approaching the end, and the inspection progress has slightly accelerated but is still slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has continued to decline slightly. The USDA export sales have significantly declined, but the shipping has entered the peak period. In the industry, the cotton price is still under pressure but also has support. The market buying power is strong, and the cotton consumption is not weak, so the support below the cotton price is still strong. On the demand side, the pre - festival inventory replenishment of textile enterprises has basically ended, the operating rate has slightly declined, and the rigid - demand procurement is cautious, with only a small amount of sporadic replenishment. The stocking rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere has cooled down. However, the high commercial inventory has not loosened the spot. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support strength around 14,500 [21]. Eggs - In February, the number of newly - laid hens is expected to continue to decrease due to the low - level replenishment in the previous period. The number of old - hen slaughters will also slightly decrease. The inventory of laying hens in production will continue to decline. However, due to the suspension of trading during the Spring Festival, a large amount of inventory may accumulate in the market, and the market will face great pressure to sell goods after the festival. On the demand side, the Spring Festival stocking has basically ended, and the demand has rapidly weakened, especially in the southern market. The oversupply and the enhanced market risk - control awareness have led to an increase in the inventory in the production and circulation links. It is expected that the main contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the range [22][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,510 yuan, up 0.59% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 is 8,086 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis is - 4, down 1.07%. The 05 - 09 spread is 56, up from 10 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,100 yuan, down 0.44%. The futures price of P2605 is 9,094 yuan, down 0.48%. The basis is 2, down 66.67%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 2, down 3.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10,044 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI605 is 9,243 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 801, down 0.99%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 15, down 18.75% [1]. Apples - The futures price of the main contract Apple 2605 is 9,594 yuan, up 1.15%. The price of Apple 2610 is 8,310 yuan, up 0.65%. The basis is - 1394, down 8.48%. The 5 - 10 spread is 1284, up 4.48%. The arrival volume in several wholesale markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 6.5405 million tons, down 4.21% [4]. Red Dates - The futures price of the main contract Red Dates 2605 is 8,905 yuan, down 0.17%. The price of Red Dates 2607 is 8,940 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of Red Dates 2609 is 9,095 yuan, down 0.22%. The 5 - 7 spread is - 35, up 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 190, up 2.56%. The warehouse receipts and effective forecasts total 3,829, down 0.18% [10]. Pigs - The futures price of the main contract Pig 2605 is 11,735 yuan, up 1.16%. The price of Pig 2603 is 11,150 yuan, down 0.09%. The 3 - 5 spread is - 585, down 32.95%. The main - contract position is 145,975 hands, up 58.25%. The warehouse receipts are 647, up 547.00%. The spot prices in different regions have different degrees of decline [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2605 is 2,723 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis is 377, up 1.07%. The warehouse receipts are 36,228, up 8.4% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,520 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2605 is 2,247 yuan, down 0.09%. The basis is 273, up 0.74%. The warehouse receipts are 0 [13]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of Corn 2603 is 2,263 yuan, down 0.18%. The basis is 62, up 6.90%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 20, down 33.33%. The import profit is 223 yuan, down 1.84%. The position is 1,825,020 hands, down 2.85%. The warehouse receipts are 53,570, down 2.39% [15]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 is 2,510 yuan, up 0.04%. The basis is 242, up 0.83%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 71, down 4.41%. The starch - corn 03 spread is 247, up 2.07%. The position is 299,151 hands, up 0.37%. The warehouse receipts are 11,161, unchanged [15]. Sugar - The futures price of Sugar 2605 is 5,210 yuan, up 0.83%. The price of Sugar 2609 is 5,214 yuan, up 0.71%. The ICE raw sugar price is 14.63 cents per pound, up 2.59%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 4, up 60.00%. The main - contract position is 451,761 hands, up 0.06%. The warehouse receipts are 14,216, unchanged. The effective forecasts are 503, up 2.86% [19]. Cotton - The futures price of Cotton 2605 is 14,680 yuan, up 0.20%. The price of Cotton 2609 is 14,805 yuan, up 0.17%. The ICE cotton price is 62.30 cents per pound, down 0.80%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 3.85%. The main - contract position is 716,331 hands, down 0.22%. The warehouse receipts are 10,438, up 0.37%. The effective forecasts are 1,369, down 0.22% [21]. Eggs - The futures price of Egg 03 is 2,945 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.27%. The price of Egg 04 is 3,183 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.47%. The egg - producing area price is 3.57 yuan per catty, down 2.49%. The basis is - 83, down 11.71%. The 3 - 4 spread is - 238, up 2.86% [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term observation of market sentiment and inventory changes is needed [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Directories Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu province fluctuated between 94,500 and 123,300 tons. The inventory at major ports in East China remained at a historically low level, and spot liquidity was still tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a 4.66% increase from the previous period. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period. The Nanjing plant resumed production, and Guangxi Changke restarted, but Lianyungang Petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan each reduced one production line. The industry supply was temporarily stable, the total supply was steady, market sales were average, and inventory started to rise [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a 3% decrease from the previous period. Manufacturers' supply was still very tight, mainly controlling the volume of shipments. After entering January, most of the goods were high - priced. After the Spring Festival, market inquiries increased, trading volume expanded, and prices rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a 1% decrease from the previous period, and the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump said that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed. India is about to intervene and buy Venezuelan oil. Trump's statement over the weekend that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington signaled a cooling of the situation with the OPEC member, causing a sharp drop in WTI crude oil [2] - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market fluctuated within the day, with the daily K - line closing positive for two consecutive days, showing the possibility of further rebound. Attention should be paid to the previous high as the upper pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "shockingly strong" [1]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply of soda ash is abundant, and the core contradiction is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, with the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern unchanged. In the short term, the price may fluctuate strongly, but as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream demand weakens, the price may adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed higher, showing a short - term shock - strong signal. The trading volume increased by 447,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 12,546 lots compared to the previous day. The closing price was 1,229 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 2.08% [1]. - **Spot Market**: It was oscillating at a low level. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, with Xuzhou Fengcheng under maintenance and production slightly decreasing. Downstream demand was tepid, with a "use - as - you - buy" approach [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 21 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. Overall supply was abundant [2]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5604 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,200 tons or 1.05%. Inventory was at a historical high with an obvious inventory - accumulation trend [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and pre - holiday stocking was insufficient [2]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. The cost decreased slightly [3]. Main Logic Summary - Soda ash capacity utilization is at a high level, and with new capacity gradually coming on stream, overall production is increasing. The core contradiction is the supply - demand mismatch. In the short term, the price may fluctuate strongly, but may adjust weakly as the Spring Festival approaches [4].