1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the China-US tariff war eased, but there are still significant uncertainties. Trump's tariff policy is influenced by the "Great and Beautiful" Act. If it passes the Senate, the tariff policy may ease; otherwise, it may intensify [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports, leading to a month-on-month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. The improvement in demand was mainly supported by external demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand, as indicated by the continuous decline in the finished - product inventory index [1][34]. - Despite the easing of the tariff war, its negative impact has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer to maintain the original re - export trade rather than direct exports due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Tariff War Risk Temporarily Eased, but Uncertainty Remains 3.1.1 Tariff War News Since May - In the China - US high - level economic and trade talks from May 10 - 11, significant progress was made, including a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs and the establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism. However, there is a risk of tariff war escalation after the 90 - day suspension period ends on July 9 [7][8]. - There were legal disputes over Trump's tariff policy in May. On May 28, a federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, but on May 29, the federal appeals court temporarily suspended the lower - court's ruling. On June 3, Trump increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% [8]. - There are internal differences in the US on tariff policy, but Trump adheres to a tough stance, making the future of the tariff war uncertain [9]. 3.1.2 Assessment of Trump's Future Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is stubborn. His purposes include creating political legacies and expanding family assets, as well as generating fiscal revenue for tax cuts. The "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate will affect the intensity of his tariff policy [10][11]. 3.2 Tariff War Suspension Promoted Panic Exports, and the Manufacturing PMI Rose Month - on - Month in May - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.5 points to 49.5 but remained in the contraction range. The panic - export effect drove the recovery of most sub - indicators except price - related and finished - product inventory indicators [12]. - In terms of production, the PMI production index rose by 0.9 points to 50.7, higher than the rebound of the demand index and the seasonal average. Enterprises accelerated production during the 90 - day buffer period to ship goods [12][13]. - In terms of demand, the new order index rose by 0.6 points, and the new export order index rose by 2.8 points, indicating that external demand supported the improvement. However, the finished - product inventory index continued to decline by 0.8 points, reflecting enterprises' concerns about future demand [13]. 3.3 Enterprises Remain Cautious about Direct Trade with the US and Prefer Re - export Trade - In May, the weekly average throughput of monitored ports increased slightly month - on - month, and the import container data of the Port of Los Angeles showed a recovery but did not reach previous highs. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the cumulative effect of tariffs and the short suspension period [18]. - Different industries are affected differently by tariff policies. Strategic emerging industries are less affected, while traditional labor - intensive foreign - trade enterprises are more cautious. Forward - looking indicators show that the actual production and operation recovery of enterprises is slower than expected [24]. - In April, more than half of the 13 export - dependent industries saw profit improvements, but there was a deviation between price - volume changes and profit recovery. Profit improvement driven by cost reduction is not sustainable, so enterprises choose to reduce inventory [29]. 3.4 Summary - The China - US tariff war eased in May, but Trump's tariff policy remains uncertain, depending on the "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports and a month - on - month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. External demand supported the improvement in demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand [1][34]. - The negative impact of the tariff war has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in export activities among Chinese foreign trade companies, as they aim to fulfill backlog orders within a 90-day window to avoid higher tariffs in the future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Export Activities - Many foreign trade companies are racing to secure shipping slots and expedite production to meet U.S. customer orders within the 90-day window [1][5]. - The manufacturing PMI in May increased to 49.5%, indicating improved export conditions due to the tariff adjustments [4]. - Shanghai port's container throughput reached 4.65 million TEUs in May, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, reflecting the heightened export activities [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Response - Banks are closely monitoring the export activities of foreign trade companies, as the ability to deliver orders within the 90-day window is crucial for trade financing [2][8]. - Banks are adjusting their credit strategies based on the latest trends in export activities, providing support to companies that can meet the delivery deadlines [11]. - There is a growing demand for customized financial services from banks to support the unique needs of different foreign trade companies [3][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies - Some foreign trade companies are facing challenges in securing shipping slots and managing production schedules, leading to varying levels of confidence in meeting the 90-day deadline [9]. - Companies are considering changing their contracts to FOB pricing to mitigate risks associated with tariff fluctuations [6][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has led to increased interest in foreign exchange risk hedging products among small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [10].

Core Insights - The polyester industry is expected to face significant production cuts after mid-June due to the end of the export rush and the arrival of the off-season for terminal consumption [1][10] - The recent reduction in US tariffs has led to a temporary surge in textile exports, but the sustainability of this growth is in question as demand appears to be driven by the release of backlogged orders rather than new demand [4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in shipping costs due to a shortage of capacity has created a chain reaction of rising costs amid surging orders for exports to the US [2][3] - The US-China tariff adjustments have temporarily boosted export demand, leading to a significant increase in shipping rates as companies scramble to fulfill orders [2][6] - The polyester industry is currently navigating a complex landscape of raw material costs, inventory pressures, and changing demand dynamics [1][10] Group 2: Production and Inventory Challenges - Polyester factories are under dual pressure from high production costs and declining sales, with downstream weaving rates showing a slight recovery but not sustainable in the long term [7][8] - The industry is facing a potential inventory accumulation issue as downstream demand weakens, leading to a need for production cuts to stabilize prices and improve profitability [10][11] - The anticipated production cuts are expected to be led by larger companies, and while the industry is preparing for reductions, significant cuts may take time to implement [11][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The polyester industry is likely to experience a reallocation of profits along the supply chain as production cuts are implemented, potentially leading to downward pressure on raw material prices [10][12] - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs and trade relations between the US and China will significantly influence the future trajectory of the industry [11][12] - Analysts suggest that while there is a current recovery in processing fees for polyester products, the overall market remains vulnerable to fluctuations in demand and raw material prices [9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes discuss the Chinese economy, specifically focusing on manufacturing and export trends amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. and the EU [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Manufacturing PMI**: In May, the manufacturing PMI in China was reported at 49.5%, showing a seasonal rebound of 0.5 points. However, it remains in the contraction zone, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1]. - **Service Sector PMI**: The service sector PMI is below seasonal levels, suggesting weakness in this area as well [1]. - **Export Trends**: High-frequency data indicates a significant improvement in China's exports to the U.S. in May, with expectations of maintaining a growth rate of around 5%, despite April's growth being at 8.1% [2]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The notes highlight the importance of ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China, as well as between the U.S. and the EU. Recent comments from Trump regarding tariffs have escalated concerns [2]. - **Economic Growth Projections**: There is an expectation that the easing of tariffs could alleviate economic pressure in the second quarter, with GDP growth projected to reach around 5% [2]. - **Policy Recommendations**: The notes suggest that the government should not delay policy interventions, as the economic situation remains fragile. More proactive measures, including potential budget increases, are anticipated in the second half of the year [2]. Additional Important Content - **Domestic Demand Issues**: The notes indicate that there are significant concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand, as evidenced by declining price data and weakened second-hand housing sales [1]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The analysis suggests that adjustments in asset prices, particularly in A-shares, interest rate bonds, and gold, may present investment opportunities [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the current state of the Chinese economy, export dynamics, and the implications of tariff negotiations.

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回升 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，前值为 49.0% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 50.7% ，前值为 49.8% ，回升 0.9 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.8% ，前值为 49.2% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 47.5% ，前值为 44.7% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 48.1% ，前值为 47.9% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.0% ，前值为 50.2% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.4% ，前值为 47.0% 。 其他行业： 1 ） 建筑业： 5 月，建筑业商务活动指数为 51.0% ，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点。 2 ）服务 业： 5 月，服务业商务活动指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 5 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.4% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。 PMI 点评："抢出口" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a recovery in demand, leading to a rebound in pithead coal prices. As of May 30, 2025, pithead prices for various coal types have increased significantly due to improved demand expectations and a slight contraction in supply [7][8]. - The report highlights the upcoming peak electricity demand season and the easing of tariff issues, which are expected to support coal demand. Additionally, the reduction in coal imports is anticipated to alleviate oversupply pressures [7][8]. - The report suggests that high-dividend, low-valuation coal stocks remain attractive for investment, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 17,587.15 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 17,200.33 billion CNY [2][5]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the pithead price for weakly caking coal in Datong is 476.0 CNY/ton, up 32.0 CNY/ton from the previous week, marking a 7.2% increase. The price for Yulin's coking coal is 490.0 CNY/ton, up 90.0 CNY/ton, a 22.5% increase [7]. - The report notes that the average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces is 451.70 million tons, a decrease of 10.36% week-on-week [8]. 3. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal are highlighted for their operational performance, with specific metrics on coal production and sales [14][15]. - The report tracks the production levels and sales volumes of major coal companies, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [15]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with integrated operations and strong dividend policies, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy that are involved in coal-electricity integration [8][13]. - It also suggests that undervalued stocks, particularly those with significant market capitalization management potential, are worth considering for investment [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth is improving, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are declining; home appliance average sales prices show mixed trends with more increases than decreases year-on-year [1][8] - Service consumption shows divergence, with movie box office improving and hotel revenue per available room declining but showing year-on-year growth [1][8] External Demand - Export indicators such as container throughput and departing ship weights have decreased, suggesting a potential decline in export growth due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports continue to rise year-on-year, while traditional transshipment trade areas see a significant drop, indicating a shift from transshipment to direct exports [4] - The U.S. International Trade Court has temporarily allowed tariffs to continue, with the final ruling still pending, necessitating close monitoring of developments [5] Production - Downstream demand remains weak, with speculative demand in the chemical chain decreasing and related product prices falling; steel procurement enthusiasm is low, leading to a decline in steel prices [6] - Employment indices remain stable, with a slight increase in employment price indices, while job search and recruitment-related search indices show a downward trend [6] Prices - Gold and oil prices have retreated, while copper remains in a fluctuating range; domestic chemical products and steel prices continue to decline [7] - Market expectations of OPEC+ accelerating oil production have pressured international oil prices, while geopolitical tensions provide some support for oil prices; gold remains in a fluctuating range but is expected to trend upward in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and global instability [7]