Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in April, while imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.2% in April[2] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $21.85 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient in June to Q3 due to tariff reductions and pre-Christmas orders, but the overall external demand is still slowing down[2] Export and Import Trends - May exports totaled $316.10 billion, a historical high for the month, but the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the four-year average of 3.48%[2] - The overall external demand is below the boom-bust line, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6% in May, indicating a contraction[2] - Imports in May were $212.88 billion, the lowest for the same month since 2021, with a month-on-month decline of 3%[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU increased by 12.02%, up 3.75 percentage points from April, while exports to the US fell significantly by 34.52%[2] - The ASEAN region saw a decline in exports by 14.84%, reflecting the impact of "export grabbing" on demand[2] Product-Specific Insights - Key products like integrated circuits and automobiles showed significant recovery, while labor-intensive products like toys and footwear remained at low levels due to tariff impacts[2] - The import of crude oil saw a decline of 22.1% year-on-year, while imports of grains and soybeans increased significantly, reflecting a shift in demand[3]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. [3][51] - In May, exports fell year-on-year due to a decline in "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year, with a decrease of 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% [3][51] - Exports to ASEAN and India showed significant declines, indicating a retreat from previous "export grabbing" trends in emerging economies [3][51] Export Analysis - The old clues of "export grabbing" through emerging countries are declining, with midstream manufacturing exports showing a marginal decrease and energy resource exports declining significantly [3][15] - In May, exports of midstream manufacturing and energy resources fell from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5%, respectively [3][15] - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with specific products like toys and clothing showing recovery in export growth [4][19] Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from "export grabbing" in emerging economies to the U.S., with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][27] - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for small commodities from Yiwu [4][27] Import Analysis - In May, import growth fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][54] - Specific imports such as copper, crude oil, and iron ore showed significant declines, reflecting a notable drop in domestic investment demand, particularly in traditional infrastructure [6][54] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% [6][54] Regional Export Trends - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly [5][38] - Exports to non-U.S. developed countries, such as the UK and the EU, saw some recovery, while exports to emerging economies also declined [5][38] - Notably, exports to Africa increased, contrasting with declines in exports to Latin America and ASEAN [5][38]

Export Data Analysis - In May, exports (in USD) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[7] - The decline in exports is attributed to the retreat of the "export grabbing" phenomenon and a high base effect from the previous year[8] - Exports to ASEAN and India fell significantly, with declines of 6.0 percentage points to 15.1% and 9.2 percentage points to 12.7%, respectively[2] - The export growth rate for midstream manufacturing products decreased from 7.4% in April to 6.3% in May, while energy resource exports dropped from 1.3% to -3.5%[15] Import Data Analysis - Imports (in USD) fell by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by a drop in bulk commodity imports, including copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%)[42] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight increase, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%[5] Future Outlook - The shift in "export grabbing" is expected to transition from emerging markets to the U.S., with June exports likely to receive some support[23] - Key indicators for June include positive processing trade import growth of 2.4% in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for Yiwu small commodities[23] - The necessity for further "export grabbing" is anticipated to decrease as the suspension period for equal tariffs on emerging countries approaches its end[23]

金十数据6月10日讯，中信证券研报称，结合集装箱运价、订单量等数据，预计在中美关税暂缓期内， 新一轮"抢出口"有望开启，对整体的出口表现形成支撑。从进出口份额视角来看，美国占我国出口份额 出现显著降幅，美墨之间的关税冲突同样影响到了我国出口商品经墨西哥的转口贸易，未来东盟和欧盟 或将继续作为我国出口韧性的主要来源。 中信证券：新一轮"抢出口"有望开启 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the China-US tariff war eased, but there are still significant uncertainties. Trump's tariff policy is influenced by the "Great and Beautiful" Act. If it passes the Senate, the tariff policy may ease; otherwise, it may intensify [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports, leading to a month-on-month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. The improvement in demand was mainly supported by external demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand, as indicated by the continuous decline in the finished - product inventory index [1][34]. - Despite the easing of the tariff war, its negative impact has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer to maintain the original re - export trade rather than direct exports due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Tariff War Risk Temporarily Eased, but Uncertainty Remains 3.1.1 Tariff War News Since May - In the China - US high - level economic and trade talks from May 10 - 11, significant progress was made, including a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs and the establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism. However, there is a risk of tariff war escalation after the 90 - day suspension period ends on July 9 [7][8]. - There were legal disputes over Trump's tariff policy in May. On May 28, a federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, but on May 29, the federal appeals court temporarily suspended the lower - court's ruling. On June 3, Trump increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% [8]. - There are internal differences in the US on tariff policy, but Trump adheres to a tough stance, making the future of the tariff war uncertain [9]. 3.1.2 Assessment of Trump's Future Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is stubborn. His purposes include creating political legacies and expanding family assets, as well as generating fiscal revenue for tax cuts. The "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate will affect the intensity of his tariff policy [10][11]. 3.2 Tariff War Suspension Promoted Panic Exports, and the Manufacturing PMI Rose Month - on - Month in May - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.5 points to 49.5 but remained in the contraction range. The panic - export effect drove the recovery of most sub - indicators except price - related and finished - product inventory indicators [12]. - In terms of production, the PMI production index rose by 0.9 points to 50.7, higher than the rebound of the demand index and the seasonal average. Enterprises accelerated production during the 90 - day buffer period to ship goods [12][13]. - In terms of demand, the new order index rose by 0.6 points, and the new export order index rose by 2.8 points, indicating that external demand supported the improvement. However, the finished - product inventory index continued to decline by 0.8 points, reflecting enterprises' concerns about future demand [13]. 3.3 Enterprises Remain Cautious about Direct Trade with the US and Prefer Re - export Trade - In May, the weekly average throughput of monitored ports increased slightly month - on - month, and the import container data of the Port of Los Angeles showed a recovery but did not reach previous highs. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the cumulative effect of tariffs and the short suspension period [18]. - Different industries are affected differently by tariff policies. Strategic emerging industries are less affected, while traditional labor - intensive foreign - trade enterprises are more cautious. Forward - looking indicators show that the actual production and operation recovery of enterprises is slower than expected [24]. - In April, more than half of the 13 export - dependent industries saw profit improvements, but there was a deviation between price - volume changes and profit recovery. Profit improvement driven by cost reduction is not sustainable, so enterprises choose to reduce inventory [29]. 3.4 Summary - The China - US tariff war eased in May, but Trump's tariff policy remains uncertain, depending on the "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports and a month - on - month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. External demand supported the improvement in demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand [1][34]. - The negative impact of the tariff war has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in export activities among Chinese foreign trade companies, as they aim to fulfill backlog orders within a 90-day window to avoid higher tariffs in the future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Export Activities - Many foreign trade companies are racing to secure shipping slots and expedite production to meet U.S. customer orders within the 90-day window [1][5]. - The manufacturing PMI in May increased to 49.5%, indicating improved export conditions due to the tariff adjustments [4]. - Shanghai port's container throughput reached 4.65 million TEUs in May, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, reflecting the heightened export activities [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Response - Banks are closely monitoring the export activities of foreign trade companies, as the ability to deliver orders within the 90-day window is crucial for trade financing [2][8]. - Banks are adjusting their credit strategies based on the latest trends in export activities, providing support to companies that can meet the delivery deadlines [11]. - There is a growing demand for customized financial services from banks to support the unique needs of different foreign trade companies [3][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies - Some foreign trade companies are facing challenges in securing shipping slots and managing production schedules, leading to varying levels of confidence in meeting the 90-day deadline [9]. - Companies are considering changing their contracts to FOB pricing to mitigate risks associated with tariff fluctuations [6][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has led to increased interest in foreign exchange risk hedging products among small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [10].

Core Insights - The polyester industry is expected to face significant production cuts after mid-June due to the end of the export rush and the arrival of the off-season for terminal consumption [1][10] - The recent reduction in US tariffs has led to a temporary surge in textile exports, but the sustainability of this growth is in question as demand appears to be driven by the release of backlogged orders rather than new demand [4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in shipping costs due to a shortage of capacity has created a chain reaction of rising costs amid surging orders for exports to the US [2][3] - The US-China tariff adjustments have temporarily boosted export demand, leading to a significant increase in shipping rates as companies scramble to fulfill orders [2][6] - The polyester industry is currently navigating a complex landscape of raw material costs, inventory pressures, and changing demand dynamics [1][10] Group 2: Production and Inventory Challenges - Polyester factories are under dual pressure from high production costs and declining sales, with downstream weaving rates showing a slight recovery but not sustainable in the long term [7][8] - The industry is facing a potential inventory accumulation issue as downstream demand weakens, leading to a need for production cuts to stabilize prices and improve profitability [10][11] - The anticipated production cuts are expected to be led by larger companies, and while the industry is preparing for reductions, significant cuts may take time to implement [11][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The polyester industry is likely to experience a reallocation of profits along the supply chain as production cuts are implemented, potentially leading to downward pressure on raw material prices [10][12] - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs and trade relations between the US and China will significantly influence the future trajectory of the industry [11][12] - Analysts suggest that while there is a current recovery in processing fees for polyester products, the overall market remains vulnerable to fluctuations in demand and raw material prices [9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes discuss the Chinese economy, specifically focusing on manufacturing and export trends amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. and the EU [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Manufacturing PMI**: In May, the manufacturing PMI in China was reported at 49.5%, showing a seasonal rebound of 0.5 points. However, it remains in the contraction zone, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1]. - **Service Sector PMI**: The service sector PMI is below seasonal levels, suggesting weakness in this area as well [1]. - **Export Trends**: High-frequency data indicates a significant improvement in China's exports to the U.S. in May, with expectations of maintaining a growth rate of around 5%, despite April's growth being at 8.1% [2]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The notes highlight the importance of ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China, as well as between the U.S. and the EU. Recent comments from Trump regarding tariffs have escalated concerns [2]. - **Economic Growth Projections**: There is an expectation that the easing of tariffs could alleviate economic pressure in the second quarter, with GDP growth projected to reach around 5% [2]. - **Policy Recommendations**: The notes suggest that the government should not delay policy interventions, as the economic situation remains fragile. More proactive measures, including potential budget increases, are anticipated in the second half of the year [2]. Additional Important Content - **Domestic Demand Issues**: The notes indicate that there are significant concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand, as evidenced by declining price data and weakened second-hand housing sales [1]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The analysis suggests that adjustments in asset prices, particularly in A-shares, interest rate bonds, and gold, may present investment opportunities [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the current state of the Chinese economy, export dynamics, and the implications of tariff negotiations.

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回升 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，前值为 49.0% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 50.7% ，前值为 49.8% ，回升 0.9 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.8% ，前值为 49.2% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 47.5% ，前值为 44.7% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 48.1% ，前值为 47.9% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.0% ，前值为 50.2% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.4% ，前值为 47.0% 。 其他行业： 1 ） 建筑业： 5 月，建筑业商务活动指数为 51.0% ，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点。 2 ）服务 业： 5 月，服务业商务活动指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 5 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.4% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。 PMI 点评："抢出口" ...