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5月外贸数据点评:出口增速回落,仍具韧性
LIANCHU SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 12:48
Export Performance - In May, export growth was 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in momentum[3] - Cumulative export growth for May was 6.0%, higher than the annual growth rate from last year, suggesting continued resilience[3] - Exports to the US fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the EU increased by 12.0%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany contributing a growth rate of 21.5%[4] - Exports to Canada rose by 20.3%, indicating a continuation of transshipment trade[4] - ASEAN exports showed resilience with a contribution of 2.5 percentage points to overall export growth, accounting for 52.6% of the total[4] Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive products like bags, textiles, and footwear saw declines in export growth rates of -10.3%, -2.0%, and -5.6% respectively, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[5] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, saw a significant increase in export growth of 33.4%[5] - Automotive exports improved significantly with a growth rate of 13.7%, up 9.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Trends - Import growth fell by 3.4%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining prices of bulk commodities like coal and crude oil[7] - Agricultural imports showed recovery with a growth rate of 0.7%, up 17.96 percentage points from the previous month, driven by soybeans and grains[7] Future Outlook - Export resilience is expected to continue in the short term, supported by adjustments in shipping capacity to the US and sustained demand from ASEAN[8] - However, potential pressures on exports are anticipated in the second half of the year due to changes in US tariff policies and the expiration of exemptions on certain goods[8]
5月外贸数据点评:6月出口会反弹吗?
Export Data Analysis - In May, exports (in USD) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[7] - The decline in exports is attributed to the retreat of the "export grabbing" phenomenon and a high base effect from the previous year[8] - Exports to ASEAN and India fell significantly, with declines of 6.0 percentage points to 15.1% and 9.2 percentage points to 12.7%, respectively[2] - The export growth rate for midstream manufacturing products decreased from 7.4% in April to 6.3% in May, while energy resource exports dropped from 1.3% to -3.5%[15] Import Data Analysis - Imports (in USD) fell by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by a drop in bulk commodity imports, including copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%)[42] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight increase, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%[5] Future Outlook - The shift in "export grabbing" is expected to transition from emerging markets to the U.S., with June exports likely to receive some support[23] - Key indicators for June include positive processing trade import growth of 2.4% in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for Yiwu small commodities[23] - The necessity for further "export grabbing" is anticipated to decrease as the suspension period for equal tariffs on emerging countries approaches its end[23]
制度保障+资金支持!强化央国企市值管理,拓宽居民财产性收入渠道
证券时报· 2025-03-28 00:44
近期发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》提出多措并举稳住股市,并将强化央企国企控股上市公司市值 管理列为拓宽城乡居民财产性收入渠道的具体举措之一。 过去一年多,相关部门出台了多份引导规范央国企市值管理的制度文件,央国企控股上市公司积极运用市 场化工具回馈投资者。 接受证券时报记者采访的专家认为,央国企通过提质增效、并购重组、投资者关 系维护等多元路径,正构建"效益增长—价值提升—市场认可"正循环,拓宽居民财产性收入渠道将与其他 改革一道形成提振消费的合力。 "真金白银"发力市值管理 市值管理是指上市公司以提高上市公司质量为基础,为提升投资者回报能力和水平而实施的战略管理行 为,较为常见的举措包括分红、回购与增持、投资者关系管理等。2024年A股市场央国企控股上市公司积 极运用市场化工具,"真金白银"回馈投资者。 据证券时报·数据宝统计,2024年央国企在市值管理领域实施多项有效措施。在股份回购与股东增持方 面,全年累计完成回购金额263.8亿元,控股股东及实际控制人增持总额达249.52亿元。 在吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心主任宋冬林看来,央国企推进市值管理制度建设的工作进展,离不开考 核"指挥棒"的影响。 202 ...