Group 1: Stock Index Futures Sector - Key Products: CSI 500 Futures (IC), CSI 1000 Futures (IM) - Bullish Outlook: Clear bullish sentiment supported by trading volume and open interest structure, but caution is advised for potential high-level pullbacks [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Futures Sector - Key Products: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Market Sentiment: Overall consolidation with a slight bearish bias [3][4] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Key Products: Gold (AU), Silver (AG) - Market Sentiment: Bearish consolidation; IC and IM show "Good Curve Long" structure with annualized rolling returns of 7.5% and 10.98%, significantly higher than SSE 50 and CSI 300 [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions or add on dips, focusing on long-dated contracts of IC and IM; cross-product arbitrage suggested [5][6] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Key Products: Copper (CU), Aluminum (AL), Zinc (ZN) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Aluminum shows the strongest fundamentals with tight supply-demand dynamics [9][10] - Trading Strategy: Long Aluminum and short Copper to capitalize on supply-demand gaps; light long positions in Zinc [9][10] Group 5: Black Metals Sector - Key Products: Iron Ore (I), Rebar (RB), Coking Coal (J) - Market Sentiment: Bearish outlook with negative returns for rebar and coking coal, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [13][14] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - Key Products: Crude Oil (SC), Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Asphalt (BU), Rubber (RU) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Crude Oil and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil benefit from geopolitical factors and shipping demand [15][18] - Trading Strategy: Long SC/LU and short RU to exploit energy versus chemical dynamics [15][18] Group 7: Agricultural Products Sector - Key Products: Soybean Meal (M), Soybean Oil (Y), Palm Oil (P), Live Hogs (LH) - Market Sentiment: Overall bullish; soybean oil and palm oil benefit from biodiesel demand and weather disturbances in South America [21][22] - Trading Strategy: Long soybean oil/palm oil and short soybean meal to capitalize on oil-meal ratios; short live hogs due to oversupply [21][22] Group 8: Soft Commodities and Specialty Products - Key Products: Sugar (SR), Cotton (CF), Urea (UR), Industrial Silicon (SI) - Market Sentiment: Mixed; Urea supported by agricultural demand while Industrial Silicon faces supply pressure [27][28] - Trading Strategy: Long Urea and short Industrial Silicon to leverage agricultural demand against industrial supply [27][28] Group 9: Summary of Trading Strategies and Risk Control Recommendations - Long positions recommended in IC, IM, Urea, Aluminum, and oilseeds; short positions in Copper, Rebar, Rubber, Live Hogs, and Industrial Silicon [30]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Release date: November 10, 2025 [5] - Research team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Basis and Calendar Spread Daily Changes - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 12 on November 7, the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 142 with a daily change of -39, and the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 182 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 12 - 01 spread was 4 with a daily change of -5, the 12 - 03 spread was -38 with a daily change of -15, and the 01 - 02 spread was -16 with a daily change of -5 [3]. Group 3: Futures Contract Data Daily Changes - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price was 3048 on November 7, a decrease of 61 from the previous day [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 384,312 on November 7, an increase of 89,279 from the previous day [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest was 351,629 on November 7, an increase of 14,837 from the previous day [3]. Group 4: Spot Price Daily Changes - **Brent Crude (Jingbo)**: The price was 3030 on November 7, a decrease of 50 from the previous day [3]. - **Hongrun**: The price was 2980 on November 7, a decrease of 60 from the previous day [3]. - **Zhenjiang Warehouse**: The price was 3190 on November 7, a decrease of 100 from the previous day [3]. - **Foshan Warehouse**: The price was 3230 on November 7, a decrease of 60 from the previous day [3]. Group 5: Profit Daily Changes - **Asphalt - Ma Rui Profit**: The profit was 143 on November 7, a decrease of 36 from the previous day [3]. - **Ma Rui - Type Refinery Comprehensive Profit**: The profit was 714 on November 7, a decrease of 14 from the previous day [3].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251109 [1] Core Viewpoint - There is uncertainty in the macro - environment, and the resonance between the fundamentals' expectations and reality is limited [1] Price Data - The copper futures price declined, the spot purchasing sentiment warmed up, and the premium increased [9] - The LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [10] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.04/ton, still at a low level [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.36 tons week - on - week to 62.97 tons [16] - The refined - scrap copper price spread decreased week - on - week [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [20] - China's imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October were 2508.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [22] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [25] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, as the copper price declined and downstream purchasing picked up [29] - The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market from October 1st to 31st increased by 17% year - on - year [30] - The production schedules of domestic component enterprises in November vary, with the overall schedule expected to decline month - on - month [31] - The planned production of household air - conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [32] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [35] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months in October, and the service PMI reached an eight - month high [37] - The direction of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December is unclear [40]

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Rubber Weekly - Weak Demand Drags Down Rubber Prices" [2] - Date: 20251109 [2] - Analyst: Li Zhaofeng [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to decline and needs to stabilize. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are favorable for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be watched out for [4]. - The long - term supply cycle is shifting, which boosts valuation, but supply is elastic. The current year's natural rubber production areas have better weather conditions than last year, and the supply is expected to be stable, with a projected 0.5% increase in global production and a 10% increase in China's imports [4]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. Qingdao's dry rubber inventory has recently increased due to concentrated shipping schedules, and there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [4]. - Demand has been over - drawn by export rush and replacement demand. The real estate market shows no signs of improvement, and new vehicle and export demand are also weakening. Without strong policy support or inflation, demand will likely drag down the market [4]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on ru and short on nr, and to pay attention to the supply volume during the peak production season [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - Natural rubber spot prices have weakened, with only a limited rebound from the previous low and still at a low level. Synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low for the year, deviating from the trends of natural rubber and crude oil [6]. - The ru basis is at a multi - year high, and the monthly spread has strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions [12]. - The ru 1 - 9 monthly spread has weakened to - 125 but is still stronger than last year. The nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around - 35 and has weakened. The br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around 75 and has limited rebound momentum [17]. - The spread between spot whole latex and 20 - grade rubber has rebounded slightly from a low level, and synthetic rubber Br has weakened significantly compared to natural rubber [22]. Raw Material Prices - Thai raw material prices have stabilized marginally, and the weak spread between glue and cup lump suggests stable supply. Currently, the global market is in the peak production season with slightly more rainfall [27]. - Domestic raw material prices show that the absolute price of old whole latex has returned to the key range before last year's rally but is still at a medium level in recent years, and production incentives are still acceptable [10]. Processing Profits - Recent processing profits have declined again [32]. Inventory - Qingdao's dry rubber inventory increased in the latest week mainly due to concentrated shipping schedules. The overall current inventory is not high, but there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [37]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a multi - year high in the third quarter of last year and are still at a multi - year low [47][53]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is neutral. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber rebounded after reaching a two - year low, and the trader inventory dropped to a low level [56]. - The inventory of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has decreased marginally [59]. Supply Side - According to ANRPC, the global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.95 million tons in 2025 [63][65]. - China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [68]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to factors such as EU eudr diversion, overseas inventory replenishment, and reduced arbitrage demand. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August 2025, imports were 664,000 tons, a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down marginally [71]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - demand surplus has arrived, and the suppression of yield by production capacity has disappeared. The production capacity of natural rubber has reached an inflection point, providing a more solid bottom support, but production is affected by various factors such as weather, pests, and profit margins [81]. Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tires has remained stable and is at a medium level in recent years, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires is neutral [89]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire outer - tube production was about 1.5%, with a marginal slight decline and a significantly slower growth rate compared to last year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire export volume was about 5.4%, which is relatively good but also lower than last year [93]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase compared to the same period last year. The large - scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the long - term demand for heavy - trucks [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales have performed well due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak, and trade protectionism may further affect the market [102]. - Overall overseas automobile sales are mediocre, and trade wars have disrupted the consumption rhythm [105]. - The real estate market data from January to September 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for the market to reverse [120]. - Road freight volume has been stable but is still lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and the substitution effect of railway and waterway transportation [124].

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of patience in trading, highlighting that successful trading requires waiting for the right trends and opportunities rather than making impulsive decisions [1] - The article suggests that traders should only enter the market when there is a clear and confirmed trend, avoiding speculative interventions [1][3] - It is noted that maintaining a position during a bullish market is crucial for maximizing profits, and traders should focus on exiting positions at the right time rather than trying to hit the highest or lowest points [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the significance of having a solid risk management strategy and the importance of learning various trading concepts, such as trend analysis and position management [6][8] - It emphasizes that a well-structured knowledge framework is essential for effective trading, as it helps traders discern useful information from the overwhelming amount of available knowledge [9] - The need for continuous learning and revisiting educational materials is highlighted, as understanding deepens over time with repeated exposure to concepts [9]

Core Insights - The high number of losses in stock index futures trading is attributed to a combination of trading mechanisms and human psychological weaknesses [3][4][6] Group 1: Human Psychological Traps - Emotional decision-making leads to hesitation in stop-loss actions, with many traders holding onto losing positions in hopes of a market reversal, resulting in greater losses [3] - Anxiety over profits causes traders to close positions prematurely, missing out on larger trends [3] Group 2: Leverage Effects - Leverage amplifies mistakes; for instance, a 10x leverage can result in a 30% loss of capital with just a 3% adverse market movement [4] - Margin pressure from leveraged trading can lead to forced liquidation during market downturns, disconnecting traders from potential rebounds [5] Group 3: Market Characteristics - The nature of the market is a zero-sum game, where gains for some traders mean losses for others, often leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [6] - A significant portion of traders struggle to differentiate between ranging and trending markets, leading to frequent stop-loss executions in sideways markets and missed opportunities in trending markets [6] Group 4: Trading Costs and Strategies - Price volatility in futures markets can lead to discrepancies between expected and actual closing prices, contributing to losses [8] - Transaction costs, including commissions and fees, can erode profits and exacerbate losses [8] - Effective trading strategies and risk management are crucial; inadequate planning can lead to significant losses [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report assesses multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing investment ratings and analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trends for each commodity, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with the basis gradually weakening and spot trading being average. New cotton cost provides some support to the market, but price increases may face hedging pressure due to average demand. As of October 30, the cumulative processed lint cotton nationwide was 233.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.6 million tons. As of November 5, the cumulative inspection volume was 215.78 million tons. The demand for pure cotton yarn is average, and the new orders for weavers are poor. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production data in mid - October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume in mid - October basically flat year - on - year and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still slightly up year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar remained weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market focus has shifted to the new season's production estimate. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated widely. In the spot market, apple harvesting in Shandong is nearing the end, and there is little off - warehouse stock in the northwest. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The market focus has shifted to sales expectations. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU was weak, and NR & BR declined. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, but the Yunnan region in China is entering the low - production period. The domestic tire start - up rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The import volume in October was 66.7 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase and a 10.1% month - on - month decrease. A strategy of trading on oversold rebounds and paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities is recommended [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of November 6, the inventory at major ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. In September, the import volume was 295.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.25 million tons. The demand for pulp is average, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [6] Timber - The futures price was weak. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine price increased, but the domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders declined. The port delivery volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

1. Overall Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][4][9]. - In the precious metals market, the price of gold and silver is affected by factors such as US economic data, Fed officials' statements, and inventory changes. In the base metals market, copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by market risk preferences, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. In the black industry, steel, iron ore, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and cost changes. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply - demand balance, weather, and policies affect the prices of soybeans, corn, and other products. In the energy and chemical industry, factors such as new device production, demand, and geopolitical risks affect the prices of LLDPE, PVC, and other products [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose and then fell, with London gold reaching $4000/ounce. The US included copper and silver in the new key minerals list, and US employment data was weak. Domestic gold ETF inflows were 1.1 tons. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Multiple factors influenced the market, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated. The market risk preference declined, and the supply of copper ore remained tight. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.10%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. Pay attention to the de - stocking of aluminum ingots [4]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.54%. Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand remained high. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Zinc**: The price of the zinc main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [5]. - **Lead**: The price of the lead main contract decreased slightly. Supply was marginally loose, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to operate within an interval [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply decreased, and demand was supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to operate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was high. It is recommended to try to buy on dips [6]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand was under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated weakly. Market risk preferences fluctuated, and supply was expected to ease. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [6]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the rebar main contract increased. Supply and demand weakened marginally, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore main contract decreased. Supply and demand were neutral and deteriorated marginally. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the coking coal main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were affected by steel production, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [9]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed. New grain is about to be listed, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased slightly. Internationally, sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 range [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded. Supply increased, and demand increased slightly. The market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and policies [10]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures and spot prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed. Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Different regions have different situations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [11]. - **PVC**: The price of the PVC main contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to short or do a reverse spread [12]. - **PTA**: PX supply increased, and PTA supply pressure was high in the medium - long term. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and short the processing fee in the far - month contracts [12]. - **Glass**: The price of the glass main contract decreased. Supply decreased due to production line shutdowns, and demand improved. It is recommended to do a reverse spread [12]. - **PP**: The price of the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [12]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [13]. - **Styrene**: The price of the styrene main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract increased. Supply and demand were balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [13].

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Entertainment and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251106: Weak Cost Support, Hold Short Positions in Stainless Steel [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: On November 5, the main nickel contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 123,448 lots (+577), and the open interest was 115,164 lots (-3,296). LME nickel fell 0.40%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased. The supply side showed that nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel pig iron plants' losses deepened, and production decreased in November, while Indonesian production increased. Nickel pig iron inventories tightened. In November, domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals were weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: On November 5, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 90,380 lots (-21,042), and the open interest was 74,412 lots (-1,663). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900). On the supply side, stainless steel production decreased in November, and 300-series production was basically flat. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices fell, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat. Overall, the fundamentals were loose, cost support was weak, and stainless steel was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts on November 5 showed various changes compared to the previous day and two weeks ago. For example, the near-month contract closed at 119,720 yuan/ton (+330), the continuous first contract at 120,030 yuan/ton (+330), etc. [2] - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and imported nickel also changed. For instance, SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 120,950 yuan/ton (-850) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts on November 5 also changed. For example, the near-month contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton (0), the continuous first contract at 12,535 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of different types of stainless steel products such as 304/2B coils and 316L/2B coils decreased. For example, 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 17,950 yuan/ton (-500) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900) [2]. Group 4: Industry News - EU Investigation: The European Commission announced an in - depth investigation into MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The deal, worth about $500 million, involves two nickel - iron mines and two Brazilian construction projects. The investigation aims to address concerns about potential impacts on the EU stainless steel industry's competitiveness and raw material prices. The deadline for the adjustment phase is March 20, 2026 [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt stated that its precursor business can achieve full self - supply of nickel raw materials. The Indonesian Pomalaa project is expected to be completed and put into production next year. The company will focus on upstream resource development and overseas material capacity layout to enhance self - supply and competitiveness [2]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price cannot effectively break through the support level, take profit and wait and see [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]