2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260129 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 9 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260129 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：持续反弹，高波动态势延续 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：高位震荡20260129 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Market will focus on inventory impact on the market. If inventory decline is less than expected, Malaysian palm oil may end its rally and face downward pressure. It maintains a near - strong, far - weak pattern. - Soybean oil: Market speculates on potential policy announcements that could boost export demand. Domestic downstream demand is weak due to rapid price increases. - Rapeseed oil: Influenced by strong external markets, domestic prices maintain an upward trend [1]. Cotton Industry - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level震荡 pattern. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be 震荡 - strong in the short term, supported by high cotton consumption in the downstream and the expected adjustment of planting area in 2026 [2]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar maintains a 震荡 pattern. Brazil's sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thailand's sugar - crushing season is slow. Domestic sugar prices are weak, but cost and market sentiment provide some support [3]. Jujube Industry - The jujube spot market has weak trading, with prices stabilizing. Some traders offer discounts, and small factories stop production, supporting prices. The futures market is in a low - valuation range, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival trading and inventory [5]. Apple Industry - Driven by pre - holiday demand, market sentiment improves, but the inventory reduction progress is slow. High prices and competition from other fruits may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [7]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn fundamental situation changes little, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. Prices are stable, and attention should be paid to enterprise stocking and policy [9]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is 震荡 - weak, with increasing supply. The futures price is also weak. The market is expected to remain in a bottom - range 震荡 pattern [11]. Meal Industry - US soybeans have strong support. The domestic spot market is loose, with high inventory. The market is expected to be 震荡 before the festival, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [16]. Egg Industry - Egg prices have risen, leading to profitability in egg - chicken farming. Supply is stable, but demand may weaken as pre - holiday stocking nears completion. Attention should be paid to the digestion of high - price eggs [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On January 28, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices had varying degrees of change. For example, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 70 yuan to 8670 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.81% [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the inter - monthly spreads of each variety [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in China showed different trends [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On January 29, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 increased, and the ICE US cotton price also rose [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang - arrival cotton and CC Index decreased slightly [2]. - **Industrial Situation**: The inventory of some regions decreased, while the industrial inventory and some import - related inventories increased [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 rose slightly, and the ICE raw sugar price also increased [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, while the industrial inventory increased [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 had small changes, and the spreads between contracts also changed [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujubes had different trends, and the basis changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased slightly [5]. Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of apple 2605 and 2610 increased, and the basis decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased [7]. - **Profit**: The disk profit decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2603 decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port had different trends, and the import profit increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of corn starch and corn had different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [9]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2605 and 2603 had small changes, and the spreads between contracts decreased [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions decreased, and the slaughter volume and white - strip price increased [11]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans in different regions and contracts had different trends [16]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different varieties and contracts, such as the soybean - rapeseed meal spread and the inter - monthly spreads, changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased, but the absolute inventory was still high [16]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 03 and 04 contracts had different trends, and the basis increased [19]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of eggs, egg - chicken seedlings, and culled chickens increased, and the egg - feed ratio also increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: Egg production is stable, and demand may weaken as pre - holiday stocking nears completion [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soda ash capacity utilization remains high, with new capacity gradually ramping up and overall production increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although high - level exports ease some pressure and anti - involution sentiment provides support, high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of pressure when the sentiment fades and the market returns to the weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, showing a volatile and upward trend in the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The resistance is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 72,467 lots, and the open interest increased by 22,832 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1176, and the closing price was 1198, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Tianjin Soda Industry resumed production, leading to a narrow - range increase in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor restocking willingness and a wait - and - see attitude [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27% month - on - month; the combined - soda process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, up 0.42% month - on - month [2] - Inventory: As of January 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,541,000 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 1.30% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 838,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 702,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - High soda ash capacity utilization and new capacity ramping up lead to increasing production. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may weaken rigid demand. High - level exports and anti - involution sentiment provide some support, but high inventory restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a risk of pressure when sentiment fades [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, globally and in Canada, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts its market price. In the domestic market, oil mills are in a shutdown state, supporting the current rapeseed meal spot price. Policy has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. After continuous previous declines, rapeseed meal has rebounded at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the supply of Malaysian palm oil continues to decline this month, and exports have increased significantly in the first 25 days. India's cancellation of soybean oil purchase orders may turn to palm oil. Domestically, oil mills are in a shutdown state, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high. Affected by the strengthening of palm oil, rapeseed oil continues to rise, with increased short - term fluctuations, and a short - term bullish approach is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 59 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 297029 lots, down 1269 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 940606 lots, down 29805 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 11889 lots, up 2345 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 217128 lots, up 23127 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 625, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 646.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10226.25 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7860.97 yuan/ton, up 49.86 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.91, down 0.01. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 790 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 263 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1280 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 25.25 million tons, down 2.15 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is not specified in the summary part. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.2 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 27.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.85%, down 1.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.67%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.39%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.97%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.7%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 27, 2026 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed almost flat. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 0.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 646.70 Canadian dollars per ton. South American soybean is expected to have a high yield, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, the US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing remains strong to meet the demand for soybean oil in the expanding bio - fuel industry. The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record, supporting the US soybean market price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to high开工, high inventory, weak demand, and limited cost support. The V2605 daily K - line should pay attention to the support near 4860 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4913 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan; the trading volume is 1121915 lots, a decrease of 38791 lots; the open interest is 1039839 lots, a decrease of 20469 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 998443 lots, a decrease of 29378 lots; the short positions are 1137859 lots, an increase of 10911 lots; the net long positions are - 139416 lots, a decrease of 40289 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 4890 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) and 4930 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC are 4716.92 yuan/ton (down 15.77 yuan) and 4731.88 yuan/ton (down 26.25 yuan) respectively. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia are 680 and 660 US dollars/ton respectively (both unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 2541 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 433 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars) respectively; the CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons, including 52.74 million tons in East China (an increase of 1.12 million tons) and 4.91 million tons in South China (an increase of 0.37 million tons) [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative new housing construction area is 58769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5313.26 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, an increase of 3824.09 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, an increase of 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 19.9%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.93%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4924 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased to - 800 yuan/ton with deeper losses, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension of tapping, and overseas raw material prices are likely to rise, strengthening cost support. Demand is weak, with slow domestic sales and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are strong. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to maintenance, while PE's standard product pressure increases. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal device maintenance [2]. LPG - The price is affected by factors such as inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates. The downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market situation needs to be further observed [3]. Urea - The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, with the main contract of urea focusing on the range of 1,760 - 1,800 [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand. PVC is expected to have a downward adjustment in the market, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weakly volatile market. Soda ash is affected by inventory and demand, while glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the pre - holiday off - season [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene's price may be under pressure at high levels due to factors such as increased import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and its price is also expected to be under pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply - side factors support the rise in oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is being depleted, but high production restricts the rebound space. The port inventory is slightly increasing, and the demand for MTO is weak [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX, PTA, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and seasonality. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol has a pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term supply - demand [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned full - latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed to varying degrees, and the basis has also fluctuated [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries' production in November has changed, and indicators such as tire production, export volume, and import volume in December have also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of bonded areas and factory warehouses has changed, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao have also changed [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries have changed, and the inventory of enterprises and society has decreased [2]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has increased, port inventory has decreased, and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed [3]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts have fluctuated, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production has increased, inventory has decreased, and demand is weak [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures have decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries have changed, and inventory has increased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash spot and futures have decreased, and the basis has changed [7]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed, and real - estate data has also changed [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different products have changed [8]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have decreased, and the spreads and cash flows have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil in different regions have changed [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have decreased, and the spreads and basis have changed [14]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory have changed, and upstream - downstream operating rates have also changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. have changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of POY, FDY, etc. have changed [16]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [16]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [16]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and inventory and operating rates have also changed [16].

Apple Market Insights - The apple futures contract closed at 9504 yuan/ton, with a change of +38 yuan/ton, representing a +0.40% increase [2][14] - In the spot market, prices for late Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, with no change in price [2][14] - Overall market conditions are stable but slightly weak, with limited transaction volumes and increased urgency among farmers to sell [3][15] Recent Market Developments - Packaging and shipping in production areas have slightly accelerated, but transaction volumes remain limited, leading to a weak market sentiment [3][15] - In Shaanxi, transactions are primarily based on limited high-quality sources, while Gansu's market is stable with steady shipping [3][15] - The market is entering a critical period for pre-Spring Festival stocking, with a focus on wholesale market performance and shipping progress from production areas [3][15] Market Analysis - The apple market is characterized by supply support but weak demand, with farmers willing to lower prices to stimulate sales [5][16] - The pre-Spring Festival stocking phase has seen a slight improvement in transactions, but overall activity remains subdued [5][16] - The market is experiencing a "hot production area, cold sales area" dynamic, with significant inventory buildup in transit warehouses [5][16] Strategy - The current market strategy is neutral, reflecting the mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [6][17] Jujube Market Insights - The jujube futures contract closed at 8820 yuan/ton, with a change of +60 yuan/ton, representing a +0.68% increase [7][18] - In the spot market, prices for Hebei's first-grade gray jujubes remained stable at 8.00 yuan/kg [7][18] Recent Market Developments - The jujube market is entering the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking peak, with increased transaction volumes compared to the initial listing of new jujubes [9][20] - Downstream channels are adopting a low inventory strategy, with limited time left for pre-holiday purchases due to impending logistics shutdowns [9][20] - The market is facing high inventory levels and soft consumer demand, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders [9][20] Market Analysis - The jujube market is experiencing a slight increase in prices but remains under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [9][20] - The focus is shifting to downstream consumption as production areas complete their harvests, with some processing plants halting operations due to inventory pressures [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a need to monitor sales pace and buyer sentiment closely [9][20] Strategy - The current market strategy for jujubes is also neutral, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market [21][22]

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨缩 口，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带中轨线 附近。成交量较昨日减 40.4 万手，持仓量较昨日增 2939 手；日内最高 1206， 最低 1188，收盘 1194，（较昨结算价）跌 3 元/吨，跌幅 0.25%。 2，现货市场：淡稳调整。企业装置稳定运行，综合供应维持高位。下游需 求表现平平，采购氛围不佳，维持低价刚需补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 56 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 供应方面，截止 1 月 22 日，国内纯碱产量 77.17 万吨，环比下跌 0.36 万 吨，跌幅 0.46%。其中，轻碱产量 35.88 万吨，环比下跌 0.27 万吨；重碱产量 41.29 万吨，环比下跌 0.09 万吨。综合产能利用率 86.42%，上周 86.82%，环比 下降 0.40%。其中氨碱产能利用率 87.69%，环比下降 2.27%；联产产能利用率 77.99%，环比下降 0.89%。15 家年产能百万吨及以 ...

油料日报 | 2026-01-27 豆一节前偏稳，花生供需胶着 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4384.00元/吨，较前日变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+56，较前日变化-20，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北大豆现货价格整体持稳。从市场结构来看，不同品质货源价格呈现分化，其中低端价格 略有抬升，高端价格则小幅回落，整体在多空力量相持下保持稳定。目前下游需求相对清淡，导致产区大豆走货 节奏依然偏缓。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤；黑龙江黑河 嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.30元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格冲高回落。南方市场因东北大豆价格偏高，部分需求开始转向本地货源 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点评 26 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8915/吨，日内涨幅 0.96%，持仓 增仓 20873 手至 25.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一 交易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水转至贴水 65 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 51280 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.19%，持仓减仓 4 手至 41287 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 54000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格 54000 元/吨，现货升水收至 2720 元/ 吨。四川地区全面停炉，云南因长协保留低负荷后续也面临减产，新疆 大厂规划月底减产 50%，供应端预期缩量下盘面逐渐向上修复，高低品 供应量劈叉。高盛最新预测 2026 年多晶硅将回落至 42 元/kg，硅料厂家 减产规模继续扩张，出口退税窗口前形成的抢出口动作将提前透支需 求，同时行业高库存稀释补库强度。节奏上现货报价逐渐失去支撑，盘 面近月支撑远月承压。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 ...