Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slowly recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is 10 yuan, unchanged; the main contract position is 196,440 lots, up 2,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 7,105 lots, up 7,452 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.91, down 0.01 [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,933 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 13 yuan; the main contract position is 276,136 lots, down 4,976 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,627.50 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 485,275 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum canceled warrants are 110,250 tons, up 67,400 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,350 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 7,979 lots, up 154 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 40 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 3.24 US dollars/ton, down 0.53 US dollars; the basis of alumina is 77 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 756.49 million tons per month, down 18.44 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.93%, down 1.09%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 722.07 million tons per month, up 25.88 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 160,494.61 tons per month, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume is 79.39 tons per month, up 15.06 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 23 million tons per month, up 6 million tons; the import volume is 12.59 million tons per month, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 18.31 million tons, down 9.41 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 57.60 million tons per week, up 0.40 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,198.71 tons per month, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons per month, unchanged [2]. - The export volume of primary aluminum is 40,987.71 tons per month, up 21,416.99 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.11%, up 0.33% [2]. - The aluminum product output is 548.37 million tons per month, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.40 million tons per month, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 62.32 million tons per month, up 0.43 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.49 million tons per month, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons per month, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output is 153.60 million tons per month, down 13.30 million tons; the automobile output is 251.02 million vehicles per month, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.04%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.59%, up 0.0027; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, up 0.0203 [2]. Industry News - From 2020 - 2024, the added values of China's equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increased by an average of 7.9% and 8.7% annually, accounting for 34.6% and 16.3% of above - scale industries respectively. In 2024, the production of new energy vehicles exceeded 13 million, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [2]. - Since August, the central government has been promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality + service" [2]. - China is upgrading from the "world factory" to the "global supply - chain hub". 80 national - level advanced manufacturing clusters cover high - end equipment and new energy fields, with a 37% penetration rate of AI in the logistics supply - chain [2]. - In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [2]. - The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, which may lead to Fed rate cuts [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August 2025, hot-rolled coil futures rose significantly compared to the previous month and then slightly corrected this month. Overall, the spot price of the hot-rolled coil market reached a high and then declined. The supply and demand situation was relatively healthy. Although the inventory increased slightly, the pressure was not too great. The demand for hot-rolled coils in finished products was better than that of building materials, mainly because the terminal demand for plates in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships was relatively strong, which could drive up the demand for hot-rolled coils [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reached a high at the beginning of August and then declined, closing with a negative line. The main contract HC2601 dropped 51 points. After a short-term rapid increase, the price fell and finally closed at 3,346 yuan/ton, a 1.5% decline from the July price [3]. - **Variety Market**: There are 12 listed contracts for hot-rolled coil futures. Except for the 2509 contract, the price spreads between other contracts have narrowed. The far-month contracts had relatively large fluctuations in price changes, with a decline ranging from 28 to 64 points. The trading volume of the main contract HC2601 was 1,166,633 lots, a month-on-month increase of approximately 696,000 lots [6][7]. - **Related Market**: In August, the price of hot-rolled coils declined following the decline in raw material prices. There were signs of a marginal weakening of coking coal and coke, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in an overall decline in the black sector prices in August [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, in August, the closing price of the active contract hot-rolled coil HC2601 futures was 3,346 yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm was 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis between Shanghai hot-rolled coil futures and spot was 34 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 14 yuan/ton [10]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In August, the number of registered warehouse receipts for hot-rolled coils decreased significantly compared to July, from a maximum of 80,166 lots to 25,059 lots as of August 29. The decrease from the beginning to the end of the month was 32,112 lots. According to the Wande Warehouse Receipt Daily Report, among the 18 warehouses, the largest changes were concentrated in Jiangsu warehouses, while the other warehouses were relatively stable [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: WIND data shows that the overall supply of the domestic hot-rolled coil market remained at a relatively high level in August. From a weekly perspective, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils fluctuated around 3.2 million tons, without significant increases or decreases, indicating that steel mills maintained a relatively stable production rhythm for this product. In addition, the supply of other major plate categories, such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates, was also at a high level year-on-year, reflecting that the production side of the entire plate sector remained strong in August. However, affected by the seasonal off-peak demand in August, the actual downstream procurement demand cooled down, and the supply side also made small adjustments according to the demand changes, ultimately showing a slight month-on-month decline. The overall supply and demand relationship was relatively well-matched. In terms of inventory, the hot-rolled coil inventory increased slightly in August. Considering the changes in supply and demand during the same period, although the supply remained high but then declined slightly, and the demand was in the off-peak season but did not shrink significantly, the gap between the two was relatively limited, and no obvious supply-demand imbalance occurred. The slight increase in inventory was more of a normal fluctuation due to seasonal factors and did not cause significant pressure on the market [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coil futures had a similar trend to related industrial varieties such as rebar. From the disk, the HC2601 contract was running below the 10-day moving average and close to the lower track of the BOLL, indicating a weak state [13][14]. 3.4 Market Outlook In August 2025, the hot-rolled coil plate market showed the fundamental characteristics of "high supply, weakening demand resilience, and inventory accumulation", with prices fluctuating downward and both the futures and spot markets weakening synchronously. The short-term supply-demand contradiction and cost support are in intensified competition. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom in September. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of the peak demand season and the implementation of policy production restrictions [16].

成文日期: 20250908 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:菜粕 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) timation 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250908）期货品种菜粕 rm2601 合约高开震荡调整。 较昨日上涨 0.24%，收至 2542 点。全日成交量为 37.14 万手，持 仓量为 39.35 万手。 图 1:菜粕 rm2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 1.2 品种价格 菜粕期货各合约全天均有不同涨跌。品种持仓量 491406 手,较 上一交易日增加 1810 手。 图 2：菜粕期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 合约代码 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 曾低价 | 交收最 | 令结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量(手) | 持仓量 | 増減量 | 成交额(万元) | 交割结算价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,054 | 24 | 0.79 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,366 | 46 | 1.39 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 230,792 | 673,564 | -51,071 | | | HC2510 | 136,672 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 481,052 前日价格 （元/吨） | -29,686 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3270 | 3260 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 08 日 铝：关注去库拐点 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20695 | 90 | -45 | 70 | 485 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20665 | ー | l | l | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2603 | 13 | -17 | -6 | 146 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 101535 | -49681 | -19707 | -23633 | -18350 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 197393 | -9224 | -39215 | -63970 | -5980 | | | 电解铝 | LME ...

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Weak operation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest fundamental data on aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and spot market prices, costs, and inventories [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, -1, and 0 respectively, indicating a neutral view on aluminum and aluminum alloy and a bearish view on alumina [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,605, down 105 from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 2,125, and the open interest decreased by 11,422 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,980, down 12 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 279,608, and the open interest was 3,753 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,215, down 70 from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 975, and the open interest decreased by 291 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,990.62, a decrease of 97.85 from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,188, a decrease of 16 from the previous trading day. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi was 190, a decrease of 15 from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was 373, an increase of 4 from the previous trading day. The three - place inventory totaled 33,928, an increase of 1,078 from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. In August, the US ISM services PMI index was 52, higher than the expected 51 and the previous value of 50.1 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved slightly, with increased buying from polyester factories, but the basis continued to weaken. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, and the spot market liquidity was fair. The spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of the Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price increased and then slightly adjusted, with active market transactions. The coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. The ethylene glycol futures rose and then slightly pulled back in the morning, and the buying in the market moderately followed up. In the afternoon, the basis of near - term goods continued to strengthen. It is expected that the arrival volume in early September will still be moderately low, and there is still room for a moderate decline in the port in the short term. From the demand perspective, it is expected that the average load in September can reach the 91.5% level, and the rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the ethylene glycol futures are under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price will be mainly range - bound, with strong support below. Subsequent attention should be paid to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated down, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened. 9 - lower transactions were concentrated, with prices around 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 57 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 41, with the futures at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.9 days, a 0.09 - day increase compared to the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main force position**: Net short position, short position increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to Hengli Huizhou device maintenance and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: Price increased and then adjusted, market transactions were active. Coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. Near - term basis strengthened. Foreign market was weak. Short - term arrival volume is moderately low, and port inventory may decline. Demand load is expected to reach 91.5% in September [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4456, 01 - contract basis is 99, with the futures at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.03 tons, a 2.6 - ton decrease compared to the previous period [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main force position**: Main force net short position, short position increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Price range - bound, with strong support below. Pay attention to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, demand, inventory, and other data [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data [12]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Positive Factors** - Some PTA device maintenance plans in August improved the supply - demand expectation [10]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market has some expectations for demand recovery [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. 3.6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the resistance level above should be watched for the market rebound [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation mode. The spot market for linear LL has some price cuts by Sinopec, while for drawing PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina keep prices stable. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The polyolefin spot prices are generally weak at the beginning of the month, and whether the stop - fall in the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7225, 7220, and 7170 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 20, and - 15 and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.28%, and - 0.21% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 235618, 5386, and 212, and the open interests were 502560, 31934, and 8450 with changes of 12101, 382, and - 77 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 50, and - 55, compared to previous values of 7, 55, and - 62 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6949, and 6828 respectively, with price drops of - 15, - 16, and - 32 and declines of - 0.22%, - 0.23%, and - 0.47% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 207771, 5643, and 396, and the open interests were 595380, 45582, and 5316 with changes of 15647, 379, and - 273 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 10, 121, and - 111, compared to previous values of - 11, 105, and - 94 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2381 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 587 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton [2]. Oil Price Information - On Thursday (September 4, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $63.84. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.99 per barrel, down $0.61 or 0.90% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.35 - $67.41 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,490 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.29%. The position decreased by 1,738 lots to 279,700 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade silicon dropped back to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 115 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,160 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position increased by 3,355 lots to 149,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,300 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading focus of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of terminal power station yields, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the sentiment in the silicon material market has cooled along with the downstream market. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy boosts and fundamental drags. Polysilicon has entered a range-bound mode with obvious tops and bottoms, and policy dynamics have a phased impact on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30 and the destocking situation in the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 115 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 319 to 50,348, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 955 tons to 252,265 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons, and the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 68,000 tons. The inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 48,500 tons. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 271,400 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 285 yuan/ton to 52,160 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 330 yuan/ton to 52,330 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 330 yuan to 3,330 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 11,040 tons to 206,400 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [12][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [27][29][33].

2025 年 09 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 尿素：现货成交清淡，期货收升水 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,714 | 1,746 | -32 127052 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,737 | 1,747 | -10 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 285,785 | 158,733 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 232,728 | 219,382 | 13346 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,205 | 7,205 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 992,534 | 554,611 | 437923 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | -4 | -36 | 3 2 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -104 | -136 | 3 2 ...