文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月15日 ETF 周报 本周医药 ETF 领涨，资金净赎回超 25 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 06 月 09 日至 2025 年 06 月 13 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.14%。宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.31%，收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.84%，收益 最高。按主题进行分类，医药 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.32%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 172.27 亿元，总体规模减少 275.83 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 5.30 亿元；按板块来看，周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 12.47 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多， 为 17.96 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的估值分 位数相对较低。与前周相比，周期、新能车、A5 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive trends in China's financial data for May, indicating a stable growth in money supply and social financing, primarily driven by government bond financing [1][2][4] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, which, while slightly lower than April, is significantly higher than the first quarter and the same period last year [1] - The total social financing scale grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, surpassing last year's figures by 3.83 trillion yuan, mainly due to a net increase in government bond financing [1][2] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated this year, particularly for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing local government hidden debts, which has positively impacted the stability of social financing [2] - In the first five months, local government special bonds issued totaled 1.63 trillion yuan, with May seeing the highest monthly issuance of 443.2 billion yuan [2] - The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 80% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan for debt replacement, indicating active fiscal policy efforts to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [2] Group 3 - New RMB loans totaled 10.68 trillion yuan in the first five months, although this is 460 billion yuan lower than the same period last year, the growth remains reasonable [3] - The efficiency of loan usage has improved, with the GDP generated per yuan of loan increasing from 3.22 yuan to 3.26 yuan year-on-year [3] - The structure of loans shows a high growth rate in inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector, while short-term loans have increased significantly, particularly for enterprises [3] Group 4 - The financing structure is optimizing, with the proportion of loans in the total social financing scale decreasing to 62%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while bond financing's share increased to 28.2%, up 1.7 percentage points [4] - The changes in the scale and proportion of loans and bonds reflect the overall changes in social financing and the support for the real economy, indicating a reduction in financing costs due to lower bond financing rates compared to loans [4] Group 5 - A series of new financial policies have been introduced to support the economy, including interest rate cuts and increased lending for agriculture and small businesses [5] - The People's Bank of China has injected liquidity of 1.1196 trillion yuan through various tools in May, aiming to enhance market expectations and transparency [5] Group 6 - Future financial data is expected to maintain a positive trend, with low interest rates helping to reduce overall financing costs and encouraging both loan and bond financing [6] - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and ongoing domestic policies are anticipated to further support financing demand, particularly in June, which is typically a month of high financing needs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the improvement in financial conditions in May, with social financing increasing by 2.3 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, while credit growth remains weak due to demand-side factors [1][7][13]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In May, social financing increased by 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, slightly above the market average expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The total social financing scale for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7]. Credit Analysis - The increase in real credit was 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a weaker demand side [8]. - The BCI index showed an improvement in the financing environment for enterprises, suggesting that supply conditions may not be weak [8][9]. Corporate Loans - Long-term loans for enterprises increased by 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan, reflecting weak investment in infrastructure and manufacturing [9]. - Short-term loans increased by 230 billion yuan year-on-year, while bill financing decreased by 282.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short-term loans due to higher yields [9]. Bond Financing - Corporate bonds increased by 149.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, likely due to lower deposit rates and increased credit bond financing [10][11]. - Government bonds increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan, reflecting accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans increased by 13.5 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth since March 2024, attributed to a weaker dollar and improved exchange rate expectations [11]. M1 Growth - M1 growth was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in economic conditions [12]. - However, M1 performance remains weak, with a decrease of 230.7 billion yuan in May compared to previous years, influenced by debt replacement and shifts in deposit preferences [12]. Overall Financial Conditions - The article concludes that while supply-side conditions have improved, demand-side expectations remain uncertain, with ongoing impacts from debt replacement affecting financial data [13].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a reasonable match with the real economy, with significant growth in social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth, all surpassing nominal GDP growth, suggesting a stable support for the real economy [1][2]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - In the first five months, the increment in social financing was 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - In May, the increment in social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [3]. - Government bonds were identified as the main driver for the rapid growth in social financing, with special refinancing bonds and new local special bonds contributing significantly [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, marking a record high for the year [3]. Loan Growth and Structure - The RMB loan balance at the end of May was 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [6]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 34.42 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.75 trillion yuan, up by 8.8% [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with many enterprises finding loans more attractive [8]. Market Confidence and Economic Activity - The increase in "liquid money" (M1) growth reflects the effectiveness of recent financial support measures in boosting market confidence and indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The overall financial volume is expected to maintain stability, supported by resilient economic development and proactive fiscal policies [11]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which are gradually taking effect [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is showing positive performance with a recent price of 123.87 yuan and a trading volume indicating strong liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Liquidity - As of June 10, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.05% [1]. - The ETF has a trading turnover of 4.34% with a total transaction value of 786 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.109 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Conditions - In the past 20 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 105 million yuan [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including May CPI and PPI, are expected to reflect weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, which may positively influence the bond market [2]. - The central bank's proactive measures, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signal a commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency [3]. - Individual investors can participate with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, ensuring immediate transaction execution [3].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent developments in China-US trade relations, highlighting the joint statement from the Geneva economic talks on May 12, 2025, where both countries agreed to modify tariffs on each other's goods [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the first 90 days and retain a 10% tariff, while China will similarly adjust its tariffs on US goods [2] - On May 14, the US reduced the tariff on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [2] - The US consumer price index (CPI) for April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in March, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - In April 2025, new RMB loans in China amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, while the total social financing scale was 1,158.5 billion, an increase of 1,224.3 billion year-on-year [3] - The broad money supply (M2) in China grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The bond market faced downward pressure following the "double reduction" policy, with short-term bonds strengthening while long-term bonds showed weakness due to profit-taking [4] - The overall bond market was under pressure after the joint statement from the China-US economic talks, leading to a slight widening of the yield spread [4]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250516 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。4 月新增社融和新增信贷 偏弱，主要是受美国关税政策冲击；但 4 月数据中仍反映出积极的财政政策 落地速度较快、居民购房需求仍在恢复趋势当中；5 月国内宏观政策加大宽 松力度、海外经贸形势出现较大变化，我们预计将提振二季度经济预期。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.82 | (0.68) | | 深证成指 | 10186.45 | (1.62) | | 沪深 300 | 3907.20 | (0.91) | | 中小 100 | 6321.96 | (1.34) | | 创业板指 | 2043.25 | (1.92) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.68 | 计算机 | (2.97) | | 煤炭 | 0.42 | 通信 | (2.45) ...