黑色系方面多飘红，不锈钢暂时收平于14725元/吨，铁矿涨1.21%，双焦方面，焦煤涨2.84%，焦炭涨 2.59%。 外盘方面，截至15:05分，外盘基本金属除了伦铅外一同上涨，伦铅跌0.42%。伦锡涨2.16%，伦镍涨 3.31%。其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅唯一下跌，跌幅达0.03%。沪锡以4.71%的涨幅领涨，沪镍 涨3.99%。沪铝涨1.12%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨0.96%，铸造铝主连涨0.83%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨7.31%，盘中一度冲至182000元/吨，刷新2023年9月以来的新高；多晶硅涨0.86%， 工业硅涨0.11%。欧线集运主连跌0.1%报1138.3。 宏观面 国内方面： 【央行公开市场今日净投放383亿元】央行今日开展1250亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与 此前持平。因今日有867亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放383亿元。 ►1月23日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币6.9929元 美元方面： 截至15:05分，美元指数上涨0.13%报98.41，三季度美国 ...

每经AI快讯，1月23日消息，法国1月制造业PMI初值为51，预期50.5，前值50.7；1月服务业PMI初值为 47.9，预期50.5，前值50.1。 ...

Core Insights - Japan's manufacturing activity expanded in January for the first time in seven months, driven by a significant rise in new export orders, marking a return to expansionary territory with a PMI of 51.5 [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The S&P Global flash Japan Manufacturing PMI increased from 50.0 in December to 51.5 in January, indicating growth [1] - Key sub-indexes showed that factory output and new orders ended their contraction streaks, with new export orders climbing at the fastest rate since November 2021 [2] - Input price inflation for manufacturers reached a nine-month high, while they raised prices charged to customers at a faster rate in January [5] Services Sector - The flash Japan services PMI improved from 51.6 in December to 53.4 in January, indicating the steepest increase in services activity since last July [3] - The flash composite PMI rose to 52.8 from 51.1 in December, reflecting overall growth in both manufacturing and services [3] Employment and Capacity - Growing customer demand led to increased pressure on capacity, with outstanding business rising at the fastest rate since late 2007 [4] - Employment across Japan increased at the steepest rate since April 2019, driven by the need for more staff [4] Future Outlook - Both manufacturers and service firms forecast growth in future output, although optimism has slightly decreased due to concerns about rising costs, global economic uncertainty, labor shortages, and an aging population [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its growth forecast and signal readiness for the next rate hike, influenced by recent yen falls and a solid wage outlook [5]

澳大利亚1月标普全球服务业PMI初值 56，前值51.1。澳大利亚1月标普全球综合PMI初值 55.5，前值 51。澳大利亚1月标普全球制造业PMI初值 52.4，前值51.6。 ...

Economic Performance - Q4 2025 GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate difference narrowed to -0.7%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3] - The annual GDP growth target of 5.0% was successfully achieved for 2025[3] Income and Consumption - Disposable income growth slightly declined to 5.0% in Q4 2025, with a decrease in operational net income growth[4] - The consumption rate for households fell to 72.7%, marking a historically low level[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% in December 2025[14] - Infrastructure investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure down 16.0% year-on-year in December[5] - Real estate investment saw a sharp decline of 17.2% year-on-year, with December's monthly decline reaching 35.8%[5] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales (social zero) fell by 0.3% year-on-year to 3.7%, with a monthly decline of 0.4% to 0.9%[6] - Service retail continued to outperform goods retail, with the gap expanding to 1.5% in December[6] Future Outlook - Economic performance in December showed signs of marginal improvement, with expectations for Q1 2026 GDP growth to improve due to early policy implementations[7] - Risks include potential policy changes and unexpected economic downturns in the U.S.[8]

再推【钨】：顺价延续，逻辑完美 20260116 摘要 2025 年四季度前，中钨高新、厦钨等外购矿比例高的企业面临亏损， 因民用领域被动接受价格上涨，未能主动承接。但四季度起，刀具企业 如华锐、中屋频繁涨价，APT 和碳化钨粉理论利润大幅提升至 4 万元/吨， 受益于原料告急和库存下降。 下游数控机床、挖掘机需求回升，国内 PMI 超预期回升至景气区间，拉 动总需求。历史数据显示，PMI 显著高于 50 时，钨标的迎来业绩与估 值双升，硬质合金产量增长超 10%，制造业景气度上行利好钨企业。 美联储降息预期增强，将推动经济复苏，产业备库或将加大。硬质合金 代表的泛制造业需求与 PMI 景气度互相验证，民用需求将接力，为钨板 块带来持续投资机会。 硬质合金年化产量增长可达 10%以上，需求占比 60%-70%，直接拉动 6-7 个百分点的需求，市场景气度高。 钨在战略性备库中用于穿甲弹、防护装甲、航空航天等领域，消耗速度 快，战时价格可能超过黄金。美国计划投资 25 亿美元建立战略韧性储 备，优先收购钨等关键金属，将显著增加钨需求。 Q&A 2025 年四季度钨板块的市场表现如何？ 2025 年四季度，钨板块 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, reaching historical highs, with prices exceeding $90 per ounce and the gold-silver ratio dropping to 50.57, the lowest in 13 years [1][2] - Since early 2025, silver has outperformed gold, with price increases of 190% for silver compared to 75% for gold, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][2] - The traditional correlation between the gold-silver ratio and the U.S. PMI has broken down, as the PMI remains below the growth threshold while the gold-silver ratio has improved [3][4] Group 2 - Silver's strategic resource attributes are being reinforced, leading to potential risks of increased tariffs on silver by the U.S., which could heighten trade disruptions compared to the gold market [4][5] - The importance of silver in industrial applications is growing, particularly in green energy and digital transformation, with silver being crucial for solar panels and electric vehicles [5][6] - The global silver supply has become more rigid since 2015, with annual supply levels stabilizing between 30,000 to 33,000 tons, while demand has surged due to industrial applications [8][9] Group 3 - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to inventory dynamics, with a significant shift in global silver stocks due to tariff expectations and market arbitrage [7][8] - The valuation of silver is influenced by both its commodity attributes and its financial attributes, with current market conditions highlighting its commodity characteristics due to supply shortages [8][9] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, has been a major driver of price increases, with global demand for silver in solar applications reaching 6,146.05 tons in 2024, a 67% increase from 2022 [10][11] Group 4 - The current gold-silver ratio of 50 suggests a potential turning point in the market, with historical patterns indicating that such low ratios may precede market corrections or shifts [11][12] - Analysts predict that the gold-silver ratio may stabilize within the 40-80 range, influenced by the dynamics of silver inventory and market balance [12][13] - The ongoing economic conditions, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, are drawing parallels to the 1970s, suggesting that the current precious metals bull market may continue [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to trade in a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly and downstream order cycles shorten. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity and a decline in agricultural film orders [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropping to around 24% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years after good destocking after the New Year's Day holiday. The cost of crude oil has declined as the situation in Iran cools down. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and there are slightly fewer maintenance units recently. Although the downstream BOPP film price rebounded, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased with reduced positions, closing at 6496 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was between 6489 - 6604 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5929 lots to 485,733 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking was good after the New Year's Day holiday, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's March contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6].

Group 1 - The outlook for the US economy is pessimistic, with a strong likelihood of an interest rate cut as economic growth stabilizes but demand momentum weakens, leading to increasing economic downward pressure [1] - Consumer confidence index and personal disposable income growth have been declining since the beginning of the year, while the PMI for investments continues to trend downward, remaining below the threshold [1] - The unemployment rate has significantly increased, reaching its highest level since September 2021, indicating challenges for the Federal Reserve in balancing economic growth and inflation [1] Group 2 - Following the public health crisis, global central banks have significantly expanded their balance sheets, impacting monetary credit, with a historical positive correlation between gold reserves and gold prices [2] - Central banks have increased their gold purchases, with over 1,000 tons bought for three consecutive years, and China's central bank has continued to increase its gold holdings for 14 months [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical issues and tariff policies have heightened investment in safe-haven assets, with gold ETF holdings and trading activity reaching historical highs [3] - Emerging funds, including domestic insurance capital, are rapidly entering the gold market, providing new momentum for rising gold prices [3] Group 4 - Silver has dual pricing attributes, with over 50% of its demand coming from industrial use, particularly in solar applications, while supply growth remains limited, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [4] - The historical relationship between the gold-silver ratio and PMI suggests that a decline in the gold-silver ratio could lead to a price increase for silver, especially with anticipated industrial demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025, which exceeded expectations, signals a potential bullish market trend for 2026, reminiscent of the 2008-2009 market recovery [1][6][26]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight months [5][16]. - The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, while the composite PMI rose to 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [5][16]. - Historical trends show that PMIs typically experience seasonal declines at year-end, but the current data reflects a significant "reverse seasonal" increase, indicating stronger economic potential for Q1 2026 [5][16]. Sector Performance - The production index and new orders index for December were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing substantial increases, particularly the new orders index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since the second half of 2025 [9][20]. - Industries such as food processing, textiles, and electronics showed production and new orders indices above 53.0%, indicating robust demand, while sectors like non-metallic minerals and black metal processing faced challenges with indices below the critical point [9][20]. Market Sentiment - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong willingness for production expansion, as indicated by rising PMI indices for production activities and procurement [17][20]. - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026, occurring later than usual, has prompted companies to adjust production schedules to avoid disruptions, contributing to increased production activity [21]. Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index decreased by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, suggesting improved pricing dynamics and potential profit margins for mid- and downstream industries [21]. - The new export orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points, reflecting enhanced resilience in Chinese exports and reduced dependency on specific markets [21]. Construction Sector - The construction business activity index surged to 52.8%, a significant increase of 3.2 percentage points, indicating a recovery in the construction sector after four months below the critical threshold [22][23]. - Factors contributing to this increase include favorable weather conditions in southern provinces and proactive measures by companies to accelerate construction progress [22][23]. Conclusion - The December 2025 PMI's unexpected rise suggests renewed policy momentum, with expectations for a strong economic start in Q1 2026, supporting a bullish outlook for the upcoming "spring market rally" [24][26].