Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the potential U.S. government shutdown may end within two weeks, with a 96.2% market expectation for an interest rate cut in October, although the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts due to improving employment data and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. services PMI showed stagnation in expansion for September, with both production and demand weakening, while employment saw a slight recovery but price indices remained high [1] - The manufacturing PMI indicated a slowing contraction, with weakened demand but a recovery in production and employment, alongside a slight decrease in price indices [1] - The inventory index showed increased contraction as businesses continued to deplete previously accumulated inventories [1] Employment and Government Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to result in 700,000 federal employees facing unpaid leave, with the White House freezing nearly $30 billion in transfer payments [1] - Each week of the shutdown is projected to reduce GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, with short-term impacts on the market being minimal; however, a shutdown lasting over two weeks may heighten market risk aversion [1] - Data on non-farm employment for the month has not yet been released, but initial unemployment claims across states indicate a decrease in first-time claims by the end of September, suggesting stability in the employment market [1]

Based on the PMI, it doesn’t look like Bitcoin is anywhere near a top yet…What do you think? https://t.co/pBMwDvdPFV ...

10月3日周五，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国服务业9月陷入停滞。订单和商业活动疲软，就业也连续第四个月萎 缩。 美国9月ISM非制造业指数50，大幅不及预期的51.7，前值52。50为荣枯分水岭。9月ISM服务业PMI低于媒体调查的所有经济学家的预 估。 重要分项指数方面： 数据公布后，美国10年期国债收益率短线震荡于4.10%-4.08%区间，两年期美债收益率在美国ISM服务业PMI发布时跳水至3.54%下 方、日内整体转跌、瞬间又反弹至接近3.555%的水平。 分析指出，作为美国经济最大组成部分的服务业表现令人失望。本周早些时候的一份报告显示，美国ISM制造业PMI连续第七个月收 缩。由于美国政府停摆导致官方数据缺失，经济学家和决策者将更多地依赖ISM调查等私营机构的报告来洞察就业市场和整体经济状 况。 当日稍早公布的另一重要美国PMI数据显示： S&P Global Market Intelligence首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示： 9月份服务业增长略有放缓，但整体仍然足够强劲，使得第三季度整体表现令人印象深刻。再加上制造业的持续增长，服 务业活动的扩张表明， ...

Um, meantime, uh, record high S&P NASDAQ, no jobs numbers we said, but due to the shutdown, but we do have services PMI from S&P Global. Let's get to Rick Santelli. Hey Rick.Hi Carl. Indeed, these are S&P Global. Top of the hour, we get ISM.So, we do have data points, just not the ones that go through the government. Our September final read, well, 53.9% becomes 54.2%. There's a nice improvement there.Now, even though that's only the best since August, uh the negative is is that it's sequentially lower than ...

U.S. stocks traded higher this morning, with the Dow Jones index gaining more than 200 points on Friday.Following the market opening Friday, the Dow traded up 0.49% to 46,749.15 while the NASDAQ fell 0.01% to 22,842.14. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.14% to 6,724.95.Check This Out: Top 3 Financial Stocks That Could Blast Off In OctoberLeading and Lagging SectorsUtilities shares jumped by 0.9% on Friday.In trading on Friday, communication services stocks fell by 0.9%.Top HeadlineThe ISM services PMI decli ...

Wow. Meanwhile, getting a little bit of a bid after a lower open. Dow's down about 37.ISM's coming out of the top of the hour. First though, some manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global. Let's get to Rick Santelli.Hey Rick. >> Yes, Carl. These are the September final reads on S&P uh Global's manufacturing PMIs.The midmon read for September was 52. It remains at 52. This will be the lightest going back to July when it was a bit under 50.And July is the only month this year that is below 50. We did see ADP come in ...

Group 1: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - In September, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous month, indicating slight recovery in the manufacturing sector driven by production, while demand remains sluggish [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.0%, up 0.2%, while medium and small enterprises showed PMIs of 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, indicating mixed performance across different enterprise sizes [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, with the construction sector slightly improving to 49.3% and the service sector declining to 50.1% [2][3] Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment in Egypt - Egypt's FDI inflow reached $46.1 billion, ranking 9th globally, up from 32nd in 2023, and it has become Africa's top FDI destination for three consecutive years, accounting for nearly 49% of the region's total FDI [4] - The introduction of the golden license for foreign investments has attracted significant capital, with many Chinese companies investing in various sectors in Egypt [4][5] - The Egyptian government has implemented favorable policies, such as tax exemptions and zero land rent, to attract foreign investment amid external debt pressures [4] Group 3: Automotive Industry and Subsidy Policies - Several regions in China have suspended their vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, including Jiangsu and Ningbo, as part of a broader trend of dynamic adjustments to these policies [6] - The central government has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs, indicating a controlled approach to subsidy distribution [6][7] Group 4: Real Estate Market Regulations - The Beijing Real Estate Brokerage Association has issued guidelines to regulate real estate brokerage practices, prohibiting malicious price suppression and false listings [8] - Despite the challenges posed by "black brokers," the real estate market in Beijing has shown signs of recovery, with new housing transactions increasing significantly [8][9] Group 5: AI and Technology Developments - DeepSeek's new model, V3.2, has been released, featuring a sparse attention mechanism that enhances efficiency in processing long texts while reducing computational resource consumption [10][11] - OpenAI reported a significant loss of $13.5 billion in the first half of the year, despite generating $4.3 billion in revenue, highlighting the financial challenges faced by leading AI companies [12][13] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Market Trends - Pop Mart's new product series has seen a surge in demand, with some items experiencing price increases of nearly 10 times on secondary markets, indicating strong consumer interest [14][15] - The company faces challenges in maintaining consumer engagement and developing a robust IP content system to sustain interest beyond initial product launches [15] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong performance with major indices rising, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which benefited from recent technological advancements [16][17] - Overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations for continued upward movement in the near term [17]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in economic output [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [2] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities have accelerated, with the production index reaching 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high [1] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating improved market demand [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.0%, indicating stability, while the service sector index is slightly higher at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [2] - Certain industries, including postal, telecommunications, and financial services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating strong growth [2] - However, sectors closely related to consumer spending, such as dining and entertainment, have seen indices drop below the critical point due to the end of the summer season [2] Economic Outlook - The production and operation activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations for the near term [2] - Analysts predict that the "year-end effect" and "holiday effect" will boost investment and consumption-related demand, particularly in construction and service sectors [2] - Overall, the macroeconomic environment is expected to continue improving in the fourth quarter, supported by potential policy measures and market confidence [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In September 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[13] - New orders index was at 49.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points but still in the contraction zone[13] Group 2: Raw Materials and Pricing - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased slightly to 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points[19] - The procurement volume index rose to 51.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated raw material purchases[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index fell to 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, with notable sector differentiation[22] - The construction business activity index was at 49.3%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the critical point[26] Group 4: Economic Policy and Risks - The government announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan to support project capital, aimed at boosting infrastructure activities[27] - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[28]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September shows a slight recovery, indicating improved production activity, with the production index rising to 51.9% from 50.8% in the previous month [2][4][11]. Group 1: Production Strengthening - The overall PMI index for September is 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, primarily driven by a rebound in production [4][9]. - The recovery in production is attributed to stronger performance in the midstream and downstream sectors, with the midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reaching 51.9% and the consumer goods PMI at 50.6% [4][9]. - Factors contributing to this recovery include inventory replenishment and strong external demand, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI increase to 50.9% in August and a 7.3% year-on-year growth in port container throughput in September [4][9]. Group 2: Data Insights - The September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, with specific indices showing: production index at 51.9%, new orders index at 49.7%, new export orders index at 47.8%, employment index at 48.5%, and raw material inventory index at 48.5% [2][11]. - The price index shows a decline, with the PMI output price index at 48.2%, continuing below the neutral line for 16 consecutive months [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month but still below last year's level, while the service sector remains in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.1% [3][14]. Group 3: Expectations and Comprehensive Output - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1% in September, reflecting increased confidence among businesses, particularly in sectors like food processing and automotive [3][14]. - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities across sectors [3][14].