编者按： "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总 量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资规模、广义货币供应量（M2）是观测金融总 量的主要指标，也是当前我国货币政策主要的中间变量。尽管近年来央行多次强调将不断优化货币政策 中间变量，淡化对数量目标的关注，把金融总量更多作为观测性、参考性、预期性指标，但短期看，推 动社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，依然是观测金融支持实体 经济是否"给力"的重要参考。 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋 合理。长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期 有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府 债券将保持较大发行规模，央 ...

12月18日，中国人民银行官网公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了883亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 事实上，央行重启14天期逆回购，时机选在年末，完全符合惯例。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，年末的时候，市场资金面容易出现波动：比如银行要应对年终考 核、财政收支会有大额变动、居民可能会提前取现准备过年，这些都会让市场上的资金暂时变得紧张。 央行此时重启14天期逆回购，就是提前出手平稳波动。 因今日有1186亿元7天期逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放697亿元。 风口财经注意到，中国人民银行上次开展14天期逆回购操作是在9月26日，因此，这是央行时隔近三个 月重启14天期逆回购操作。 提前出手平稳波动 首先来搞懂，什么是14天期逆回购？ 14天期逆回购是央行进行公开市场操作的一种工具，属于短期流动性调节手段之一。 简单说，就是央行给市场上的金融机构 "投放短期资金"，同时收下这些机构手里的国债、央行票据等 安全资产作为抵押，约定14天后再把资产还给机构，金融机构需向央行支付相应利息，央行则收回此前 投放的资金 ...

货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋合理。 长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期有公开市场7天 期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府债券将保持较大发行规 模，央行有必要通过多种流动性投放工具营造适宜的流动性环境，引导金融机构加大对重点领域、薄弱环节的 支持力度。 编者按： 日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济工 作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署 问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面 热点问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"是今年中央经济工作会议的新提法。在上述总 体目标下，明年如何灵活高效地运用多种货币政策工具备受外界关注。 "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总量保持 合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资 ...

阿波罗资产管理公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕.斯洛克表示，美联储官员在展望2026年时，正日益关注滞 胀风险。这种风险表现为经济增长放缓与物价上涨并存的局面。 作为该流程的一部分，FOMC与会者被要求判断通胀和失业风险相对于其基准展望是偏向上行还是下 行。最近的预测显示出了显著的变化：官员们普遍认为通胀和失业率都存在更大的上行风险，这是一种 极不寻常且令人担忧的组合。 斯洛克指出，这些评估表明，美联储担心会出现一段即使劳动力市场状况走弱、价格压力仍无法降温的 时期。这样的结果将使货币政策变得复杂，限制美联储在不加剧通胀的情况下刺激增长的能力。 尽管美联储的基准预测并未将滞胀假设为最可能发生的结果，但风险平衡情况表明决策者正在为这种可 能性做准备。对于投资者而言，这一信息似乎强调了进入2026年的经济路径可能充满挑战，增长、就业 和通胀都存在不确定性。 斯洛克的观点反映了决策者在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议前准备的预测报告中对经济风险的描述 方式。 ...

摘要北京时间周四(12月18日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货黄金开盘于4340.68美元/盎 司，目前交投于4332.10美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于974.48元/克附近，沪金主力交投于980.00元/克附 近。 北京时间周四(12月18日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货黄金开盘于4340.68美元/盎司，目 前交投于4332.10美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于974.48元/克附近，沪金主力交投于980.00元/克附近。 上一交易日美元指数收涨0.18%，报99.319，现货黄金收涨0.81%，报4337.16美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属纷纷上涨：现货白银收涨3.82%，报66.17美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.62%，报 1896.20美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.52%，至1646.50美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月17日COMEX黄金库存1119.46吨，较前一交易日保持不变；COMEX白银库存14088.35吨，较前一 交易日减少27.85吨。 09:00中国11月Swift人民币在全球支付中占比 10:00美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话 1 ...

（本文作者阮加，北京交通大学中国金融研究中心主任） 刚刚结束的中央经济工作会议指出，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合 理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币 政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。" 结合两年政策部署来看，2024年中央经济工作会议强调"保持就业、物价总体稳定"；2025年会议明确提 出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，这也是今年会议的新提法。据国家 统计局数据显示，2025年1—11月平均，全国居民消费价格与上年同期持平。既契合上年政策目标，也 为朝着新目标实现进一步上升预留了空间。 货币政策的主要任务是总需求管理，维持合理的物价则是达成这一任务的重要基础。通货膨胀率如同经 济体温，不能太高或太低。 适度通货膨胀率是经济活力的基础，也是经济增长、充分就业的基础。发达国家多将2%作为目标通胀 率，高增长发展中国家的通货膨胀率多高于3%。1992-2010年中国高增长时期年均通货膨胀率约为 5.2%，扣除物价因素后，同期实际GDP年均增长率约为10.32% ...

Fiscal Data - In the first 11 months of this year, national fiscal revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate of the previous 10 months[2] - Central government revenue has shown a declining trend since the second half of 2023, with a continuous year-on-year contraction expected in 2024, although the decline is narrowing[2] - Local government revenue saw a minimum year-on-year growth rate near 0% at the beginning of 2024, but has gradually increased since then[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose in 2025, aiming to support economic growth and price recovery, with a focus on meeting the financing needs of the real economy[3] - Structural tools will target key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises[3] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.4%, with total trading volume reaching 1.811146 trillion yuan, an increase of 869.72 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index surged by 3.39%, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 2.47%[4] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on the 10-year government bond was 1.8367%, with a change of -1.2 basis points[5] - The US dollar index closed at 98.3983, up by 0.18%, while the offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar by 39 basis points, with an exchange rate of 7.04[6] Market Trends - The total market turnover was reported at 1.8344 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.53%[19] - The net inflow of funds was highest in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electric power equipment sectors[24] Risks - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the US[27]

12月18日 资讯分享 周三，现货黄金一度重回4340美元附近，随后开启宽幅震荡，最终收涨0.84%，报4338.44美元/盎司； 现货白银将历史新高刷新至66美元上方，最终收涨3.87%，报66.19美元/盎司。 因特朗普对委内瑞拉的封锁缓解了全球供应过剩担忧，油价大幅反弹。WTI原油最终收涨3.03%，报 56.70美元/桶；布伦特原油重回60美元上方，最终收涨2.95%，报60.79美元/桶。 美联储联合调查：关税持续困扰企业，预计明年物价上涨4%。 美联储理事沃勒：货币政策仍处于限制性区间，仍有降息空间。就业市场表明美联储应继续降息。利率 水平比中性利率高出50到100个基点。 美媒称若俄罗斯拒绝俄乌和平协议，美国将对俄"影子舰队"采取新制裁。白宫回应：暂无任何新决定。 美媒：美俄将于本周末在迈阿密就俄乌冲突举行会谈。 ...

【要闻速递】 在过去三年中，月度消费者价格指数（CPI）一直是美国股票交易员关注的焦点。然而，最近投资者对 即将公布的11月通胀数据的态度发生了显著变化。他们不再像以前那样紧张不安地等待数据公布，而是 以一种相对漠然的态度面对。 这种市场情绪的转变有其合理之处。首先，美联储近期似乎更关注劳动力市场的疲软信号，而非通胀率 的小幅波动。其次，原定于12月10日发布的11月CPI报告因政府停摆而推迟至周四出炉，这导致市场对 该数据的可靠性产生了疑虑。此外，由于缺少10月的数据，这份CPI报告无法全面反映整体通胀情况。 尽管存在这些不确定性因素，但大多数分析师仍预计11月的CPI同比涨幅将保持在3%左右，这与市场预 期相符。然而，如果数据出现大幅超出或低于预期的情况，可能会对市场产生一定影响。例如，若数据 达到3.5%，可能会让交易员措手不及；反之，若数据大幅好于预期——比如2.7%或更低——则可能被 视为积极意外。 除了经济基本面因素外，政治因素也在一定程度上影响了市场对CPI数据的关注程度。随着美联储主席 鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束，其继任者预计将采取更加宽松的货币政策以迎合美国总统特朗普的要 求。这使得一些交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].