Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The current bond market has investment value, but the trading sentiment should be "halted, not chased." If there is a policy rate cut, the short - end and long - end yields will show different trends, and redemption disturbances may increase [3][10][19]. - The financial data shows marginal improvement. The abnormal fluctuation of non - bank deposits may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions. The growth of residents' medium - and long - term credit is a positive marginal signal [3][11]. - The broad fiscal policy has intensified efforts at the beginning of the fourth quarter, including the launch of new policy - based financial tools and the issuance of local government bonds. This may drive the re - issuance of PSL, and increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [3][4][13]. - A window for monetary easing may open. With the intensification of fiscal policy, the total monetary policy may be loosened, and there are suitable time windows for this [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Policy - **Policy - based Financial Tools**: In late September, a new policy - based financial tool with a total amount of 50 billion yuan was announced. It will be jointly funded by three policy banks and support areas such as "technological innovation, green transformation, consumption upgrade, and foreign trade stability." The historical PSL has been concentratedly issued in three rounds, and this new tool may drive the re - issuance of PSL [13][15]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The Ministry of Finance will allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local areas. The current year's local government debt limit and balance have a revitalization space of about 1.2 trillion yuan. This issuance may increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [13][17]. 3.2 Financial Data - **Residents' Medium - and Long - term Credit**: In September, residents' medium - and long - term new loans increased year - on - year, which is a marginal positive signal [11]. - **Non - bank Deposits**: Non - bank deposits declined beyond the seasonal norm, with significantly increased volatility. This may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions to reduce the scale of non - bank deposits at the end of the quarter, and institutions such as money funds and wealth management products have increased their investment in short - term fixed deposits [11]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - **Policy Synergy**: With the strengthening of the synergy effect of macro - policies, the linkage between fiscal and monetary policies has increased in recent years. After the broad fiscal policy enters the window of strength, the total monetary policy may be loosened [19]. - **Time Window**: Around important meetings in October and around the Politburo meeting are suitable time windows for monetary easing. The adjustment of the equity market and the decline of the non - manufacturing employment sub - index are also favorable factors [19].

Group 1 - The global financial markets are set to release key economic data this week, with the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being the most anticipated [1] - Major economies including the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Japan will also release inflation data, which will significantly impact central bank monetary policy directions [1] - The US earnings season continues, and investors are advised to closely monitor these data and events to better gauge market trends [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the focus will be on Eurozone data, particularly Germany's September Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to show negative growth [3] - The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index is also expected to remain negative, indicating potential risks to US economic growth [3] - On Tuesday, Canada's CPI is anticipated to remain below the 2% target, while ECB President Lagarde's speech will be closely watched for insights on economic and interest rate outlooks [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the UK CPI data will be released, with market attention on whether the annual rate remains at 3.8% for the third consecutive month [4] - High inflation has previously led to a reassessment of the Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations, which may be influenced by the upcoming inflation report [4] Group 4 - On Thursday, investors will focus on the Eurozone's October Consumer Confidence Index, which has been stable since May [6] - The US initial jobless claims will also be monitored for any significant changes [6] Group 5 - On Friday, Japan's September CPI is expected to accelerate, with the core CPI projected to rise to 2.9% [6] - The US CPI report is anticipated to show an increase to 3.1%, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [8] - Additionally, preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data for October will be released, with particular attention on the pressures facing UK and European manufacturing [8]

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在过往的交易周期中，市场已然连续九周呈现周线收阳的良好态势。而本周的周K线走势，初步可判断 其进入了调整阶段。尤为值得关注的是，周五市场出现强势下跌行情，这一跌势不仅将当日早些时候的 上涨成果尽数抹去，还使得整体行情暂时陷入滞涨局面。 摘要今日周一（10月20日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4270美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4259.68美元/盎司，涨幅00.26%，最高上探4273.26美元/盎司，最低触及4218.19美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周一（10月20日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4270美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4259.68 美元/盎司，涨幅00.26%，最高上探4273.26美元/盎司，最低触及4218.19美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 在当前经济形势下，劳动力及零售领域的最新数据缺失，给政策制定者带来了不小的挑战。当他们试图 判断通胀放缓的程度能否支撑持续宽松的货币政策时，往往只能依据那些不够全面或是已然过时的信 息。而周五即将公布的消费者价格指数（CPI），极有可能成为美联储在下一周做出关键 ...

2025年10月20日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.290 | 105.780 | 105.695 | 108.295 | 107.980 | 115.87 | 115.57 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.362 | 102.274 | 105.705 | 105.600 | 108.165 | 107.870 | 114.96 | 114.68 | | | 涨跌 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.130 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the new LPR rates remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations [1] - The stability in LPR rates is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and rising financing costs for commercial banks, which limits their motivation to lower LPR quotes [1][2] - The recent external volatility and the need for economic stability may lead to a potential reduction in LPR rates by the end of the year, as the central bank may implement new interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown a decline due to multiple factors including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments [2] - The acceleration in export growth is influenced by trade transfer effects and changes in the previous year's base, alongside supportive fiscal policies and earlier monetary easing [2] - The central bank's potential interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate internal financing demand, which is crucial for promoting consumption and investment in response to external demand slowdowns [2]

日本央行审议委员高田创：我们需要在假设日本央行物价目标已经实现的前提下讨论货币政策。美联储 恢复降息本可能会限制日本央行的政策灵活性，但这次情况并非如此，因为美联储降息是出于风险管理 的角度，而非担心经济衰退。日本正出现通胀的"第二轮效应"可能扩大的条件。从经济即将迎来"真正 的黎明"的角度来看，日本央行必须在实施货币政策时，分几个阶段逐步"转换档位"。 ...

多位业内人士表示，10月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。 文/刘佳 10月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新一期LPR报价。其中，1年期品种报 3.0%，上月为3.0%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上月为3.5%。这是LPR自今年5月下降以来，连续5个月维 持不变。 值得注意的是，9月美联储恢复降息，并有可能连续降息，外部因素对国内实施适度宽松货币政策的掣 肘进一步弱化。机构预计，年底前央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟 进下调。 招联首席研究员董希淼向《华夏时报》记者分析称，四季度是稳增长政策收官之时，央行或将结合降准 等其他的政策工具，通过恢复国债买卖来向银行体系注入长期流动性，引导金融机构加大信贷投放。如 果政策利率进一步下降，银行资金成本继续下行，未来两个月LPR或将有5基点至10基点降幅。 编辑：冯樱子 机构分析认为，10月以来政策利率（央行7天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，意味着当月LPR报价的定价基 础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示10月LPR报价会保持不动。另外，受反内卷牵动市场预期等影 响，近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA ...

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year reached 5.2% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. The economy is showing a steady recovery, but faces significant risks and challenges ahead [1][2]. Economic Performance - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the macroeconomic indicators remain stable, and high-quality development has achieved positive results. However, the economy still requires stronger foundations for recovery [1]. - Forecasts for the fourth quarter suggest increased downward pressure on the economy due to high base effects, tariff uncertainties, and the waning impact of previous policies. Achieving the annual growth target of around 5% will require focused policy efforts to stabilize investment and boost consumption [1][2]. Policy Outlook - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will see a complex economic situation, with potential declines in export growth and insufficient internal consumption and investment momentum. The previous year's policy measures have raised the base significantly, leading to downward pressure on GDP growth [2][4]. - A new round of growth-stabilizing policies, including a 500 billion yuan financial tool, is expected to be introduced, focusing on fiscal support, monetary easing, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market [2][4]. GDP Growth Projections - GDP growth for the fourth quarter is estimated to be around 4.7%, with an overall trend of "high at the beginning and low at the end" for the year. The third quarter is typically a low point due to the timing of policy effects [4]. - The China Banking Research Institute projects fourth quarter GDP growth at approximately 4.5%, with an annual growth forecast of around 5% [4]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report emphasizes the need for fiscal policies to play a supportive role, with timely introduction of effective incremental policies to ensure the achievement of annual growth targets. Monetary policy should remain flexible and responsive to domestic and international economic conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and weak domestic real estate sales [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The stability of the LPR was anticipated following the PBOC's decision to maintain the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate at 2.75% while renewing 500 billion yuan [3]. - The one-year LPR has remained stable since a 10 basis point reduction in June, while the five-year LPR has gradually decreased from 4.3% since August of the previous year, indicating a shift from aggressive monetary easing to more precise support measures [3][6]. - The current banking net interest margin has fallen below 1.7%, prompting banks to lower deposit rates to create space for LPR stability, reflecting a balance sought by the PBOC between bank profitability and financing costs for the real economy [5]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Balance - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by a balance between inflation and growth, with September's CPI showing zero growth and PPI rising by 0.4%, alongside rising international oil prices and potential import price increases due to currency fluctuations [6]. - Despite a GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3, concerns remain regarding a 9.1% decline in real estate investment and continuous negative export growth, suggesting that maintaining low interest rates supports manufacturing and infrastructure financing while avoiding additional pressure on the currency [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC's monetary policy committee has indicated that the LPR is likely to remain stable until at least December, with a focus on observing the effects of previous measures [7]. - Should certain conditions arise, such as a conclusion to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle or significant changes in domestic inflation or real estate sales, the PBOC may consider emergency measures [7]. - The PBOC is more inclined to use reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts rather than interest rate cuts, with an average RRR of 7.4%, allowing for liquidity release while reducing bank funding costs [7]. Group 4: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has emphasized the use of structural tools, with over 6 trillion yuan in re-lending and a focus on targeted infrastructure projects to avoid broad monetary easing while supporting weak sectors [8]. - The deepening of interest rate marketization through deposit rate cuts and adjustments to existing mortgage rates aims to alleviate bank margin pressures and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The unchanged five-year LPR, coupled with adjustments to real estate credit policies, suggests that certain cities may implement lower interest rate floors to stimulate local markets [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a stable and slightly upward trend, but there are still uncertainties. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. - Different industries have different market trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the black industry, steel may experience shock adjustments, while coal and coke may continue to be shock - strong in the short term; in the agricultural product industry, cotton and sugar face supply - side pressure, while eggs have a high - inventory and weak - demand situation. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to expand green trade and studied agricultural production work, and proposed to promote cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement in logistics [8]. - The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for October 27, with central bank and regulatory leaders attending and relevant policies to be released [8]. - In the first three quarters, national fiscal revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance will arrange 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit for local use and will advance the release of the new local government debt limit for 2026 [9]. - NVIDIA has completely left the Chinese market due to US export controls [9]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit and margin ratio of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [9]. - US President Trump admitted that the strategy of threatening China with high tariffs is unsustainable and may impact the US economy [9]. - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts from November 1 [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined on Friday, with popular sectors such as new energy and AI performing weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index also declined [12]. - Inflation data was basically in line with expectations. Food prices dragged down CPI, with pork prices dropping 17.0%. Core CPI rose to 1.0%. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and domestic oil - related industries' prices declined due to falling international oil prices [12]. - Financial data showed that social financing continued to decline, M2 decreased significantly, while M1 increased substantially, and credit was weak. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be loosened in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12][13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was moderately loose, and the bond market was optimistic due to concerns about the US credit market. Inflation and financial data were similar to those of stock index futures. It is recommended to adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [14][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - The improvement in steel apparent demand led to a small rebound in black commodities, but market transactions were weak, and prices remained weak. Considering macro factors, trade frictions may cool down, and the impact of policies before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is limited. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [15]. - In terms of supply - demand, real - estate sales and new construction were weak, infrastructure projects had capital pressure, and overall building material demand was weak. However, the demand for rolled plates was acceptable, but high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affected steel valuations. Steel may experience shock adjustments, and iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips [15][16]. Coal and Coke - Short - term coal and coke supply gradually recovered, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions still existed, and futures prices continued to fluctuate at high levels. Under policy constraints, coal supply contraction expectations were strengthened, but weak steel mill profits and less - than - ideal peak - season demand restricted the upward space. Double - coke prices may continue to be shock - strong in the short term [17]. Ferroalloys - On the 17th, ferrosilicon fluctuated widely at high levels, and ferromanganese silicon's center moved further down. From the perspective of supply - demand and cost support, ferrosilicon was stronger than ferromanganese silicon. The reasonable valuation range of the 01 spread between the two was between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no clear unilateral strategy [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, market risk aversion increased. Aluminum demand was resilient, and inventory was good. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina had some production cuts due to losses, but the total output and inventory were still high. It is expected to continue to bottom out, and it is recommended to sell on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [21]. Shanghai Zinc - On the night of the 17th, Shanghai zinc prices weakened. The main reasons were repeated domestic inventories and lack of market guidance, and spot transactions were poor. Overseas prices were strong due to the continuous decline of LME inventories. It is recommended to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply showed an increasing trend, and short - term destocking supported prices. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range due to the expected increase in production by leading manufacturers and the expected reduction in production by polysilicon manufacturers during the dry season. Polysilicon's spot price was firm, and it is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range, with the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - ICE cotton prices rebounded slightly due to signs of easing trade tensions, but demand concerns still existed due to the US government shutdown. Domestic cotton prices rebounded due to rising raw cotton prices, but supply pressure limited the rebound space. It is recommended to sell on rallies [26][27]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices fell under pressure, and domestic sugar prices were under pressure due to global sugar supply surplus and increased domestic imports. However, the cost provided some support. It is recommended to use a short - selling rolling strategy [27][28]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable and weak, and futures prices continued to decline slightly. The high inventory of laying hens and slow capacity reduction made it difficult to change the supply - demand pattern in the short term. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [29][30]. Apples - The prices of late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions were stable, and the futures market oscillated strongly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [30][31]. Corn - The decline in domestic corn spot prices slowed down, and futures prices rose and then fell. New - season corn supply increased, putting pressure on prices. However, purchases by some state - owned grain depots may support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [31][32]. Red Dates - The market price of red dates was stable, and the futures market showed a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. Pigs - Pig prices fluctuated at the bottom. Supply pressure continued, but factors stabilizing prices increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [34]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Although the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and international oil prices rose. However, due to increasing supply and weakening demand, oil prices are expected to decline steadily. It is recommended to hold existing short positions [34][35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue to fluctuate with oil prices [36][37]. Plastics - Polyolefins had high supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to reduce short positions at the current low - valuation level and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [38]. Rubber - The international economic outlook was uncertain, and the commodity sector was weak. NR was relatively stronger than RU due to warehouse - receipt issues. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and consider selling call options on RU after a rebound [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to the game around the arrival of Iranian goods. Although the current situation is weak, there are positive factors such as winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for a rebound to enter long positions [40][42]. Caustic Soda - In the spot market, the prices of different concentrations of caustic soda in Shandong changed differently, and the futures market declined due to rumors of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a shock - strong strategy [40][41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The market was cautious due to uncertainties before the Sino - US summit. Asphalt's fundamentals were stable, and it is expected to follow oil prices [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester product prices declined due to rising Sino - US trade tensions and falling oil prices. Although trade tensions may ease, the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain pessimistic in the long term [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was expected to weaken. It is recommended to maintain a short - term weak strategy relative to crude oil and a long - term short strategy [45]. Paper - related Industries Offset Printing Paper - In the off - season, factory ex - factory prices were lowered, and market transactions were based on rigid demand. With the resumption of production by Chenming, supply may be excessive, but the low - valuation futures market may support prices. It is recommended to try long positions near the production cost or sell put options [46]. Pulp - Pulp spot prices were stable. European inventory increased, and consumption also changed. The futures market was under pressure but had some support. It is recommended to observe port destocking and spot transactions and consider buying long - term 01 contracts on dips [47]. Logs - Log spot prices were stable, but demand from sawmills was weak. Supply pressure increased due to expected concentrated arrivals. It is recommended to observe the market and be cautious when trading [48]. Other Industries Urea - Urea spot prices were stable, and the market was weak. Futures prices were relatively strong due to expectations of increased export quotas. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The inventory of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber increased, and prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [50].