二 五 2026 年 2 月 1 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有 所回落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有所回 落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 2. 流动性监控与曲线跟踪 ...

转自：京报网_北京日报官方网站 #特朗普预计沃什轻松过关#【#特朗普希望沃什降息#】据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地 时间1月31日称，他预计自己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表 示希望沃什实施降息。"他是一个非常'高质量'的人选。他应该毫无困难就能通过。"特朗普在总统专 机"空军一号"上对记者说，并暗示沃什可能获得一些民主党人支持。报道援引特朗普的话称，他希望沃 什实施降息，但尚未收到任何承诺。"我希望他（沃什）能降息。我是说，如果你在电视上看到他，你 知道，因为我会看（他的）采访和声明，我希望他能降息。但你知道，他最终得做他自己想做的 事。"特朗普说。在一名记者追问下，特朗普补充说，"不，没有（收到）承诺。我不想那样做。我想如 果我愿意的话，我也可以那样做，但我没有做"。特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美 联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美 联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。《国会 山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名， ...

在一名记者追问下，特朗普补充说，"不，没有（收到）承诺。我不想那样做。我想如果我愿意的话， 我也可以那样做，但我没有做"。 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什 2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近 年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 《国会山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名，因为特朗普政府对美联储的刑事 调查以及削弱其独立性的威胁已激怒民主党人。据悉，一些国会参议员正试图让美联储免受政治压力的 影响。共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·蒂利斯1月30日说，尽管沃什是合格的人选，但由于司法部正对鲍威尔 进行刑事调查，"他会反对确认任何美联储相关提名，包括美联储主席职位"。 《国会山报》称，特朗普对此表示，他愿等到蒂利斯卸任后再确认相关提名，"我的意思是，他（蒂利 斯）将因为某些原因离开参议院，因为他要求的事情没实现，所以这就是其中的原因之一"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但其美联储理事职位任期将持续至2028年1月底。特 朗普在其首个总统任期里就曾多次批评鲍 ...

【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月31日称，他预计自 己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表示希望沃什实施降息。 特朗普（左）和凯文·沃什。资料图 图自美媒 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什 2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近 年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 《国会山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名，因为特朗普政府对美联储的刑事 调查以及削弱其独立性的威胁已激怒民主党人。据悉，一些国会参议员正试图让美联储免受政治压力的 影响。共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·蒂利斯1月30日说，尽管沃什是合格的人选，但由于司法部正对鲍威尔 进行刑事调查，"他会反对确认任何美联储相关提名，包括美联储主席职位"。 《国会山报》称，特朗普对此表示，他愿等到蒂利斯卸任后再确认相关提名，"我的意思是，他（蒂利 斯）将因为某些原因离开参议院，因为他要求的事情没实现，所以这就是其中的原因之一"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump is expected to reshape the Fed's policies, leading to a potential "Warsh Era" characterized by a mix of cautious rate cuts and a strong emphasis on maintaining the Fed's independence [1][3][40]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Candidate Dynamics - The nomination process for the Fed Chair has been lengthy, reflecting Trump's careful consideration of loyalty, rate cut stance, policy reputation, reform agenda, and Wall Street influence [1][5]. - Market reactions to different candidates have varied significantly, with Warsh's nomination leading to a "tightening trade," resulting in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [2][16]. - The market's perception of candidate independence has influenced trading patterns, with Warsh's rising probability correlating with a shift towards tightening [2][16]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Stance - Warsh is characterized as a "moderate dove" on rate cuts but hawkish on inflation and balance sheet reduction, emphasizing the need for Fed independence [3][40]. - His approach suggests a combination of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, advocating for a return to a "scarce reserves" framework from the current "ample reserves" framework [3][44]. - Warsh's stance on inflation indicates a belief that it is primarily driven by Fed policy missteps rather than external factors, advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts [40][41]. Group 3: Dollar and Market Implications - The dollar's strength is seen as a critical factor, with Warsh aiming to reshape the relationship between the dollar and gold prices [4][49]. - The upcoming Senate confirmation process for Warsh is expected to be smoother due to his dual experience in Wall Street and the Fed, although the content of the hearings will be crucial for future policy direction [4][49][51]. - The potential for a "weak dollar" narrative to be challenged under Warsh's leadership raises questions about the Fed's ability to restore dollar credibility [4][54].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - A restaurant in Chongqing was found to be using "yin-yang menus," charging different prices based on customers' accents, leading to accusations of overcharging tourists [3][6]. Regulatory Response - The Chongqing Shapingba District Market Supervision Administration confirmed the restaurant's misconduct and ordered it to cease operations and refund customers [6]. - The administration emphasized a zero-tolerance policy towards actions that harm consumer rights and pledged to enhance market regulation efforts [6]. Consumer Protection - The incident has sparked public concern regarding consumer rights and fair pricing practices in the hospitality industry [3][6].

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has led to a significant appreciation of the euro, with the exchange rate reaching 1.19 against the dollar as of January 31, 2023, and briefly surpassing 1.20, the highest level since June 2021. The euro has appreciated approximately 14.4% over the past year, driven by uncertainties in US economic policy and investor risk aversion [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have expressed concerns about the rapid appreciation of the euro, indicating that further increases in the exchange rate could complicate policy operations. The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, noted that a stronger euro could further suppress price growth, which is already below the ECB's 2% target [1][2] - The appreciation of the euro has had a tangible impact on European exports and economic growth, with Eurostat reporting a 3.4% year-on-year decline in eurozone exports to other countries, amounting to approximately €240.2 billion in November 2025. The trade surplus has also decreased from €15.4 billion in November 2024 to €9.9 billion [2] Group 2 - The euro's appreciation is directly weakening the competitiveness of European manufacturing exports, which is a significant factor affecting the current economic recovery in Europe. Countries with high export dependence, such as Germany, are experiencing more pronounced effects, with the German government acknowledging the pressure on product exports due to the weaker dollar [2] - The weak dollar is also creating potential pressures on the eurozone economy through financial channels, with concerns about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency. The ECB is facing new challenges as long-term interest rates in Europe exceed nominal economic growth rates, leading to increased capital inflows into the eurozone and further euro appreciation [3] - Forecasts indicate that the euro will continue to face upward pressure, with Morgan Stanley predicting that the euro could reach 1.23 against the dollar by the second quarter of 2026. An increase of 5% in the euro's value could reduce the MSCI Europe Index's annual returns by approximately 1.5% to 2% and decrease eurozone exports by about 1.5%, potentially cutting economic growth by 0.3% [4]

Group 1 - A restaurant in Chongqing was reported to use "yin-yang menus," charging different prices based on customers' accents, leading to allegations of overcharging tourists [3][6] - The Chongqing Shapingba District Market Supervision Administration confirmed the restaurant's violations and ordered it to cease operations and refund customers [6][4] - The administration emphasized a zero-tolerance policy towards actions that harm consumer rights and pledged to enhance market regulation efforts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve has prompted a reassessment of market expectations regarding monetary policy, particularly due to his advocacy for significant reductions in the central bank's balance sheet, which contrasts with President Trump's desire to lower long-term borrowing costs [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Long-term Treasury yields rose, with the spread between 30-year and 2-year Treasury yields widening to 1.35 percentage points, nearing the highest level since 2021 [1]. - Major asset management firms interpret the market volatility as a reflection of traders digesting Warsh's recent statements criticizing the Fed's large-scale bond purchases during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [1]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Stance - Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, has been a prominent critic of the Fed's quantitative easing policies, which peaked with nearly $9 trillion in assets [5]. - He argues that a large balance sheet distorts asset prices and may entrench inflationary pressures, while also acknowledging the need for lower policy rates due to economic downturn risks [5]. - In a widely noted speech, Warsh indicated that the Fed has been the primary buyer of U.S. government debt since 2008, reflecting its recognition of the economy's growing needs [5]. Group 3: Perspectives from Influential Investors - Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, a long-time mentor of Warsh, stated that Warsh is not permanently "hawkish" and has shown flexibility in his monetary policy views [4][6]. - Druckenmiller emphasized that Warsh's approach to monetary policy is open to balancing growth without triggering inflation, particularly in the context of advancements in artificial intelligence [6][7]. Group 4: Policy Coordination Concerns - Concerns arise regarding the potential contradictions in Warsh's advocacy for lowering short-term rates while simultaneously pursuing a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet amid rising government debt and persistent inflation [7]. - Druckenmiller noted that effective coordination between the Treasury and the Fed is crucial, especially with Warsh's nomination potentially influencing economic policy discussions [8].

转自：扬子晚报 如果要给2026年1月的全球市场选一个最具冲击力的画面，那一定是黄金、白银的集体闪崩。 现货黄金盘中一度暴跌超12%，创下 40年来最大单日跌幅，现货白银盘中一度暴跌超过36%，创历史最 大日内跌幅，黄金、白银矿业股全线腰斩式下跌，多只个股单日跌超10%。 但真正冷静下来，你会发现：这更像是一场"情绪与预期"的集中释放，而不是趋势的终结。 先说结论：不是一个因素，而是多重因素叠加，引爆了获利盘。 直接导火索，是美元突然强势反弹。彭博社给出的解释非常清晰，美元走强，是这次金银暴跌的直接原 因。 而美元反弹的核心触发点，来自一条消息：特朗普政府正式确认，提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下 一任美联储主席。 沃什以对通胀极度警惕、立场偏鹰著称，这一人选迅速改变了市场对未来货币政策的定价。 结果就是美元指数单日大涨约0.9%，创下去年7月以来最大单日涨幅，实际利率预期上行，贵金属遭遇 集中抛售。 别忘了一个背景，在暴跌之前，贵金属已经连续数月处于高位震荡、资金高度拥挤的状态。 市场本就存在强烈的回调需求，多重因素只是点燃了获利了结。 换句话说，这不是逻辑被否定，而是仓位被迫重置。 表面看，跌的是金银，但 ...