一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行行长潘功胜：继续维护好金融市场平稳运行，支持资本市场稳定发展】1月22日，央行行长潘功胜在接受 采访时表示，2026年，央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币 政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造 良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。潘功胜谈到，总量政策方面，灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。央行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成 本低位运行。结构性政策方面，央行已在今年年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对结构性货币政策工具的政策 要素作了优化完善。 【央行连续11个月加量操作MLF，加码中长期资金投放】央行1月22日发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银 行体系流动性充裕，1月23日，将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于本月2000亿元MLF到期，央行1月 ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 锌：具备向上弹性 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24400 | 0.21% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3175 | 0.00% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 131273 | -14813 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10031 | -1448 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118558 | -3135 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 228807 | -649 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 55 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -40.12 | 3.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical risks and changing monetary policies, has led to significant price increases in the domestic gold market, with major brands reaching around 1500 yuan per gram [1][3]. Group 1: Price Surge - On January 21, 2026, the price of gold jewelry in China jumped to 1498 yuan per gram, with some brands exceeding 1500 yuan per gram [1][3]. - The international gold price has reached a historic high of 4842 USD per ounce, reflecting a substantial increase [1][3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical risks, such as the threat of increased tariffs by the U.S. on Europe, have heightened global risk aversion, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Changes in monetary policy, including interest rate declines and shifts in the Federal Reserve's leadership, are supporting the macro environment for gold [5]. - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves to counter credit crises, which is bolstering gold prices [5]. - Tight supply of physical gold is also contributing to the price increase, with analysts suggesting that the bullish trend in gold may continue [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The high gold prices have led to a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with a decline in gold jewelry consumption by 32.5% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 24.55% [7]. - Consumers are increasingly valuing gold for its financial attributes rather than just as a decorative item, with younger generations favoring innovative designs and materials [7]. Group 4: Industry Transformation - The high gold prices are reshaping the jewelry industry in China, with a focus on hard gold becoming popular among younger consumers [9]. - Traditional gold markets are maturing, and brands are leveraging craftsmanship and cultural elements to attract high-spending consumers [9]. - Collaborations with popular IPs have emerged as a trend, appealing to younger demographics [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach 4800 USD per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, while Citic Securities is more optimistic, forecasting prices could hit 5000 USD per ounce [11][13]. - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank demand will continue to influence the gold market [13].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Industries No investment ratings for industries are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The US economy remains strong, boosting silver. However, short - term upward momentum for silver is limited, and the interaction between gold and silver should be monitored [1]. - Domestic methanol has high production but falling downstream demand. Port inventory has slightly increased, and the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals of coking coal will gradually improve, and the spot price has upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The supply of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Steel demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues. It is recommended to wait and see for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are likely to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal will follow the external market, and it lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to strengthen with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Gold has risen again due to geopolitical events, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of copper are weak, and it is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [8]. - The international oil price has fallen, and there is currently no significant upward driving force in the crude oil market [9]. - PTA supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, but the inventory build - up is limited, and it mainly follows raw material price fluctuations [11]. - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. - The supply - demand of aluminum is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term with new production capacity pressure and a decline in high - level inventory [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: The US GDP growth, inflation data, and employment situation show a strong economy, which boosts silver. Long - term bullish, short - term upward momentum is limited [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical events such as the Greenland issue have led to an increase in gold prices. Excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, US inventory has increased, and the market lacks upward driving force. Short - term trading is appropriate [9]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic production, falling downstream demand, rising port inventory. Expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, inventory build - up is limited, and it follows raw material price fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, but the price is relatively firm. Expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: New production capacity pressure, high - level inventory decline, and expected short - term fluctuations [14][15]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to wait for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Follows the external market in the short term, lacks a clear direction. Recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Supply is shrinking overseas, but there is pressure from imports and inventory. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, fundamentals will improve, spot price has upward momentum, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - **Rebar**: Demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 23, 2026, and the trend of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It will also maintain the stability of the financial market and support the capital market [5]. - The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [5]. - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [5]. - Six major state - owned banks will implement the fiscal discount policy for personal consumer loans, and the actual interest rate for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range [6]. - China will conduct a pilot program to extend the second - round land contracts by 30 years on a provincial - wide basis this year [6]. - From January 1, 2026, a project to provide pension service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people will be implemented nationwide [6]. - The 2026 national college entrance examination will be held on June 7 and 8, and efforts will be made to optimize the discipline and major settings [6]. - In December 2025, the unemployment rates of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 3.9% respectively [7]. - The US 2025 Q3 GDP final annualized quarterly growth was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November met expectations. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [7]. - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,900/oz to $5,400/oz [7]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil futures fell. London base metals generally rose [7][8]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different performances. The short - term downward pressure of IF2603 and IH2603 increased slightly, while IC2603 and IM2603 showed a slight upward trend [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will be mostly in a strong or moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, the stock index futures will be in a strong oscillation [13]. Gold Futures - On January 22, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures had a slight downward oscillation. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased slightly [29]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of gold futures will be in a moderately strong oscillation and will reach a record high. On January 23, AU2604 will be in a strong oscillation and may reach a new high [29][30]. Silver Futures - On January 22, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, AG2604 will be in a moderately strong oscillation and may reach a new high [33][34]. Copper Futures - On January 21, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures had a slight downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 22, CU2603 will be in a weak oscillation [39]. Tin Futures - On January 22, the main contract SN2603 of tin futures had a downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, SN2603 will be in a strong oscillation [42]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 22, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, its main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, LC2605 will be in a wide - range strong oscillation [48][49]. Coking Coal Futures - On January 22, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures had a slight upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [51]. Glass Futures - On January 22, the main contract FG605 of glass futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [57][58]. Soda Ash Futures - On January 22, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [62]. PTA Futures - On January 22, the main contract TA605 of PTA futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [68]. PVC Futures - On January 22, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [70]. Methanol Futures - On January 22, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [71]. Soybean Meal Futures - On January 22, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a weak oscillation [73]. Natural Rubber Futures - On January 22, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a moderately strong oscillation [76].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 宏观分析 国内：央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。央行将于1月23日开展9000亿元MLF 操作。鉴于1月有2000亿元MLF到期，央行本次通过MLF操作净投放7000亿元，为连续11个月加量续 作，且较上个月净投放规模1000亿元大幅增加。 国际：美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗普 还威胁称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。对 于美联储主席人选，特朗普表示，很快就会公布，自己心中已有人选，已结束对美联储主席候选人的面 试。美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上周 初请失业金人数20万人，低于预期的21万人。 贵金属 上一个交易日COMEX黄金期货涨2.09%报4938.40 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国Q3实际GDP季环比终值 小幅上修至4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心PCE通胀保持在2.9%；美11月PCE物价指数同比2.8%，环比 涨0.2%，均符合预期，通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME库存增加8850吨至168250 吨；Comex库存增加4031吨至507437吨；SHFE铜仓单下降2408吨至143173吨，BC铜下降75吨至10685 吨。此前提到，当前国内铜需求进入淡季，累库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业内的分歧，单从产业现 状和基本面来去看也存在调整的需求。但从贵金属板块表现来看，资金情绪依然高涨是较强的支撑因 素，对铜或有一定溢出效应。短期市场不确定性较高，春节前宜谨慎看待，但中期铜价上行趋势依然不 会改变，注重操作节奏。 镍&不锈钢： （朱希，从业资格号：F03109968； ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - On January 23, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2]. - US President Trump said he would take "major retaliatory measures" if European countries sold US assets due to his tariff threats [2]. - In mid - January, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 0.3% from the previous period [2]. - The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in January is about 1.8 million, a 20.4% decrease from the previous month and a 0.3% increase year - on - year, with new energy retail reaching about 800,000 and a penetration rate of about 44.4% [2]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include crude oil, coking coal, coke, silver, and styrene [3]. - Night - session performance of commodity futures: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.98%, precious metals rose 38.08%, oilseeds and fats rose 7.87%, soft commodities rose 2.69%, non - ferrous metals rose 24.46%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 9.34%, energy rose 2.13%, chemicals rose 9.52%, grains rose 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [3]. 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - Date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.08, - 0.11, 0.09 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | | | CSI 500 | 1.12 | 11.71 | 11.71 | | | S&P 500 | 1.16 | 0.44 | 0.44 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.37 | 3.72 | 3.72 | | | German DAX | - 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.41 | 4.84 | 4.84 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.11 | 2.08 | 2.08 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.32 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.01 | - 0.02 | - 0.02 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.53 | 2.53 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.43 | 5.43 | 5.43 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.47 | 11.92 | 11.92 | | | LME Copper | 0.06 | 2.12 | 2.12 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.90 | 24.26 | 24.26 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.51 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 34.38 | 34.38 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and other commodities, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6].

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China, led by Pan Gongsheng, will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1] - There is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, with an emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity [1] Technology Development - Fudan University researchers have successfully developed "fiber chips," achieving large-scale integrated circuit preparation within flexible polymer fibers, with a transistor density of 100,000 per cm [1] - The technology allows for efficient interconnection of transistors and other electronic components, enabling both digital and analog circuit functions [1] Company News - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO review status has changed to "inquired" on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] - Yushu Technology clarified that its actual shipment of humanoid robots in 2025 will exceed 5,500 units, with over 6,500 units expected to be produced [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments are promoting the participation of retail pharmaceutical companies in centralized drug procurement [3] Individual Company Performance - CATL launched a mass-produced sodium-ion battery for light commercial vehicles, capable of operating in extreme cold conditions [4] - Zhaoyi Innovation expects a net profit of approximately 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, a 46% increase year-on-year, with revenue projected at 9.203 billion yuan, a 25% increase [4] - Strong One Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58% to 71% in 2025, driven by strong orders from major clients in the communication network and AI computing sectors [5] - Changda Technology plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a functional IC packaging substrate project to enhance its competitiveness in the high-end integrated circuit field [6] - Founder Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 67% to 98% in 2025, focusing on high-value business orders in AI servers and high-speed optical modules [7]