Core Viewpoint - Companies are utilizing the "first sale rule" to mitigate the impact of high tariffs and reduce import costs, a strategy that has resurfaced due to recent tariff policies [1][2]. Group 1: Mechanism of the First Sale Rule - The "first sale rule" allows U.S. companies to use the price of the first transaction (e.g., from a factory to a middleman) for customs duties instead of the final sale price [1][2]. - This rule has been in existence since 1988 but gained renewed attention following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration starting in 2018 [2][3]. - To utilize this rule, companies must meet four conditions: multiple transactions, independent parties, proof of initial export intent, and documentation of the first sale price [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges and Trust Issues - Obtaining the initial price data is challenging, as middlemen may be reluctant to disclose their purchase prices due to profit confidentiality [4]. - Trust between suppliers and clients is crucial for the successful application of the first sale rule, as cooperation is needed to share sensitive pricing information [5]. Group 3: Adoption by Companies - High-end consumer goods and luxury brands are particularly suited to benefit from the first sale rule due to their high margins and significant price differences [6]. - Companies like Moncler have publicly acknowledged the substantial cost benefits derived from using the first sale rule, with savings being considerable compared to retail prices [6]. - Other companies, such as Kuros Biosciences and Traeger, are also adapting their operational structures to comply with the first sale rule to minimize tariff costs [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce due to ongoing uncertainties such as Trump's trade war, geopolitical risks, and the state of U.S. finances, which have reignited demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in gold price target reflects the impact of geopolitical tensions and trade policies on market sentiment [1] - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to increase as uncertainties persist in the global economic landscape [1] - Citigroup's revised target indicates a significant bullish outlook on gold prices in the near term [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2506） | 最新 3879.6 | 环比 数据指标 -2.0↓ IF次主力合约（2509） | 最新 3807.6 | 环比 -0.8↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2506） | 2715.4 | +2.6↑ IH次主力合约（2509） | 2677.2 | +1.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2506） | 5614.8 | -39.6↓ IC次主力合约（2509） | 5426.2 | -30.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 5950.0 | -48.6↓ IM次主力合约（2509） | 5708.2 | -46.8↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1164.2 | -4.4↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1735.2 | -39.2↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 335.2 | -9.8↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 2899.4 | -43.6↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2070.4 | -49.0↓ IM-IH当月 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing trade war on gold prices, suggesting that bullish positions may shift to a more defensive stance due to market volatility [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The trade war introduces new uncertainties that could influence gold demand and pricing dynamics [1] - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to identify potential shifts in market sentiment [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the evolving trade situation, particularly regarding gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The article hints at the possibility of a tactical shift for gold bulls, indicating a need for vigilance in monitoring market signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing US-China tariff war on trade dynamics, highlighting the resilience of Chinese exporters and the complexities of international trade negotiations amid rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions [2][6][7]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Chinese Exporters - Chinese exporters, such as Dongyi Yangshan Technology and Shuangtong Straw Company, are adapting to the fluctuating tariff environment, with some clients resuming orders despite high tariffs [3][10][11]. - The article notes that the average effective tariff rate for US imports from China is around 41%, while China's effective tariff rate on US imports is approximately 28% [5][6]. - Despite the high tariffs, the demand for Chinese products remains strong, as US consumers are likely to absorb some of the increased costs [11][14]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Market Adjustments - The article highlights a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the US, with a reported surge of nearly 300% following the announcement of tariff reductions [4][5]. - Companies are finding ways to mitigate tariff impacts, such as using DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) shipping methods, which can reduce the cost burden of tariffs [12]. - The ongoing tariff situation has led to a re-evaluation of supply chains, with some companies considering diversifying their markets beyond the US [16][18]. Group 3: Future Trade Negotiations and Economic Implications - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding future tariff negotiations, with potential for tariffs to rise again after the 90-day negotiation window [6][22]. - Experts suggest that the US-China trade conflict reflects deeper structural issues in global trade and economic governance, with calls for both nations to work collaboratively to address these challenges [7][35]. - The article warns that a prolonged trade conflict could lead to a "hard decoupling" of the US and Chinese economies, which would have significant implications for global trade [17][26].

这个周末，特朗普，又有大动作了！ 特朗普签署了四项行政命令，旨在扩大核能生产，推动核能行业的发展，相关概念股随即大幅上涨。 与此同时，特朗普强调不会削减万亿美元国防预算，展现出对军事开支的强硬立场。 此外，他提议自2025年6月1日起对欧盟实施50%关税，这一表态导致市场避险情绪升温，美股、欧股双 双下跌。 这些行动不仅可能重塑美国内外政策格局，还将对全球市场产生深远影响。 01 扩大核能 据报道，特朗普周五签署了四项行政命令，以扩大核能生产。 当天，在椭圆形办公室的签署仪式上，特朗普称核能是一个"热门行业"，并补充说，"现在是发展核能 的时候了，我们将把它做得非常大。" 特朗普签署的行政命令旨在改革美国能源部的核能研究，为能源部在联邦拥有的土地上建造核反应堆扫 清道路，彻底改革核管理委员会，并扩大美国的铀矿开采和浓缩。 行政令还呼吁美国能源部和国防部门评估重启已关闭的核电站的可行性，并探索在联邦土地和军事基地 选址反应堆。美国核监管委员会发言人Scott Burnell表示，该机构正在评估这些行政命令，并将遵守白 宫的指示。 特朗普推动核能的举措可能促进这一无排放能源的发展，核能被视为煤炭和天然气发电的气候 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by former President Trump against Harvard University and Apple, highlighting the implications of his policies on international students and the tech giant's production strategies. Group 1: Harvard University - Harvard University received a 72-hour ultimatum from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to expel all international students or risk losing federal funding, citing collaboration with the Chinese Communist Party and fostering violence and anti-Semitism [2]. - Over 6,000 international students are affected, with 43% from STEM fields, leading to a halt in 27 advanced research projects in the U.S. [2]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with universities stems from their non-compliance with his directives, leading to punitive measures against Harvard [4][5]. Group 2: Apple Inc. - Trump has targeted Apple, demanding that the company either produce in the U.S. or face a 25% tariff, which could significantly increase production costs [7]. - If Apple were to relocate production to the U.S., initial estimates suggest an investment of $22 billion, with the cost of each iPhone potentially rising by 300%, making it unaffordable for many consumers [7][10]. - The global supply chain for Apple is heavily reliant on Asian suppliers, with 97% of rare earth materials and 82% of battery components sourced from Asia, complicating any potential shift to U.S. production [8]. - A 25% tariff could lead to the closure of 30% of Apple’s retail stores, resulting in approximately 58,000 job losses [8]. - The production cost of iPhones could increase by over 50% due to tariffs and higher labor costs in the U.S., potentially leading to a profit loss of up to $33 billion for Apple [10]. - The restructuring of Apple's supply chain is fraught with challenges, as 70% of components are deeply integrated into the Chinese supply chain, making a quick transition to U.S. production difficult [12]. - If prices rise, the basic iPhone could increase from $799 to $1,142, with a significant portion of U.S. consumers likely unwilling to pay over $2,000 for a phone, risking a shift to Android devices [13].

博鳌亚洲论坛秘书长张军在日前在京举办的第十一届中国与全球化论坛上表示，在瑞士日内瓦举行的中 美经贸高层会谈的意义远超关税和贸易本身，可能成为改变美国主导游戏方式的历史性事件。 张军说，当今世界多极化趋势加速发展，转型中的世界也充满挑战和不确定性。目前最大的挑战就是美 国向全球发动关税战。 他指出，无论是从实际效果还是世界各国反应来看，美国挑起关税战都不会达到目的。因为其中有三大 严重问题，一是错误认知，二是错误算法，三是错误行为。 第三，技术革命引领时代变革。科技创新正在全方位改变人类生产生活方式，既注入新的动力，也引发 新的竞争，科技竞争成为大国博弈的前沿阵地。从关税战也可看到，全球科技生态和科技供应链布局正 在发生改变，中国成为新的创新驱动中心，全球南方正从"跟随"向"并列"甚至"领跑"转变。这种变化将 越来越多地作用于全球政治和经济生态的演变，甚至成为主要驱动力。 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：白波 张军说，当前关税战超越了纯经济范畴，必须从世界大变局的视角看待关税战，把握世界大变局的新趋 势及孕育的新机遇。事实上，关税战本身也是大变局的一部分。关税战没有产生美方预期的效果，说明 世界正在发生重大变化。关 ...

美能源行业公开抗命，中国官方点名警告李嘉诚，不要有侥幸心理。美国的能源行业为何会公开抵制政府命令？这与前期轰轰烈烈的"卖港案"又有什么联系 呢？ 据多家媒体报道，由于中美之间的关税战影响，两国之间的能源贸易受到了严重的打击，根据《纽约时报》、彭博社等媒体的报道，自从2月10日开始，中 国已经连续70天没有从美国进口哪怕一船液化天然气（LNG），创下了五年以来的最长纪录。 根据数据统计，在2023年，美国超过澳大利亚一跃成为世界最大的天然气出口国，也就是在这一年，中国船企在全球LNG船只领域的市场份额占到了35%， 也就是说中美两国原本应该在生产和运输两端各自深耕，但是现在特朗普却要横插一脚，想要打击中国在海运领域的主导地位，但是却误判了形势，遭到了 自己人的反对。 这件事情却足以给我们敲响警钟，按照特朗普的个性，他能够在美国境内对中国船只征收停靠费，那么在美国企业控制的海外港口当然也存在这种可能。这 不由得让人联想到不久前的长和与贝莱德之间的港口交易，假如当时没有国家市场监管局的紧急介入叫停了这笔交易，一旦真的由美国财团控制了位于巴拿 马运河的主要港口，那么中国的船只在通过或者停靠的时候，是不是也要被无端征收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry is facing potential cost increases due to the U.S. tariff war, particularly affecting companies reliant on foreign manufacturing [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Pharmaceutical Companies - The U.S. has threatened a 25% import tariff on foreign-made drugs, which could push domestic production but also increase costs for companies [2][3] - Companies like Amgen, Pfizer, and AbbVie are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on overseas manufacturing, especially in countries like Ireland [5][11][16] - The construction of new U.S. manufacturing facilities is costly and time-consuming, leaving companies exposed to rising costs and thin profit margins [3][10] Group 2: Company-Specific Vulnerabilities - **Amgen**: Heavily reliant on overseas production, particularly in Ireland and Singapore, which could become a liability if tariffs are imposed [7][8][9] - **Pfizer**: Significant production of top-selling drugs in Ireland and other European countries, with potential tariffs impacting about 10% of its total revenue [11][13][12] - **AbbVie**: While the company has not included tariff impacts in its guidance, analysts suggest it could face hundreds of millions in costs due to reliance on foreign manufacturing for bestsellers [17][18][19] Group 3: Financial Implications - Rising costs from tariffs could erode already thin profit margins across the pharmaceutical sector [10] - AbbVie is earmarking $10 billion for domestic manufacturing expansion over the next decade, indicating a significant financial commitment amid tariff uncertainties [20] - The company is also facing challenges in maintaining its dividend amidst ongoing patent wars and high advertising costs for its products [22]