Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates an increasing expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by comments from Fed officials suggesting that the current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and that there is no inflation issue in the U.S. [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting has surged from approximately 40% to 80% according to CME FedWatch, reflecting market sentiment towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - As a result of the heightened rate cut expectations, gold prices have risen above $4100 per ounce, with long-term drivers for gold's price increase remaining intact, including challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and ongoing global geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - Investors focusing on the gold sector are encouraged to consider gold ETFs, specifically the physical gold ETF (518800) and more flexible gold stock ETFs (517400), as potential investment opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to recover, while both domestic stocks and bonds are weak. The US economic data shows structural differentiation, with the market pricing an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. In China, policies aim to boost consumption, but the A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile, aluminum prices are expected to be favorable, alumina will continue its weak trend, and other metals and industrial products also have their respective market trends based on supply - demand and macro - economic factors [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: US data is structurally differentiated. Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million. Durable goods and core capital goods orders in September increased by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumption and stagnant economic activity. The market prices an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut, with the US dollar index falling and copper, gold, and crude oil prices rising [2]. - Domestic: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to develop e - commerce and integrate AI into the consumer goods industry. The A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. The 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields are 1.83% and 2.19% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures soared 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Weak US economic data and the possible Fed chair change support interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a December interest rate cut is 85%. Short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Platinum and palladium futures can be bought at low prices [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures rose, and LME copper approached the $11,000 resistance level. The spot market had weak trading. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumer spending and rising input costs. US PPI data is mild, and overseas institutions predict a decline in core PCE. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term copper price for China in 2026. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with resistance at $11,000 - $11,200 [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, and LME aluminum rose 2.25%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased. US economic data shows labor market resilience but also potential weakness. The market's expectation of Fed easing remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to be favorable [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, alumina futures fell 0.37%. The supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the oversupply suppresses prices. The futures price is below the average cost, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, cast aluminum alloy futures fell slightly. The aluminum price has stabilized, and the cast aluminum market is in a state of stop - falling and shock. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost provides good support [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc futures rose at night. The spot market was weak. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US reduced interest rate cut expectations, but the UK's tax - increase plan weakened the US dollar, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The supply pressure is gradually improving, but the market lacks the power for continuous rise, and zinc prices are expected to be widely volatile [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead futures were weakly volatile. The decline of LME lead dragged down Shanghai lead. The reopening of the lead ingot import window suppresses prices, but cost support and regional supply shortages limit the decline. Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin futures rose at night. The weakening of the US dollar and the political instability in the DRC support tin prices. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and inventory is expected to increase. With the approaching Fed meeting, the market sentiment may fluctuate, so be cautious about chasing up prices [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon futures were narrowly volatile. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices were widely volatile. The raw material prices rose, and the main contract has switched to 2605. The market has a strong long - short game, and lithium prices are expected to be widely volatile [17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices were volatile. The market expects an 82% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The spot market has good inquiry enthusiasm but limited trading volume. The macro - environment may boost nickel prices in the short - term [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, soda ash futures were volatile, and glass futures were strongly volatile. The supply of glass is shrinking, but the demand is weak, and inventories are rising. The supply of soda ash is tightening, but the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Prices are expected to be low and volatile [19]. 3.14 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rebounded. The cost is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures were adjusted. The demand is weak due to steel mill losses and production cuts. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [22]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures were weakly volatile. The online auction of coking coal had a high flow - rate, and the spot price was weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [23]. 3.17 Industrial Data - The report provides trading data of various metal futures on November 26, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. It also shows the changes in inventory, spot prices, and other data of different metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. [24][25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price fluctuated around $4150, slightly below the one-week high of $4173.42 reached on Wednesday, influenced by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and market expectations for a potential rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market continues to bet on the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in December, as the Beige Book did not diminish expectations for short-term easing policies [1] - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve remains a significant factor supporting gold prices, with recent reports indicating that the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett is a leading candidate to succeed Chairman Powell [1] Group 2: Key Figures - Spot gold price was around $4150 during early Asian trading on Thursday, compared to the previous high of $4173.42 [1]

行业 锌期货日报 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22350 | 22355 | 22410 | 22280 | 15 | 0.07 | 26315 | -7427 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, marking a four-day winning streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.67%, the S&P 500 up 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.82% [1] - U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with shortened trading hours on Friday [1] Employment Data and Interest Rate Expectations - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Department showed initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below the market expectation of 225,000 [3] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicated resilient high-end consumer spending, but overall consumer spending is declining [3] - Market reassessment of monetary policy led to an 83.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, up from previous forecasts [3] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Market fear has significantly eased, with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) dropping approximately 35% over four days, the largest decline since mid-April [4] - Institutional investors are buying on dips, particularly in non-essential consumer goods and healthcare sectors, while technology sector ETFs are seeing significant outflows [4] Technology Sector Trends and Analyst Views - The technology sector is experiencing a mix of divergence and rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.76% and all 30 component stocks gaining [5] - Nvidia's stock rose 1.37%, while Oracle's stock rebounded over 4% [5] - Analysts from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank maintain "buy" ratings on Nvidia and Oracle, respectively, citing long-term market dominance and overreaction to recent sell-offs [5][6] Corporate Earnings Performance - Dell Technologies reported a third-quarter revenue increase of 11% year-over-year to $27.005 billion, a record high [7] - Li Auto's third-quarter revenue fell 36.2% year-over-year to 27.4 billion yuan, with a net loss of 624 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [7]

美联储降息预期持续升温。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 9691.58 c | 82.05 | 0.85% | | 法国CAC40 | 8096.43 c | 70.63 | 0.88% | | 德国DAX | 23695.23 c | 230.60 | 0.98% | | 意大利富时MIB | 43130.32 c | 431.66 | 1.01% | | 欧元区STOXX5I | 5655.58 c | 81.67 | 1.47% | 周三国际金价走高，现货黄金站上4160美元/盎司。 降息预期升温 美联储褐皮书发布 当地时间11月26日，美股三大指数收高。道指涨314.67点，涨幅为0.67%，报47427.12点；纳指涨189.10 点，涨幅为0.82%，报23214.69点；标普500指数涨46.73点，涨幅为0.69%，报6812.61点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47427.12 | 23214.69 | 6812.61 | | 314.6 ...

中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.03%。热门中概股多数收升，唯品会涨2.54%，拼多多涨 1.58%，京东涨0.96%，理想汽车涨0.6%，新东方涨0.39%，阿里巴巴涨0.38%。禾赛跌7.37%，腾讯音乐 跌2.33%，小鹏汽车跌2.22%，百度跌1.31%，蔚来跌0.73%。 美股周三高开高走，三大指数均连涨四日，本周均有望录得较大涨幅。美国上周首次申请失业救济人数 低于预期。美联储褐皮书显示近几周美国整体消费者支出进一步下滑。延迟发布的经济数据强化了降息 预期，叠加美联储官员密集释放鸽派信号及潜在"鸽派"主席人选浮现，市场风险偏好显著升温。截至收 盘，道琼斯指数涨0.67%，标普500指数涨0.69%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.82%。 科技股多数上涨，甲骨文涨超4%，AMD涨超3%，英伟达、特斯拉、奈飞、微软涨超1%。博通涨超 3%，创历史新高。费城半导体指数涨2.76%，30只成分股全线收涨。泰瑞达涨6.98%，迈威尔科技涨 5.14%，AMD涨3.93%，阿斯麦涨3.76%，美光科技涨2.55%。 纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货当月连续合约上涨0.60美元，收于每桶58.55美元，涨幅为1.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

11月26日金价先抑后扬，多个金店金饰价格涨到1316元/克附近，2025年11月26日，各大品牌黄金零售 价格上涨，据金投网统计，目前是周生生价格最高，为1316元/克（工费另计），菜百首饰黄金价格最 低，为1280元/克（工费另计），投资金条价格每克965-1004元左右，白银价格11.87元/克。 尽管仍有"鹰派"人士担忧通胀顽固，目前通胀率仍高于2%的目标水平，摩根士丹利和摩根大通等机构 也并未完全确信降息的必要性，但市场的多头情绪依然高涨。美债净多头头寸已达到15年来的最高水 平，显示出投资者对降息前景的强烈信心。 此外，一份延迟一个多月发布的PPI数据也在此时意外亮相，为市场增添了新的变数。核心PPI涨幅创下 自去年7月以来的新低，虽然其对货币政策的影响有限，但有助于市场更准确地估算美联储最为关注的 PCE通胀指数。有预测认为，9月的核心PCE可能降至2.8%，这无疑为降息支持者提供了更多的依据。 然而，值得注意的是，当美联储在12月召开会议时，他们将面临数据滞后的挑战。最新的通胀数据将滞 后近三个月，而10月的就业数据则需等到会议结束后才能获得。这意味着，美联储在做出决策时，将不 得不依靠相对陈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is experiencing a bullish trend due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by lower-than-expected U.S. consumer data and potential dovish candidates for the Fed chair position [1][2][5] - U.S. stock index futures are collectively rising, with the S&P 500 futures up by 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 futures up over 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures up over 0.2% [5] - The dollar index has decreased by nearly 0.2%, falling below the 100 mark, while risk assets are gaining traction due to the Fed's dovish signals [2][5] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased by 2 basis points to 4.01%, while Japanese 10-year bond yields have risen to 1.815% amid interest rate hike expectations [5] - Gold prices have risen by 0.5% to $4151.21 per ounce, supported by both the expectation of rate cuts and the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [10][11] - Bitcoin has also seen an increase of 0.7%, reaching $87647.35, reflecting a broader recovery in cryptocurrency markets [5]