就在一季度经济数据发布当日，广东省政府常务会议审议《广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案》，强调 把经济政策的着力点更多转向惠民生、促消费，多措并举推动城乡居民收入增长，着力提升生育、养 育、教育、医疗、养老等民生服务水平，不断释放消费潜力。 假日、体育经济拉动消费明显 南方财经全媒体记者魏彤 广州报道 4月22日，广东省统计局发布一季度经济数据。数据显示，广东全省社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.5%，增速比1—2月份加快1.5个百分点，其中3月份增长5.8%。 想要提振消费，首要便是要稳收入，强信心。 今年3月以来，广东举办一系列活动如"百万英才汇南粤"等，吸引了更多人才聚集。大量政策措施的实 施，促进了经济循环，尤其是中央和广东省通过一系列为企纾困措施稳就业，改善居民收入不稳定的情 况，消费信心也因此建立。 在暨南大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，特区港澳经济研究所副所长谢宝剑看来，广东充分发挥人口高 度集聚的优势，在消费上持续发力，实现了消费的持续增长。一季度，广东居民人均可支配收入同比增 长4.8%。这一数据不仅体现了广东经济的逐步回暖，更暗示了背后关于消费趋势和居民生活方式的深 层变化。 广东外语外贸大学广东 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suning has reported significant growth in revenue and customer traffic due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which has stimulated consumer demand and forced supply chain upgrades [1][3][4]. Group 1: Revenue and Sales Performance - Suning's revenue for the fourth quarter reached 18.77 billion yuan, showing a notable increase compared to the previous quarters [2][3]. - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 34.35% in the fourth quarter, with in-store sales growing by 64.6% [3][4]. - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a 120% increase in store traffic since its implementation [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - The subsidy policy has shifted consumer preferences from low-cost options to higher-end products, with average transaction values increasing significantly [5][10]. - Sales of high-end appliances such as smart air conditioners and integrated kitchen appliances have surged, with year-on-year growth rates of 121%, 246%, and 215% respectively [5][6]. - Consumers are now more inclined to purchase products that maximize the subsidy benefits, often opting for items priced near the subsidy cap [10][11]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Product Efficiency - The policy has effectively phased out low-efficiency appliances, with first and second-tier energy-efficient products becoming the market standard [6][8]. - The market has seen a complete withdrawal of third and fourth-tier energy-efficient products from mainstream retail channels [6][8]. Group 4: Retail Channel Transformation - The "old-for-new" policy has transformed consumer behavior, emphasizing quality and experience over price, leading to a rise in demand for smart and integrated products [10][11]. - Physical stores are becoming the primary channel for consumers to engage with and purchase subsidized products, enhancing the shopping experience through direct interaction [10][11]. - Suning is focusing on experiential retail, with new store formats designed to enhance customer interaction and service [14][15].

第一财经资讯 . 以下文章来源于第一财经资讯 ，作者周楠 近期，野村在北京举行媒体交流会，邀请野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士分享关于中国宏观 经济的最新观点。以下为《第一财经》的专篇报道。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 关税风波持续近半 个月，其间，全球金融市场经历大幅震荡，人民币汇率波动加剧，A股市 场则先抑后 扬，在"国家队"出手稳市之后迅速回升。 "过去两个星期，国内的政策（执行）做得非常好。在前期非常关键的几天时间里，一个极为 重要的政策是，央行给'国家队'提供再贷款，这实际上就稳住了股市。"野村中国首席经济学 家陆挺表示，与此同时，近期汇市也逐步趋稳。 宏观经济方面，一季度经济数据最新出炉，多项指标表现超出市场预期，包括：一季度国内 生产总值（GDP）31.88万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%；一季度社会消费品零售 总额同比增速从前值3.7%跃升至4.6%。 下一阶段，如何进一步稳定市场、提振经济？陆挺在近期的媒体会上表示，未来需进一步稳 住股市、汇市和楼市。同时，刺激消费仍是重中之重，但在经历了两轮"以旧换新"之后，促 消费政策可转向耐用品消费之外的领域，例如，服务消费领域就具备一定的潜力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic outlook in China, highlighting the effectiveness of domestic policies in stabilizing the stock market and the overall economy amidst external pressures [4][7]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][9]. - The retail sales growth rate increased from 3.7% to 4.6% year-on-year in the same period, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4][9]. Market Stabilization - The Chinese government has implemented measures to stabilize the stock market, foreign exchange market, and real estate market, with the central bank providing re-loans to support the "national team" in stabilizing the stock market [4][6][7]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated but recovered to around 7.3 against the USD, demonstrating resilience in the currency market [7]. Consumer Stimulus - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales in various sectors, particularly in electronics, with the inclusion of mobile phones and computers in the program [9][10]. - Future consumption stimulus should focus on service sectors such as tourism, hotels, and dining, as these areas show potential for growth [6][10]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is under pressure, with both exports and real estate facing simultaneous declines for the first time [7][8]. - While some regions show signs of recovery, a nationwide stabilization in the real estate market has not yet occurred, necessitating continued support for developers [8].

近期，各大公司将陆续发布2024年年报。而我乐家居、顶固集创已率先于19、20日发布正式年报。家居新范式联想已发业绩预告的几家企业发现，作为定 制家居行业的典型代表，8家上市公司去年几乎面临了相似的业绩困局，普遍营收净利双降，下滑程度也是近十年来罕见的。那各家都在想哪些应对办 法，后市预估如何？ | 品牌简称 | 净利润 | 同比变化 | 营业收入 | 同比变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧派家居 | 23.34~26.08亿元 | 減少5%~15% | 182.26~205.04 亿元 | 減少10%~20% | | 索菲亚 | 家居新 西式 13.24~14.5亿元 | 5%~15% | 104.9~116.66 亿元 | 減少10%~0% | | 尚品宅配 | 亏损1.8~2.2亿元 | 上年盈利 6484.54万元 | HOFUR 家居新正式 | | | 志邦家居 | 4.35亿元 | -26.86% | 55.97亿元 | -8.49% | | 家居葡 已式 好莱客 | 0.68~0.90万元 | 减少 | | | | | | 58.57%~68.70% ...

当月家用空调产量2,485万台，同比+13.94%，销量2,434万台，同比+8.54%，其中内销1,278万台，同比 +3.46%，出口1,157万台，同比+14.82%，期末库存1,726万台，同比+1.56%;分公司，格力当月销量同比 +3.37%(内销+1.64%，出口+7.14%);美的销量同比+5.43%(内销+1.54%，出口+9.38%);海尔同比+12.61% (内销+5.88%，出口+31.67%);海信同比+6.10%(内销-4.00%，出口+15.29%);长虹同比+53.06%(内销 +61.29%，出口+38.89%);TCL同比+6.40%(内销-5.00%，出口+11.76%)。内销稳健，符合预期 2025年3月空调内销出货同比+3%，规模同期新高，2023/2024年同期分别+19%/+18%，基数偏高，保持 稳健;Q1内销同比+6%，较2021年同期CAGR+10%。整体看，Q1空调内销出货稳健为主，3月或仍受岁 末年初政策衔接节奏影响，2024Q4内销同比+24%，对后续或有虹吸。终端方面，3月龙头安装卡基数 走低，较1-2月有所提速，奥维监测3月空调线上零售量/价分别同 ...

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has been strengthened and expanded this year, leading to rapid growth in green and smart consumption, enhancing market vitality [1] - Consumers are benefiting from significant subsidies, such as a total of 20,000 yuan in subsidies for a 250,000 yuan vehicle, which includes national and store-specific discounts [1] - Traditional home appliances are being upgraded through AI technology, enhancing user experience and promoting the development of smart home ecosystems [1] Group 2 - Sales in the refrigerator, washing machine, television, and air conditioning sectors, particularly in smart and green appliances, have seen significant increases since the introduction of national subsidies [2] - Market trends indicate that smart upgrades are driving sustained growth in the consumer market, opening up new high-growth consumption avenues and further releasing consumer potential [2]

Group 1: Business Strategies and Initiatives - The company launched the "Foreign Trade Quality Products Revitalization Plan" to support foreign trade enterprises in expanding into the domestic market, providing a fast online store setup process and operational training [3][9][30] - The focus on community services includes the "Renewal Service Station" and "Convenient Service Station," aiming to create a 15-minute service circle for consumers [3][32] - The company plans to enhance its self-operated capabilities by optimizing product supply chains and focusing on high-quality, cost-effective products [27][20] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - By the end of 2024, the sales proportion of JSAV exclusive products reached 22.6%, contributing to an increase in gross margin and profitability [5] - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 6.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 34.35% in the fourth quarter [15][26] - The company aims to leverage the expansion of the old-for-new policy, increasing the number of supported product categories from 8 to 12, including digital products [26][15] Group 3: Customer Engagement and Services - The introduction of the "Bee Card" offers various consumer benefits, including a 365-day return policy and free maintenance services [11][30] - The company emphasizes transparent service pricing through its platforms, ensuring consumers are informed about service costs [8] - The "Super Member" program provides exclusive discounts and benefits, enhancing customer loyalty and engagement [30][42] Group 4: Technological Integration and Innovation - The company is investing in AI and digital technologies to improve management efficiency and reduce operational costs [9][22] - The implementation of AI assistants and digital guide screens in stores aims to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [22] - The company is actively collaborating with brands to launch innovative products, responding to market trends and consumer demands [24][29] Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges such as insufficient internal growth momentum and increasing competition in the home appliance market [12] - To address debt issues, the company is focusing on restoring partnerships with suppliers and negotiating payment terms [14][24] - The strategic direction for the next five years includes strengthening retail service capabilities and enhancing brand reputation [33][40]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on key sectors such as **real estate**, **consumption**, and **foreign trade**. Key Points and Arguments Economic Performance - The overall economic fundamentals in China have not significantly changed compared to last year, with manufacturing PMI showing a recovery trend since Q4 of the previous year, but not exceeding last year's levels [1][2] - Real estate performance has shown resilience, particularly in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, with transaction growth noted in 15 cities [1][2] - The number of listings in the real estate market has rebounded significantly, although second to fifth-tier cities have shown a temporary rebound followed by a decline [2] Consumption Trends - Consumption during the Spring Festival has highlighted structural strengths, particularly in tourism and entertainment, with notable increases in travel revenue and box office sales [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver of consumption since its implementation in September last year, leading to a notable increase in sales for related products [4][5] - The overall consumption growth is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with projections indicating a potential increase in retail sales growth by 1.3% to 2.7% this year [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales area since June last year, and a corresponding reduction in price declines observed since November [7][8] - The performance of second-hand homes is outpacing new homes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8] - The financial health of real estate companies remains a concern, with many showing a contraction in cash flow and overall financial stability [9][10] Foreign Trade and External Factors - The impact of foreign trade has been more optimistic than previously anticipated, with expectations of extended "export rush" effects due to tariff policies [11][12] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on GDP is relatively minor, with estimates suggesting only a 0.16% impact from the latest tariff increases [12][14] - The depreciation of the RMB may serve as a buffer against tariff impacts, with a controlled depreciation expected to mitigate some of the adverse effects [14][15] Price Trends and Inflation - Price levels are expected to remain low, with potential for recovery in service prices, particularly in tourism and household services [17][19] - The current capacity utilization rates are low, which historically correlates with negative PPI growth, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate production [18][19] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy framework is characterized by a clear focus on high-quality development, with proactive measures anticipated to support consumption and address capacity issues [20][21] - Fiscal policy is expected to see an increase in deficit rates and spending, with projections indicating a rise in the deficit to between 5.6 trillion to 6.4 trillion yuan [23][24] - The government is likely to enhance transfer payments to local governments to alleviate fiscal pressures and support basic public services [27] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the Chinese economy remains cautious but with some optimistic indicators, particularly in consumption and real estate stabilization. The effectiveness of policy measures in addressing structural issues will be critical for sustained economic growth [20][21][39]